Florida Senate race looking for a frontrunner
07/19/2011
Crowley Political Report drops off the grid for a few days and the next thing you know there is a shake-up in Florida's U.S. Senate race. Or was there?
Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination with the feeble excuse that he just now discovered that running for statewide office while being senate president is very time-consuming.
Really?
Of course, that excuse is nonsense. There is lots of speculation that Haridopolos will soon be embroiled in the legal problems of ousted and arrested former state GOP chairman Jim Greer. He is scheduled to give a deposition in the case next month.
Whatever the real reason for Hariodopolos' hasty departure from the race, the fact is that he was very unlikely to win the nomination. And while everyone, including Gov. Rick Scott, went through the motions of wishing Haridopolos a fond farewell from the race, seconds after he dropped out the scrambling for position began.
If you're anybody of importance in Florida GOP circles who supported Haridopolos, your phone is already ringing with calls from former substitute U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.
Neither Hasner nor LeMieux have shown a commanding presence at this point.
In the money primary, LeMieux has the lead with $950,000 to Hasner's $560,000. Last week, one strategist for Hasner insisted that much of LeMieux's money was raised just for the general election while most of Hasner's can be used for the GOP primary.
We'll know the answer when we see what they filed with the FEC.
The oversimplification of the race is this view: More GOP primary voters will support Hasner because he is a hard-core Tea Party conservative. Those same voters will not support LeMieux because of his nearly twin-like association with former Gov. Charlie Crist - a figure many Republicans would like to stone.
Meanwhile, we must take note of the fact that there are two other candidates in the race: Mike McCallister, a former U.S. Army, Lt. Colonel, and Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouse.
Last week, Crowley Political Report speculated about the possibility of Congressman Allen West running for the U.S. Senate. So far, he has not expressed any interest in a statewide race but GOP operatives tell us that if West gets in, he clears the field.
So is Florida's Republican senate primary turning into a two-man race between Hasner and LeMieux? Possibly, but it's not there yet.
And it is worth noting that when Fort Myers Congressman Connie Mack, who supported Haridopolos, was asked if he might change his mind and run, he did not say, "no." Instead, Mack said, it was not a day to "speculate" about running.
Even, former state House Speaker Allan Bense, said me might consider running.
At this point, no one has a lock on the GOP primary race.
All of this must be very amusing to Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, who so far, has no serious challenger in the Democratic primary.
Meanwhile, Florida Republican leaders must be wondering - just how ugly is the Greer mess going to get? What kind of damage will it do? And who else is going to come tumbling down?
Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport
Art by Patrick Crowley
Comments