Crowley Political Report

There must be a lot of Republicans who are convinced that Florida Democrat Bill Nelson is not going to be able to hang on to his U.S. Senate seat.

On Tuesday, the Florida GOP gets it fifth candidate for U.S. senate with the addition of Craig Miller, former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouse. Miller is going to fly around the state for a series of airport press conferences with stops in Orlando, Tampa, West Palm Beach, Naples and Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, the latest report in the money primary shows that George LeMieux raised $950,000 during the three month period ending June 30. LeMieux's campaign did not say how much cash former U.S. senator still has in the bank after expenses.

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos fell short of LeMieux's total, raising $900,000. Haridopolos had already raised $2.6 million, so he remains the frontrunner.  Coming in third is former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner who raised $560,000.

Also running for the senate is retired Army Lt.Col. Mike McCallister. He is not expected to raise much money.

Which brings us back to Miller. How seriously should we take him as a statewide candidate?

His first bid for office is not a promising sign. Miller ran for an Orlando congressional seat in 2010 and finished third. To be fair, LeMieux lost his only previous campaign - a state house seat race and he has not been on the ballot since.

What will make Miller a viable candidate?

Cash.

Yup money. And lots of it. Can he get it? Does Miller have his own dough to spend?

Crowley Political Report believes in cash. Having it doesn't mean a candidate is going to win. But not having it almost certainly means a statewide candidate is going to lose.

There are more than 4 million GOP voters in Florida. If only 25 percent vote in the primary that is 1 million voters. If a candidate talked to 1,000 voters every day for 365 days, he would only reach a bit more than one-third of the GOP primary voters.

It takes money to reach voters. And most of that money is spent on television ads. A significant, statewide television buy will cost a candidate more than $1.5 million a week. And you need money for all the things it takes to make a candidate competitive.

That's why, fellow political watchers, you have to keep an eye on the money.