Six-tenth of a Charlie Crist
06/29/2010
A new report from fivethirtyeight analyzing U.S. Senate races suggests that at this point signs are starting to show that Democrats are stablizing in races across the country.
Fivethirtyeight says that it is good news for Democrats who some believed were in a free-fall.
Whereas, as of our last update, or simulations were projecting an average of 54.0 Democratic and 46.0 Republican seats, we now show 55.2 Democrats, 44.2 Republicans, and 0.6 Charlie Crists.
Which party controls the Senate will rest in large part on what Crist does if he wins - will he be hanging out with Democrats or Republicans?
Here is fivethirtyeight's conclusion about the Sunshine State:
We're somewhat crudely trying to model a 3-way race by running three 2-way races and then amalgamating them together. It's not an ideal solution by any means, but it will probably change, so I'm not going to go into any great amount of detail telling you how ugly it is. With that said, somewhat to my surprise, the polling has pretty clearly established Charlie Crist as a favorite.
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