Crowley Political Report

By Brian E. Crowley

Jeb Bush has said he has no intention of voting for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. It is a silly and disturbing notion.

Florida’s 29 electoral votes will decide whether Trump or Clinton will go to the White House. It will be an extremely close race with a Florida victory squeezed out by the smallest of margins. Recent polls suggest a slight Trump lead or a statistical tie.

There is a very reasonable chance that Trump could win Florida and with it the White House. If you merely look at the race in the style of the soulless Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, a Trump victory is merely a win for the GOP and the name on the White House mailbox matters little as long as it belongs to a Republican.

Some Florida Republicans are repulsed by the idea of Trump leading the GOP and they have actively, if so far ineffectively, been part of the NeverTrump movement.

Meanwhile, Jeb Bush has been largely silent. He will tweet on occasion about issues that interest him. Bush took some time off to do a skit with Jimmy Kimmel for a pre-Emmy Award show. (He was very good, acting an out of work Uber driver).

Sitting on the sidelines since quitting his own presidential bid, Bush seems to be content essentially telling voters – you picked a lunatic over me, live with it.

The middle child of the Bush family needs to get over it and step up for Florida and his party. It is unconscionable that Jeb Bush would abandon the party when it needs him most. His family has been deeply involved in the GOP since his grandfather, Prescott Bush, was elected to the U.S. Senate from Connecticut in 1952.

If he believes, as many establishment Republicans do, that Trump would be the destruction of the GOP, how can Bush remain idle? Was his campaign for president an ego-trip or a belief that Republican Party principles are better for the future of the nation?

Late Monday night, it was reported by CNN, Politico and others that Bush’s father, former President George Bush, told former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend he plans to vote for Clinton.

The elder Bush, 92, over the years has developed a close relationship with former President Bill Clinton, the man who defeated him in 1992. Former President George W. Bush also has a close relationship with Clinton often joking that he is his “brother from another mother.”

Despite these public friendships between the Bush and Clinton families, Jeb is the moody outsider who can’t bring himself to publicly support Hillary Clinton.

Yet, perhaps the last, most notable public service Bush could perform in this election would be to endorse Hillary Clinton.

As already stated, Florida will be won by a small percentage of votes. Bush does not have the political power in the Sunshine State he once held, but in a race this close, he could have an impact. His endorsement could free others to publicly abandon Trump – perhaps even U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio who still harbors presidential ambitions.

Jennifer Rubin, a conservative columnist for the Washington Post and a Bush admirer, wrote last week:

Donald Trump's campaign released it first campaign ad talking about immigration and Hillary Clinton. The ad is expected to appear in key Florida markets, particularly in Orlando and the Tampa Bay area.

From a Trump news release:

The new ad provides a stark comparison between Hillary Clinton’s reality in which Americans are victims of the rigged system in Washington that compromises our borders, jeopardizes our jobs, and flouts our laws, and Mr. Trump’s vision for our country in which we secure our borders and put American jobs and safety first.

The campaign will spend $4.8 million dollars to air this ad and more on television stations over the next 10 days in the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida.

Here is a transcript provided by the campaign:

VO: In Hillary Clinton’s America:

The system stays rigged against Americans.

Syrian refugees flood in.

Illegal immigrants convicted of committing crimes get to stay.

Collecting Social Security benefits, skipping the line.

Our border open.

It’s more of the same, but worse.

Donald Trump’s America is secure.

Terrorists and dangerous criminals: kept out.

The border: secured.

Our families: safe.

Change that makes America safe again.

Donald Trump for President.

I’m Donald Trump, and I approve this message.

Here is the video:

Jeff Clemens, a candidate for the Florida senate, Patrick Murphy, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, and Gwen Graham, a likely future candidate for governor, represent the future to many Florida Democrats, a party that desperately needs a future.

But as often happens among Democrats, little is done to groom the new kids. Instead, Florida Democrats would rather squabble among themselves as sometimes aging politicians decide elected office is better than golf.

A little history.

Florida’s Democratic Party died in 1998. It remained on life support for a few years but voters in subsequent elections pulled the plug. Today, the party is a mess of parochial interests with much chatter about returning to its old glory but little idea how to get there.

During the 20^th Century, Floridians elected just three Republicans to be governor – Claude Kirk (1967-71), Bob Martinez (1987-1991) and Jeb Bush who would end the 20^th Century taking the keys to the mansion in January 1999.

The only other interruption to Democratic reign was Prohibition Party governor Sidney Catts who ran a hateful anti-Catholic campaign and described African-Americans as being part of an “inferior race.” He was governor from 1917 to 1921.

Democrats, who also ruled most of 19^th Century Florida politics, controlled Tallahassee during the period of 1900 to 1999 for 87 years. Today, Florida Democrats are largely irrelevant. They have little influence in Tallahassee and even less in Washington.

During its 20^th Century reign, the Florida Democratic Party fought it out in the primaries and took a nap during the general election when often hapless Republicans were slaughtered. Conservatives, liberals, moderates all found a fraction of the party they could call their own. It was a party where North Florida Democrats looked with great suspicion on South Florida Democrats – and it was equally true in the reverse.

It was a party of personality – Napoleon Broward, Doyle Carlton, Spessard Holland, Claude Pepper, Bill Gunter, LeRoy Collins, Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, Lawton Chiles, and others.

Today, the party is one of petty fiefdoms, petty rivalries, and petty politics. It is often hapless in its attempts to confront Republicans who brush them aside like pesky gnats. So desperate for political success, the party rented it soul to Charlie Crist when the former Republican governor got kicked out his party and decided to run for governor as a Democrat. Now, he is running for Congress in Democratically favored St. Petersburg district.

Florida Democrats, rightly so, get love and attention during presidential election years when the state’s otherwise red glow begins to get a purple hue.

What they don’t notice is that national Democrats are lavishing even more love on independents who really decide where Florida’s 29 electoral votes will go.

So while Democratic activists can get all giddy about Hillary Clinton, they may want to save some energy for what really matters to the future of the party – the down ballot races. Here, Democrats have some interesting choices to make on August 30.

This is one of those ads that - while being used for politics - rises above it all.  Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio helped this mother when her daughter was dying of breast cancer. 

"Thanks to Marco, I had three more months with my daughter," she says. "Marco Rubio was there for me when I needed him most."

If nothing else, the ad is reminder that politics at its best is about helping those who feel helpless.

Here's the video:

Are Florida Republicans a leaderless party?

Who is the leader of the Florida Republican Party?

Governor Rick Scott? Marco Rubio? Adam Putnam? Pam Bondi? Jeff Atwater?

Or perhaps Jeb Bush?

Or – are Florida Republicans so fractured that there is no single leader of the party?

Today’s Florida Republican Party is very different than the one Bush took over when he staged a coup in 1994. He showed up in that year’s governor’s race as candidate who had never run for office, had limited campaign experience and a business background marked by notable failures. Like Donald Trump, what he did have was a name everyone knew – Bush.

With the help of his family name, Bush easily pushed aside more established GOP candidates to become the party’s nominee for governor. Bush would narrowly lose that election to incumbent Democrat Lawton Chiles, but the GOP would take over the Senate and the Florida Cabinet. And Bush began his reign has the undisputed leader of the Florida Republican Party.

Today, Florida Republicans are rudderless. The party that Bush ruled with a firm hand for more than a decade, is fractured. The slide began with the election of Charlie Crist as governor in 2006. It’s hard to believe now that at one point Crist was among those being considered to be John McCain’s running mate in the 2008 presidential campaign.

Crist, much like his arch-enemy Marco Rubio, was always a malleable Republican shifting direction as fit his political ambitions. Florida Republicans tolerated Crist because, well, he was governor. And by golly, if a Floridian became vice president that would be swell too.

Bush deeply cared about the machinery of politics. He put his best people in the right places. Crist could care less. He turned the party machine over to the now notorious Jim Greer who plundered the party coffers and ended up in prison.

Crist’s hold on the party was so tenuous that a faux hug from President Obama led to screams from
the hard right and opportunity for Rubio. The once moderate Rubio found maneuvering room by suddenly becoming an ardent follower of the emerging Tea Party movement. Many establishment Republicans laughed at the notion that Rubio could successfully challenge Crist who decided he would rather be a U.S. Senator than run for a second term as governor.

It was a calamitous moment for the Florida GOP and it began the cracking of party unity.

Rubio became a hero of the Tea Party and as the 2010 primary approached, his ardent followers were overwhelming the GOP establishment. And Republicans who had been lukewarm about Crist suddenly had an opportunity to abandon him

Crist leaves the GOP to run as independent. Rubio captures the party nomination and goes on to win a three way race defeating Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek.

At the same time, a stranger arrived in town – Rick Scott.

Florida Politics, a website owned by Peter Schorsch, reported today that a new poll shows Florida congressional candidate Francis Rooney way ahead with a "double digit lead over his Republican rivals."

The "poll" was done by an organization called Remington Research Group. 

Pray tell - who is that?

According to Florida Politics, the Remington poll shows that:  Rooney leads the pack with 45 percent of the vote. Chauncey Goss is in second with 29 percent, while Dan Bongino received 15 percent support. The poll found 11 percent of respondents were still undecided.  . . . Remington Research Group surveyed 1,606 likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 19th Congressional District from Aug. 14 through Aug. 15.  The automated survey has a margin of error of 2.4 percent.

But pray tell - who is Remington?

A bit of Googling led us to discover that Remington Research Group was founded by Jeff Roe who most recently gained fame for managing Ted Cruz's presidential campaign. He is also the founder of Axiom Strategies based in Kansas City, Mo.

Roe is rapidly becoming one of the Republican Party's most sought after political consultants.

But pray tell - what does this have to do with the Remington poll?

Well a visit to the FEC website for Francis Rooney campaign expenditures came up with this:

There is a second expenditure for $7,500 bringing the total sent to Axiom to $60,774.

Once again let's note:

From Wikipedia: In addition to Axiom Strategies, Roe founded creative agency and direct mail firm Candidate Command and polling and public opinion research company Remington Research Group.

Or let's look at Axiom's website: Axiom Strategies, in collaboration with Remington Research Group, has studied election results in seven battleground states to identify Axiom’s Battleground Counties.

Yup, Axiom and Remington are both owned by Rooney's campaign consultant.

So forgive us if we don't find the Remington poll to be worth much as polls go....although it appears to be worth at least $60,774. 

You can read the Florida Politics report here.  Less than an hour after offering its readers the Rooney poll, Florida Politics began reporting that it has "obtained" a poll for the district 18 congressional race. No source is named. So we'll pass. But if you are interested the link is here.

Donald Trump is planning two rallies in Florida this week. The first is Wednesday at the BB&T Center in Fort Lauderdale. On Thursday, Trump will attend a rally in Kissimmee at the Silver Spurs Arena. Both events are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m., with doors opening at 4 p.m.

Ticket information for the Fort Lauderdale event can be found here.  Tickets information for the Kissimmee event can be found here.

This is Pick-a-Poll week with the latest offering from NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist showing Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Florida 44 to 37.  

This 7 point lead is a striking contrast from the Quinnipiac University Poll which just two days ago showed Trump leading Clinton in Florida 42-39.

My Floridians appear fickle.

So which is it - a 7 point lead for Clinton or a 3 point lead for Trump?

The Q-Poll actually offers us a tie because the point spread is within the poll's 3.1 margin-of-error. Here's one notable problem with the Q-Poll - it was conducted from June 30 to July 11. That is a long stretch. Much can happen in this rapidly moving election cycle to sway a voter's view during that extended period.

The Marist poll is bit tighter, it was conducted July 5 to 11 - making it less likely (though certainly not impossible) that new events could change a voter's outlook.

Here's what we know for sure - Florida will be close. 

Democrats can take a little more solace from Marist poll because Clinton's lead is outside the poll's 3.3 percent margin-of-error. 

Modern polling is very flawed - so buyer beware.

By Brian E. Crowley

It is time to stop blaming Big Sugar.

Yes, Big Sugar is winning. It owns the governor’s office, the cabinet, and the Florida Legislature. It has power over much of Florida’s congressional delegation.

Formidable Tallahassee reporter Mary Ellen Klas did a masterful job this week with an in-depth story in the Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times about the power of Big Sugar.

Between 1994 and 2016, a review of state Division of Elections records by The Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times Tallahassee bureau shows, the sugar industry — led by United States Sugar and Florida Crystals — has steered a whopping $57.8 million in direct and in-kind contributions to state and local political campaigns.

Indeed.

The Sugar industry has been masterful. No matter what successes the environmental community has had – passage of the 1994 Everglades Forever Act, the 1996 Polluter Pays Amendment to the Florida Constitution, the 2000 Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (sign by President Bill Clinton with then Gov. Jeb Bush by his side), or the 2014 Water and Land Conservation Act – the Sugar industry has been able to either slow down implementation or thwart the intent.

How?

By owning a stable of elected officials. By hiring top teams of lobbyists. By having connections in critical government agencies.

And, nothing they do is illegal. Sugar simply plays the game of politics better than their opponents.

As Klas reported:

“I can tell you, first hand, that the industry is directly involved with every decision this Legislature makes,” said Eric Eikenberg, CEO of the Everglades Foundation which for decades has fought the sugar industry over the causes and solutions of the Everglades and was a chief of staff to former Gov. Charlie Crist. (Note: I previously was a media consultant for the Foundation.)

Eikenberg works hard to make sure the Foundation’s voice is heard in Tallahassee but it is an often frustrating experience.

Eikenberg was part of the Crist team that put together the deal to buy U.S. Sugar land. At the time, the company applauded the deal and was eager to get out of the sugar business. But when U.S. Sugar wanted out of the contract it fought hard. And they found a willing ally in the newly elected governor, Rick Scott (to whom they contributed handsomely) who said hell no about buying the land.

No matter the setback, the sugar industry always comes out ahead.

But it is time to stop blaming them. Perhaps it is time to blame the environmentalists.

Marco Rubio is asking Floridians to ignore a year of telling them that if he lost his bid for the presidency he would not run for a second term in the U.S. Senate. And Rubio is keeping that promise. How you may ask?

Well, Rubio is not really running for a second, 6-year term. This is a placeholder position for him as he plans his second run for president. So expect that by 2018, Rubio will begin working on the 2020 race. And perhaps by 2019, we'll again get a pledge that Rubio will not run for a third term if he fails to win the GOP nomination.

In fact, Rubio when asked about finishing a second term, would not commit to doing so. According to the Miami Herald, Rubio: made no commitments about his future ambitions, declining to say if he’d serve a full, six-year term or run again for president in 2020 — or 2024.

“What I’m done making is unequivocal statements about anything at this point,” he said. “I don’t even know who the next president’s going to be. But I will say this to you: If I wanted to run for president in 2020, running for re-election in 2016 was probably not the best choice to make politically."

In politics, admitting you’ve changed your mind is not something most people like to do. But here it goes.

I have decided to seek reelection to the United States Senate.

I understand my opponents will try to use this decision to score political
points against me. Have at it. Because I have never claimed to be perfect, or to have all the answers.

Still, the people of Florida deserve to know why I’ve changed my mind.

Maybe it was just a coincidence but among the many notable things about Mitt Romney's attack on Donald Trump today was his use of the phrase "con artist."  That term as become a favorite of Marco Rubio who has repeatedly called Trump a con artist as the campaigns entered Super Tuesday.

Romney did not endorse anyone. Instead, Romney urged Rubio, Ted Cruz and John Kasich to win their home states, do well elsewhere and deny Trump the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination. The result would be a brokered convention.

Below is a text of Romney's speech as prepared for delivery.

I am not here to announce my candidacy for office. I am not going to endorse a candidate today.

Instead, I would like to offer my perspective on the nominating process of my party. In 1964, days before the presidential election which, incidentally, we lost, Ronald Reagan went on national television and challenged America saying that it was a "Time for Choosing." He saw two paths for America, one that embraced conservative principles dedicated to lifting people out of poverty and helping create opportunity for all, and the other, an oppressive government that would lead America down a darker, less free path. I'm no Ronald Reagan and this is a different moment but I believe with all my heart and soul that we face another time for choosing, one that will have profound consequences for the Republican Party and more importantly, for the country.

When Jeb Bush’s big brother showed up in South Carolina to campaign for him, the Bush family squarely presented voters with this question – Do you want to continue their seven decades-old political dynasty?

There has never been anything quite like the Bushes in American politics. From Prescott Bush who entered the United States Senate in 1952 to George P. Bush who was elected to statewide office (land commissioner) in Texas in 2014, the Bush family is not only asking Americans to elect a third Bush president, but the fourth may be in waiting.

A year after his father left the Senate in 1963 - Prescott Bush represented Connecticut – George H.W. Bush ran for the U.S. Senate from Texas. Bush lost, but it was the start of his nearly non-stop political presence that lasted until he left the White House in 1993.

A year later, George W. Bush would become governor of Texas. His brother would become Florida’s governor four years later. As George W was leaving the White House in 2009, years of wondering if Jeb would run got louder.

Now he is and Americans must decide whether one family should have so much power.

In one sense it is unfair to Jeb. He rightly believes he should be measured by his own skills. During most of his presidential campaign he repeatedly reminded voters that he is “proud to be a Bush but I am my own man.”

This was always only partly true. Bush’s campaign relied heavily on Bush family friends and donors who have helped make the Bushes a political power. Now, Jeb carries not just the enormous burden of winning the Republican nomination, but of not harming the Bush family legacy.

For some voters, to hear a candidate rail against the politics of Washington when one’s family has been part of Washington for decades can sound hollow.

For some voters, the idea of a third Bush presidency can give a chill no matter the first name.

At the moment, Jeb’s own stumbles have delayed the conversation about dynasty. Should his campaign recover, the question of dynasty will move to the front of the debate.

It will be a difficult question to answer.

Jeb Bush, who raised more than $120 million for the Right to Rise Super PAC, said he favors a constitutional amendment to overturn the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision that allows such PACs to operate untethered.

During a speech today before the Rotary Club in Nashua, New Hampshire, Bush said he believes one remedy is for candidate campaigns to be able to receive unlimited contributions and be held "personally accountable and responsible" for the money received. Bush said there would need to be "total transparency" about "the amounts of money and who gives it. And have it with 48 hour turn-around."

Earlier in the day, Bush told CNN, that now there, "is a ridiculous system we have now where you have campaigns that struggle to raise money directly and they can't be held accountable for the spending of the super PAC that's their affiliate."

Right to Rise is, by far, the largest presidential super PAC. It is run by Bush's long-time campaign adviser Mike Murphy. The PAC has spent more than $70 million on campaign activity, according to some reports.

Neither in his speech nor during his appearance on CNN, did Bush say whether he would be willing to publicly urge Murphy to rapidly disclose donors and expenditures. Bush cannot direct Murphy to take any action because federal law forbids coordination between the Bush campaign and Right to Rise.

Still, Bush could make a public statement urging Murphy to meet the candidate's goal of 48-hour disclosures.

Bush also told Rotary members that he believes the time has come for a constitutional convention that would  look at amendments for requiring a balanced federal budget, a line-item veto for the president, and term limits for Congress.

Jeb, "I'm my own man" Bush has brought in his mom to help out his presidential campaign. In a new 30-second ad, Barbara Bush talks about what a swell son here third child is and how Jeb would be a swell president.

The former First Lady, famously said the White House has had enough Bushes and that someone else should run for president. She quickly changed her mind when Jeb made it clear that he was intent on running. Polling suggests that many Republicans agree with his mother's original assessment. 

Jeb's campaign has seen a bit of a rebound and having spent more than $60 million on campaign ads - far, far more than all the other campaigns, Jeb may need mom more than ever.

Jeb Bush makes his second Florida stop today in West Palm Beach where he will speak to nearly 900 members and guests of the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches.

The non-partisan Forum Club will likely likely lean toward a significant number of Republican members and guests eager to hear the former Florida governor who was once an icon among Florida Republicans.

This morning, Bush visited a Cuban restaurant in Hialeah where he was cheered by a welcoming crowd of supporters. After his speech at the Forum Club, Bush will attend a town hall meeting in Ocala.

Bush continued to berate Donald Trump while in Hialeah. Bush once again called Trump "not a serious candidate"   who gets his foreign policy advise from Sunday talk shows.

Bush's speech in West Palm Beach is just a few miles away from Trump's Palm Beach winter home. A third GOP presidential candidate, Ben Carson lives in West Palm Beach. 

On Tuesday, Bush returns to the campaign trail in New Hampshire where his Right to Rise Pac is spending another $14 million on television ads in the Granite State. Bush has far outspent his opponents in the hope of finishing strong in New Hampshire.

Crowley Political Report will be doing live updates on Bush's speech on Twitter @crowleyreport

Jeb Bush has three events Monday in the Sunshine State where he is likely to receive an enthusiastic welcome from fellow Floridians. The GOP presidential candidate has been struggling to push ahead of front runner Donald Trump. Even in his home state, where Bush was Governor from 1999 to 2007, polls suggest that Bush is doing the better than fourth.

Florida's March 15 primary seems far away as candidates battle in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Political strategists believe Bush must do very well in New Hampshire if he is to have any chance of winning the nomination. 

Bush begins Monday in Hialeah morning stop at Chico's Restaurant. Then Bush travels to West Palm Beach where he will speak to the Forum Club of the Palm Beach. More than 700 tickets have already been sold for luncheon at the Palm Beach County Convention Center. That number is expected to grow higher.

Later that afternoon, Bush will attend a Town Hall at Circle Square Commons in Ocala. Bush will be answering questions from folks at all three events. 

Since the last Republican debate, voters have seen a much more aggressive Bush with his number one target being Trump. Expect that to continue during these three appearances.

This morning South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham used YouTube to tell supporters that he is no longer a candidate for president. The Republican's campaign never really garnered much support and the biggest question facing him - and a number of other candidates, has been when it would end.

Graham describes his effort as "a problem solvers campaign."

A time when access to public meetings and records is becoming more challenging, the First Amendment Foundation and the Poynter Institute are announcing a new partnership that will strengthen the effort of protecting a citizen's right to public meeting and access.

The announcement is below. (Disclosure: Crowley Political Report is a board member of the First Amendment Foundation.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (Dec. 18, 2015) – The First Amendment Foundation, a 31-year-old nonprofit organization dedicated to open government in Florida, announced today that it will add offices and move its administrative management from Tallahassee to The Poynter Institute here. In addition, the two organizations will partner on training and events, including the creation of a new online “Sunshine Certificate” to help educate elected officials on open government laws.

The Foundation will rent space for a staff member at the Poynter campus in St. Petersburg while continuing to maintain an office in Tallahassee. Poynter will provide management services to support the Foundation’s membership, website and financial accounting. The Foundation is the third organization in 2015 to turn to Poynter for management services, following the move to Poynter by the Association of Opinion Journalists and the American Society of Business Publication Editors.

Key training components include: an innovative online “Sunshine” certificate; an annual symposium; regional seminars; and development of a digital version of the 2016 Government-in-the-Sunshine manual.

“I’m thrilled to be working closely with the First Amendment Foundation, which for more than three decades has been a champion for government in the sunshine in the Sunshine State,” said Poynter President Tim Franklin. “In the end, Poynter and the First Amendment Foundation have the same mission, and that’s to improve democracy through public engagement. This is a partnership that will ultimately strengthen both organizations, and make our important work for journalists and citizens even better.”

Dave Wilson, chairman of the Foundation’s board of trustees, said, “The First Amendment Foundation is delighted to have found a strong partner in the Poynter Institute to help further our core mission of preserving open government in Florida through information and education. Keeping our government in the sunshine is important to all Floridians, and this new relationship will leverage the expertise of both organizations so we can spread that message for years to come.”

This video from Kevin Cate of Cate Communications, is a funny take on Donald Trump, Santa Claus, his elves and Christmas. Whether you are fan of Trump's or you loathe him, everyone should agree this is a very well produced satire.

Copyright @CrowleyPoliticalReport

It has become almost pointless to continue to note that national polls mean very little because the dynamic of how polls are being used this year make quality far less important than the buzz caused by the never-ending cycle of polls. Clearly this dubious enterprise has been grand for Donald Trump and a nightmare for Jeb Bush who must keep explaining to donors why he is in single digits.

Today's Quinnipiac Poll creates this narrative: nothing Trump does seems to hurt him; Marco Rubio's strength is growing; Bush continues to struggle.

Trump: 27

Rubio: 17

Carson: 16

Cruz: 16

Bush: 5

All others 3 or less.

8 percent undecided.

 "It doesn't seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the 'political correctness' is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, 'This could be the guy.'

From November 23 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,453 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 672 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 573 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 Read more about the poll here.