Marco Rubio has 85 percent chance of winning
10/01/2010
Actually Republican Marco Rubio has an 85.5 percent chance of winning Florida's U.S. Senate seat.
FiveThirtyEight/NYTimes is giving No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist just a 13.5 percent chance of victory in November. Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek is at 1.1 percent.
The calculation is based on 100,000 simulations. Their current prediction on how voters will vote on Nov. 2 shows Rubio getting 42.7 percent of vote. No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist gets 32.7 and Democrat U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek gets 23.5
FiveThirtyEight has become one of the more respected politics statisticians and recently merged with the New York Times.
Yesterday, Crowley Political Report asked the question - should Crist quit the race? Or should Meek?
As long as both men stay in the race the chances of Rubio going to the senate are - well - 85.5 percent which is up from nearly 77 percent two weeks ago.
See the FiveThirtyEight stats here. Scrowl down just a bit to see what Crowley Political Report had to say about Crist getting out.
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