Crowley Political Report

BREAKING NEWS - Nora McAlvanah, WPTV NewsChannel 5 online political editor, is reporting that Super PAC Restore Our Future has spent $3.4 million on televsion in Florida slated to begin today and run until the Sunshine State's GOP primary.

That is very big number in a state where a heavy week of television commercials usually costs a bit north of $1.5 million. 

Restore Our Future is the Super PAC that supports Mitt Romney. A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision unchained these PACs and they can raise and spend unlimited cash.

 When the noise is done in the Please-Pay-Attention-To-Us state (New Hampshire), attention will focus on South Carolina.

But the real action will be Florida which has the best chance of actually deciding who will be the Republican presidential nominee.

Restore Our Future's gauntlet tossing media buy is letting the other candidates know that if they want to try and stay in the race, the better be prepared to find someone willing to spend a small fortune to help them compete.

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Below is the text of Florida Gov. Rick Scott's speech before the opening day of the Legislature. The text is as prepared for delivery.  There are likely to be small variations.

Here's the full text of Gov. Rick Scott's State of the State address:

MY FELLOW FLORIDIANS, PRESIDENT HARIDOPOLOS, SPEAKER CANNON, MEMBERS OF THE FLORIDA SENATE AND FLORIDA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, CHIEF JUSTICE CANADY, MEMBERS OF THE FLORIDA SUPREME COURT, MY FELLOW CABINET MEMBERS, ATTORNEY GENERAL PAM BONDI, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER JEFF ATWATER, COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE ADAM PUTNAM, AND LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR JENNIFER CARROLL, IT IS AN HONOR TO BE WITH YOU ALL HERE TODAY.

YOU KNOW, I’VE ALWAYS BEEN A BIG BELIEVER IN GETTING TO WORK EARLY, BUT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE’VE EVER SHOWN UP FOR WORK TWO MONTHS EARLY.

PLEASE ALLOW ME TO RECOGNIZE MY WIFE OF 39 YEARS, ANN, MY DAUGHTER ALLISON, MY SON-IN-LAW PIERRE, AND MY 8-WEEK-OLD GRANDSON AUGUSTE, WHO ARE ALL HERE WITH US TODAY.

PEOPLE ALWAYS ASK ANN AND ME WHY WE RAN FOR THIS JOB.  OUR ANSWER IS GROUNDED IN THIS ONE SIMPLE TRUTH: WE CAN NEVER LOOK AT OUR CHILDREN, ALLISON AND JORDAN, AND NOW OUR GRANDCHILD, AUGUSTE, WITHOUT FEELING OUR LOVE FOR THEM.  AND WE KNOW THIS TYPE OF LOVE ALSO CARRIES A DUTY.  THAT DUTY IS TO LEAVE OUR CHILDREN A BETTER PLACE THAN WE INHERITED. IT’S THE SAME DUTY THAT PROBABLY BROUGHT YOU TO THIS CHAMBER TODAY, AND IT’S A DUTY THAT EXTENDS TO ALL CHILDREN OF THIS STATE.

LIKE YOU, WE’RE WILLING TO GIVE OUR ALL TO MAKE FLORIDA THE BEST PLACE TO LIVE AND RAISE A FAMILY; A STATE WHERE YOU CAN FIND A JOB, GET A QUALITY EDUCATION FOR YOUR CHILDREN; A STATE WHERE YOU CAN ENJOY A LOW COST OF LIVING FREE OF BURDENSOME TAXES AND UNNECESSARY GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE; A STATE WHERE DREAMS BECOME REALITY EVERY DAY. 

LAST SESSION, TOGETHER WE MADE THE CHANGES NECESSARY TO IMPROVE THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE CITIZENS OF OUR STATE.  EDUCATION, PENSION AND MEDICAID REFORMS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT REORGANIZATION AND DEREGULATION HAVE ALL HELPED TO PRODUCE JOBS, SAVE TAXPAYER MONEY, IMPROVE THE EDUCATION OF OUR CHILDREN AND BRING DOWN THE COST OF LIVING FOR ALL FLORIDIANS. 

WE WORKED TOGETHER TO ACCOMPLISH ALL OF THIS, AND SO IF I HAVEN’T YET TOLD YOU FACE-TO-FACE, LET ME TELL YOU NOW…ON BEHALF OF THE CITIZENS OF FLORIDA, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!

LIKE ALL OF YOU, I LOVE MY WORK. I TELL PEOPLE EVERYWHERE I GO, IF YOU LIKE PEOPLE AND YOU LIKE MAKING A DIFFERENCE, THERE’S NO BETTER JOB THAN BEING THE GOVERNOR OF FLORIDA. I’VE BEEN ON THE JOB A YEAR NOW, AND I HAVE TRAVELED ALL OVER THE STATE.  I’VE HAD THE HONOR OF MEETING AND LISTENING TO THOUSANDS OF FLORIDIANS, AND THEY’VE SHARED WITH ME THEIR JOYS AND CONCERNS. 

YOU KNOW WHAT?  IT TURNS OUT WE SHARE THE SAME JOY AND THE SAME CONCERN. 

THE JOY IS IN LIVING IN THIS MOST SPECIAL PLACE; LIVING IN FLORIDA.  IT’S A PLACE OF SUNSHINE, AND BEACHES, AND CITIES THAT PULSE WITH ENERGY AND LIGHT.  IT’S A PLACE WHERE CLEAR RIVERS FLOW TO BLUE OCEANS, AND A PLACE WHERE BOLD PEOPLE COME TO BUILD THEIR DREAMS.  FROM OUR SHORES, WE HAVE LAUNCHED MEN TO THE MOON.  AND WITH THIS SAME BRAVE SPIRIT MILLIONS HAVE COME TO PLANT THEIR FLAG IN FLORIDA SOIL TO BUILD SOMETHING NEW AND BETTER.  I KNOW I DID.  I KNOW MANY OF YOU HERE TODAY HAVE FELT THIS JOY, TOO.

BUT WITH THAT JOY COMES A NAGGING DOUBT.  WHEN I TALK TO FLORIDIANS, THEY WORRY THAT THEIR BEST OPPORTUNITIES ARE BEHIND THEM; THAT THEIR CHILDREN MAY NEVER EXPERIENCE THE SECURITY AND PROSPERITY THEY HAVE KNOWN.  THEY WONDER WHETHER THE RINGING PROCLAMATION OF PROGRESS HAS BEEN SILENCED; THAT THE BIRTHRIGHT OF EVER-GREATER PROMISE AND OPPORTUNITY THAT WE ONCE SAW AS BEING WITHIN OUR REACH MAY, INSTEAD, NOW BE UNATTAINABLE.

While New Hampshire voters go to the polls today to vote for a Republican presidential nominee, the state's assembly will hear a proposal to make March 31, an annual Terri Schiavo day in New Hampshire.

The legislation, according to Christian News Wire, is scheduled to have a hearing today with Schiavo's brother, Bobby Schindler speaking in favor of the proposal.

CNW has this quote frm Schindler:

"My family is truly grateful to see a bill like this to remember my sister, Terri. I continue to be profoundly touched by the people who are deeply impacted by Terri's death. As a nation known for protecting its weakest citizens, we must never forget the inhumane manner in which my sister was deliberately killed and at the same time, recognize there are hundreds of thousands of others like Terri that need our compassion, love and protection."

Read more of CNW's report here.

Schiavo, of St. Petersburg, Fl.,  died in March 2005, after doctors removed her feeding tubes. She had collapsed in 1990 and doctors said she was in a persistant vegetative state. Years of litigation followed.

Read more about Schiavo here.

Later this month we are going to get some important information about Florida's Republican U.S. Senate primary.

That's when each of the candidates will report how much money they raised during the final three months of 2011. It is an important quarter for all three of candidates because if any one of them fails to meet expectations, pressure will build for someone to drop out of the race.

Which begs the question - who will drop out first?

Meanwhile, candidate Adam Hasner sent a cheery letter to rivals George LeMieux and Connie Mack inviting them to participate in ten, 90-minute debates.

"I believe in order to save the miracle of the United States of America - "  

Let's pause there for a moment. "Save the miracle?"  Who writes this stuff?

Crowley Political Report would humbly suggest that after defeating the British, surviving the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II and decades of bad sitcoms, history tells us things really aren't that bad in comparision to the past.

Ok, back to the letter.

" - beating Bill Nelson is not enough. We need a conservative majority in the United States Senate that will challenge the Democrats, and the Republicans who too often act like them."

At this point, Hasner invites his rivals to ten debates "spread out across Florida's media markets between now and July."

Now here's a hint that Hasner may not make a good showing when he makes his quarterly finance report. 

"You have both earned reputations as proven fundraisers and skilled politicians with considerable support from the power bases in Washington and Tallahassee. I am realistic about the challenges our grassroots campaign will face in trying to compete with you."

At this point you get the promise to run "an issues oriented campaign which focuses on the substantive differences between us."

Hasner closes his two-page letter by suggesting it would be fine if Mike McAlister and Craig Miller were invited to the debates.

Ten debates would be great. Wonder if the other folks will respond to Hasner.

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Crowley Political Report took a look at Florida newspaper front pages on Wednesday morning and found that overall the newspapers were unimaginative and did a dismal job for their readers.

It was especially surprising to see the Orlando Sentinel and Sun-Sentinel front pages which were used simply to point readers to their inside pages to find a story about Iowa.

We explored Florida's Iowa coverage for Columbia Journal Review. Some excerpts: 

By the end of this month, the contest for the Republican presidential nomination will move to the Sunshine State, so you might think that readers here had a particular interest in the outcome of this week’s Iowa caucuses.

If so, they weren’t well-served by the state’s newspapers. A look at a dozen Florida front pages from Wednesday showed that nearly all relied on The Associated Press or their parent companies’ Washington bureaus to report the results from Iowa. 

Two of state’s major papers gave particularly short shrift to the caucus results. Both the Orlando Sentinel and the Sun-Sentinel played stories about Iowa inside their Wednesday morning editions. The Sun-Sentinel teased from a small front-page box to 3A, the Orlando Sentinel from the front-page mast to A17.

The late hour when the caucus was finally called for Mitt Romney may have had something to do with those decisions—and the Sun-Sentinel also directed print readers to its website—but the papers’ coverage was not any more impressive online.

Both newspapers are part of the Tribune chain, and it was surprising to see how their next-day coverage treated the caucuses as a minor event. The newspapers seemed to be telling readers that they knew they simply could not compete with late results and overwhelming television and web coverage.

Around much of the state the coverage was similarly uninspired, the headlines unimaginative and predictable:

“Down to the wire in Iowa” - Bradenton Herald and Daytona Beach News-Journal

“Photo finish in Iowa” - Sun-Sentinel, “A photo finish for GOP” - Miami Herald, and “GOP photo finish in Iowa” - Tampa Tribune.

There was a “Dead heat in chilly Iowa” - Naples Daily News and a “Deadlock in Iowa” -The Palm Beach Post

As the Columbia Journalism Report story continues, we exam how other Florida newspapers looked on Wednesday morning and what some of them did on Thursday morning.

Read the rest of the story here and see which newspaper did the best job.

Maybe it's a  Sid Dinerstein curse. Poor Sid had lined up Herman Cain to be his keynote speaker for the Jan. 28, Palm Beach County Lincoln Day Dinner.

Dinerstein had every reason to be thrilled. Cain was on a roll and the party could count on Cain bringing in lots of folks willing to pay $195 to hear him speak.

Cain implodes.

Dinerstein needs a new speaker. Now this shouldn't be hard. The dinner is just three days before the Florida presidential primary. 

Not bad timing.

Dinerstein reeled in New Gingrich. 

Looked great. Gingrich was hot. His poll numbers climbing.

Uh oh.

Gingrich was slaughtered in Iowa and now some wonder if he will still be a candidate by the time Florida's primary rolls around.

Crowley Political Report suspects Gingrich will still draw a crowd no matter what happens to his campaign. 

But if Gingrich is out of the race, well, it just won't be the same for Sid.

Is that Santorum on the phone?

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BREAKING NEWS - Multiple news sources are saying that Rick Perry has decided to stay in the race for Republican presidential nomination.

Crowley Political Report and a gazillion other twitter followers of Perry received this tweet just a few minutes ago: @GovernorPerry: And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State...Here we come South Carolina!!!

This has caused the Twitter world to go wild.

At this point the talk is that Perry will participate in the upcoming New Hampshire debates but focus his energy on South Carolina and Florida.

Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann quit and Ron Paul remains persistant. 

What will it mean with Perry staying in the race? The hunch here - Perry believes he will have the money to compete in Florida and steal the nomination from Mitt Romney. And where does this leave Rick Santorum?

Newt is very ticked off. Big Texas Rick is gone. So is Michele.  And little Rick suddenly looks like a giant killer. Meanwhile, Mitt may have to depend on Florida to win the GOP nomination. Oh, and let's not forget Jon who is hoping to be one heckuva of surprise.

The fun now moves to New Hampshire, a state much different than Iowa. Then on to South Carolina, a state very different from the other 49.

Several of these candidates are likely to survive until Jan. 31 when the Florida Republicans will make the real decision.

Florida. Yup, the Sunshine State is where the action is. No matter what happens in New Hampshire and South Carolina - it is Florida that is going to decide who will be the Republican nominee for president.

The challenge for the remaining candidates is simple. Cash. Lots of cash. As Crowley Political Report has stated before - this is an expensive state. It will cost millions to run an effective campaign, buy the needed TV and radio ads, bother everyone with robocalls, and flood mailboxes with political junkmail.

Florida has more than 4 million registered Republicans. We have nearly as many Republicans in Florida as Iowa and New Hampshire have people (4.3 million).

So it ain't cheap to campaign here - and time is short.

 You couldn't help but laugh when Republican political operative Mike Murphy offered this comment during Sunday's Meet the Press when he was asked what will happen if Rick Santorum does well in the Iowa caucuses.

 "The media works like Jurassic Park dinosaurs, 30 feet tall, huge teeth, with all due respect, not always the biggest brain, and it follows movement," said Murphy. "And when it sees movement, Rick Santorum, it stomps over there and tries to eat Rick Santorum. And that's what next week is going to be like."

 You gotta love Murphy. He can spin the hell out of you and be combative but Murphy is always fun to be around and he often knows what he is talking about.

Crowley Political Report first met Murphy in New Hampshire in 1996 when the then 34-year old was the mastermind behind the plaid-shirt wearing campaign of Lamar Alexander.  Poor Lamar failed in 1996 and again four years later but for Murphy it helped kick-off his career as a Republican media master.

Murphy helped Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and others become governors. He has had less luck with presidential campaigns. Still, politics has made Murphy a rich man and he remains a shrewd observer of the media.

His dinosaur comment was a brilliant observation - especially of the past year's coverage of the presidential campaign where the national media lurched from one candidate to the other often on the thinnest evidence of viability.

Michele Bachmann became a serious candidate because of the Ames, Iowa straw vote. Really? 

Was Herman Cain really a viable candidate or did the polls simple reflect the new direction of the thundering herd of dinosaurs stomping in his direction?

And now, of course, everyone is simply shocked that anyone in Iowa is paying attention to Rick Santorum?

And poor Newt Gingrich, will the thundering herd head his way again?

After the caucus results are in, we'll find out quickly which way the dinosaurs are heading.

Which brings me to New Media. Warning: if all you are doing is following the dinosaur herd, you are not really adding to the conversation, you're just making stomping noises.

Mike Bender has left the Tampa Bay Times, aka St. Petersburg Times to join Bloomberg's new Tallahassee bureau.

Best is one of the best reporters in Tallahassee and his move to Bloomberg is big loss for the Times.

Bender is in New York where he is spending the week with Bloomberg editors. At first, Bender will be the only reporter in the new Bloomberg Tallahassee bureau but he expects the news organization to add staff.

Bloomberg also has a bureau in Miami.

"I'll be covering state government and politics," Bender, 34,  told Crowley Political Report. "And, I'll be doing enterprise reporting."

Bender will be back in Tallahassee on Monday.  If you are not following Bloomberg now, Bender is good reason to start.

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