Crowley Political Report

Website FiveThirtyEight has another of thoughtful analysis of the U.S. Senate campaigns based on a host of statewide polls and other data.

FiveThirtyEight says their model "gives Republicans a 15 percent chance of taking over the Senate if Charlie Crist caucuses with them, up significantly from 6 percent three weeks ago.

"If Crist does not caucus with them, their chances of a takeover are 11 percent. However, the model does not account for the contingency that someone like Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson could decide to switch parties, which makes their chances slightly better than we suggest here.

"Democrats' chances of gaining a net of one or more seat and re-claiming a 60-seat majority are 7 percent, down from 12 percent three weeks ago. If they could persuade Charlie Crist to caucus with them, however, their chances would improve to 10 percent."

Read more of this very lengthy FiveThirtyEight Senate outlook here.