Campaign Ads

Baby Got PAC airing new TV ad tonight for Marco Rubio

Yes it is an odd name for a PAC, but Baby Got PAC is backed by a multi-millionaire supporting Marco Rubio.

The first ad, which is below, is expected air tonight on Fox Business ahead of the Republican presidential debate. 

GOP rich guy John Jordan is behind the PAC. The ad was put together by Florida political consultant Rick Wilson. 

The ad starts with a gloomy "a world gone out of control" approach and then asks "and they wonder why we're angry?"

Next the ad says Baby Got PAC had to decide "which conservative candidate to support." It quickly dismisses Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Ben Carson.  (Note the ad does not mention Jeb Bush).

Instead, the ad suggests the answers comes from the Democrats - the candidate the fear most.

And not just any Democrat. 

Hillary Clinton.

See for yourself.


Marco Rubio new video says Jeb Bush loves him

There is no question that the love affair between Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush is a tad strained. Jeb Bush's Right to Rise PAC is about to launch a series of attacks on Rubio that suggest just how desperate the Bush has become to eek out higher poll numbers.

In what is certainly an effort to remind voters that Jeb once loved Marco, the Rubio campaign put out this video today.

Their fight for the Republican presidential nomination is becoming increasingly bitter.

Nothing is more hurtful than a torn Valentine.

Dubbed, "Before the phony attacks" the video reminds us about all the kind things Bush said about Rubio.

While it is greatly exaggerated to say Bush, as governor, was a mentor to House Speaker Rubio, there was a strong political love affair.

Not anymore.


New Jeb Bush video slams Hillary Clinton but is she the right target?

 In a new campaign video, Jeb Bush goes after Hillary Clinton as if she is the one he has to defeat.  Perhaps it is the right strategy to ignore his Republican rivals for the GOP presidential nomination. 

Still, this seems like an odd campaign ad to release just hours before tonight's Republican debate. Would Bush have been better off taking on Donald Trump, Ben Carson or Marco Rubio? 

Here's the video:


Jeb Bush forced to cut staff as campaign falters, is dropping out next?

JEB BUSH _Things are looking grim for Jeb Bush's campaign. He is laying off staff and cutting salaries while he struggles to woo Republican voters. Even Florida, where is ran three races for governor - losing one and winning twice, is looking grim.

Recently national and state polls have Bush in singles digits. Even in Florida he is coming up fourth. Donors are nervous. Supporters are having second thoughts. The campaign is in damage control.

One long-time Bush acolyte now thinks Bush may quit the race by the end of the year.

Another, believes Bush cannot surpass Marco Rubio. Another laments that maybe people were right when they said voters would not support a "third Bush."

The most surprising thing about conversations this week was the number of people who wondered if Bush would finally call it quits.

"There comes a point where you just have to accept the reality that maybe this is not going to happen," said a Washington GOP consultant.

No one wanted to be named because they still have deep feelings for Bush and wanted to be free to speak candidly.

Part of Bush's problem has been his own flubs on the campaign trail - the most recent being his description of Supergirl as "hot." Generally not the kind of think presidential candidates say - although that seems pretty mild compared to some of Donald Trump's more outrageous statements.

And then there is this new ad from Right to Rise, the Bush PAC.  It features a number of former Florida elected officials and lobbyists, yes lobbyists, who say Bush was just swell as governor. Even some of the former officials are now lobbyists.

Now how do you campaign about "changing Washington" with an ad featuring lobbyists praising you?

Good lord.

Here is the ad: 



Below it the campaign's explanation for the firings and other changes. It reads a lot like any company announcing "restructuring" and promising that all will be fine after the changes are completed. 

From the Bush campaign:

Message Points: Campaign Update

Top Line Message Points:

• Jeb is in this race for the long haul. We have made investments that have allowed us to do what serious, national campaigns must do to be competitive in the primary and general elections, including:

• Growing a real ground game in the early primary and caucus states; • Building a sophisticated data and digital operation; • Rolling out a serious policy agenda; • Getting on the ballot in every state in the nation.

• It’s no secret that the contours of this race have changed from what was anticipated at the start. We would be less than forthcoming if we said we predicted in June that a reality television star supporting Canadian-style single-payer health care and partial-birth abortion would be leading the GOP Primary.

• Ensuring we are in the most competitive position possible in this unpredictable field requires we remain as deft as possible, making strategic decisions quickly and intelligently.

• We are in this campaign to win. We will take every single step necessary to ensure Jeb is the Republican nominee and next President of the United States. We are unapologetic about adjusting our game plan to meet the evolving dynamics of this race to ensure that outcome.

• In order to achieve this end, the campaign is making aggressive changes to our campaign structure, putting as much money as possible into voter contact, and winning primaries and caucuses.

Campaign Structure:


Continue reading "Jeb Bush forced to cut staff as campaign falters, is dropping out next?" »

New Jeb Bush ad knocks old order but is that the really the Bush family

 This new campaign ad for Jeb Bush comes from Right to Rise PAC, run by one of Bush's top advisers, Mike Murphy. 

The ad begins with a shot of President Obama and Hillary Clinton appearing to be on the steps of Air Force One. The video quickly shifts to Bush saying "We need to disrupt the old order in Washington, D.C."

Bush appears in the ad speaking to a "town hall" gathering in what Donald Trump might call a "high energy" fashion.

The "old order" theme is interesting for Bush considering his family history. From his grandfather who was a U.S. Senator to his father who held several political offices before becoming vice president and then president to his brother George W., the Bush family has been part of Washington for most of the past 60 years.

Sen. Prescott Bush held office from 1952 to 1963.

George H.W. Bush was a congressman from 1967 to 1971, U.N. Ambassador 71-73, RNC chairman, 73-74, Chief of Liaison Office in China, 74-75, CIA director, 76-77, Vice President 81-89, President 89-93.

George W. Bush was president 2001 to 2009.

There are not a lot of gaps there in the Bush's family time spent involved in Washington politics.

Apparently, the definition of "old order" is just the last eight years.

One wonders if Bush would be better off embracing the family's Washington legacy than pretending he's not part of it while dearly trying to extend it.


New Jeb Bush campaign ad says this is Jeb just being Jeb

 There are two distinct approaches underway with campaign ads about Jeb Bush. Both hit on the same themes - golly if you elect Jeb the economy will grow 4 percent. The Right to Rise version is Republican blah, while the Bush campaign version is a bit edgy.

Both ads, however, leave a serious question - do voters get excited about 4 percent growth?

Certainly the campaign ad does a better job of selling the notion but still, are folks going home and saying, "I'm voting for the Bush guy so we can 4 percent."

At this point we'll note that some the numbers used in the ads take some liberty with the facts. You can learn more about that here.

More importantly, is this 4 percent theme going to get Bush's campaign out of the doldrums.

Much of the political conversation about Bush's campaign for Republican nomination has been trending negative. What once seen as a powerful campaign destined to be at the top of the GOP heap, is now being portrayed as a campaign doggedly hanging in there, confident less in the candidate himself than it huge bank account.

Consider this analysis  yesterday from Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith:

When Marco Rubio launched his presidential campaign in the spring, a lot of people wondered how he would ever emerge from the shadow of his mentor, Jeb Bush.

 On Monday, as Sen. Rubio campaigned to an overflow crowd in a sprawling Central Florida development loaded with tens of thousands of relatively new Florida Republicans, the more immediate question was how Bush might escape the shadow of Rubio.

And there is this is a long-look at Bush's campaign in today's Politico.

“I don’t know if it’s panic or paranoia in Miami, but they are losing [Scott] Walker people to Marco, and if you say what’s true, they get mad,” said one Bush donor, who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity. “I think it’s just reflective of what’s been going on for the past month or so and the way the race, at least in the establishment lane, has shifted. It’s really Jeb or Marco now. Marco’s fundraising has picked up, and Jeb’s has stayed flat.”

Another Bush donor invited to Miami, assessing the state of anxiety within the former Florida governor’s operation on a scale of 1 to 10, put the panic level at a “6 or 7.”

Publicly, the campaign insists it is sticking to its game plan. But that plan could quickly crumble if the more than $24 ad buy in early caucus and primary states doesn't significantly boost Bush's numbers.

If the campaign is still in single digits in November....expect a major campaign changes or risk of collapse making the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary all the more threatening.

Do these ads work?

Here's vanilla: 



 Here's a little pumpkin spice: 


New Right to Rise web ad puts Donald Trump in a dark place

 Well this ad starts out a bit spooky. Heavy music, dark scenes and a ranting Donald Trump begin a new minute-long web ad by the Jeb Bush Right to Rise PAC.

The ad, launched today, is part of the campaign advertising blitz in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada aimed at pulling Bush's poll numbers and pulling Trump's down. No one in the Bush campaign envisioned their candidate being in single digits at this point of the campaign.

While the ad starts out dark and quickly shifts to the proposed GOP savior - Jeb!


A different kind of ad from Jeb Bush to Hispanic voters

In an interesting twist, a new Bush campaign ad aimed at Hispanic voters has Jeb speaking Spanish and his  Mexican-born wife, Columba, speaking English. 

As first reported by the Washington Post, this ad is the first time Mrs. Bush has been a focus point of the campaign.

"I have lived over half my life here. We all have the same interests, the same feelings," says Mrs. Bush. "We go to church every Sunday. We have celebrations with the family and we keep our traditions. But at the end it’s just that, faith, friends and family."

 While speaking Spanish, Jeb tells viewers, "To me, Hispanic culture is very important and positive. . .Hispanics contribute more every day to our culture; they are an integral part of the American dream."

 The ad is peppered with family photos. As the Post noted, the ad is also a striking rebuke of Donald Trump who has insisted that Bush should speak English. 


Right to Rise campaign ad takes a low energy approach to Jeb Bush

 If Right to Rise is a tad miffed at Donald Trump's accusation that Jeb Bush is low energy, this campaign ad would seem to suggest that Right to Rise is fine with that characterization.

Right to Rise takes away the ! and gives viewers just JEB.

What's a Jeb without !

The ad begins with a figure in shadow who - hold your hats - is really Jeb. The tactic assumes, correctly, that few voters outside of Florida know much about Jeb other than the fact that his last name is Bush.

A male voice says, "As governor he helped create 1.3 million new jobs. He vetoed billions in government spending. He cut taxes $19 billion, balanced 8 budgets, and shrank state government. He took on unions and won with new accountability and over 200 new charter schools.

"The state was Florida. The governor was Jeb Bush. Proven conservative. Real results - JEB."

There are a number of at lease slight exaggerations in these statements - Bush was required by the Florida Constitution to submit balanced budgets every year. 

This is a traditional introduction ad. Not flashy. Hit's the topics polls suggest work with voters. American flag. Men, women, workers, minority, hard hats. An ad style that is decades old.  

What will Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary voters think?


Marco Rubio video tells supporters not to worry about his campaign

Florida Senator Marco Rubio started out his presidential campaign as one of the most talked about Republican candidates. Some GOP leaders saw him as the brightest star in the Republican galaxy.

Today, his star has fizzled a bit under the supernova that is Donald Trump. Rubio has faded into deep single digits in the polls and can take some solace from the fact that fellow Floridian Jeb Bush isn't doing much better.

In an unusual, and lengthy video (more than 11 minutes), Rubio reminds supporters that he was expected to lose the Senate race in the Republican primary against Charlie Crist. The video, which is being distributed by an email also asking for donations, is telling supporters to keep the faith.

Another take-away from the video is that much of what he is saying today, is repeated nearly word-for-word with what Rubio was saying five-years ago. 


Jeb Bush New Hampshire campaign ad looks a bit tense

 Jeb Bush's first campaign ad in New Hampshire feels a bit tense. Anyone who has followed Bush closely might recognize a hint of frustration in his tone and face. 

The 30-second ad begins with Bush saying, "We have an important choice to make about the direction of our country."

But then Bush reverts to one of his most difficult sales pitches:

"If you want more DC politicians or more self-promoters you've got options."

You could look at that phrase and presume he is talking about folks like Marco Rubio (DC politician) and Donald Trump (self-promoter).

But since the start of Bush's campaign, his angst about "DC politicians" has had a bit of a hollow ring. It is hard to sound a like a convincing outsider when your grandfather, father and brother have been "DC politicians" and you are longing to be one.

As for self-promotion - while Trump is in a class all to himself - the very nature of politics is self promotion.

Bush then goes on to say he is "offering something different, leadership, ideas, and a proven conservative record."

Different? Perhaps. But there are other candidates who can make the same claims. And it's not a terribly original sound-bite. It is not like the other candidates are claiming to have no leadership or ideas and a liberal record.

Bush goes on to say that as Florida governor he cut taxes and spending and "balanced the budget." Which every Florida governor and legislature does because it required by law.

His final shot - clearly aimed at Trump, is "anybody can talk, I've delivered."

What is not delivered here is a compelling ad.

New Right to Rise ad compares Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Moments after Donald Trump signed the Republican pledge to support the party nominee and not start a third party, Jeb Bush's Right to Rise PAC offered a new ad in an effort to once again suggest that Trump has more in common with Hillary Clinton than Republicans.

One conflicting note - Jeb Bush told Good Morning America today that he would support Trump if he were the GOP nominee. Apparently that support comes regardless of whether Trump once supported Clinton.

Here is the new ad: 


Jeb Bush video slings the L word at Donald Trump

You may want to hide your children. This language may not be suitable for the kids. Jeb Bush is using the "L" word. In a new video, Bush is calling Donald Trump a LIBERAL.

Oh heavens.

Just when it looked like there was no way for Bush to stop Trump's march up the polls, Bush throws out the "L" word. Surely Republicans are gasping. 

This video shows up a day after Trump slams Bush in a 15 second video about Bush's views on immigration. It a vicious video. Bush's response much less so.

Of course it does beg the question - is this still a "joyful" campaign for Bush?


Donald Trump ad attacks Jeb Bush on immigration

Donald Trump's ad attacking Jeb Bush is very short but brutal. In 15 seconds, Trump takes Bush's comment that for most immigrants coming to the United States "is an act of love," and juxtaposes Bush's remark with apparent pictures of convicted felons.

It is a huge distortion of Bush's beliefs about immigration. 

But it is also a hint at just how ugly this campaign for the Republican presidential nomination is going to get.


Scott Walker goes negative on Jeb Bush

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush made the mistake of telling the truth to a Nevada audience. Now Bush is getting hit with two new ads by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who is suggesting that Bush is simply not tough enough on Iran.

Walker's campaign pulls this snippet from Bush's remarks about the Iran deal: "One thing I won't do is to say . . . I'm going to tear up the agreement the first day."

Bush has explained that no one taking office would have the people in place, the national security briefing, and other aspects of assuming the presidency to honestly proclaim the deal would be scotched on the first day in office.

During his July appearance in Nevada Bush said: “At 12:01 on January, whatever it is, 19th [2017], I will not probably have a confirmed secretary of state; I will not have a confirmed national security team in place; I will not have consulted with our allies. I will not have had the intelligence briefings to have made a decision. If you’re running for president, I think it’s important to be mature and thoughtful about this.” 

Many took Bush's comment as a shot at Walker who earlier proclaimed: "We need to terminate the bad deal with Iran on the very first day in office."

Perhaps the most notable thing about this exchange is that, so far, Donald Trump is not a part of it.

Here's the 30 second Walker ad: 


And here is the longer, slightly tougher version:


Right to Rise web ads in New Hampshire for Jeb Bush

If you are a reader of the Manchester, New Hampshire based Union Leader, you are seeing a series of ads on the newspapers website touting the record of former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

The first of the four ads below, has Bush taking pride in getting rid of "poor performing" state workers and, eliminating seniority. (oddly, it is Bush's "seniority as a political leader that is one of his selling point for becoming the third Bush president).


Right to Rise also brags that Bush was a tax cutter. Opponents might argue that his tax cuts reduced state revenue to such a degree that Florida was in weaker shape to deal with the Great Recession. Still, tax cuts are loved by most voters (as long as they keep getting the tax funded services they want).

Jeb AD NH 2

Continue reading "Right to Rise web ads in New Hampshire for Jeb Bush" »

Alan Grayson web ad attacks Patrick Murphy

Florida's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is a bare-knuckles affair with a touch of humor and a shade of meanness. Orlando area Congressman Alan Grayson's first web ad is mostly humor featuring a little cartoon character. 

So far, Treasure Coast Congressman Patrick Murphy has largely ignored Grayson. One suspects that is not going to last much longer.




Alan Grayson with guts for the Senate

Not many candidates for the U.S. Senate would have a campaign website dubbed "with guts." But then not many candidates are like Congressman Alan Grayson.

Today Grayson announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for Senate. The Florida congressman will be pressuring the party establishment's favorite, Congressman Patrick Murphy.

Grayson's pitch is hard left with themes echoing the liberal movement that once was hallmark of Democratic candidates.

Grayson is an unpredictable candidate prone to say whatever is on his mind in language that is colorful and leaves one no doubt about his thinking.

With four presidential candidates calling Florida home, Grayson's addition to the Senate race ensures that the Sunshine State will be a fascinating place to be during the 2016 campaign.

Grayson's website:

Jeb Bush video takes on teacher unions and Hillary Clinton

 Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has a new video that starts with him reminding voters that, "I took on the teachers union in Florida."  The 2016 Republican presidential candidate also criticizes Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for only having "three bills that she sponsored" become law.

In the video Bush says: "Conservatives can be elected president of the United States. I am absolutely convinced of it."

Well that is true. One could suggest that his father and brother were conservatives who got elected president. And there was that guy Reagan. 

But we digress.

Bush goes on to say, "this about being a beacon of peace and prosperity for the world."

This ad is brought to you by Jeb! 2016.