Polls

Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Demgoplo096
Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Continue reading "Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush" »


Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Demgoplo096
Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Continue reading "Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush" »


Is Rick Scott a one-term governor

RickScott
Another poll, another bad day for Florida Gov. Rick Scott. A new Quinnipiac University poll has Scott trailing former Gov. Charlie Crist by 16 points.

Even worse is this tidbit from the Q-poll: 

Florida voters say 50 – 40 percent that Crist’s switch from Republican to independent and now to Democrat is a positive thing that shows he is a pragmatist, rather than a negative thing that shows he lacks core beliefs.  

And then there is this:

Scott’s potential vulnerability is evidenced by the fact that only 32 percent of voters say he deserves a second term in office, including just 28 percent of independent voters.  His job approval rating is a negative 36 – 49 percent, compared to his negative 36 – 45 percent disapproval in a December 19 survey. . .

There is a touch of good news for Scott. The poll suggests he should win the GOP primary:

Scott’s support among Republicans appears pretty solid, although he has a lot of fences to mend with independent voters and he has virtually no crossover appeal to Democrats.

The poll suggests that if Republican Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam wants to challenge Scott in the GOP primary Putnam would have a difficult time. 

Here's how the poll was done:

From March 13 – 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.  The survey includes 353 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

 

 


Florida Republican Party takes on Charlie Crist again

Either the folks at the Republican Party of Florida have too much time on their hands and are really bored or they really fear former Gov. Charlie Crist. 

The Republican turned independent soon-to-be Democrat and likely candidate for governor is featured in still another attack by the Florida GOP. Makes you wonder what the Republican Party's internal polls are telling them.

Clearly, the party appears to be very concerned about Crist's political future. Could it be that they believe Crist could defeat Gov. Rick Scott in the 2014 election? 

Here's the latest missive from the Florida GOP:

 

Shipwreck-Poster (1)

After a brief estrangement, professional political candidate Charlie Crist has reforged his alliance with his hand-picked political co-star, Jim Greer, and the two are now trying to leverage it into a new, blockbuster theatrical release.

In a delicately choreographed theatrical teaser, the two former political co-conspirators thrilled MSNBC viewers this week in a coordinated duet, with supporting roles filled admirably by Al Sharpton and Rachael Maddow.

Continue reading "Florida Republican Party takes on Charlie Crist again" »


Sergio Bendixen disagrees with our poll analysis

Prominent pollster Sergio Bendixen of Bendixen & Amandi International disagrees with Crowley Political Report's view of recent polling of Cuban-American voters. That story, which appeared here and in Columbia Journalism Review noted considerably confusion in the reporting of polls and questioned the disparity among pollsters. I think Mr. Bendixen may have missed the point.

Since Mr. Bendixen spent time writing a lengthy rebuttal (which he added as a comment to the original story) - it seems only fair to post his reply here:

From Sergio Bendixen

When I first came to the United States from Peru in 1961, Ricky Ricardo was the only television personality I could identify with. So any time his image is used to challenge anything Cuban, I must come to his defense. 

The recent Crowley Political Report is missing some important information which has obviously clouded the judgment of its author when it comes to his conclusions. 

1.) Most - if not all - researchers and pollsters agree that if you want to accurately measure the voting behavior of a demographic group, exit polling is the best way to do it, as long as it includes interviews with absentee and other early voters. Pre-election polls cannot predict accurately which voters will show up at the polls and which voters will not. Precinct analysis of voting results cannot reveal the voting behavior of Cuban voters because there are no "pure Cuban" precincts in Miami-Dade County or any other county in the United States. The top 50 "Cuban precincts" in Miami-Dade County (according to the U. S. Census) have a substantial percentage (20% to 50%) of African American, White Anglo and non-Cuban Hispanic registered voters within them.

 2.) The only organizations that conducted an exit poll in Florida among Cuban voters were Edison Research (for the major television networks and AP), the Pew Hispanic Center and Bendixen & Amandi International (B&A: my firm). All of the other polls and studies that Mr. Crowley mentions in his report were either pre-election polls or post-election precinct analysis of Miami-Dade "Cuban precincts." Those include the FIU/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely Florida Hispanic voters conducted by Professor Eduardo Gamarra in October, the FIU post-election precinct analysis utilizing "ecological regression" methodology conducted by Professor Dario Moreno (incorrectly identified in the Crowley report as an exit poll), and the Latino Decisions "eve of the election" Florida Hispanic poll. The report also cites an electoral analysis by Professor Ben Bishin of the University of California at Riverside.

 3.) Mr. Crowley misses an obvious pattern in the data. The three statewide exit polls show extremely similar results. All of them show Obama and Romney splitting the statewide Cuban vote (Edison and Pew had Obama at 49% and Bendixen & Amandi had Obama at 48%). In other words, all three exit polls had the same finding - Cuban voters supported a Democratic presidential candidate at a historic level in 2012.

Continue reading "Sergio Bendixen disagrees with our poll analysis" »


Florida, Cuban voters, the media and what went wrong

This first appeared in Columbia Journalism Review

Ricky Ricardo

 

By Brian E. Crowley

Somehow the Florida election is beginning to feel a bit like an episode from the old I Love Lucy comedy. Not only did the Sunshine State hang over election results for four days—and still counting in some races—but there has been forehead-slapping confusion over who won the Cuban-American vote here, by how much, and what it might mean. The confusion has been fueled by a collection of all-over-the-map poll numbers variously cited, depending on the news source, to draw premature conclusions about this unique voting population.

So let’s start with this widely repeated statement by Cuban-American Ricky Ricardo to his wife: “Lucy, you’ve got some ‘splaining’ to do.”

Continue reading "Florida, Cuban voters, the media and what went wrong" »


Caputo, Schale, and questions about Florida presidential polls

Politics

Here't the latest report in Columbia Journalism Review taking a look at the polling controversy in Florida:

Herald’s Caputo dives deep on diverging polls

Do other news organizations undermine their credibility when they don’t do the same?

By Brian E. Crowley

Voters here have reason to be confused this week as they look at two polls, coming out one day apart, with one showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state and the other showing Romney leading Obama.

Continue reading "Caputo, Schale, and questions about Florida presidential polls" »


Majority of Florida voters say Obama does not deserve a second term

Obama cartoonFor Mitt Romney supporters in Florida, the headline from the today's Quinnipiac Poll is that Romney leads Barack Obama 47-41.  But that may be the least interesting of the poll's numbers - afterall, leads come and go.

What should trouble Florida Democrats is this set of numbers:

52 percent said Obama does not deserve a second term. 52 percent said they don't approve of the job he is doing. And just 45 percent have a favorable view of the president.

All of this comes on the heels of a barrage of Obama campaign ads.

This is grim for Democrats. Not insurmountable but grim.

From May 15 – 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,722 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.  

Here are the complete poll results from Quinnipiac:

Continue reading "Majority of Florida voters say Obama does not deserve a second term" »


Quinnipiac Poll gives Florida Democrats something to smile about

Florida Democrats have had little to smile about in the past few years. They have lost so many elections that they are nearly irrelevant in Tallahassee and Washington. Democrats hold just one statewide office - that of U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

So you can't blame Florida Democrats if they woke up this morning feeling a little better about themselves. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by seven points. 

The Q-poll also looks at Pennsylvania and Ohio. The complete poll results for all three states are below:

In his best showing in this election cycle, President Barack Obama pulls away from former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in two critical swing states, while a third state remains too close to call, according to today’s Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Women back the president over Romney or Santorum by 6 to 19 percentage points in the three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.  Most matchups among men are too close to call.  Voters in these states are much more concerned with the economy and health care than they are with social issues and women’s reproductive health.

Matching Obama against either Romney or Santorum in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them – shows:

  • Florida: Obama tops Romney 49 – 42 percent;  Obama beats Santorum 50 – 37 percent.
  • Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 – 41 percent;  Obama leads Santorum 47 – 40 percent.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama edges Romney 45 – 42 percent;  Obama tops Santorum 48 – 41 percent.

“President Barack Obama is on a roll in the key swing states.  If the election were today, he would carry at least two states.  And if history repeats itself, that means he would be re-elected,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“But the election is not today.  It is seven months away.  Two months ago President Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical tie in Ohio and Florida,” Brown added.

“The biggest reason for the president’s improving prospects probably is the economy.  Roughly six in 10 voters in all three states think the economy is recovering.   Moreover, voters blame the oil companies and oil-producing countries for the rise in gasoline prices and only about one in six voters blame them on President Obama.

 “Although the lead Romney had over Obama in trial matchups late last year has disappeared, he remains the stronger of the two major GOP contenders.  Voters in Pennsylvania still see Romney as better able than the president to fix the economy and both Romney and Obama are stronger than Sen. Rick Santorum on that measure in each state.

“Despite the focus on social issues such as same-sex marriage and women’s reproductive health, these issues are lower priorities for the voters.”

Voters blame oil companies and oil-producing nations more than Obama for gas prices.  And about 60 percent in each state blame environmental regulations for increased prices.

Continue reading "Quinnipiac Poll gives Florida Democrats something to smile about" »


What the Times/Herald Republican poll didn't tell you

Crowley Political Report takes a closer look at this weekend's Times/Herald Republican presidential campaign poll for Columbia Journalism Review. The polls stories were written by Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith and Miami Herald political writer Marc Caputo. Some excerpts from the CJR report:

Both reporters went to considerable length to describe the complexities of the campaign and the reasons for Romney’s apparent resurgence and Gingrich’s apparent slide. Where they failed, however, is in what they did not report.

Newspaper polling (and the coverage of such polling) has long been a pet peeve of mine. Smith, Caputo and others with whom I worked as a political reporter have been subjected to my railing about newspaper polls countless times.

In Caputo’s and Smith’s stories, there is a clear example of what is wrong with newspaper polls and the coverage thereof. Both reporters wrote that their poll showed that Romney has a 24-point lead over Gingrich among Hispanic voters—52 to 28 percent. But readers were not told important details about these numbers. I interviewed Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research who conducted the poll for the newspapers. He said the survey of 500 registered, likely voting, Republicans included just 75 Hispanics. Of those 75 Hispanics surveyed, the number consisted “heavily” of Cuban Americans who live in Miami-Dade county.

Now, the argument can be made that Miami-Dade Cuban Americans will be the overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters in the Florida primary, as Caputo explains in his story. But neither Caputo nor Smith tells readers that their Hispanic survey is, in fact, not a comprehensive look at Florida Hispanic voters. Coker told me that if he were doing a detailed survey of Hispanics he would have surveyed 400 not 75.

Once you realize that the survey sample is 75, it begs the next question: What is the margin of error? The Times and Herald reported that the margin of error for the 500 Republicans surveyed was 4.5 percent. True. But what they did not tell readers was the margin of error for the 75 Hispanic voters surveyed, which Coker told me was plus or minus 12 percent. That means that the percentage of Hispanics who support Romney ranges from 40 percent to 64 percent and the percentage supporting Gingrich ranges from 16 percent to 40 percent.

What does it really mean? That there is little statistical value in the number of Hispanics surveyed. This is a common problem when news organizations report subgroups in their polls. Often the numbers surveyed are too small to reveal any meaningful information.

. . . 

Another problem is that neither the Times nor the Herald released its complete polling results with questions and crosstabs (the Times posted poll questions online). While print news holes may be too small, there is no reason not to post all of this information on the newspaper websites. The timing of the release is also problematic. The poll was conducted during the period of January 24-26. The results were not released on the newspaper websites until very late on Saturday, January 28. The results then appeared in the Sunday paper, three days after the survey was completed. Pollsters will tell you there is simply too much volatility that close to an election to hold on to poll results for three days. Even voters surveyed on the 24th could have changed their opinion by the 25th.

. . .

News organizations are getting increasingly sloppy with reporting on—and addressing the shortcomings of—their own polls, not to mention asking tough questions of all the other polls that seem to pop up every day.

The National Council on Public Polls offers 20 questions journalists should ask about poll results. Let’s ask them.

You can read the entire Columbia Journalism Review report here.

Follow on Twitter @crowleyreport


Politico poll puts Gingrich within reach of defeating Romney

On Wednesday evening, a score of enthusiatic supporters of Newt Gingrich waved sign at motorists in Boca Raton. A member of the Crowley Political Report team reports that many drivers honked their horns and waved in support of Gingrich.

Could it be that the former House Speaker, is catching on in Florida?

Mitt Romney's campaign remains a formidable machine but the newest polls suggest Romney is still struggling to win the hearts of GOP primary voters.

A new Politico poll released Thursday morning shows Gingrich within striking distance of Romney in South Carolina.

"The poll finds Romney atop the GOP field with 37 percent and Gingrich at 30 percent. Ron Paul trails with 11 percent, followed by Rick Santorum at 10 percent and Rick Perry, who barely registers at four percent. Just eight percent remain undecided."

Many of the voters who will show up at the polls for the Jan. 31 Florida primary are likely to Tea Party supporting conservatives - folks not terribly fond of Romney.

What will likely save Romney in Florida is absentee ballots and possibly the start of early voting. Gingrich simple didn't catch fire when absentee ballots were being cast. 

Still, if Gingrich wins or comes very close to Romney in South Carolina, a victory in Florida could take Gingrich to the nomination.

Rear more of Politico here.

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport


Jeb Bush cracks under pressure says he will run for president

Now doesn't that headline make you feel better. 

No, Jeb Bush is not running for president. Not in 2012. Not in 2016. Not in 2020. 

Crowley Political Report couldn't resist. Our good friend Adam Smith of the soon-to-be Tampa Bay Times reports on The Buzz that someone is polling in New Hampshire asking whether folks there would like Bush to get in the Republican race.

Adam has it right - "It doesn't necessarily mean anything beyond a public pollster looking for an intriguing peg for attention or a wishful thinker aiming to coax a late entry into the race by a stronger GOP candidate."

See what else Adam has to say on TheBuzz.


Newt Gingrich, Tea Party and why Mitt Romney may lose Florida

TEAPARTY

Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest. 

In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.

That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.

But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich.  The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters."   Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.

Why?

Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.

Those folks are not going to vote for Romney.

 

Here's the Q Poll trendline:

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

                     Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 22  Aug 04

                     2011      2011       2011      2011

 

Perry                 4       5      28      13

Gingrich         35      17       7       4

Romney          22      21      22      23

Bachmann        4       4       5       6

Santorum          2       1       2       1

Paul                     8       3       6       9

Huntsman         2       1       2       1

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Will the Tea Party give Florida to Newt Gingrich?

Eler

A new poll shows Newt Gingrich supported by 50 percent of likely-voter Florida Republicans. Mitt Romney comes in at 19 percent and Herman Cain is at 10 percent.

What Crowley Political Report finds most interesting is that Gingrich gets 54 percent of the vote from Republicans who say they are Tea Party supporters.

Why does this matter?

Continue reading "Will the Tea Party give Florida to Newt Gingrich?" »


Adam Hasner new campaign video

Times are tough for Florida U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hasner. Just as it looked like he had a chance to edge out George LeMieux for the nomination, Congressman Connie Mack pops up and says he thinks he'd like to have the GOP nod.

Recent polls show Hasner at 2 percent. He is even behind former U.S. Army Col. Mike McCalister who has shown a singular lack of understanding about Florida politics.

LeMieux, who was appointed to the Senate by former Gov. Charlie Crist to finish the term of Mel Martinez, has struggled to win conservative Republicans and Tea Party voters who loathe Crist and will never forgive LeMieux for being his pal.

A Quinnipiac University poll last week of Florida GOP voters found 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

How solid are those numbers? We won't know until Mack actually starts campaigning and voters get  better look at him. 

Meanwhile, Hasner offered up this new campaign video today. One suggestion - don't let your candidate sit in back seat. Put him right up there in the front passenger seat so he doesn't look like he has a chauffeur.

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

 


St. Pete Times, Miami Herald may sign exclusive deal with Mason Dixon poll

Florida's political polling landscape is changing with an expected announcement that the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald will sign a 5-year deal with Mason Dixon to do exclusive polling for the newspapers.

The Times/Herald already works closely in providing their readers with coverage of the 2012 elections. The news organizations also combined their Tallahassee bureaus.

The newspapers have long done joint polling, usually using two pollsters - one Republican, one Democratic.

Sources tell Crowley Political Report that the agreement will allow for more polling throughout the year giving Florida readers a deeper snapshot of issues, campaigns, and voters.

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Why the Quinnipiac poll goes too far in looking at the Florida Senate race

Florida Republican voters can stay home next year because the nominee for U.S. Senate has already been decided, according to Quinnipiac University.

In fact, the Q's assistant director, Peter Brown, suggests that Congressman Connie Mack has such a formidable lead over his rivals - Adam Hasner, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister - that they should quit now.

Really?

“Although 45 percent of GOP voters, including 59 percent of GOP women, say they are undecided, Mack becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination,” Brown said.  “Mack’s candidacy may force the other GOP contenders to reconsider whether they want to stay in the race.”

That tidbit comes from the Quinnipiac press release about the survey results.

There is no question that the poll suggests that 30 seconds after Mack entered the race he jumped into a huge lead.   The survey of 513 registered Republicans (margin of error 4.3), shows 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

Yes, this is good news for Mack.  Clearly his name recognition - even if some of those voters only know his father, former U.S. Sen. Connie Mack - is a big help.  Mack can now go to potential donors and tell them it's time to get on board.

And the poll results are particularly dismal for Hasner who falls behind the unimpressive campaign of McCalister. As for LeMieux, if the poll is right, the former U.S. Senator continues to have a tough time convincing Florida Republicans that he deserves to go back to Washington.

But is Brown right to draw the conclusion that Mack is so strong the other candidates should consider quitting?

Nope.

Brown's comments about Quinnipiac polls have increasingly had little to do with political reality. He tends to offer opinions that seem out character for what should be an analytical look at the polling results

For example, in this poll, the Q once again looks at Florida Gov. Rick Scott's job approval  (36 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove) .

Brown describes those numbers with "Scott’s job approval remains in the toilet."  

Hardly an academic approach.

The poll suggests that Mack (40 percent)  and Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson (42 percent)  are in a dead heat.

Brown concludes:  “The fact that Mack is essentially tied with Nelson, who has been a statewide political figure for two decades, should set off warning bells at Democratic headquarters.”

Perhaps, but Brown jumps to a conclusion that a single poll, a year before the election, does not necessarily support. 

Finally, Brown gives us this tidbit:

“In a race as close as the Nelson-Mack affair could become, how President Barack Obama does in the Sunshine State in his re-election could play a major role in deciding who wins the Senate seat,” said Brown.

While Crowley Political Report is delighted to have Brown's opinion, it must be noted that there is nothing in the Q-poll that asks anything about Obama or his impact on the Florida U.S. Senate race in 2012.

The Quinnipiac Poll can be a useful look at a moment-in-time in the campaign when it sticks to the polls results. The meaningless commentary, however, casts doubts on the university's ability to understand its own data.

 

 

 

 


Florida voters trust Obama and Romney

A new Quinnipiac Unviersity poll released today suggests that Florida voters are evenly divided between Republican Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama.  While these results have little meaning at this point in the 2012 election, there are some interesting tidbits in the poll.

First, the most worrisome number for Obama is 83 percent.

That is the percentage of Florida voters who said they are either "very dissatisfied" (52 percent), or "somewhat dissatisfied" (23 percent), when asked what they think about "the way things are going in the nation today."

The poll fails to explore that question further, so we don't know whether these voters are dissatisfied with Obama, Congress, Wall Street, or all of the above.

Still, no sitting president wants to enter an election year with those kinds of numbers. Dissatisfied voters also are persuadeable voters and that's a good sign for Republicans.

The number one issue for Florida voters remains the economy (55 percent), followed by the federal deficit (13 percent), and health care (11 percent). All other issues were in signal digits.

With few signs of a significantly improving economy between now and November 2012, the dissatisfaction numbers and top issues concerns are not likely to change. This should worry the White House which needs Florida's 29 electoral votes to win a second term.

Good news for Obama - Florida voters believe he is "honest and trustworthy" (52 percent).  But Mitt Romney did as well as Obama with 51 percent.  Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich hover between 37 percent and 40 percent.

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CNN TIME Florida poll Romney 30, Cain 18, Perry 9

Texas Gov. Rick Perry seems to have little traction with Florida Republicans while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney clings to a commanding lead with Herman Cain following in second place. 

Well maybe.

The sample of 401 registered GOP voters is a tad small. The margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent which is a tad large.

Tadding aside, the important thing is that at this stage of a campaign it's all about headlines and perceptions. 

Here's what the poll really tells us - despite some grumbling, Florida's GOP voters are comfortable with Romney.  Here's what the poll doesn't tell us - who is going to show up to vote?

If you watch the dance in teh 2012 Florida's U.S. Senate race, plus last year's race for governor and U.S. Senate, it is pretty clear that the most likely voters in the January 31 primary will be Tea Party voters and other who feel similarly.

Not good for Romney.

He is still a tough sell to the Tea Party - a group known to be willing to cut a candidate off at the knees for the slightest perceived transgression.

Could Rick Perry take his place? Maybe. But at 9 percent in this poll - tied with Newt Gingrich - it's pretty clear that Florida Republicans remain unimpressed. 

The wild card remains Cain. He's popular with Tea Party and may finally be putting together the money and Florida organization he needs to have a shot.

We're less than 100 days away from the Jan. 31 primary - and the candidates still have to deal with Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Enjoy the poll - but don't take it too seriously.

Consider this, 50 percent of those surveyed said they might change their mind.

The results: Romney 30%   Cain 18%    Gingrich 9%    Perry 9%    Paul 6%    Bachmann 4%    Huntsman 1%    Santorum 1%    No opinion 14%

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Florida GOP thanks Rick Perry for breakfast votes for Herman Cain

TEAPARTY

 Herman Cain whooped Rick Perry soundly in Florida Republican Party straw poll Saturday leaving one critical question - Does the Florida GOP still exist or is it now the Florida Tea Party?

Cain - the Godfather's pizza guy. Mr. 9-9-9.

He left Perry drowning in tomato sauce. Cain got 37 percent of the more than 2,500 votes cast. Perry got 15 percent. Romney, who decided not to participate in Presidency 5, got 14 percent.

The sad candidacy of the strident, anti-everything Rick Santorum got nearly 11 percent followed by his political twin, Ron Paul at a tad over 10 percent.

Poor Perry. His swaggering Texas image crumbles in every debate. The delegates may have been disappointed when Perry looked lost at Thursday's CPAC debate, but by golly he bought them breakfast.

Perry told them they were important. He said Florida was important. Shucks,  Presidency 5 was supposed to be a major jumping off point for the Perry campaign.

Is Perry doomed?

No.

Is Cain going to be the GOP nominee?

No.

Will the Sunday talk shows go on and on and on about this with dire warnings that Perry better get his act together? (Note: think Ames, Iowa and Michele Bachmann).

Yes.

Does anybody at this point really understand what is going on with Florida Republicans?

No.

Is the Florida Republican Party being taken over by the Tea Party?

Yes.

And who is the leader of the Florida Tea Party?

Gov. Rick Scott.

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