Crowley Political Report

Crowley Political Report takes a closer look at this weekend's Times/Herald Republican presidential campaign poll for Columbia Journalism Review. The polls stories were written by Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith and Miami Herald political writer Marc Caputo. Some excerpts from the CJR report:

Both reporters went to considerable length to describe the complexities of the campaign and the reasons for Romney’s apparent resurgence and Gingrich’s apparent slide. Where they failed, however, is in what they did not report.

Newspaper polling (and the coverage of such polling) has long been a pet peeve of mine. Smith, Caputo and others with whom I worked as a political reporter have been subjected to my railing about newspaper polls countless times.

In Caputo’s and Smith’s stories, there is a clear example of what is wrong with newspaper polls and the coverage thereof. Both reporters wrote that their poll showed that Romney has a 24-point lead over Gingrich among Hispanic voters—52 to 28 percent. But readers were not told important details about these numbers. I interviewed Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research who conducted the poll for the newspapers. He said the survey of 500 registered, likely voting, Republicans included just 75 Hispanics. Of those 75 Hispanics surveyed, the number consisted “heavily” of Cuban Americans who live in Miami-Dade county.

Now, the argument can be made that Miami-Dade Cuban Americans will be the overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters in the Florida primary, as Caputo explains in his story. But neither Caputo nor Smith tells readers that their Hispanic survey is, in fact, not a comprehensive look at Florida Hispanic voters. Coker told me that if he were doing a detailed survey of Hispanics he would have surveyed 400 not 75.

Once you realize that the survey sample is 75, it begs the next question: What is the margin of error? The Times and Herald reported that the margin of error for the 500 Republicans surveyed was 4.5 percent. True. But what they did not tell readers was the margin of error for the 75 Hispanic voters surveyed, which Coker told me was plus or minus 12 percent. That means that the percentage of Hispanics who support Romney ranges from 40 percent to 64 percent and the percentage supporting Gingrich ranges from 16 percent to 40 percent.

What does it really mean? That there is little statistical value in the number of Hispanics surveyed. This is a common problem when news organizations report subgroups in their polls. Often the numbers surveyed are too small to reveal any meaningful information.

. . . 

Another problem is that neither the Times nor the Herald released its complete polling results with questions and crosstabs (the Times posted poll questions online). While print news holes may be too small, there is no reason not to post all of this information on the newspaper websites. The timing of the release is also problematic. The poll was conducted during the period of January 24-26. The results were not released on the newspaper websites until very late on Saturday, January 28. The results then appeared in the Sunday paper, three days after the survey was completed. Pollsters will tell you there is simply too much volatility that close to an election to hold on to poll results for three days. Even voters surveyed on the 24th could have changed their opinion by the 25th.

. . .

News organizations are getting increasingly sloppy with reporting on—and addressing the shortcomings of—their own polls, not to mention asking tough questions of all the other polls that seem to pop up every day.

The National Council on Public Polls offers 20 questions journalists should ask about poll results. Let’s ask them.

You can read the entire Columbia Journalism Review report here.

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Who is Sheldon Adelson, and why does he matter to the presidential campaign? If you are a Florida voter and rely on your local newspaper for your information, you likely have no clue. Yet Adelson is likely to be—along with his wife, Dr. Miriam Adelson—one of the most important figures in determining who will win the January 31 Florida Republican primary.

That is the start of new Columbia Journalism Review story by Crowley Political Report. 

Other excepts:

This is a moment when Florida voters should be able to look to their news organizations to dissect the attack ads they’re seeing and hearing, explore who is paying for these ads (to the extent it can be known, an admitted challenge) and, perhaps, why they’re paying, and to offer a primer on super PACs and the complex new world of campaign spending.

So far, from my reading and watching, Florida’s news organizations have largely fallen short.

Newt Gingrich has a new ad dubbed "What Kind 0f Man?"  Crowley Political Report has not seen the ad yet but the campaign sent us this transcript:

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 Warning: You either need a very wierd sense of humor or a strong tolerance for the absurd to watch these videos.

Let's start with this gentlemen who makes texting and driving appear safe: 

 Crowley Political Report is left speechless by this next ad. It is oddly both good and awful.  

And then as you cruise the video world, you discover a very unusual candidate who has some strong words for Gingrich

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You may not be a regular viewer of Spanish language television, so Crowley Political Reporter plucked out this day-old Mitt Romney ad for your viewing pleasure. 

Romney's campaign offered this explanation as a caption under the video: Newt Gingrich claims to be a Reagan conservative but said he would not change the failed Obama policy to allow travel to Cuba, profited from Freddie Mac while Hispanics suffered during the housing crisis, partnered with Nancy Pelosi, and said that Spanish was the language of the ghetto.

If nothing else, it is worth watching to hear Romney give the ending disclaimer in Spanish.

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Crowley Political Report just received this release from the Newt Gingrich campaign touting support from the Florida Tea Party Coaltion:

Lake County, FL – Newt 2012 FL announced the formal support of more than 30 Florida based Tea Party leaders who have pledged their support to Newt Gingrich for President of the United States.  The coalition of Florida Tea Party Leaders will help elect Newt and defeat Massachusetts Moderate Mitt Romney and then President Barack Obama. 

 “I’ve considered all the candidates, and Speaker Gingrich has the right combination of vision and experience to lead this country out of the economic misery created by government overreach that has been occurring for generations,” said Peter Lee, Founder and Director of the East Side Tea Party of Orlando. “It is clear to me and many others in the Tea Party movement that Newt is the Reagan Conservative that America needs – not a Massachusetts Moderate.”

 “I stand with Newt because I know he will stand up to the establishment and insist on fiscal reforms. Obama and his failed policies have met their match. With the Speaker's leadership, and engaged citizens, we can restore prosperity to America,” concluded Patricia Sullivan, Patriot Army Founder.

Hispanic voters have become the focus of attention for much of the media during the past couple of days as Florida's GOP Jan. 31 primary draws closer. 

As Crowley Political Report noted in an earlier post, Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has a column in The Washington Post today where he warns Republicans that Hispanic voters are drifting away from the GOP. He offers the party four things they can do to bring Hispanic voters into the fold.

This morning, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio was featured on CBS This Morning, where he talked about the diversity of Hispanics and the issues that are important to them. And as is required in any media appearance by Rubio, he was obliged to answer questions about becoming the nominee for vice president.

Rubio calls the race for president, "close, yes, close."

He goes on to say that the importance of  moving up Florida's primary has been proven because "what you are watching now is that all the major issues that our country is facing are being confronted in Florida."

See it below and follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport.

Long, straight and narrow, the asphalt road is ragged and lonely. Juan Berrios stands in front of his attractive home in what he thought would be a thriving neighborhood. Instead, his neighbors are few.  Juan is angry and disgusted.

 A couple hours earlier, Juan was at a rally for Mitt Romney in Lehigh Acres. He stood there in the heat, a husky, friendly guy with a small, brown, long-haired dog named “Bo” on a leash.  Juan listened carefully as Romney spoke for a few minutes in front of a home that was in foreclosure.

 LeHigh Acres has been hammered by the housing crisis and thousands of homes are either in foreclosure or have owners desperately struggling to hang on.  Romney and his entourage arrived in expensive black SUV’s that cost nearly as much as some of the smaller homes in the community.

 Juan listened closely. He had driven nearly 30 minutes to hear what Romney had to say. Romney made a point of telling the several hundred people gathered at the rally that he understood that the foreclosed home behind him represented the lost dreams and shattered lives of a family.

 Back at his home, Juan, 58, said he was unimpressed. “I didn’t hear anything that would make a difference in the people’s lives here,” he said as he looked around at the vacant lots that isolate his home on this quiet stretch of road.

 “We need someone who will fight,” said Juan, who left Atlanta where he owned a small limousine service. “People are hurting. We need jobs. We need development to come back.”

 Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose wife Columba is from Mexico, has written about the the importance of Hispanic voters in the presidential campaign. In an opinion piece for The Washington Post, Bush says the Republican Party must do a better job to bring Hispanics into the GOP tent.

Some excerpts:

In the 15 states that are likely to decide who controls the White House and the Senate in 2013, Hispanic voters will represent the margin of victory.

For the Republican Party, the stakes could not be greater. Just eight years after the party’s successful effort to woo Hispanic voters in 2004, this community — the fastest-growing group in the United States, according to census data — has drifted away.

. . .

(Republicans)  need to recognize this is not a monochromatic community but, rather, a deeply diverse one. . .Some came here 50 years ago to make a better life; others came last year. Some have lots of education, some have none. The traditional Republican emphasis on the importance of the individual has never been more relevant. . . Like all voters, Hispanics respond to candidates who show respect and understanding for their experiences.

Bush goes on to talk about how Republicans can engage Hispanics on issues involving business, education and immigration. Visit the Washington Post here to read the rest of Bush's comments.

One thing is missing - Bush still does not endorse a candidate in the GOP Florida primary. 

That seems pointlessly odd.

It is just a week before South Carolina voters are to go to the polls when Crowley Political Report is asked to contact Florida supporters of Newt Gingrich.  A French television crew wants to meet with Gingrich supporters, interview them and get video of them in action waving signs on a street corner.

 “We don’t have signs yet,” says Tami with the enthusiasm of a supporter who can’t wait to start waving at motorists.

 Two days later, they have their signs and a couple of dozen Gingrich supporters wave and cheer at passing motorists in Boca Raton.

 On Saturday, we drop by the home of Melissa who is in her garage with a group of Mitt Romney supporters. They are putting together Romney yard signs. The plan is to have 2,000 signs throughout Palm Beach County.

 Melissa and Tami are best friends.

 These two women are the kind of folks who make campaigns tick. The volunteers are the ones who go door-to-door, call their friends, meet with supporters, organize their neighborhoods and beyond.

 Despite all the hoopla of the big campaign machine – often the most successful primary campaigns have been smaller and more agile.

At this point, there is a question as to whether the precision movement of the Romney campaign is agile enough to compete with the more erratic Gingrich campaign.

Crowley Political Report is hearing rumors that Rick Santorum will drop out of the presidential campaign if he does poorly in South Carolina. Santorum would have to have a pretty miserable night to give up that quickly and he seems like the type who will not quit unless he is completely convinced that the nomination is out of reach.

Meanwhile, Santorum is scheduled to appear Sunday  at the Worldwide Christian Center in Pompano Beach
which is led by the controversial Rev. O'Neal Dozier.  The pastor has expressed some very strong views about threats from Muslims, gay marriage, and Mormon beliefs.

After Santorum's visit to the Worldwide Christian Center he is going to nearby Coral Springs for a stop at Wings Plus.

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So what do you when you might be a bit concerned that an ex-wife will turn women against your campaign for president? Part of the Newt Gingrich strategy appears to be launching the "I-4 Women Roar" in Orlando.

More from the Gingrich campaign:

At the annual “I-4 Women Roar” event, Newt 2012 FL announced its Coalition of Women with Newt.  “These conservative women endorse Newt Gingrich as the candidate who will stand for our conservative values, apply bold solutions to the big issues facing our country, and return our belief in American Exceptionalism,” said Debbie Cox Roush, Florida State Director of Newt 2012 FL County Chairs. “Every one of these Mama Grizzlies are leaders, organizers and supporters who bring special energy and unique resources to our campaign across the state,” continued Cox-Roush.   

We are honored to announce Newt 2012 FL Coalition of Women with Newt:

Leadership Team:

State Co-Chair, The Honorable Gayle Harrell, State Representative (St. Lucie County)

State Co-Chair, The Honorable Debbie Mayfield, State Representative (Indian River County)

State Co-Chair, The Honorable Mary Collins, City Council (Miami Dade County)

State Co-Chair, Jerry Buchanan, Activist            (Orange County)

Director, Debbie Cox Roush (Hillsborough County) 

This week, Florida celebrated the 35th anniversary of a very snowy day that reached all the way down to South Florida. Which got Crowley Political Report wondering - does Rick Santorum have a snowball's chance of winning the Sunshine State Republican primary?

Santorum has become a bit of a hard luck candidate.

Imagine what the pundits would have been saying before New Hampshire if Iowa had been able to count the votes correctly.

He would have been the candidate of the hour. Yup, the talking heads would have made more of a 34-vote Santorum win than an 8-vote Romney win. Santorum winning would have been big news. Losing by 8 votes - not so much.

And, as much as Santorum has tried, he has simply been unable to catch the imagination of CNN, MSNBC, FOX and the others. 

He is ponderous in debates and often comes across as a nerd with a temper. He has neither the faux-presidential demeanor of Mitt Romney nor the quick mind and acid tongue of Newt Gringrich.

The past 12 months have been an incredible time for professional commentators - they have got almost nothing right. So who knows what surprises are in store. 

Voters are feeling uncertain and ornery. And now, perhaps a bit weary and depressed. None of the candidates has been particularly inspiring to their fellow Republicans. 

After Thursday night's debate, Santorum got little attention. Most of the focus was on Gingrich for brushing back CNN's John King over questions about Gringrich's relationship with an ex-wife. Some commentators compared the moment to Ronald Reagan's famous outburst - "I am paying for this microphone Mr. Green" - at the 1980 Nashua Telegraph debate.

Crowley Political Report was at the Reagan debate with George H.W. Bush. Reagan was much better than Gingrich. Judge for yourself below.

But first, back to the question - does Santorum have a snowball's chance in Florida? Yes. But the snow didn't last on the ground for more than a few hours in 1977, and Santorum may have to push past either Gingrich or Mitt Romney in South Carolina if he doesn't want to melt here.

(Note: in the video Reagan says Mr. Green. The moderator's name was actually Jon Breen.)

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On Wednesday evening, a score of enthusiatic supporters of Newt Gingrich waved sign at motorists in Boca Raton. A member of the Crowley Political Report team reports that many drivers honked their horns and waved in support of Gingrich.

Could it be that the former House Speaker, is catching on in Florida?

Mitt Romney's campaign remains a formidable machine but the newest polls suggest Romney is still struggling to win the hearts of GOP primary voters.

A new Politico poll released Thursday morning shows Gingrich within striking distance of Romney in South Carolina.

"The poll finds Romney atop the GOP field with 37 percent and Gingrich at 30 percent. Ron Paul trails with 11 percent, followed by Rick Santorum at 10 percent and Rick Perry, who barely registers at four percent. Just eight percent remain undecided."

Many of the voters who will show up at the polls for the Jan. 31 Florida primary are likely to Tea Party supporting conservatives - folks not terribly fond of Romney.

What will likely save Romney in Florida is absentee ballots and possibly the start of early voting. Gingrich simple didn't catch fire when absentee ballots were being cast. 

Still, if Gingrich wins or comes very close to Romney in South Carolina, a victory in Florida could take Gingrich to the nomination.

Rear more of Politico here.

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Crowley Political Report, as part of our ongoing examination of media coverage of the Florida presidential campaign for Columbia Journalism Review, took a look at news reporting about Mitt Romney's visit to Florida this week.

Some excerpts:

Romney spoke for a bit more than 15 minutes. Toss in another 15 minutes of shaking hands, and Romney spent a mere 30 minutes on public view—none of it particularly newsworthy.

But the armada of media on hand would have led viewers and readers to believe that this was not just a major Republican campaign event, but the political event of the campaign. Romney’s relatively brief visit to Florida, which also included two closed-press fundraisers on the island of Palm Beach, was greeted with print, web, and broadcast stories the day before his arrival and breathless coverage during his visit.

...

Did Romney deserve this extensive coverage? As the leading presidential candidate, someone widely presumed to be the likely nominee, Romney has earned a higher level of scrutiny.

But were readers and viewers well served? Much of the coverage was superficial or even cheerleading.

...

That leads to a final question—would other candidates have received the same attention? Maybe. While news organizations have often seemed befuddled over the last year in trying to figure out who the leading candidates were at any given moment, today there is more clarity. Votes have been cast. Reporters know who has the needed money and other resources to campaign successfully in a large state such as Florida. So news organizations can make better judgments.

But if Florida news organizations have made the decision that Romney deserves extraordinary coverage, then they need to make sure that coverage includes an equally in-depth look at Romney’s views about issues important to Floridians—housing and foreclosures, Florida’s deep unemployment, severe cuts to the space program, relationships with Cuba and Haiti, and oil drilling off Florida’s coast are just a few examples.

Assignment editors and reporters should remember that it is not up to the candidate to make the news. You can find it yourself.

Read the entire report which high praise for work done by the Sun Sentinel and Miami Herald.

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Geezzzz. Just after Crowley Political Report tells you that Rick Santorum is getting serious about Florida, Mitt Romney's favorite Super PAC - Restore Our Future - launches a new 30-second ad featuring Santorum

Rick is not going to be happy.

(Tip of the hat to Nora McAlvanah at FlDemocracy2012)

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With Newt Gingrich campaigning in Florida today and Rick Santorum announcing his Florida campaign team, it would appear that these folks are far from ready to concede the Republican nomination for president to Mitt Romney.

In a media release from his campaign, Santorum says,  "I am thrilled to announce this great team of Floridians who have joined the fight for conservatism and a restoration of our founding principles.

Through Jesse and Michael's leadership, I have no doubt that this talent team will successfully get our hopeful and positive message of a better America out to all Floridians. I look forward to working with them as we build the operation for our team to win the Florida Primary."

You may be wondering - who are Jesse and Michael? That is explained in the rest release:

Florida Rick Santorum for President Chairman: 

Jesse Biter will serves as Florida Chairman of the Rick Santorum for President campaign. Biter is the President/CEO of Biter Enterprises, LLC., a Florida-based management firm. From his Sarasota office, Biter oversees diverse assets in Information Technology, Real Estate, Marketing, and Transportation. The centerpiece of Biter's organization is Dealers United. Before starting Dealers United, he founded HomeNet Automotive and grew the company from zero employees and one dealer to over 135 employees and more than 18,000 dealers, before selling the company to AutoTrader in 2010. Jesse has been actively involved in Florida Republican politics and has assisted in the campaigns of Mike Huckabee for President, U.S. Congressman Vern Buchanan, Florida Governor Rick Scott. Jesse, his wife Katie and his two daughters reside in Sarasota Florida.

UPDATE: Finally, a picture.

Crowley Political Report is hunting down a picture. We think you would enjoy it. While Mitt Romney was onstage talking to several hundred supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, a woman strolled in clutching her little white dog.

The little white dog had the obligatory American Flag motiff scarf but this woman was far more creative.

She dyed one of the dog's ears blue. The other red. Ditto the paws.

(Note: those of you who about Romney's dog problem may not be amused but this woman had nothing to do with it).

Romney started speaking to the crowd at about 12:13 and wrapped it up at about 12:37. 

If you have watched any of Romney's speeches over the last few months, you've heard the one he gave in West Palm Beach - Obama is lousy president, Romney can fix the economy, etc.

As the crowd cheered, Romney said - "The president is running out of ideas and he is running out of excuses...and he is running out of time."

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Photo by Nora McAlvanah, FlDemocracy2012

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will attend a rally in West Palm Beach today at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.

It is an interesting location because in many ways the Convention Center is a failed government project. Little used, heavily dependent on tax dollars and seeking salvation by offering millions to anyone who will build a convention hotel nearby, the center has become a symbol of government befuddlement.

Romney's rally is scheduled from noon to 1:30 p.m.  After mingling with the folks, Romney will drive over the bridge to Palm Beach for a fundraiser at the home of Steve Ross, owner of the Miami Dolphins.

Romney's Florida effort has been formidable.  His campaign is making a determined effort to win this state and he has the money and resources to do it.

The biggest question for Romney may be who turns out for the Jan. 31, Florida primary. Will the vote be dominated by Tea Party supporters? Will Ron Paul Republicans show up? Will moderate Republicans, those most comfortable with Romney, vote? 

If 2012 is a replay of 2010, it could make things a bit more difficult for Romney. Florida's Tea Party voters were unforgiving in 2010, and if a candidate fails to meet the stringent - some might say strident - hard-core conservative demands of these voters, they go elsewhere.

Everything appears to be working in Romney's favor. His campaign has all the money and heavy machinery and his rivals are pinching pennies.

Restore Our Future, the Romney supporting Super-PAC, is spending $3.4 million on advertising in Florida. Romney's campaign will spend millions more - there is already a Spanish-language ad airing on Hispanic television.

And voting here is already underway. More than 85,000 Republicans have already voted by mail. 

If Romney wins big in South Carolina, Florida's primary may turn into a coronation.

Newt Gingrich is his chief rival in South Carolina, but even he appears to be admitting that he may not have much of a future if the Palmetto State does not at least give him a very close second place finish.

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 Art by Patrick Crowley