Can Jeb survive the Bush jinx in New Hampshire?
03/13/2015
Today, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush makes his first trip to New Hampshire as a 2016 presidential candidate – a place that has been less than friendly to the Bush clan and could quickly end his quest to be the third Bush with the keys to the White House.
Oops, did you just call Bush a presidential candidate? Indeed. At this point Crowley Political Report refuses to play the game of presidential campaign semantics. Jeb Bush is a presidential candidate and it's a waste of time to pretend otherwise.
Bush knows all too well that the Granite State has been a stone wall for the Bush clan. It begins with Papa Bush who won a stunning upset in the 1980 Iowa caucuses, leaving Ronald Reagan in real danger of seeing his campaign collapse in New Hampshire. Reagan’s internal polls showed him dropping like a rock with George H. W. Bush holding a 21 point lead.
With Reagan his most serious obstacle to the nomination, Bush’s campaign pushed for a one-on-one debate with Reagan. In an effort to avoid legal hassles with the Federal Election Commission, Reagan agreed to pay for the debate which would be put together by the Nashua Telegraph.
The other candidates – Senators Bob Dole and Howard Baker, Congressman Phil Crane and John Anderson – showed up at the debate in the crowded gymnasium of Nashua High School.
Among the crowd nearly 2,500 voters and national reporters was a young journalist from Florida covering his first major presidential debate. Reagan’s campaign plotted with the other candidates. The decision was to sandbag Bush by having Reagan suddenly insist that all the candidates should be permitted to appear in the debate.
Telegraph executive editor and debate moderator Jon Breen objected. The debate was delayed for more than an hour. Bush and Reagan finally took the stage. Reagan attempted to speak to the crowd. Breen cut him off. Reagan stood up quickly looking furious, sat down, and again tried to speak. Breen order his microphone shut off.
Reagan exploded with “I am paying for this microphone Mr. Green.”
Reagan got Breen’s name wrong but it was the moment that would cause Bush’s campaign to collapse. Bush sat quietly in his seat looking like a prep student more concerned about Robert’s Rules of Order. And he simply looked like a guy who wouldn’t play fair.
Bush returned to New Hampshire in 1988, but even after eight years as Reagan’s vice president, he had to work to win the primary getting just 38 percent of the vote in a crowded field. And while Bush won in New Hampshire in 1992, it was against newspaper columninst Pat Buchanan who got 38 percent of the vote against the sitting president.
Twenty years after George H. W. Bush’s embarrassing defeat, Bush’s son, George W. lost the 2000 New Hampshire primary to Arizona Senator John McCain who skipped the Iowa caucuses to concentrate on the Granite State. Bush would have one of the nastiest campaigns in South Carolina history where he managed to defeat McCain all but stopping his presidential bid.
Four years later, President George W. would have not serious competition for the GOP nomination.
So as younger brother Jeb goes to New Hampshire today, he carries with him a family history of defeat in the Granite State. Neither his father nor brother succeeded in the first election there. Victory only came after holding national office, and then against weak or non-existent challengers.
Will 2016 be different than 1980 or 2000?
Will Jeb Bush be the first Bush to win the Granite State on the first try?
Today Bush is scheduled to tour Integra Biosciences in Hudson and then participate in a business meeting with Nashua Chamber of Commerce. He will attend a reception at the home of former state GOP chairman Fergus Cullin, and a private fundraiser for Congressman Frank Guinta in Manchester.
Ronald Reagan's big moment is below:
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