New poll suggests Rick Scott has spent a lot of money for nothing

04/30/2014

Not long ago, Crowley Political Report suggested that if Gov. Rick Scott's poll numbers did not improve his campaign could find itself struggling to explain the bad news to supporters and donors.

Well, the Scott campaign got very bad news today. After spending nearly $7 million over the past two months on campaign ads, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Scott trailing former Gov. Charlie Crist by 10 points.

Crist 48 - Scott 38.

Ouch.

And Crist's lead has actually increased since January 30 when that Q-poll showed Crist leading by 8 points, 46-38.

There are other polls that suggest the race is much closer. But Quinnipiac is one of the polls that gets the most attention. It makes for a miserable meeting in the Scott campaign office. And if that spread doesn't keep them up at night, there is this - Florida voters say 53 - 39 percent that Scott does not deserve reelection.

From the poll news release:

Women back Crist 51 - 33 percent and say 49 - 33 percent that he is more compassionate. Men are divided in the matchup with 44 percent for Crist and 43 percent for Scott, but say 50 - 38 percent that Crist is more compassionate.

Independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 34 percent and say 52 - 31 percent he is more compassionate.Crist's political party shift from Republican to independent to Democratic is a positive thing showing he is a pragmatist, 52 percent of voters, including 60 percent of independent voters, say, while 40 percent say it is negative, showing he has no core beliefs.

"So far, Florida Gov. Rick Scott's television barrage apparently has had no impact on the race. The incumbent has not been able to reduce former Gov. Charlie Crist's lead. In fact, voters see Crist's party switch in a positive light and the incumbent's effort to tie Crist's support for Obamacare has not yet borne fruit," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Scott can still win. It is likely to be a close race as voters start paying more attention in the Fall. But this and other polls suggest Scott's campaign still has some retooling to do.

They can't start soon enough.

Complete poll results on the next page.

From Quinnipiac:

Besides compassion, Crist tops Scott on a number of other measures:
Voters approve 52 - 38 percent of the way Crist handled his job as governor, while Scott gets a negative 42 - 50 percent job approval rating; Crist has a 43 - 36 percent favorability, compared to Scott's negative 39 - 46 percent score; Voters are divided 45 - 43 percent on whether Crist is honest and trustworthy, but say 51 - 38 percent that Scott is not honest and trustworthy; Crist has strong leadership qualities, voters say 55 - 37 percent, compared to Scott's 49 - 44 percent leadership grade; Crist cares about their needs and problems, voters say 48 - 42 percent, while Scott does not care, voters say 55 - 38 percent.
"Florida voters think former Gov. Crist is more compassionate, more honest and trustworthy and was a better governor than Gov. Scott. The difference may be simple: voters like Crist, whose strength always has been his ability to connect. Voters sometimes elect candidates they don't like personally, but not that often," Brown said.
Same-Sex Marriage and In-State Tuition for Immigrants
Florida voters support 56 - 39 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry, with 57 - 39 percent support among women and 55 - 40 percent backing among men. Support is 65 - 31 percent among Democrats and 64 - 30 percent among independent voters, with Republicans opposed 64 - 32 percent. Every age group supports same-sex marriage except voters over 65 years old, who are divided with 45 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed.
Voters also say 55 - 41 percent that an illegal immigrant who attends high school in Florida should be eligible for the in-state tuition if the immigrant is accepted at a public college.
Men, women and all age groups support the idea. Support is 75 - 21 percent among Democrats and 57 - 40 percent among independent voters, with Republicans opposed 66 - 29 percent.
"A number of states already allow high school graduates in the United States illegally to qualify for the in-state tuition at their public colleges and Floridians seem to think it's a good idea," Brown said.
From April 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,413 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Crist 48% 10% 82% 48% 44% 51% 43% 48% 53% 45% Scott 38 79 9 34 43 33 34 40 32 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 1 2 1 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 2 DK/NA 9 7 6 12 8 10 19 7 8 8
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 Crist 48 46 47 47 50 Scott 38 38 40 37 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 4 2 3 DK/NA 9 10 8 12 12
3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat, and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Rich 36% 7% 67% 34% 32% 40% 26% 40% 40% 34% Scott 42 80 14 38 48 36 44 42 34 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 4 3 2 4 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 4 5 4 5 2 5 6 4 DK/NA 15 10 14 19 13 18 25 10 19 13
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 2014 2014 2013 2013 Rich 36 37 35 36 Scott 42 41 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 2 DK/NA 15 15 14 18
4. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 39% 71% 17% 36% 44% 35% 37% 42% 32% 44% Unfavorable 46 17 68 48 42 49 37 47 53 42 Hvn't hrd enough 12 10 12 13 11 13 24 8 12 10 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (* Low also 28% Aug 2010)
FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Jun 18 Feb 02 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2011* Favorable 39 38 39 40 33 40 28 Unfavorable 46 45 42 42 46 42 24 Hvn't hrd enough 12 14 16 16 18 16 45 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 3 3 3
5. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 43% 16% 69% 44% 41% 46% 35% 45% 47% 42% Unfavorable 36 70 10 32 40 32 23 33 39 42 Hvn't hrd enough 18 12 19 19 16 19 39 19 11 14 REFUSED 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Feb 19 Nov 21 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2009 2013 Favorable 43 44 41 48 49 68 41 Unfavorable 36 35 39 31 30 21 39 Hvn't hrd enough 18 19 18 18 20 9 18 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 2 3 2
6. Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 8% 1% 15% 9% 8% 8% 14% 8% 8% 6% Unfavorable 5 9 2 5 7 4 7 7 5 3 Hvn't hrd enough 85 90 83 86 84 87 78 84 87 89 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Dec 19 2014 2014 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 8 7 8 7 6 Unfavorable 5 6 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 85 86 86 84 90 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 42% 72% 20% 39% 47% 38% 45% 43% 36% 47% Disapprove 50 20 74 52 48 52 44 52 55 46 DK/NA 7 7 6 9 5 10 10 5 9 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Jun 18 May 25 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2011 Approve 42 41 42 43 36 43 29 Disapprove 50 49 47 44 49 44 57 DK/NA 7 10 12 13 15 13 14
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 31% 51% 19% 28% 35% 27% 41% 32% 26% 30% Disapprove 53 31 67 56 53 54 48 58 56 49 DK/NA 16 18 14 16 12 19 11 10 19 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 19 Mar 20 Sep 23 Mar 20 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2004 2013 Approve 31 34 31 32 25 51 25 Disapprove 53 49 51 49 52 34 52 DK/NA 16 17 19 19 23 15 23
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist handled his job as Governor?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 52% 31% 69% 52% 52% 52% 50% 54% 52% 50% Disapprove 38 58 22 36 40 37 35 39 39 39 DK/NA 10 11 9 12 9 11 15 8 9 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist handled his job as Governor? (*High approve also 73% Mar 2007, 2010 and earlier "the way Charlie Crist is handling...")
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jul 19 Apr 15 2014 2014 2013 2010 2010 2007* 2010 Approve 52 53 53 56 53 73 49 Disapprove 38 36 36 35 37 11 39 DK/NA 10 11 11 10 10 16 12
28. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Very satisfied 5% 11% 4% 2% 7% 4% 4% 4% 5% 8% Smwht satisfied 46 58 35 48 51 41 45 50 39 48 Smwht dissatisfied 29 22 31 32 26 31 35 26 33 25 Very dissatisfied 19 8 29 18 16 22 15 20 22 18 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Feb 24 Sep 22 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2005* 2011 Very satisfied 5 6 5 5 4 15 4 Smwht satisfied 46 48 43 48 46 48 31 Smwht dissatisfied 29 30 29 28 31 22 29 Very dissatisfied 19 16 22 17 16 15 34 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 2
29. Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes/Deserves 39% 72% 16% 35% 44% 33% 42% 37% 33% 44% No/Does not 53 19 78 56 49 56 47 57 58 46 DK/NA 9 9 6 10 6 11 12 5 9 10
TREND: Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Apr 30 Jan 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2012 Yes/Deserves 39 38 37 35 32 30 No/Does not 53 54 53 50 55 52 DK/NA 9 9 10 15 13 18
30. Would you say that Charlie Crist - is honest and trustworthy or not?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 45% 23% 67% 43% 40% 49% 41% 42% 47% 47% No 43 64 20 45 49 36 42 47 41 40 DK/NA 13 13 13 12 10 15 17 11 12 13
TREND: Would you say that Charlie Crist is honest and trustworthy or not?
Apr 30 Nov 21 2014 2013 Yes 45 40 No 43 42 DK/NA 13 18
31. Would you say that Charlie Crist - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 48% 24% 70% 49% 45% 50% 46% 52% 48% 45% No 42 65 20 42 47 38 39 41 42 44 DK/NA 10 11 10 9 8 12 15 7 10 11
32. Would you say that Charlie Crist - has strong leadership qualities or not?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 55% 29% 75% 57% 51% 58% 65% 60% 52% 48% No 37 61 18 34 40 33 18 36 40 42 DK/NA 9 10 8 9 8 9 17 4 8 10
33. Would you say that Rick Scott - is honest and trustworthy or not?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 38% 68% 20% 35% 43% 35% 33% 35% 36% 46% No 51 21 70 54 49 52 51 57 55 41 DK/NA 11 11 10 11 8 13 16 8 9 13
TREND: Would you say that Rick Scott is honest and trustworthy or not?
Apr 30 Nov 21 2014 2013 Yes 38 38 No 51 49 DK/NA 11 13
34. Would you say that Rick Scott - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 38% 69% 19% 32% 41% 35% 37% 37% 33% 44% No 55 25 74 57 53 56 49 58 60 48 DK/NA 8 6 7 10 6 9 14 5 7 8
35. Would you say that Rick Scott - has strong leadership qualities or not?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 49% 76% 28% 48% 53% 45% 57% 46% 46% 51% No 44 18 64 43 42 45 34 48 47 41 DK/NA 8 6 7 9 5 9 9 6 7 9
36. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think is more compassionate, Crist or Scott?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Crist 50% 18% 74% 52% 50% 49% 47% 55% 50% 46% Scott 35 70 13 31 38 33 40 34 33 37 DK/NA 15 12 13 17 12 18 13 12 17 17
37. In recent years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Positive thing 52% 13% 77% 60% 50% 54% 64% 55% 52% 45% Negative thing 40 80 16 33 45 36 23 38 41 48 DK/NA 7 6 8 7 5 9 13 6 7 6
TREND: In recent years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist? (* In the last three years)
Apr 30 Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 2014 2013* 2013* 2013* Positive thing 52 46 47 50 Negative thing 40 46 44 40 DK/NA 7 8 9 10
48. Do you think an illegal immigrant who went to high school in Florida and is accepted to a Florida public college should be eligible for the in-state tuition rate, or shouldn't they?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes/Should 55% 29% 75% 57% 53% 56% 65% 56% 52% 52% No/Should not 41 66 21 40 43 38 28 41 44 42 DK/NA 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 3 5 6
49. Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married in Florida?
AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Support 56% 32% 65% 64% 55% 57% 71% 61% 55% 45% Oppose 39 64 31 30 40 39 27 36 39 49 DK/NA 5 4 3 6 6 4 2 4 5 7

Posted at 10:44 AM in Polls, Rick Scott, Voters | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tags: 2014 governors race, blogs, charlie crist, crowley political report, election, florida, news, politics, poll, quinnipiac, rick scott

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