Crowley Political Report

On February 6, 1999, Jeb Bush had been Florida's govenor for just a month. Everything was new to him, from the tiny size of the governor's bathroom door, to fine food at the governor's mansion. He also discovered the power of his voice. 

In an email to Brian Crowley, then political editor of the Palm Beach Post, Bush talked about his first 30 days as governor. 

From [email protected]

Brian, it has been a joyous experience. I get to eat dinner with my family many nights which we didn’t do much of in Miami. Unfortunately, the food at home is verrrrrryyyyy good leaving me with no chance yet to lose any weight. Most important, Columba is happy and so is Noelle. When they are happy, I am as well.

The biggest surprise is the volume of my voice. People listen to what I say and do. I am learning to show more self-restraint so as to not restrict a free flow of thinking that could yield a better decision. That has been hard for me. IN fact, I would say I have a long way to go on this. So far, it has not been a problem since I have known where I want to go on decision but that will change.

I really enjoy the work. It is important and meaningful. Education reform, a drug policy, the largest tax cuts in State history, child welfare and developmentally disabled reform and adequate funding, an ethics package of significance, the Lawton Chiles endowment idea, the end of the bullet train and Powerball and a good solid budget got us off to a good start.

A growing challenge is to focus on the things I need to focus on and slow the pace down for the rest of the team. We got off to a fast and fine start but we need to slow down to follow up and let our partners, the legislature, digest and absorb our suggestions. That will be easier to do with me less visible than I have been.

Well that didn't take long. The liberal American Bridges moved fast to get out this video 24 hours after former Florida Governor Jeb Bush announced a new Leadership PAC to help him figure out if he wants to be president.

It features Republicans who believe Bush should stay home.

This morning, Jeb Bush used Facebook to announce the start of his Leadership PAC - which for all practical purposes makes him a candidate for president. Read our report here. As of about 2:30 this afternoon, the former Florida governor had nearly 1,200 comments on his Facebook post. 

Crowley Political Report looked at more than 200 of the comments and the trend line is not a good one for Bush - at least in Facebook world which is rarely the place to find thoughtful commentary.

Anyway, to spare you from reading the growing number of comments - here's a sample:

Lynne Dube I agree with Mr. Linville ^ - I will not vote for you or any RINO - if you run, you doom this country to another 4 years, at least, of liberalism and the trashing of the Constitution. If you love America - don't run.

Harold Waycasie PLEASE for the love of God do NOT run for President... if you run our country in the same manner in which you operated as Governor of Florida in 2005 when you sat by and allowed Terri Schiavo to be starved to death, then you'll bury this country within a year ....

Glenn Martin Best Governor Florida has ever had. Stay true to the values and process you had as governor and you will go far. I hope you don't stray from them.

Mark Noonan You run, you will lose - and this is coming from a person who voted for you for governor in 1994. You have absolutely zero chance of ever being President of the United States. Leave off it - maybe in 20-30 years your son can do it, but you haven't got a chance.

Robin Cooper another President Bush sounds great to me, Thank You for your service.

Carol Ann Paris We don't like your stand on Illegal Immigrants or your Common Core views....Please pass on becoming a nominee.

Kathleen Coad O'Brien No Jeb and we will not "come around" on Common Core. No more Bush or Clinton, what kind of ego thinks 2 families should run our country for YEARS?

Enrique Rivera About time... a thoughtful and eloquent small "c" conservative... Jeb '16!!!

Genevieve Young Brown No. Please. No.

Kimberly Brummitt I will work on your campaign anyway I can!!!!

Democratic National Committee spokesman Mo Elleithee responds to Jeb Bush's announcement today that he his starting a Leadership PAC as he inches his way toward formally becoming a candidate for president:

From Elleithee:

“Isn’t this what he’s been doing all along? I don’t know what the difference is between ‘thinking about’ running and ‘actively exploring’ running, but I suspect it has a lot to do with keeping his name in the news. However you see it, there’s no parsing this simple fact: Jeb Bush has fully embraced the failed economic agenda that benefits only a select few at the expense of the middle class. That’s not going to change no matter how many different ways he says he may run.”

Jeb Bush who says he was digital before digital was cool, (largely true), took to Facebook to announce the start of a leadership PAC.

Bush says he will "facilliate" conversations. We believe this is wonk talk for "speak with."  Bush also says he will "actively explore" suggesting that he has spent the last 12 months inactively exploring becoming a candidate.

This Facebook note leaves little doubt that in fact, Bush is a candidate.

Here's the note:

In an interview airing this moring on Miami televsion station WPLG, Jeb Bush tells Michael Putney and Glenna Milberg that he his preparing an ebook and will release 250,000 emails from his time a Florida governor from 1999 to 2007. 

"Part of serving or running, both of them, is transparency. So I'll let people make up their mind," Bush said during the interview.

Does this mean Bush is running for president in 2016?

Under Florida's public records laws, the Bush emails are public record. While this is a huge release, it is not clear if he is releasing all emails or whether some are being held back. It may also be a recognition on his part that both the media and other candidates will be trying to get his emails if he should run. 

The entire interview will be broadcast on This Week In South Florida today.

The cost of doing business in Tallahassee continues to rise as campaign spending grows to record levels and lobbyists, companies, and just plain rich folks are asked to pay for it all. Even candidates with no serious opposition asked for and got millions in contributions.

We complete the 2014 cycyle with requests to pony up money for Governor Rick Scott's inaugural. All the special interests will chip in - it's expected. And it happens every four years.

Here's the latest from the Florida Republican Party.

If Jeb Bush is seriously pondering becoming a candidate for president, this in-depth Bloomberg Businessweek story should give him pause. It reveals many of Bush's very complicated business deals including apparent overseas tax dodges, potential problems for a 2016 campaign, and suggests that maybe Bush isn't serious about running after all.

An excerpt from Bloomberg Businessweek:

Documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Nov. 27 list Bush as chairman and manager of a new offshore private equity fund, BH Global Aviation, which raised $61 million in September, largely from foreign ­investors. In November the fund ­incorporated in the United Kingdom and Wales­—a ­structure, several independent finance lawyers say, that operates like a tax haven by allowing overseas investors to avoid U.S. taxes and regulations.

BH Global Aviation is one of at least three such funds Bush has launched in less than two years through his Coral Gables, Fla., company, Britton Hill Holdings. He’s also chairman of a $26 million fund, BH Logistics, established in April with backing from a Chinese conglomerate, and a $40 million fund involved in shale oil exploration, according to documents filed in June and first ­reported on by Bloomberg News.

His flurry of ventures doesn’t suggest someone preparing to run for president, according to a dozen fund managers, lawyers, and ­private-placement agents who were ­apprised of his recent activities by Bloomberg Businessweek. Most private equity funds have a life span of 10 years. While it isn’t impossible that Bush could bail on his investors so soon after taking their money, “that would be unusual,” says Steven Kaplan, a private equity expert at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. One fundraiser for private equity adds that normally you’d be winding down such businesses, rather than expanding them, if you were going to run.

Until now, many people have assumed that Bush’s greatest challenge would be dispelling the perception among Republican primary voters that he’s a moderate in a party dominated by right-wing conservatives. In the wake of Romney’s bruising 2012 loss, however, Bush’s overseas funds, mysterious investors, and foreign entanglements could prove harder to overcome. As a budding private equity mogul, he’s begun to resemble a Mini-Mitt. Bush declined to be interviewed for this article.

Read the entire Bloomberg Businessweek story here.

We are deep into the will he or won't he stage of Jeb Bush for president speculation. Now we have a editorial from the New Jersey Star Ledger calling on Bush to run to force New Jersey Governor Chris Christie out of the race.

"Let's hope he jumps in" says the editorial page today. "He is one of the grown-ups in the Republican Party, a pragmatist who believes in the art of compromise, and he has shown the guts to push back against pressure from the Tea Party on big issues, like immigration and taxes."

Then the Star Ledger offers its real reason for supporting Bush:

If Bush jumps in, that deals a hard blow to the presidential hopes of Gov. Chris Christie, who is trying to stake out that same ground.

So a Bush candidacy would likely hasten the day when Christie gives up, and gets back to doing his job.

Well that's an interesting reason to push for a Bush candidacy. 

But then the editorial concludes:

This is not endorsement of Bush. And yes, the idea of another Bush-Clinton race leaves a sour taste.

But he’s clearly one of the party’s most sensible voices. And if he can start strong, who knows, we might get our governor back and have at least a chance to fix what’s broken at home.

Read the editorial here.