Crowley Political Report

Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Is Rick Scott a one-term governor

Another poll, another bad day for Florida Gov. Rick Scott. A new Quinnipiac University poll has Scott trailing former Gov. Charlie Crist by 16 points.

Even worse is this tidbit from the Q-poll: 

Florida voters say 50 – 40 percent that Crist’s switch from Republican to independent and now to Democrat is a positive thing that shows he is a pragmatist, rather than a negative thing that shows he lacks core beliefs.  

And then there is this:

Scott’s potential vulnerability is evidenced by the fact that only 32 percent of voters say he deserves a second term in office, including just 28 percent of independent voters.  His job approval rating is a negative 36 – 49 percent, compared to his negative 36 – 45 percent disapproval in a December 19 survey. . .

There is a touch of good news for Scott. The poll suggests he should win the GOP primary:

Scott’s support among Republicans appears pretty solid, although he has a lot of fences to mend with independent voters and he has virtually no crossover appeal to Democrats.

The poll suggests that if Republican Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam wants to challenge Scott in the GOP primary Putnam would have a difficult time. 

Here's how the poll was done:

From March 13 – 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.  The survey includes 353 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

 

 

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Will Allen West fade quietly away?

In one respect you have to feel sorry for Allen West. When the Florida congressman was looking at the political landscape earlier this year, he surely believed that he would easily win a second term.

When the Florida Legislature drew the new congressional map, West took one look at the district drawn for him and quickly realized that there were too many Democrats for him to win that seat. So he looked north, more than 40 miles away, and decided to move.

What has gotten lost in that tidbit of history is the fact that another incumbent Republican, Tom Rooney, hoped to stay in the largely Treasure Coast district. But West bullied his way in. It was clear to Rooney that defeating West in a GOP primary would be impossible. West would have millions of dollars and the adulation of the Tea Party. It was simply easier for Rooney to move over to an agricultural district that stretches across the state.

West was challenged by GOP rival, longtime, Martin County Sheriff Bob Crowder. But Crowder's campaign collapsed almost before it began. Republican voters were not eager to support a candidate who had endorsed Democrat Alex Sink for governor in 2010.

Meanwhile a small Democratic drama was unfolding in the district West had abandoned. Young Democrat Patrick Murphy had planned to challenge West in that district but former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel decided to run there. It quickly became clear to Murphy that he could not win the Democratic nomination.

Murphy followed West north.

Few thought Murphy could defeat West .... and West clearly thought Murphy was just a punk kid, an annoyance on the way to a second term. After a painful campaign, one of the ugliest in Florida, and an equally painful vote count, Murphy won.

While West conceded defeat he has not called Murphy. Interestingly, some of West's supporters are angry that the former Army officer never visited his campaign troops on election night. 

There has been a lot of gloating since West's defeat. Many see West as a political bully who, like the bully in high school who finally gets his comeuppance, deserves to be humiliated.

Sergio Bendixen disagrees with our poll analysis

Prominent pollster Sergio Bendixen of Bendixen & Amandi International disagrees with Crowley Political Report's view of recent polling of Cuban-American voters. That story, which appeared here and in Columbia Journalism Review noted considerably confusion in the reporting of polls and questioned the disparity among pollsters. I think Mr. Bendixen may have missed the point.

Since Mr. Bendixen spent time writing a lengthy rebuttal (which he added as a comment to the original story) - it seems only fair to post his reply here:

From Sergio Bendixen

When I first came to the United States from Peru in 1961, Ricky Ricardo was the only television personality I could identify with. So any time his image is used to challenge anything Cuban, I must come to his defense. 

The recent Crowley Political Report is missing some important information which has obviously clouded the judgment of its author when it comes to his conclusions. 

1.) Most - if not all - researchers and pollsters agree that if you want to accurately measure the voting behavior of a demographic group, exit polling is the best way to do it, as long as it includes interviews with absentee and other early voters. Pre-election polls cannot predict accurately which voters will show up at the polls and which voters will not. Precinct analysis of voting results cannot reveal the voting behavior of Cuban voters because there are no "pure Cuban" precincts in Miami-Dade County or any other county in the United States. The top 50 "Cuban precincts" in Miami-Dade County (according to the U. S. Census) have a substantial percentage (20% to 50%) of African American, White Anglo and non-Cuban Hispanic registered voters within them.

 2.) The only organizations that conducted an exit poll in Florida among Cuban voters were Edison Research (for the major television networks and AP), the Pew Hispanic Center and Bendixen & Amandi International (B&A: my firm). All of the other polls and studies that Mr. Crowley mentions in his report were either pre-election polls or post-election precinct analysis of Miami-Dade "Cuban precincts." Those include the FIU/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely Florida Hispanic voters conducted by Professor Eduardo Gamarra in October, the FIU post-election precinct analysis utilizing "ecological regression" methodology conducted by Professor Dario Moreno (incorrectly identified in the Crowley report as an exit poll), and the Latino Decisions "eve of the election" Florida Hispanic poll. The report also cites an electoral analysis by Professor Ben Bishin of the University of California at Riverside.

 3.) Mr. Crowley misses an obvious pattern in the data. The three statewide exit polls show extremely similar results. All of them show Obama and Romney splitting the statewide Cuban vote (Edison and Pew had Obama at 49% and Bendixen & Amandi had Obama at 48%). In other words, all three exit polls had the same finding - Cuban voters supported a Democratic presidential candidate at a historic level in 2012.

Florida, Cuban voters, the media and what went wrong

This first appeared in Columbia Journalism Review

 

By Brian E. Crowley

Somehow the Florida election is beginning to feel a bit like an episode from the old I Love Lucy comedy. Not only did the Sunshine State hang over election results for four days—and still counting in some races—but there has been forehead-slapping confusion over who won the Cuban-American vote here, by how much, and what it might mean. The confusion has been fueled by a collection of all-over-the-map poll numbers variously cited, depending on the news source, to draw premature conclusions about this unique voting population.

So let’s start with this widely repeated statement by Cuban-American Ricky Ricardo to his wife: “Lucy, you’ve got some ‘splaining’ to do.”

South Florida could end it for Obama tonight

Hillsborough may be Florida's number one swing county but regardless of what happens there, President Obama could lose the Sunshine State if he fails to get big numbers in South Florida.

In 2008, Obama got 529,000 votes from the big South Florida counties - Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Half of those votes came from one county - Broward where Obama got 255,000 votes. Miami-Dade gave him 139,000 votes and Palm Beach 135,000 votes.

Obama defeated Republican John McCain by 237,000 votes statewide. If Obama's vote count in South Florida slips below 400,000 it will be a sign that he is in big trouble. In 2000, Al Gore got on 366,000 votes from those three counties. In 2004, John Kerry got 373,000 votes. Both men lost to George W. Bush.

Other counties to watch:

In 2008 Obama won Alachua by 27,000 votes, Orange by 87,000, Leon by 36,000 and Hillborough by 36,000. If those margins start to slip, Obama could lose the state.

For Mitt Romney watch these counties where McCain won. Romney will need to hold or improve on McCain's margins: Duval, 8,000 votes, Escambia, 30,000, Indian River 11,000, Martin 11,000, Marion 19,000, Santa Rosa, 36,000, St. Johns, 34,000, St. Lucie 15,000, Lee, 28,000.

 

 

Florida official says 2.27 million votes already cast Dems lead

Chris Cate, commuications director for Florida Secretary of State, just tweeted the lastest election results:

"Total Votes Cast: 2.27 Million. Early Votes: 817k w/ 291k GOP & 392k DEM. Absentee Votes: 1.45 M w/ 635k GOP & 574k DEM."

Absentee ballots are nearly doubling early votes at this point. Democrats have a 100,000 vote edge in early votes while Republicans hold a 61,000 vote edge in absentee ballots cast. What does it all mean? Too early to tell. Early voting continues for the next five days.

One trend may be emerging....early voting appears to be below 2008 levels.

According to a 2008 story in USA Today: About 4.3 million people cast votes during early voting and absentee balloting; Democrats outnumbered Republicans by almost 360,000 among those voters, but it was unknown how they voted.

Should Democrats be worried? Perhaps.

Why was the Nelson-Mack debate kept off some front pages?

This first appeared in Columbia Journalism Review.

By Brian E. Crowley

One of the shameful things about Florida’s US Senate race is that the two candidates, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson and Republican challenger, Congressman Connie Mack, agreed to meet in just one debate.

That statewide television debate was Wednesday night. And while it was extensively covered by the media, I was amazed that some of the state’s newspapers did not put their stories on the front page Thursday morning.

My view is that in making that choice, they did a serious disservice to Florida voters. This is an important race not only for Floridians but for the nation, as the contest could help determine which political party will control the US Senate.

It’s true that the content of the hour-long debate left much to be desired (the candidates argued at length about a tax credit for cows on Nelson’s property, and whether Mack was claiming more than one homestead exemption), but as an editor I would have done what most Florida newspapers did—played the debate story prominently on A1.

Editors at The Palm Beach Post, The Miami Herald, and the Tallahassee Democrat took a different route, pushing their stories to the inside pages. The clear signal to readers was that these newspapers did not deem the debate—and by extension, the Senate race—important, and perhaps neither should the readers.

Obama and Romney have more courage than Nelson and Mack

No matter what you think about Barack Obama and Mitt Romney you have to give them credit - they are willing to debate each other. Not once but three times before a national audience. And as much as their strategists may try to control the event, once the camera is on - the two men are on their own.

Everything is on the line for them. Whichever one of them loses this election, it will be the end of his political career. We may not want to have a moment of silence for them at the start of this first debate but we might want to have a silent moment of respect for this important element of our democracy.

Unfortunately, the only silence in Florida is coming from the candidates. Florida's U.S. Senate candidates -  Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie Mack - have agreed to just a single debate.

After much squabbling, they will get together on Oct 17 for a debate that will be broadcast on many Florida television stations. One debate. That's it. 

That's wrong.

Florida's voters deserve better. Our politicians enjoy telling us about their courage and leadership but cowering behind 30-second political ads is neither courageous nor the sign of a leader. 

Sadly, Nelson and Mack are not the only pols who fear debates. We see it in congressional races and local races. It's a shame. Even personal contact with voters is limited largely to friendly crowds who already agree. 

Florida voters deserve better. They deserve to hear from their candidates. They deserve to have more than one debate. 

Democratic chair should resign over his remarks

It is time for Mark Alan Siegel to resign. The chairman of the Palm Beach County Democratic Party has made an ass of himself. In a video taped tirade, he says things such as this:

"I'm Jewish. I'm not a fan of any religion other than Judaism."

He also declares he is not a fan of Christianity.

"The Christians just want us to be there so we can all be slaughtered and converted and bring on the second coming of Jesus Christ. They are not our friends."

Siegel has apologized. In a statement he says: 

"I apologize to all Democrats and Floridians for my ill chosen words last night. After watching the interview I realize that what I said did not accurately make the point I was trying to establish.

"More importantly I apologize to all Christians, Jews and other people of faith for any embarrassment or anger my remarks may have caused. Throughout my life I have practiced religious tolerance among all people of faith.

"I am sincerely sorry for any remarks I made that may have diminished that record. I alone am responsible for my remarks and I pray that they are not taken as the position of the Palm Beach County Democratic Party." 

Florida Democratic Party chairman Rod Smith has called on Siegel to resign but so far he has refused. Instead he is taking a leave of absence.

Siegel is being foolish. It is time to resign. Judge for yourself. Watch the video.

Florida media goes to extremes at Republican National Convention

This first appeared today in Columbia Journalism Review

By Brian E. Crowley

TAMPA — On Wednesday, the morning after the first night of the Republican National Convention, the front page of the Fort Lauderdale-based Sun Sentinel—the paper with the fourth-largest daily circulation in Florida—had not a single story about the GOP gathering. Not even a tease to inside coverage. There was nothing on the front about Ann Romney’s speech. There was nothing about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s speech, or that of any other speaker. The lede story was about problems with school bus drivers. A top-of-the-fold feature package was about a 17-year-old girl who is a high school quarterback.

Things were very different in Tampa, 264 miles to the northwest, where the GOP has gathered this week. Here, the Tampa Bay Times and Politico teamed together to publish a four-section package of more 50 stories and dozens of graphics, photos, and sidebar tidbits. It spread over 32 pages. Eight of those pages were taken up by a paid political advertisement for the American Clean Skies Foundation (the organization promotes the production of natural gas in shale rock); the remaining 24 were largely filled with convention coverage.

Stories ranged from speech coverage to an interesting analysis of the Republican Party that Mitt Romney is about to lead. There were articles about the Florida delegation bus being delayed for hours, problems with traffic, celebrity sightings, and even how the convention has had little impact on kids going to school. To say that there was no stone left unturned is to put it mildly.

RNC and bad hair, Iran, Isaac and urinal ads

Overheard in the lobby of the downtown Tampa Hyatt where the Wisconsin delegation is staying for the Republican National Convention:

A woman, her hair a mess - "Now I believe there is a Republican war on women. Look what this place does to my hair."

There may not have been much conventioneering because of Hurricane Isaac but as conventions always do, there were some choice moments. 

A few tidbits and observations:

To say the police presence here is noticeable is to put it mildly. Tampa has turned into an armed camp. This Tweet sums it up:

@Mrsralphreed: When I lived in Iran under martial law...security was not as bad as it is at the @GOPconvention!!!

Poor Mitt Romney. Not only does the Republican nominee have to share coverage with Hurricane Isaac but he also has been forced to give up air time to breaking news that Snooki had a baby.

Apparently some journalists think talking about Romney being a Mormon is a sensitive topic. CNN was exploring the issue with these words on the screen -The "M" word. 

The "M" word? Really?

Meanwhile, the National Federation of Pachyderm Clubs is setting up shop at the convention. We don't think it is a "Save the Elephants" conservation society.

Young TV reporter, "I'm looking for a delegate to interview are you a delegate?" Sorry. No.

Remember this time four years ago when Sarah Palin was the big star of the convention?

Tampa television station on-air message to convention delegates:

"We are the lightning capitol of the world"

"Humidity is not your friend"

"Don’t feed the seagulls"

Gingrich just walked by with his mini entourage....and with the look of a man who desperately wants to be important again.

From National Journal: “The split screen is a killer,” said Ari Fleischer (a reference to convention and hurricane coverage on sames days).

One steps inside the men's room of a very nice hotel and finds an elegant looking, postcard size, invitation featuring all the symbolism of the convention. The invite is to a downtown Tampa bar. Each urinal has an invite carefully placed on each urinal.

Take one with you?

 

Miami Herald's Caputo gets Romney campaign all worked up

This story was first published by Columbia Journalism Review.

By Brian E. Crowley

Tucked somewhere into the recesses of the hidden place where only those with knowledge of the secret handshake can go, are the many files accumulated during the vetting process of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

The presidential campaign of Mitt Romney certainly pored over votes Ryan cast during 14 years in Congress as they were preparing to select Romney’s running mate. So one can only wonder if this little tidbit, picked up by The Miami Herald’s Marc Caputo, was noticed by the campaign’s inquisitors—Ryan voted at least twice in opposition to our country’s embargo with Cuba.

While nearly all of the nation’s media focused, as they should have, on Ryan’s views on overhauling the federal budget and Medicare, Caputo took the time to peek into an issue that is at the forefront of political interests of South Florida’s Cuban-Americans. When he did, it exploded.

Caputo acknowledges that he looked into Ryan’s positions on the Cuban embargo at the suggestion of sources. At 4:39 p.m. on Saturday, less than eight hours after Romney stood on the U.S.S. Wisconsin in Virginia to announce that Ryan was joining the Republican ticket, Caputo posted a 410-word entry on the Herald’s “Naked Politics” blog that opened with:

Lynn University in Boca Raton hosting foreign policy debate between Romney and Obama

Folks at Lynn Univeristy of been working and planning for months to get everything ready for the Oct. 22 presidential debate. 

Here's the latest media release from the Commission on Presidential Debates:

Frank J. Fahrenkopf, Jr. and Michael D. McCurry, co‐chairmen of the non‐partisan, non‐profit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), today announced formats for the presidential and vice presidential debates that feature extended discussion of major issues to be announced in advance.

The formats for the 90‐minute debates are as follows:

 First presidential debate (October 3, 2012, University of Denver, Denver, CO)

The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.

The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have   to respond.  The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic.

Vice presidential debate (October 11, 2012, Centre College, Danville, KY)

The debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics and be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each.    The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond.  The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the question.

Second presidential debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)

The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues.  Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion.  The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.

Third presidential debate (October 22, Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL)

The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate and will focus on foreign policy. 

All debates will be moderated by a single individual and will take place from 9:00‐10:30 p.m. Eastern Time.  There will be no opening statements and two‐minute closing statements in all the debates.   In all the debates except town meeting, the CPD recommends that the candidates be seated at a table with the moderator.  Moderators will be selected and announced in August.

Herald, Times and the complexity of Florida's Hispanic vote

This story originally appeared in Columbia Journalism Review.

By Brian E. Crowley

FLORIDA — One of the most wearisome elements of media coverage of the 2012 election campaign is the often trite and lazy reporting about Hispanic/Latino voters. So it was refreshing to read a story on Sunday byMiami Herald political writer Marc Caputo that looked beyond the usual caricature of such voters.

Caputo’s lede immediately let readers know that they were in for something different here:

Rep. Ana Rivas Logan’s opponents call her loads of names on the campaign trail.

But one seemed to bother her more than others: “Nicaraguan.”

“They’re making calls to the little old Cubans, telling them, ‘Don’t vote for her. She’s a Nicaraguan. Your commitment is with the Cuban vote,’” a choked-up Logan said last week about her bare-knuckle race against fellow Republican Rep. Jose Felix “Pepe” Diaz.

Welcome to Miami.

This is a place where calling the daughter of Cuban parents a “Nicaraguan” is a slur even though she was born in Nicaragua and says so on her website. Diaz denies participating in or authorizing the attack.

The fact that it was 1) used against the Cuban-American lawmaker and 2) worked enough to deeply unsettle her is a sign of the hardball politics in Miami-Dade. And it stands as a clear sign that Florida’s Hispanic vote is anything but monolithic.

Just beyond the Spanish-English language barrier is a not-so-brave world of ethnic tensions, borderline racism and nationalistic pride that will subtly play out this election season…

 

Often the media—especially the national media—concentrates its reporting about Florida Hispanics on the Cuban community. There is no question that Cuban-American voters are a critical segment of the South Florida vote. But the growing generational divide within the community is too often overlooked by reporters. Second- and third-generation Cubans tend to be less rigid about some issues than first-generation Cubans who fled the Castro regime.

But the Herald’s Caputo went well beyond that obvious difference. He delved into areas that are rarely reported. For example, he wrote:

Obama arrives in Florida, he is no Jimmy Carter

President Obama arrives in Jacksonville this afternoon to start a two-day campaign swing through the Sunshine State. Florida has not been kind to Democratic presidential candidates. Since 1952, Florida has voted for the Democratic nominee just four times in 15 elections.

Florida may be a swing state but in fact it hasn't done much swinging. Even the four Democrat victories have reasonable explanations that would suggest Democrats won more because of historical flukes than a genuine swing to the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump proves Sarasota Republicans are either brilliant or idiots

First a hat-tip to the Tampa Bay Times for popping this tidbit - the Sarasota Republican Party has named Donald Trump "Statesman of the Year."

The part-time Palm Beach resident and full-time blow-hard, is renowned for waking up each morning with a new idea for how to get his name in front of the media. With his birther "investigation" apparently still underway, Trump has proven time and time again that having a great deal of money does not protect one from being an idiot.

So what are the fine folks in Sarasota thinking? 

Best guess....they knew Trump would get them tons of publicity. And he will. Unfortunately, even their fellow Florida Republicans are going to be clucking about this decision.

Statesman of the Year?

On behalf of the Sarasota Chamber of Commerce - it's only a joke. Right?

 

Connie Mack, Allen West and Lois Frankel duck the voters

As folks fire up their grills and stare at the fireworks, they may want to remember that the Founding Fathers engaged in long, deep debates about the issues confronting the nation. In fact, without those debates and the compromises they fostered, we might be a very different country.

In our latest report for Columbia Journalism Review, Crowley Political Report editor Brian E. Crowley examines why Florida congressional Allen West and Lois Frankel, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Connie Mack, appear so reluctant to participate in political debates.

By Brian E. Crowley

FLORIDA — Former Miami Herald humor columnist Dave Barry once wrote: “I can win an argument on any topic, against any opponent. People know this, and steer clear of me at parties. Often, as a sign of their great respect, they don’t even invite me.”

In Florida, candidates are invited to the party—debates—they just refuse to go. When it comes to debating in the Sunshine State, candidates for federal office are saying, “No.” It is becoming a troubling trend.

Caputo, Schale, and questions about Florida presidential polls

Here't the latest report in Columbia Journalism Review taking a look at the polling controversy in Florida:

Herald’s Caputo dives deep on diverging polls

Do other news organizations undermine their credibility when they don’t do the same?

By Brian E. Crowley

Voters here have reason to be confused this week as they look at two polls, coming out one day apart, with one showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state and the other showing Romney leading Obama.

Majority of Florida voters say Obama does not deserve a second term

For Mitt Romney supporters in Florida, the headline from the today's Quinnipiac Poll is that Romney leads Barack Obama 47-41.  But that may be the least interesting of the poll's numbers - afterall, leads come and go.

What should trouble Florida Democrats is this set of numbers:

52 percent said Obama does not deserve a second term. 52 percent said they don't approve of the job he is doing. And just 45 percent have a favorable view of the president.

All of this comes on the heels of a barrage of Obama campaign ads.

This is grim for Democrats. Not insurmountable but grim.

From May 15 – 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,722 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.  

Here are the complete poll results from Quinnipiac: