Crowley Political Report

This isn't the first time the Outlaw motorcycle gang has been part of Florida politics.

This week, Republican Allen West has been trying to explain what he was doing with members of the Outlaw motorcycle gang which impressed him with their "security" efforts on his behalf.

Democrat Congressman Ron Klein has tried to suggest that West may be a bit too friendly with the Outlaws in an effort to stave off a serious challenge by West.

But let's go back to 1967, when the Outlaws became the foil of Florida's Republican governor after they nailed a girl to a tree. 

Marco Rubio may not need the help.

Afterall, he is well ahead in all the polls and there appears to be little chance that No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist or Democrat Kendrick Meek are going to knock Rubio out of the U.S. Senate race.

In fact, you can see a down side to Rubio getting on stage Saturday with Sarah Palin.

Some might argue that Rubio is worried about falling behind his rivals and he wants Palin to give him the final boost he needs to become Florida's next Republican U.S. senator.

That would be nonsense. Rubio has run a nearly flawless campaign. While Crist and Meek flail away at each other, Rubio's hold on first place has been unshakeable.

It should be an  entertaining Saturday in Orlando where Palin will star, Rubio will probably say a few words and their will be shout-outs to other Florida Republican candidates.

The RNC is sponsoring the event at the Orlando World Center Marriott.

Ticket prices range from $20.10 to $1,000 per person.

You can find more information about the event here.

Art by Patrick Crowley

Republican Rick Scott will hit the road next week for a campaign bus tour. No word yet on whether Democrat Alex Sink is planning a similar event.

Here's an idea - let's put Scott and Sink on the same bus. At each stop the two candidates can step from the bus and tell folks why they want to be governor.

And let's take it one step further - they can only talk about issues. You know -  jobs, education, insurance, health care - that kind of stuff, without the name calling.

Crowley Political Report will even go along to be the moderator.

Another tip - it is always amusing to hear candidates talk about being tough leaders and then watch them run away like scared sheep when a reporter tries to ask questions.

Really?

You're going to be able to make a decision about executing someone on death row but your handlers won't let you stick around to chat with reporters.

Scott's schedule is on the next page. 

Couple of interesting things about this new ad featuring No-Party Gov. Charlie  Crist.

One is that he never mentions Democrat Kendrick Meek. Instead Crist talks about fighting the "right wing party bosses."

Another interesting element is Crist's statement that he is fighting Republican Marco Rubio's "extremist agenda to roll back Roe versus Wade, and cut your Social Security."

Does Crist's Roe v. Wade statement mean he now supports abortion rights?

Here's the ad.

It was a desperate gamble.

No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist clearly began to realize that there was no way he was going to defeat Republican Marco Rubio in the race to be Florida's next U.S. senator.

Crist and his buddies decided that the only way they could save the campaign would be to force Democrat Kendrick Meek to drop out.

After all, Crist has become for all practical purposes the second Democrat candidate.  If Meek drops out Crist would become the defacto Democratic candidate.

The week started with someone supporting Crist making a patsy out of the Wall Street Journal by getting conservative columnist Stephen Moore to write a bogus column about Meek getting out of the race.

A second new ad today from Alex Sink. Not quite as harsh as the one Crowley Political Report wrote about a few minutes ago (just scroll down) - but I think the Scott team will be forwarding it to their friends.

Democrat Alex Sink brings back the law enforcement and prosecutor boys to go after Republican Rick Scott and his newest company Solantic.

Taking a page from Bill McCollum this ad asks - where's the deposition?

Anyone out there really think the race to be Florida's next governor was suddenly going to be about issues.

Here ya go:

FiveThirtyEight/NYTimes has boosted Republican Marco Rubio's odds of becoming Florida's new U.S. Senator giving him a 92.4 percent chance of victory in the November 2 election.

No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist is  at 6.9 percent and Democrat Kendrick Meek is below 1 percent at .7 percent.

These statistics, according to 538/NYT,  are based on:  100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.

You can find out more here.

While the media  gleefully tells you about the latest polling results do they bother to ask this question of the pollsters - did you include voters who only use cell phones?

It is a critical question that goes unasked

Cell-only adults are demographically and politically different from those who live in landline households; as a result, election polls that rely only on landline samples may be biased. Although some survey organizations now include cell phones in their samples, many -- including virtually all of the automated polls -- do not include interviews with people on their cell phones.

That tidbit comes from a report today from the Pew Research Center which is a leader in research about the press and politics.

When Pew does a poll it often surveys more than 2,500 - including a sampling of those with only cellphones.  Their polls are far more detailed than any we see coming with surveys of 500 to 700 likely voters.

Consider this: The latest estimates of telephone coverage by the National Center for Health Statistics found that a quarter of U.S. households have only a cell phone and cannot be reached by a landline telephone.

In an earlier report, Pew said:  pollsters and other survey researchers who use the telephone as the principal means of reaching potential respondents face a difficult decision as to whether to include cell phones in their samples. Doing so adds significantly to the cost and complexity of conducting surveys at a time when respondent cooperation is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain.

At this point the answer appears to be - yes.

Another poll, another big lead for Republican Marco Rubio.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,055 likely Florida voters and found Rubio leading No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist 44-30.  Democrat Kendrick Meek is at a dismal 22 percent.

Unless someone comes up with a bombshell that tears apart Rubio's campaign - it is hard to see how he won't be Florida's next U.S. Senator.

The fact is that candidates with double digit leads three weeks from election day just don't lose.

Would it make any difference if either Crist or Meek dropped out of the race - maybe, but not likely.

It is clear that Crist has lost the magic and Meek never had it.

 Note: All public polling should be taken with a large grain of salt. Read here to find out why.

Nothing would surprise Crowley Political Report at this point in the campaign.

If Al Franken were to show up in Florida to campaign for No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist, it would be just one more quirky moment in a quirky political year.

Today, Crist was endorsed by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger who has a lot in common with Crist.

Both have hostile relations with the state Legislature. Both helped craft creative budgets that rely on significant help from Washington and a much improved economy to balance the numbers.

Interesting facts: California has 37 million people and just approved an  $87.5 billion state budget. Florida has 18 million people and a $70 billion budget.

Art by Pat Crowley

Crossroads GPS is a Karl Rove supported group that is targeting races in a number of states.

This is their latest ad attacking No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist.

 Crowley Political Report found this ad by the National Rifle Association featuring a man apparently working for a gun manufacturer.

The man (not sure if he is an actor) says he is worried - "with Nancy Pelosi and her crowd in Washington, I feel threatened. If they damage our Second Amendment rights it could destroy or jobs here."

From there he leaps into talking about Rick Scott, the Republican candidate to be Florida's next governor.

This ad is making the rounds this afternoon. It was done by the Christine O'Donnell campaign.

Is the trust question finally taking a toll on Republican Rick Scott?

That seems to be the conclusion of the new Qunnipiac University which shows that Scott's unfavorable ratinig is climbing.

While the race to be Florida's next governor is too close to call, Democrat Alex Sink, with 44 percent of the vote, seems to be making gains while Scott, at 45 percent, is slipping.

On Oct. 1, Scott was leading 49 to 43.

One notable difference since then has been a series of new Sink ads featuring prosecutors and cops - both Republicans and Democrats - who say Scott can't be trusted.

Crowley Political Report called the ad that began on Oct. 5 - a day before Quinnipiac started polling -  "A powerful, potentially devastating ad against Republican Rick Scott."  See the ad here.

More from Quinnipiac:

This morning, Kendrick Meek looked a bit angry.

He was on MSNBC facing questions from Chuck Todd about whether Meek plans to quit the race for the U.S. Senate in favor of No-Party candidate Charlie Crist.

"Absolutely not." said Meek.

A bit later Todd asked Meek "what is more important, finishing second and letting Marco Rubio win?"

"I'm not running for second, I'm running to win."

Where did these questions come from?

The fact is that the source for these questions - Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal - has no credibility when it comes to knowing Meek's intentions about Florida's U.S. Senate race.

Democrat Alex Sink has a new two minute video that opens with a bank vault and a voice over saying:

"Today on Fraud Files - a money trail that leads from taxpayers' wallets straight to the pockets of one mysterious man"

Guess who?

You there - the lady in the back row.  You're right it's Rick Scott.

There is nothing new in this video that the Sink campaign says will be shown in the Tampa Bay market.

These are the same charges that Bill McCollum made against Scott in the Republican primary.

Will this video have any impact on who Tampa Bay area voters will pick to be Florida's next governor?

Once again Crowley Political Report finds that little nugget of campaign life that - well - makes South Florida a little different.

Here we discover a video by the self described Conservative Divas in Boca Raton.

Really, watch it to the end.  Bet you don't find this in DeFuniak Springs.

Crowley Political Report has not seen one of these since the GOP primary for governor when KirkPeppersHead posted a series of animated videos making fun of Bill McCollum.

This video animation was created by someone calling him or herself KearnsPalmBay.

For the St. Petersburg Times, No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist offers Florida an opportunity to give Washington a senator who will not be beholden to the unbending rhetoric of both Democrats and Republicans.

They see Crist as a peace maker and dismiss his opponents, Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican Maroc Rubio, as "more of the same rigid thinking and polarization that is paralyzing the Senate."

The Times endorsement of Crist says:

Whatever his flaws, Crist offers a fresh approach and is well known to Floridians. He moves easily among Republicans and Democrats who are not party activists.

 He is fiscally conservative and socially moderate. He has praised Ronald Reagan and embraced Barack Obama.

 He respects differing opinions, adopts good ideas regardless of their source and treats everyone with uncommon decency. That is the prescription for restoring the Senate's once-proud tradition of collaboration and compromise.