Crowley Political Report

Jeb Bush got shoved into the controversy of keeping Redskins for the name of Washington's football team during a radio interview to air Friday on Sirius XM.

"I don't think the team should change it," said Bush sounding incredulous at the idea. "I don't think [the team] should change it. But again, I don't think politicians ought to have any say in that to be honest with you. I don't find it offensive. Native American tribes generally don't find it offensive."

Bush then goes on to chat about Florida State University Seminoles.

"We had a similar kind of flap with FSU if you recall, the Seminoles, and the Seminole tribe itself kind of came to the defense of the university and it subsided. It's a sport for crying out loud. It's a football team. Washington has a huge fan base…I'm missing something here I guess."

Yes. Yes he is.

Many Native Americans oppose the name saying it is racial slur. Native American groups have organized protests. Some members of Congress want to force a name change. 

Bush may be a touch too dismissive on this subject.

Listen to Bush here: AUDIO: http://bit.ly/1h7Ai8Y

From the Jeb Bush campaign:

 JEB BUSH: UNLEASH THE ENERGY REVOLUTION

“Taken together, these policies will fully unleash the Energy Revolution, creating more jobs, higher wages, cheaper gas and cheaper electricity, while better protecting our interests abroad and our environment.”
 

Governor Jeb Bush
September 29, 2015

Click Here To Read
 

Americans continue to endure anemic economic growth of barely 2% a year. For most people, it continues to be too hard to find a good paying job, get a raise or simply make ends meet. Some call this “the new normal,” but it is unacceptable. With the right policies and leadership, we can, in the near-term, achieve 4% growth and restore the opportunity for every American to rise. But that will only happen if we reverse damaging federal energy policies.

The Energy Revolution and Growth

Energy is not just a sector of our economy. It is also an input into every other economic sector. That means cheaper, more reliable energy benefits American families in multiple ways. More domestic energy leads to more jobs, higher wages, lower gas prices and smaller electricity bills. In short, it means more money in people’s pockets, allowing them more freedom to make more choices for themselves and their children.

…

 A Once-in-a-Generation Economic Opportunity

The U.S. is still in the early stages of capitalizing on this economic opportunity. The Energy Revolution creates jobs in the oil and gas fields. Researchers at Dartmouth University found that every $1 million of oil and gas extracted from an oil or gas well generates, within 100 miles of that well, an additional $263,000 in wages and 2.8 new jobs. It also creates jobs throughout the oil and gas supply chain.

 There are two distinct approaches underway with campaign ads about Jeb Bush. Both hit on the same themes - golly if you elect Jeb the economy will grow 4 percent. The Right to Rise version is Republican blah, while the Bush campaign version is a bit edgy.

Both ads, however, leave a serious question - do voters get excited about 4 percent growth?

Certainly the campaign ad does a better job of selling the notion but still, are folks going home and saying, "I'm voting for the Bush guy so we can 4 percent."

At this point we'll note that some the numbers used in the ads take some liberty with the facts. You can learn more about that here.

More importantly, is this 4 percent theme going to get Bush's campaign out of the doldrums.

Much of the political conversation about Bush's campaign for Republican nomination has been trending negative. What once seen as a powerful campaign destined to be at the top of the GOP heap, is now being portrayed as a campaign doggedly hanging in there, confident less in the candidate himself than it huge bank account.

Consider this analysis  yesterday from Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith:

When Marco Rubio launched his presidential campaign in the spring, a lot of people wondered how he would ever emerge from the shadow of his mentor, Jeb Bush.

 On Monday, as Sen. Rubio campaigned to an overflow crowd in a sprawling Central Florida development loaded with tens of thousands of relatively new Florida Republicans, the more immediate question was how Bush might escape the shadow of Rubio.

And there is this is a long-look at Bush's campaign in today's Politico.

“I don’t know if it’s panic or paranoia in Miami, but they are losing [Scott] Walker people to Marco, and if you say what’s true, they get mad,” said one Bush donor, who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity. “I think it’s just reflective of what’s been going on for the past month or so and the way the race, at least in the establishment lane, has shifted. It’s really Jeb or Marco now. Marco’s fundraising has picked up, and Jeb’s has stayed flat.”

Another Bush donor invited to Miami, assessing the state of anxiety within the former Florida governor’s operation on a scale of 1 to 10, put the panic level at a “6 or 7.”

Publicly, the campaign insists it is sticking to its game plan. But that plan could quickly crumble if the more than $24 ad buy in early caucus and primary states doesn't significantly boost Bush's numbers.

If the campaign is still in single digits in November....expect a major campaign changes or risk of collapse making the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary all the more threatening.

Do these ads work?

Here's vanilla: 

 Here's a little pumpkin spice: 

Ouch! Good golly, Florida House Speaker-designate Richard Corcoran got a whoopin' on Fox News as a panel of conservative commentators ridiculed Corcoran for his spending of $238,000 on "expensive dinners, cigars, wine, fancy hotels, cufflinks for $1,000....this is crazy stuff."

At one point, Florida Republicans are urged not to let Corcoran, who has vowed to rein in special interests, become Speaker.

Hat tip to Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times for spotting the video below.

Marco Rubio has gone from the most talked about potential Republican Party presidential nominee to nearly Marco who? He can blame three Floridians - Ben Carson, Donald Trump and Jeb Bush.

Okay, so Trump is only a part-time Floridian - so is half of South Florida. 

Rubio's campaign sent out a nearly 12 minute video rehashing his come from behind victory for the U.S. Senate at a time when most Republicans thought he was out of his political mind to take on a sitting governor who wanted to move to Washington. 

(Side note: Charlie Crist might still want to go to Washington only this time as a U.S. Representative.)

Meanwhile, Bush's campaign continues to try to make the GOP contest one featuring him and Trump. Bush appears to be simply dismissing the rest of the field despite the fact that Bush's support has collapsed in recent polls showing him in single digits.

This week, Bush's PAC, Right to Rise, starting spending $24 million on television ads, in an effort to push up Bush's poll numbers and run a few more Republican candidates out of the race.

There is huge potential downside for Bush. What if all that money does not buy him love? What happens if Bush is still mired in single digits a month from now? And if the Bush campaign collapses who inherits the mantle of establishment frontrunner?

Tonight may be Rubio's best chance. He needs to take on Bush directly. He needs to prove that he is as tough as he talks.

Look, Rubio loves to talk about taking on Iran. By golly give him the White House and Rubio will show them who is boss. Yet, he seems to fear taking on the one guy who may be more of a roadblock than Trump or Carson to his seat in the Oval Office - Jeb!

If Rubio fails tonight to re-position his campaign, he may have a tough time moving ahead of Bush.

 Well this ad starts out a bit spooky. Heavy music, dark scenes and a ranting Donald Trump begin a new minute-long web ad by the Jeb Bush Right to Rise PAC.

The ad, launched today, is part of the campaign advertising blitz in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada aimed at pulling Bush's poll numbers and pulling Trump's down. No one in the Bush campaign envisioned their candidate being in single digits at this point of the campaign.

While the ad starts out dark and moody....it quickly shifts to the proposed GOP savior - Jeb!

In an interesting twist, a new Bush campaign ad aimed at Hispanic voters has Jeb speaking Spanish and his  Mexican-born wife, Columba, speaking English. 

As first reported by the Washington Post, this ad is the first time Mrs. Bush has been a focus point of the campaign.

"I have lived over half my life here. We all have the same interests, the same feelings," says Mrs. Bush. "We go to church every Sunday. We have celebrations with the family and we keep our traditions. But at the end it’s just that, faith, friends and family."

 While speaking Spanish, Jeb tells viewers, "To me, Hispanic culture is very important and positive. . .Hispanics contribute more every day to our culture; they are an integral part of the American dream."

 The ad is peppered with family photos. As the Post noted, the ad is also a striking rebuke of Donald Trump who has insisted that Bush should speak English. 

 If Right to Rise is a tad miffed at Donald Trump's accusation that Jeb Bush is low energy, this campaign ad would seem to suggest that Right to Rise is fine with that characterization.

Right to Rise takes away the ! and gives viewers just JEB.

What's a Jeb without !

The ad begins with a figure in shadow who - hold your hats - is really Jeb. The tactic assumes, correctly, that few voters outside of Florida know much about Jeb other than the fact that his last name is Bush.

A male voice says, "As governor he helped create 1.3 million new jobs. He vetoed billions in government spending. He cut taxes $19 billion, balanced 8 budgets, and shrank state government. He took on unions and won with new accountability and over 200 new charter schools.

"The state was Florida. The governor was Jeb Bush. Proven conservative. Real results - JEB."

There are a number of at lease slight exaggerations in these statements - Bush was required by the Florida Constitution to submit balanced budgets every year. 

This is a traditional introduction ad. Not flashy. Hit's the topics polls suggest work with voters. American flag. Men, women, workers, minority, hard hats. An ad style that is decades old.  

What will Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary voters think?

During his appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was asked about the nastiness of political campaigns and governing.

"I'm going to say something that is heretic I guess, I don't think Barack Obama has bad motives. I just think he is wrong on a lot of issues," Bush said. 

Bush goes on to say that "if you start with the premise that people have good motives you can find common ground."

Then Bush adds, "in state Capitols all across the country....this doesn't happen to the same extent it does in Washington."

Pause.

Really?

You mean, like Tallahassee? The Florida Legislature?

Here's the video. 

Florida Senator Marco Rubio started out his presidential campaign as one of the most talked about Republican candidates. Some GOP leaders saw him as the brightest star in the Republican galaxy.

Today, his star has fizzled a bit under the supernova that is Donald Trump. Rubio has faded into deep single digits in the polls and can take some solace from the fact that fellow Floridian Jeb Bush isn't doing much better.

In an unusual, and lengthy video (more than 11 minutes), Rubio reminds supporters that he was expected to lose the Senate race in the Republican primary against Charlie Crist. The video, which is being distributed by an email also asking for donations, is telling supporters to keep the faith.

Another take-away from the video is that much of what he is saying today, is repeated nearly word-for-word with what Rubio was saying five-years ago. 

 Jeb Bush's first campaign ad in New Hampshire feels a bit tense. Anyone who has followed Bush closely might recognize a hint of frustration in his tone and face. 

The 30-second ad begins with Bush saying, "We have an important choice to make about the direction of our country."

But then Bush reverts to one of his most difficult sales pitches:

"If you want more DC politicians or more self-promoters you've got options."

You could look at that phrase and presume he is talking about folks like Marco Rubio (DC politician) and Donald Trump (self-promoter).

But since the start of Bush's campaign, his angst about "DC politicians" has had a bit of a hollow ring. It is hard to sound a like a convincing outsider when your grandfather, father and brother have been "DC politicians" and you are longing to be one.

As for self-promotion - while Trump is in a class all to himself - the very nature of politics is self promotion.

Bush then goes on to say he is "offering something different, leadership, ideas, and a proven conservative record."

Different? Perhaps. But there are other candidates who can make the same claims. And it's not a terribly original sound-bite. It is not like the other candidates are claiming to have no leadership or ideas and a liberal record.

Bush goes on to say that as Florida governor he cut taxes and spending and "balanced the budget." Which every Florida governor and legislature does because it required by law.

His final shot - clearly aimed at Trump, is "anybody can talk, I've delivered."

What is not delivered here is a compelling ad.

Moments after Donald Trump signed the Republican pledge to support the party nominee and not start a third party, Jeb Bush's Right to Rise PAC offered a new ad in an effort to once again suggest that Trump has more in common with Hillary Clinton than Republicans.

One conflicting note - Jeb Bush told Good Morning America today that he would support Trump if he were the GOP nominee. Apparently that support comes regardless of whether Trump once supported Clinton.

Here is the new ad: 

 Today on Good Morning America, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said Donald Trump is "trying to insult his way to the presidency. It's not going to work people want an uplifting, hopeful message."

After spending several minutes describing Trump as basically unfit to occupy the White House, when asked if he would support Trump if he becomes the Republican nominee, Bush said, "yeah I would, of course. Of course I would."

So, even though Bush thinks Trump is essentially useless, Bush says he would support him.

If Trump becomes the nominee - don't count on Bush campaigning for him.

Watch the GMA interview below.

One might consider this a tad premature. Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera says he wants to debate U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy. The topic: "Barack Obama's reckless Iran concessions."

Nice political stunt but not likely to happen.

Why you might ask?

Well, Lopez-Cantera is a Republican running for U.S. Senate. He has several primary challengers. He might want to deal with them first.

And, Murphy, a Democrat, also faces a tough Senate primary. 

So, the odds of these two having a debate when neither has won their party nomination appears to be slim. But then, 2016 is turning out to year of unusual politics. 

Maybe we'll be surprised.

Here's the pitch from the Lopez-Cantera campaign:

Lt. Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera called on Representative Patrick Murphy to join him at a joint town hall with Florida voters so Murphy could explain his embrace of Barack Obama's reckless Iran concessions.

“After research and consideration, I chose to oppose the Iran deal, and continue to do so. Patrick Murphy had a choice, and he chose to stand with Barack Obama and the Iranian terror regime and against the security of America and Israel. He chose partisan politics over our national interests and the survival of our closest ally,” said Lopez-Cantera. “The people of Florida deserve more than a press release if he wants to serve in the U.S. Senate; they deserve to see him defend his decision here at home, not from inside the Beltway. I've committed to monthly townhalls if elected. Murphy should at least agree to one.”


“Patrick Murphy said this deal would lead to 'peace in our time.' Setting aside the terrible historical precedent in that phrase, I think he owes Florida voters an explanation of why he endorsed a deal that gives the Iranians a $150 billion to fund their terror networks, allows them to purchase the most advanced weaponry, including ballistic missiles and state of the art anti-aircraft systems, and does nothing to end their threats to destroy Israel.”


“I'd welcome the chance to meet with Representative Murphy at a town hall here in Florida, at a time and location of his convenience to compare our positions on the Iran deal. I'm eager to see how Representative Murphy defends his advocacy of this indefensible and dangerous deal.”

You may want to hide your children. This language may not be suitable for the kids. Jeb Bush is using the "L" word. In a new video, Bush is calling Donald Trump a LIBERAL.

Oh heavens.

Just when it looked like there was no way for Bush to stop Trump's march up the polls, Bush throws out the "L" word. Surely Republicans are gasping. 

This video shows up a day after Trump slams Bush in a 15 second video about Bush's views on immigration. It a vicious video. Bush's response much less so.

Of course it does beg the question - is this still a "joyful" campaign for Bush?