Crowley Political Report

If President Obama loses Florida in 2012, his presidency will be over.  A new Quinnipiac Poll is echoing what many Sunshine State Democrats are saying privately - Obama is losing his Florida support.

One Florida Democratic leader told Crowley Political Report that he has never been this discouraged. A party fundraiser grits his teeth and warns that Obama better start spending some quality time in Florida. Out of loyality, they did not want to named complaining about the president.

Republicans are almost giddy. As they flock to Orlando for Presidency 5 and the CPAC gathering, the party faithful are convinced that Obama is a one-term president. For Republicans the biggest quandry is which candidate they want to see in the White House.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made an impressive showing with a group of about 30 party leaders and elected officials in West Palm Beach. Palm Beach County chairman Sid Dinerstein, who insists he is remaining neutral, was clearly charmed by Perry.

"I like what he has to say and he really listens," said Dinerstein.

The only dark moment came when Perry's goons, otherwise known as Texas Rangers, shut down the Kravis Center property to the media. The Kravis center has hosted scores of national political figures and the shut down was unprecedented.

One Ranger threatened to have a television reporter handcuffed if he tried to go the normal media staging area.  It was an unnecessary bullying tactic since Perry was using a back interest to enter the event site and was nowhere near the media. In fact, all Perry's folks accomplished was making it difficult for the TV stations to do interviews with guests who were praising the governor.

Brilliant advance work guys.

Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac Poll found that "Florida voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state."

No wonder Republicans are excited and Democrats are in a funk.

And here's the really bad news for the White House - "Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 – 41 percent." 

Here's a closer look at the Quinnipiac Poll (the results include the Florida U.S. Senate race):

Florida Gov. Rick Scott has the worst poll numbers of any governor in the nation.  His dismal 29 percent favorability rating has climbed to a mere 35 percent in a new Quinnipiac poll.

Scott has taken notice.

Despite repeatedly telling folks that he does not read newspapers or polls, Scott is clearly paying close attention to both.

In recent weeks, Scott has reshuffled his staff bringing on Tallahassee insider Steve McNamara as his chief-of-staff.  And, as Crowley Political Report and others have noted, Scott is making a greater effort to mingle with the folks.

Scott clearly has is work cut out for him.

According to Quinnipiac, "Florida voters say 45 – 34 percent that they do not like Scott as a person.  This is the highest ‘dislike’ seen in any state surveyed by Quinnipiac University this year.  Voters tend to like their governor, even when they disapprove of the job he or she is doing.  Florida voters like President Barack Obama as a person 69 – 18 percent, but disapprove 51 – 44 percent of the job he is doing, as reported yesterday."

In other findings:

Voters dislike his policies 54 – 34 percent;

Voters disapprove 57 – 32 percent of his handling of the state budget;

42 percent say budget cuts went too far, as 20 percent say not far enough and 25 percent say the cuts are about right;

Voters say 39 – 26 percent that spending cuts in the budget will hurt, rather than help, the Florida economy;

Voters say 51 – 33 percent that the new state budget is unfair to them.

Scott has his work cut out for him. Can he pull it off?

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,417 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey was conduct from July 27 to Aug 2.

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Looking at today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters reveals a few interesting tidbits that could color the 2012 presidential election.

Sure President Obama inched into a 51 percent approval rating but that is clearly a fragile number. He benefited from the killing of Osama bin Laden and worries about the GOP plan to dismantle Medicare in favor of a voucher plan for medical care.

But there are some clear warning signs in this poll that Floridians could turn on Obama if the case is made that the White House is mired in Afghanistan and Libya.

Fifty-six percent of Florida voters said the U.S. should not be fighting in Afghanistan. Fifty-seven percent oppose our involvement in Libya.

Another interesting number, undoubtedly related to gas prices - 49 percent of Florida voters favor offshore drilling for gas and oil.

In other poll results Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a commanding lead over his three potential GOP rivals.  And voters suggested they know little about the Republican candidates - Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux.

None of that matters since few voters are paying any real attention to Florida's senate race.

That will happen soon enough.

Crowley Political Report is not sure whether to admire Florida Gov. Rick Scott for sticking to his beliefs about state government or to simply note that once again Scott and his team remain clueless about what Floridians really want.

We'll go with clueless.

The latest Quinnipiac Poll suggests that most Floridians agree.  Rick Scott has managed to squander what little support he had on election-day 2010. In little more than six months, Scott's approval rating has sunk to 29 percent.

That May number is even worse than Scott's already dismal April poll numbers which showed that just 35 percent of Florida voters approved of Scott's job performance.

This is great news for the Obama administration. If Scott's numbers continue to remain abysmally low, he could pull down the Republican Party in Florida.

Republicans are not likely to win the White House without winning Florida's 29 electoral votes. The GOP should be looking at the Sunshine State with great anticipation - after all, the 2010 election gave the party the governor's mansion, all three cabinet seats and veto-proof majorities in the state House and Senate.

But the face of the party is Scott. And right now it is not a very pretty face.

Of course, that begs a larger question - Is Rick Scott really a Republican?

Should we be worried about Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott? You have to be in a heap a trouble to ask your mom to bail you out.

Crowley Political Report has been closely following Florida governors since 1979. This is the first time a governor has called his mom and asked her to tell Floridians that he is doing a good job.

This is just odd behavior.

It's a little like a grown man bringing his mom to the office to tell his boss that he's a swell worker and should have a raise.

So why would you ask your mother to make a 38-second internet ad declaring you a "good boy" just days after the end of your first legislative session?

It would appear this is Scott's way of  going to Poll Depot to purchase better poll numbers.  This is what Scott does. Cranky with Obama's health care plan? - dip into your checking account and start you own anti-Obama care organization.

Wanna be governor? - use the big debit card. Ditto the private jet. And now, it appears that Scott wants to buy some friends.

And what does that tell us about Scott and his advisors? That they have a very cynical view of Floridians.

Here is Esther Scott speaking about her son (note: she does not live in Florida). (Note 2 - some have grumbled about the ad being shot in the governor's mansion in Tallahassee - who cares, really?)

Art by Patrick Crowley

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Last night on Twitter, Crowley Political Report asked this question - Rick Scott's public support is tanking - so how does the CEO explain such poor customer satisfaction?

When Gov. Scott campaigned he offered himself as an experienced businessman who would bring sound business practices to the art of governing.

Apparently, that concept did not include successful marketing which is a bit of a surprise considering how well his marketing team did in getting him elected.

Scott made it clear shortly after becoming governor that the first job of a new CEO is to "get control of the checkbook."

But while Florida's 45th governor is busy getting control of the checkbook, slashing dollars and people, and looking for wholesale revamping of government agencies - he is doing a lousy job of public relations and marketing.

First let's note that any polling down about an election that won't take place until November 2012 is largely worthless.

Second, while favorability ratings are fun to look at, the value of that information is, shall we say, very limited at this point when looked at in context of an election more than 18 months away.

So the newest Public Policy Polling survey is really an exercise in amusement.

But from it we can derive this question - is former Gov. Jeb Bush the only person who has a real chance of defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?

Crowley Political Report says the answer is "yes" and "no."

Certainly if Bush gets into the race it would be a nightmare for Nelson. It would also be a nightmare for every GOP candidate remotely thinking about running.

On Jan. 3, Crowley Political Report wondered how long it would take for folks to start wondering if Florida Gov. Rick Scott was vice presidential material.

It didn't take long. Within weeks some speculation began trickling out - with a few folks wondering if Scott could make the top of the ticket.

Scott doesn't appear to be thinking about the White House in 2012, but as we wrote in January if you are Florida's governor, someone is thinking you might be a dandy vice-president.

By the summer of 2012, Scott - assuming he is not a disaster - could be getting a lot of national attention as Republicans begin to gather in Tampa for their national convention.

Unfortunately for Scott he is being eclipsed on the national stage by Florida's newest United States Senator - Marco Rubio.

Rubio rolled out his national visibility campaign this week insisting all he wants to be is a good senator for Florida.

President? Nope. Vice President? Nope.

When Rubio declines this causes genuine pain for the nation's conservative commentators. They L-O-V-E Rubio.

Meanwhile, let's just say Scott is a little less loved.

People have been signing the death warrant for newspapers for decades. With the emergence of the internet and the titanic sinking of ad revenue, many newspapers in Florida and elsewhere are a shadow of their glorious past.

Now, iPads, smartphones, Twitter, Facebook and other platforms are not only redefining news but further dismantling the traditional advertising model.

And it may be one explanation for why Florida Gov. Rick Scott and other politicians feel less inclined to cater to news media.

A PEW research study released today titled - State of the News Media 2011 - finds a few glimmers of hope but only a few.

Below are a few excerpts. You can read the entire PEW study here.

In a media world where consumers decide what news they want to get and how they want to get it, the future will belong to those who understand the public's changing behavior and can target content and advertising to snugly fit the interests of each user. That knowledge -- and the expertise in gathering it -- increasingly resides with technology companies outside journalism.

In the 20th century, the news media thrived by being the intermediary others needed to reach customers. In the 21st, increasingly there is a new intermediary: Software programmers, content aggregators and device makers control access to the public. The news industry, late to adapt and culturally more tied to content creation than engineering, finds itself more a follower than a leader in shaping its business.

Jeb Bush does not want to run  for president.

Certainly not in 2012. Bush has made that clear - repeatedly.

He has become the perfect fantasy candidate for some conservatives who believe that Bush is the rightful heir to the Bush family throne.

But a new poll by Fox News shows that Jeb Bush would lose to President Obama 54-34 in a hypothetical match-up between the two men.

Hang on to that word hypothetical.

Everything written and said about the 2012 presidential campaign is hypothetical at this point. The only real, continuing certainty is that Jeb Bush is not running.

Look, take him at his word. He's been saying it for years. Jeb Bush is not running for president - not in 2012 and probably never.

On the other hand, most Florida Republicans would love to see Bush run for the U.S. Senate against Democrat Bill Nelson.

It would be a helluva race. And if the former governor won, he would have new platform for his beloved topic of education reform.

But president. Not gonna happen.

Since winning election one of the challenges for Florida's 45th governor continues to be the fact that very few Floridian really know much about Rick Scott.

That seems to be reflected in a Quinnipiac Poll released today which finds that 43 percent of Florida voters "don't know" if they approve or disapprove of Scott's job performance. And 45 percent say they don't know enough about him.

That 45 percent is a big number for a guy who just won a statewide election but in this case not a surprising one. Scott did not come on the political scene until April and most voters - and even political experts - did not have a  clue who this guy was.

And he also came on the scene carrying the heavy baggage of his now well-reported foibles with Columbia/HCA which led to his dismissal and a record setting fine for the corporation due to Medicare fraud.

So when Scott was sworn in last month, there was a large "wait and see" attitude that is clearly reflected in this poll.

At this point 28 percent say they have a "favorable" opinion of Scott, 24 percent "unfavorable" and 45 percent say they don't know enough about Scott to have an opinion.

The good news for Scott is that most of the 1,160 voters surveyed seem to be willing to give him a chance to succeed - 56 percent said they are optimistic about the next four years under Scott's leadership.

Today during interviews with two television stations, Crowley Political Report was asked whether Democrat Alex Sink or Republican Rick Scott will be Florida's 45th governor.

Polls are of little help.

Quinnipiac has Sink leading 45-41.

Susquehanna has Scott leading 47-45.

Mason Dixon has Sink leading 46-43.

Rasmussen has Scott leading 48-45.

All of the polls suggest that - within their margin-of-error - this is an extremely tight race with neither Scott nor Sink certain of victory.

Crowley Political Report doesn't know who will win - but we're fairly certain it will be a fascinating election night.

Art by Patrick Crowley

If you believe the latest stats from FiveThirtyEight/NYTimes Florida's race for governor is incredibly close.

Using a complicated formula based on demograhpic and polling data, FiveThirtyEight's newest projection for what will happen on election day suggests that Democrat Alex Sink and Republican Rink Scott are just one-tenth of a point apart.

The projected election day results shows Scott at 48.9 and Sink at 48.8.

Read it just for fun.  Take it as seriously, or not, as you want.

But it is safe to conclude that as of today - this remains an incredibly close race with the question remaining - which candidate will break out?

While the media  gleefully tells you about the latest polling results do they bother to ask this question of the pollsters - did you include voters who only use cell phones?

It is a critical question that goes unasked

Cell-only adults are demographically and politically different from those who live in landline households; as a result, election polls that rely only on landline samples may be biased. Although some survey organizations now include cell phones in their samples, many -- including virtually all of the automated polls -- do not include interviews with people on their cell phones.

That tidbit comes from a report today from the Pew Research Center which is a leader in research about the press and politics.

When Pew does a poll it often surveys more than 2,500 - including a sampling of those with only cellphones.  Their polls are far more detailed than any we see coming with surveys of 500 to 700 likely voters.

Consider this: The latest estimates of telephone coverage by the National Center for Health Statistics found that a quarter of U.S. households have only a cell phone and cannot be reached by a landline telephone.

In an earlier report, Pew said:  pollsters and other survey researchers who use the telephone as the principal means of reaching potential respondents face a difficult decision as to whether to include cell phones in their samples. Doing so adds significantly to the cost and complexity of conducting surveys at a time when respondent cooperation is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain.

At this point the answer appears to be - yes.

Another poll, another big lead for Republican Marco Rubio.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,055 likely Florida voters and found Rubio leading No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist 44-30.  Democrat Kendrick Meek is at a dismal 22 percent.

Unless someone comes up with a bombshell that tears apart Rubio's campaign - it is hard to see how he won't be Florida's next U.S. Senator.

The fact is that candidates with double digit leads three weeks from election day just don't lose.

Would it make any difference if either Crist or Meek dropped out of the race - maybe, but not likely.

It is clear that Crist has lost the magic and Meek never had it.

 Note: All public polling should be taken with a large grain of salt. Read here to find out why.

Is the trust question finally taking a toll on Republican Rick Scott?

That seems to be the conclusion of the new Qunnipiac University which shows that Scott's unfavorable ratinig is climbing.

While the race to be Florida's next governor is too close to call, Democrat Alex Sink, with 44 percent of the vote, seems to be making gains while Scott, at 45 percent, is slipping.

On Oct. 1, Scott was leading 49 to 43.

One notable difference since then has been a series of new Sink ads featuring prosecutors and cops - both Republicans and Democrats - who say Scott can't be trusted.

Crowley Political Report called the ad that began on Oct. 5 - a day before Quinnipiac started polling -  "A powerful, potentially devastating ad against Republican Rick Scott."  See the ad here.

More from Quinnipiac:

Quinnipiac's new poll suggests the race to be Florida's next governor is shifting toward Republican Rick Scott.

Scott at 49 has a six-point lead over Democrat Alex Sink who is at 43.

The Q-poll was taken September 23 - 28,  and surveyed 1,151 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

"Scott's lead comes despite a television advertising campaign that voters say they find annoying," according to Q-poll director Peter Brown. "Rick Scott's millions in TV advertising may annoy voters, but it won him the Republican nomination and is pushing him to a 6-point general election lead."

More from Brown:

Among likely voters, 89 percent said they had seen Scott's TV ads and 54 percent of that group call the ads annoying, while 40 percent say they are informative. But 43 percent of likely voters say Scott's campaign advertising is "the right amount" while 38 percent call it "excessive," and 11 percent say "not enough."

Almost as many likely voters, 87 percent, have seen Sink's commercials. This group splits 47 - 46 percent on whether the ads are informative or annoying. More than half, 51 percent, say the Sink ad spending is "about right," while 17 percent call it "excessive" and 21 percent say it's "not enough."

Read more about the Q-poll here.

Grim.

That's the only way you can react to a pair of polls that show No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist badly trailing Republican Marco Rubio.

Today's Quinnipiac University poll is, well, devastating for the Crist campaign. It is beginning to look like Crist's frolick into the world of no-party candidacy is going to end badly.

The news is worse for Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek who is at 18 percent.

Rubio is at 46 to Crist's 33 percent. Yesterday, Crowley Political Report, told you about the CNN/Time magazine poll that shows Crist trailing Rubio by seven points, 38-31.

The headline says it all. The new CNN/Time poll of 786 likely voters was taken from Sept. 24-28 and has a margin-of-error of 3.5 percent.

This remains a very close race which could go either way. Democrat Alex Sink and Republican Rick Scott have started running a number of new ads that are aimed at moving these numbers.

Who will be Florida's next governor? Right now it is anybody's guess.

Another poll, another set of grim numbers for No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist.

A new CNN/Time poll has Crist trailing Democrat Marco Rubio by 7 points with Rubio at 38, Crist at 31 and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek at 25.

CNN/Time reports that in their polling Crist was the only no-party candidate that "seems to be fading."

786 likely voters were polled from Sept. 24-28. The poll has a margin-of error of plus/minus 3.5 percent.