Crowley Political Report

Texas Gov. Rick Perry seems to have little traction with Florida Republicans while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney clings to a commanding lead with Herman Cain following in second place. 

Well maybe.

The sample of 401 registered GOP voters is a tad small. The margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent which is a tad large.

Tadding aside, the important thing is that at this stage of a campaign it's all about headlines and perceptions. 

Here's what the poll really tells us - despite some grumbling, Florida's GOP voters are comfortable with Romney.  Here's what the poll doesn't tell us - who is going to show up to vote?

If you watch the dance in teh 2012 Florida's U.S. Senate race, plus last year's race for governor and U.S. Senate, it is pretty clear that the most likely voters in the January 31 primary will be Tea Party voters and other who feel similarly.

Not good for Romney.

He is still a tough sell to the Tea Party - a group known to be willing to cut a candidate off at the knees for the slightest perceived transgression.

Could Rick Perry take his place? Maybe. But at 9 percent in this poll - tied with Newt Gingrich - it's pretty clear that Florida Republicans remain unimpressed. 

The wild card remains Cain. He's popular with Tea Party and may finally be putting together the money and Florida organization he needs to have a shot.

We're less than 100 days away from the Jan. 31 primary - and the candidates still have to deal with Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Enjoy the poll - but don't take it too seriously.

Consider this, 50 percent of those surveyed said they might change their mind.

The results: Romney 30%   Cain 18%    Gingrich 9%    Perry 9%    Paul 6%    Bachmann 4%    Huntsman 1%    Santorum 1%    No opinion 14%

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