There are two distinct approaches underway with campaign ads about Jeb Bush. Both hit on the same themes - golly if you elect Jeb the economy will grow 4 percent. The Right to Rise version is Republican blah, while the Bush campaign version is a bit edgy.
Both ads, however, leave a serious question - do voters get excited about 4 percent growth?
Certainly the campaign ad does a better job of selling the notion but still, are folks going home and saying, "I'm voting for the Bush guy so we can 4 percent."
At this point we'll note that some the numbers used in the ads take some liberty with the facts. You can learn more about that here.
More importantly, is this 4 percent theme going to get Bush's campaign out of the doldrums.
Much of the political conversation about Bush's campaign for Republican nomination has been trending negative. What once seen as a powerful campaign destined to be at the top of the GOP heap, is now being portrayed as a campaign doggedly hanging in there, confident less in the candidate himself than it huge bank account.
Consider this analysis yesterday from Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith:
When Marco Rubio launched his presidential campaign in the spring, a lot of people wondered how he would ever emerge from the shadow of his mentor, Jeb Bush.
On Monday, as Sen. Rubio campaigned to an overflow crowd in a sprawling Central Florida development loaded with tens of thousands of relatively new Florida Republicans, the more immediate question was how Bush might escape the shadow of Rubio.
And there is this is a long-look at Bush's campaign in today's Politico.
“I don’t know if it’s panic or paranoia in Miami, but they are losing [Scott] Walker people to Marco, and if you say what’s true, they get mad,” said one Bush donor, who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity. “I think it’s just reflective of what’s been going on for the past month or so and the way the race, at least in the establishment lane, has shifted. It’s really Jeb or Marco now. Marco’s fundraising has picked up, and Jeb’s has stayed flat.”
Another Bush donor invited to Miami, assessing the state of anxiety within the former Florida governor’s operation on a scale of 1 to 10, put the panic level at a “6 or 7.”
Publicly, the campaign insists it is sticking to its game plan. But that plan could quickly crumble if the more than $24 ad buy in early caucus and primary states doesn't significantly boost Bush's numbers.
If the campaign is still in single digits in November....expect a major campaign changes or risk of collapse making the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary all the more threatening.
Do these ads work?
Here's a little pumpkin spice: