Should Jeb Bush run against Bill Nelson for Senate?
03/30/2011
First let's note that any polling down about an election that won't take place until November 2012 is largely worthless.
Second, while favorability ratings are fun to look at, the value of that information is, shall we say, very limited at this point when looked at in context of an election more than 18 months away.
So the newest Public Policy Polling survey is really an exercise in amusement.
But from it we can derive this question - is former Gov. Jeb Bush the only person who has a real chance of defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?
Crowley Political Report says the answer is "yes" and "no."
Certainly if Bush gets into the race it would be a nightmare for Nelson. It would also be a nightmare for every GOP candidate remotely thinking about running.
If Bush wants the GOP nomination it is his for asking. So far, he is not asking.
That leaves us with a field that includes Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos, former state Rep. Adam Hasner, former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and a yet-to-be-named rich guy who would like to retire to the U.S. Senate.
The new PPP survey finds that 38 percent of voters approve of the job Nelson is doing in Washington while 34 percent disapprove.
Not a disaster, not great.
Nelson does hold a 15 to 16 point lead over his potential Republican rivals in the imaginary "if the election were held today" scenario.
Good news for Nelson - if the election is today. It's not.
Now if Jeb Bush announces that he is running against Nelson - yes, Bush could win.
Would it be a sure thing - No.
Bush has his own baggage and he might have to carry some of his brother's baggage as well.
The only "sure thing" is that it would be one helluva race.
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Art by Patrick Crowley
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