Has Obama just lost Florida over gay marriage?
05/10/2012
Florida can be slow to change. In 1969, the Florida Legislature ratified the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. It was the 50th state to do so. The Amendment had become part of the Constitution in August 1920.
Women had been voting for nearly 50 years.
This year is the 30th anniversary of the Florida Legislature's 1982 decision not to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment.
Nov. 4, will be the fourth anniversary of Florida's passage of the Florida Marriage Protection Amendment - "This amendment protects marriage as the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife and provides that no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized."
Nearly 62 percent of Florida voters supported the amendment.
It is against this socially conservative, political backdrop that Florida supporters of President Obama must weigh his decision to publicly support same-sex marriage.
Losing Florida will likely result in the White House being occupied by Republican Mitt Romney who opposes same-sex marriage. Where Romney may disappoint social conservatives is that no one believes that President Romney would do anything to stop gay marriages.
The immediate reaction has been predictable.
"He made the decision out of political expediency," said a Florida Republican operative and who asked not to be named.
"First of all, I believe this was a decision beyond politics," said Steven Schale, a Florida Democratic operative working with the Obama campaign.
"Despite the media's one-way obsession with this issue, the majority of voters still support traditional marriage," said the GOP op. "More states have passed traditional marriage referendums than those who support gay marriage."
"Like most civil rights issues in history, as more and more Americans embrace the fundamental position that two loving adults should have the right to get married, we are going to look back one day and wonder why this was ever a question," said Schale.
Both Schale and GOP op seem to agree on this - the issue will not matter when Florida voters go to the polls in November.
"Ultimately, the election won't be decided on this issue," said GOP op. "It will hurt Obama on the margins. It will solidify religious voters in opposition and might even motivate them further, and may cause him some problems among independents, but the biggest problem he continues to face is his poor handling of the economy."
"I really don't believe there are any electoral implications," said Schale. "Remember, Obama opposed the gay marriage amendment in 2008 and we won Florida while the amendment passed, and certainly the needle on the issue has moved in the last four years. It might motivate some base voters, but I believe that's where the politics ends."
Are Florida voters ready to rethink gay marriage? Will this become an important issue for them on election day? Will social conservatives rally? Will the gay community rally? Does anyone outside of those two groups really care?
Chatting with another long-time Florida GOP operative the day before Obama's announcement, he shook his head when asked about gay marriage. "I have no problem with civil unions. They should have all the legal rights the rest of us have. It's the word marriage. It just should not be called marriage."
But he also grudgingly admitted that the issue is getting more complicated for Republicans. And he is right.
Florida women voted for 50 years while the state's leaders fussed over ratifying the 19th Amendment. And Florida may never pass the ERA, but women no longer need it.
Many of the folks who today support gay marriage opposed it not too long ago. Many of the folks who still oppose it will someday support it or at least tolerate it. That is what America has always done as we have confronted social change.
Not long ago, a bi-racial couple drew stares. Today they are hardly noticed.
Society changes. Voters change.
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