The poll from Mason-Dixon suggests that McCollum's effort to cast doubt about Scott's honesty may be working among likely Republican primary voters.
Expect the Scott folks to quickly come back saying they expected to the race to tighten, they always knew it would be close and they still expect to win.
And Scott just might win. Voters have been unpredictable this year and a lot depends on voter turnout. Scott's team believes a high turnout gives him the nomination.
You can hear Crowley Political Report's take on the results during To the Point after Meet the Press on WPTV-5 at 10 a.m. Sunday.