Will the Tea Party give Florida to Newt Gingrich?
12/01/2011
A new poll shows Newt Gingrich supported by 50 percent of likely-voter Florida Republicans. Mitt Romney comes in at 19 percent and Herman Cain is at 10 percent.
What Crowley Political Report finds most interesting is that Gingrich gets 54 percent of the vote from Republicans who say they are Tea Party supporters.
Why does this matter?
Because among all those who tell pollsters that they are "likely voters," Tea Party folks are the most likely to show up on January 31 to vote in the Florida primary.
As we frequently note - take all polls with a a huge grain of salt.
Here's the American Research Group results:
Newt Gingrich leads the Florida Republican Presidential Primary with 50%. Gingrich is followed by Mitt Romney at 19% and Herman Cain at 10%.
In early October, Cain was leading with 34%, followed by Romney at 28% and Gingrich at 11%.
Among registered Republicans, Gingrich leads with 50%, followed by Romney at 19% and Cain at 10%.
Among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, Gingrich leads with 54%, followed by Cain at 16% and Romney at 8%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Gingrich leads with 44%, followed by Romney at 31%.
Among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote in the primary, Gingrich leads with 53%, followed by Romney at 18% and Cain at 9%.
The survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 27-30.
...
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Question Wording:
If the 2012 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Charles Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not?
Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican presidential primary?
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Art by Patrick Crowley
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