Crowley Political Report

Grim.

That's the only way you can react to a pair of polls that show No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist badly trailing Republican Marco Rubio.

Today's Quinnipiac University poll is, well, devastating for the Crist campaign. It is beginning to look like Crist's frolick into the world of no-party candidacy is going to end badly.

The news is worse for Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek who is at 18 percent.

Rubio is at 46 to Crist's 33 percent. Yesterday, Crowley Political Report, told you about the CNN/Time magazine poll that shows Crist trailing Rubio by seven points, 38-31.

The headline says it all. The new CNN/Time poll of 786 likely voters was taken from Sept. 24-28 and has a margin-of-error of 3.5 percent.

This remains a very close race which could go either way. Democrat Alex Sink and Republican Rick Scott have started running a number of new ads that are aimed at moving these numbers.

Who will be Florida's next governor? Right now it is anybody's guess.

Another poll, another set of grim numbers for No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist.

A new CNN/Time poll has Crist trailing Democrat Marco Rubio by 7 points with Rubio at 38, Crist at 31 and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek at 25.

CNN/Time reports that in their polling Crist was the only no-party candidate that "seems to be fading."

786 likely voters were polled from Sept. 24-28. The poll has a margin-of error of plus/minus 3.5 percent.

No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist appeared last night on Lawrence O'Donnell's new MSNBC show The Last Word.

It was largely a breeze for Crist who was tossed a few softball questions by O'Donnell that led to a long series of  campaign soundbites and rapid eyebrow movements.

O'Donnell's toughest question - which was relevant to nothing in the campaign to be Florida's next U.S. Senator - was a flashback to 2008 when Crist said Sarah Palin would "do a great job" as president.

O'Donnell asked if Crist had changed his mind.

"Well you know my concern in this race...."

You know where that's going. Crist simply dodged the Palin question.

For those who are wondering what he said in 2008 Crowley Political Report found this video:

Crowley Political Report stumbled into this video featuring Republican candidate for Florida governor and that other guy.

Congress is not a very popular place right now but Republican congressional candidate Allen West's disdain for all Republican and Democratic members of Congress is - well - interesting.

And somehow we here at Crowley Political Report missed out on the free cellphones.

Speaking to a group of veterans the other day - shortly after having his "Democratic stalker" escorted out of the park by a group of fellow vets, (a kid with a video camera hired by Democratic Congressman Ron Klein) - West offered his supporters this tidbit:

"We live in a country right now with a government that wants to create more victims and make more people dependent upon them. When you read and find out that 47 percent of Americans are not paying  income taxes but yet they are able to vote for their own entitlement programs - be it free healthcare, free education, free cars, free cellphones - all on the backs of the production class."

Then there was this:

"It is not about empowering 535 individuals that are sitting in Washington D.C. that are the absolute most corrupt, most despicable, most dishonerable, most disgusting individuals that you have ever seen."

Ouch!

Rick, Rick, Rick. Really?

Okay, this ad is true - and then it is not.

Rick Scott who appears to be deeply wounded if anyone suggests that his business dealing have been anything but stellar is not shy about doing the same twisting of the truth he accuses is rivals of doing.

This is the second ad Scott is using to tag his rival - Democrat Alex Sink - with blame for Florida's pension losses.

Here's what we said about the first ad:  Yes, Florida's pension fund has been clobbered. But Sink is one of three statewide officials with oversight responsibility.

The other two - Gov. Charlie Crist who was still a Republican when the pension fund took a big hit on Wall Street and Attorney General Bill McCollum who until recently was the party leaderships's favorite candidate for governor.

While Sink may share some of the blame - it would only be a third.

Here's the latest ad:

Let's stroll into the neighborhood tavern and have this little bar bet - drinks for everyone if you can name the Democratic and Republican nominees for Florida's elected Cabinet.

Okay, how about - name the Florida Cabinet offices.

Now that the rowdies have tossed us out of the bar - a tip of the hat to those brave men and women who are running these statewide campaigns with little attention from the media and even less from the voters.

Good news is coming, however.  As we push into the final weeks before the November election you're bound to get a quick campaign profile story and if you're lucky it won't be buried near the furniture ads.

Here's one story that appeared Sunday about the CFO race.

Wow.  This may be the most brutal ad yet in what has been an ugly Florida campaign year.

Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson's new ad against Republican Dan Webster suggests the Webster's religious views are so extreme that he is the equivalent of being a member of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist appears to be in deep trouble in the race to decide who will be Florida's next U.S. Senator.

Crowley Political Report is highly skeptical of any polling in this volatile and unpredictable election year. But we can note trends and it appears that whether Crist is drawing lines in sand or scrambling the alphabet not enough voters are buying it.

The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Republican Marco Rubio at 40 percent with Crist trailing at 28 percent. Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek is at 23 percent.

In a Crowley Political Report exclusive, we've learned that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will attend a dinner at The Breakers in Palm Beach next month.

We're still looking for specific info about the Palm Beach event.  Will Palin drop by Rush Limbaugh's oceanfront mansion which is up the road from the Breakers?

Or will Limbaugh attend the event? It's bound to be a hot and very exclusive ticket.

Palin is timing the visit around a trip to Miami Oct. 6, sponsored by The Liberty and Freedom Foundation.

Here's the LFF announcement about the Miami event:

The Liberty & Freedom Foundation is proud to announce that it will be bringing former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to Miami on Wednesday October 6th, 2010. The lunchtime event will kick off with a Forum at the Waterfront Theater located in the American Airlines Arena at 10:30 am. The 2008 GOP Vice Presidential Candidate will discuss a variety of issues that are important to, and currently affecting, the people of South Florida, followed by a moderated Question & Answer session.

Anyone who has watched No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist's previous campaigns knows that he is not shy about hitting hard and sometimes hitting below the belt.

In this ad, complete with symbolic smoke feeling the screen - Crist suggests that Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek are less than honest.

Crowley Political Report is looking forward to the response ad. This race to be Florida's next U.S. Senator is about to get really ugly.

 
A seven point lead for Democrat Alex Sink over Republican Rick Scott in the new Mason Dixon poll seems impressive but the margin-of-error of plus/minus 4 points really makes the race too close to call.

Mason Dixon polled 625 likely voters. 

A cautionary note - Mason Dixon had Bill McCollum up by 9 points just before the Aug. 24 primary. Scott won by nearly 3 points.

Early voting, hard to reach voters, cell phones and a host of other factors - including that this is just an odd election year -  are making it tough for anyone to do accurate polling.

Still, it is good news at this point for Sink as her campaign tries to convince voters that she is the winning candidate in the race to be Florida's next governor.

Don't be surprised if the next email you get is from the Sink campaign touting the MD numbers.

In May, Politico reported that former Florida Congressman Robert Wexler was on the verge of becoming the next ambassador to Israel.

Now, Wexler, who quit his congressional seat to become head of the Washington-based Middle East think tank, is widely reported to be on the verge of endorsing No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist in the race for the U.S. Senate.

Wildly popular in the Jewish condos of Palm Beach and Broward counties, an endorsement from Democrat Wexler could give a boost to Crist who is desperately trying to  pull a rabbit out of the hat by building a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters.

But Wexler is also a self-described "fire-breathing liberal" and an endorsement of Crist could help rally supporters of Republican Marco Rubio.

Wexler is not a beloved figure outside the condos of South Florida.

His endorsement can also be seen as a slap at Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek and a moment of disloyality to the Democratic Party.

While a Wexler endorsement may help - Crist is going to need a lot more magic to pull of the political trick of winning this election.

Well in long stretch of the truth the Republican Party of Florida - AKA Rick Scott - has a doom and gloom ad suggesting the Democrat Alex Sink is destroying pensions for seniors.

Yes, Florida's pension fund has been clobbered. But Sink is one of three statewide officials with oversight responsibility.

The other two - Gov. Charlie Crist who was still a Republican when the pension fund took a big hit on Wall Street and Attorney General Bill McCollum who until recent was the party leaderships's favorite candidate governor.

While Sink may share some of the blame - it would only be a third.

Here's the ad:

In a new Republican Party of Florida ad, Democratic candidate for Florida governor Alex Sink is portrayed as someone who has supported tax hikes on every from water to electricity - and apparently donuts.

The ad is well produced and could be effective with voters who believe that Democrats love taxes.

It is also the kind of attack that is hard to counter since Republican candidate Rick Scott has never cast a vote for anything.

On the other hand, Crowley Political Report suspects we have not heard the last about that little Medicare fraud issue.

Here's the ad:

During a meeting with the Orlando Sentinel editorial board, newly minted No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist revealed that his wife, Carole Rome is still a Republican - and that's not all.

"My mom and dad are still Republicans," said Crist.

After giving a flip "I call it thinking" answer to a question about his frequent flip-flops on issues, Crist added that some of his flip-flops are, in part,  because, "the older I get the more tolerant I become."

Early in the interview Crist laments that, "I'm a guy who over the years has been pro-life, pro-family, anti-tax, for less governemt, for more freedom. That used to be an 'A' on the Republican test. This year it's not."

See a video of the nearly hour-long interview here.

Not sure if Democrat Alex Sink is hitting the front door but she's tossing a lot newspapers at Republican Rick Scott using tidbits from the St. Petersburg Times and The Florida Times Union criticizing Scott.

We get the feeling here at Crowley Political Report that Scott will once again have a clean sweep of editorial endorsements supporting Sink for governor.

But then we could have predicted that in June.

Here's the new Sink ad:

No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist has a new ad showing off his veto pen. He claims to have used it to stop Republcan Marco Rubio from putting unnecessary pet projects in his district while Rubio was Florida House speaker.

Was Crist being tough on waste or just punishing Rubio for not being supportive of Crist.

Regardless of the reason Crowley Political Report is certain this won't be the last of this type of ad coming from Crist who is well behind Rubio in recent polling of the U.S. Senate race.

  
Conservative leader Sarah Palin is coming to Miami's American Airlines Arena on Wednesday, Oct. 6 "to raise funds to help elect principled grassroots conservatives."

The event is being hosted by the Tea Party group South Florida Conservative and The Liberty and Freedom Foundation.

Crowley Political Report knows little about South Florida Conservative. Their website  leaves a bit to be desired.

One thing is certain, with Palin's visit just five days before President Obama arrives in Miami to host a fundraiser for Democratic candidates, it's going to be hot October in Florida politics.