Crowley Political Report

Florida newspapers and the mystery of Sheldon Adelson

Who is Sheldon Adelson, and why does he matter to the presidential campaign? If you are a Florida voter and rely on your local newspaper for your information, you likely have no clue. Yet Adelson is likely to be—along with his wife, Dr. Miriam Adelson—one of the most important figures in determining who will win the January 31 Florida Republican primary.

That is the start of new Columbia Journalism Review story by Crowley Political Report. 

Other excepts:

This is a moment when Florida voters should be able to look to their news organizations to dissect the attack ads they’re seeing and hearing, explore who is paying for these ads (to the extent it can be known, an admitted challenge) and, perhaps, why they’re paying, and to offer a primer on super PACs and the complex new world of campaign spending.

So far, from my reading and watching, Florida’s news organizations have largely fallen short.

Some very strange campaign videos

 Warning: You either need a very wierd sense of humor or a strong tolerance for the absurd to watch these videos.

Let's start with this gentlemen who makes texting and driving appear safe: 

 

 Crowley Political Report is left speechless by this next ad. It is oddly both good and awful.  

 

And then as you cruise the video world, you discover a very unusual candidate who has some strong words for Gingrich

 

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Marco Rubio explains the Hispanic vote in Florida

Hispanic voters have become the focus of attention for much of the media during the past couple of days as Florida's GOP Jan. 31 primary draws closer. 

As Crowley Political Report noted in an earlier post, Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has a column in The Washington Post today where he warns Republicans that Hispanic voters are drifting away from the GOP. He offers the party four things they can do to bring Hispanic voters into the fold.

This morning, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio was featured on CBS This Morning, where he talked about the diversity of Hispanics and the issues that are important to them. And as is required in any media appearance by Rubio, he was obliged to answer questions about becoming the nominee for vice president.

Rubio calls the race for president, "close, yes, close."

He goes on to say that the importance of  moving up Florida's primary has been proven because "what you are watching now is that all the major issues that our country is facing are being confronted in Florida."

See it below and follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport.

  

Why Newt Gingrich could win Florida

Long, straight and narrow, the asphalt road is ragged and lonely. Juan Berrios stands in front of his attractive home in what he thought would be a thriving neighborhood. Instead, his neighbors are few.  Juan is angry and disgusted.

 A couple hours earlier, Juan was at a rally for Mitt Romney in Lehigh Acres. He stood there in the heat, a husky, friendly guy with a small, brown, long-haired dog named “Bo” on a leash.  Juan listened carefully as Romney spoke for a few minutes in front of a home that was in foreclosure.

 LeHigh Acres has been hammered by the housing crisis and thousands of homes are either in foreclosure or have owners desperately struggling to hang on.  Romney and his entourage arrived in expensive black SUV’s that cost nearly as much as some of the smaller homes in the community.

 Juan listened closely. He had driven nearly 30 minutes to hear what Romney had to say. Romney made a point of telling the several hundred people gathered at the rally that he understood that the foreclosed home behind him represented the lost dreams and shattered lives of a family.

 Back at his home, Juan, 58, said he was unimpressed. “I didn’t hear anything that would make a difference in the people’s lives here,” he said as he looked around at the vacant lots that isolate his home on this quiet stretch of road.

 “We need someone who will fight,” said Juan, who left Atlanta where he owned a small limousine service. “People are hurting. We need jobs. We need development to come back.”

Jeb Bush warns that Hispanic voters are drifting away from the GOP

 Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose wife Columba is from Mexico, has written about the the importance of Hispanic voters in the presidential campaign. In an opinion piece for The Washington Post, Bush says the Republican Party must do a better job to bring Hispanics into the GOP tent.

Some excerpts:

In the 15 states that are likely to decide who controls the White House and the Senate in 2013, Hispanic voters will represent the margin of victory.

For the Republican Party, the stakes could not be greater. Just eight years after the party’s successful effort to woo Hispanic voters in 2004, this community — the fastest-growing group in the United States, according to census data — has drifted away.

. . .

(Republicans)  need to recognize this is not a monochromatic community but, rather, a deeply diverse one. . .Some came here 50 years ago to make a better life; others came last year. Some have lots of education, some have none. The traditional Republican emphasis on the importance of the individual has never been more relevant. . . Like all voters, Hispanics respond to candidates who show respect and understanding for their experiences.

Bush goes on to talk about how Republicans can engage Hispanics on issues involving business, education and immigration. Visit the Washington Post here to read the rest of Bush's comments.

One thing is missing - Bush still does not endorse a candidate in the GOP Florida primary. 

That seems pointlessly odd.

Florida newspapers did a dismal job of reporting about Iowa caucus

Crowley Political Report took a look at Florida newspaper front pages on Wednesday morning and found that overall the newspapers were unimaginative and did a dismal job for their readers.

It was especially surprising to see the Orlando Sentinel and Sun-Sentinel front pages which were used simply to point readers to their inside pages to find a story about Iowa.

We explored Florida's Iowa coverage for Columbia Journal Review. Some excerpts: 

By the end of this month, the contest for the Republican presidential nomination will move to the Sunshine State, so you might think that readers here had a particular interest in the outcome of this week’s Iowa caucuses.

If so, they weren’t well-served by the state’s newspapers. A look at a dozen Florida front pages from Wednesday showed that nearly all relied on The Associated Press or their parent companies’ Washington bureaus to report the results from Iowa. 

Two of state’s major papers gave particularly short shrift to the caucus results. Both the Orlando Sentinel and the Sun-Sentinel played stories about Iowa inside their Wednesday morning editions. The Sun-Sentinel teased from a small front-page box to 3A, the Orlando Sentinel from the front-page mast to A17.

The late hour when the caucus was finally called for Mitt Romney may have had something to do with those decisions—and the Sun-Sentinel also directed print readers to its website—but the papers’ coverage was not any more impressive online.

Both newspapers are part of the Tribune chain, and it was surprising to see how their next-day coverage treated the caucuses as a minor event. The newspapers seemed to be telling readers that they knew they simply could not compete with late results and overwhelming television and web coverage.

Around much of the state the coverage was similarly uninspired, the headlines unimaginative and predictable:

“Down to the wire in Iowa” - Bradenton Herald and Daytona Beach News-Journal

“Photo finish in Iowa” - Sun-Sentinel, “A photo finish for GOP” - Miami Herald, and “GOP photo finish in Iowa” - Tampa Tribune.

There was a “Dead heat in chilly Iowa” - Naples Daily News and a “Deadlock in Iowa” -The Palm Beach Post

As the Columbia Journalism Report story continues, we exam how other Florida newspapers looked on Wednesday morning and what some of them did on Thursday morning.

Read the rest of the story here and see which newspaper did the best job.

 

Newt Gingrich, Tea Party and why Mitt Romney may lose Florida

Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest. 

In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.

That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.

But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich.  The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters."   Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.

Why?

Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.

Those folks are not going to vote for Romney.

 

Here's the Q Poll trendline:

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

                     Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 22  Aug 04

                     2011      2011       2011      2011

 

Perry                 4       5      28      13

Gingrich         35      17       7       4

Romney          22      21      22      23

Bachmann        4       4       5       6

Santorum          2       1       2       1

Paul                     8       3       6       9

Huntsman         2       1       2       1

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Will the Tea Party give Florida to Newt Gingrich?

A new poll shows Newt Gingrich supported by 50 percent of likely-voter Florida Republicans. Mitt Romney comes in at 19 percent and Herman Cain is at 10 percent.

What Crowley Political Report finds most interesting is that Gingrich gets 54 percent of the vote from Republicans who say they are Tea Party supporters.

Why does this matter?

Was the media fair during Herman Cain's Florida visit?

Crowley Political Report has joined Columbia Journalism Review in its effort to monitor media coverage during the 2012 campaign.

Today, CPR wrote about the media's reporting on Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain's visit to Florida.

Was it fair? Did the coverage say something about the media?

We look at Cain being questioned about the "wet foot, dry foot" immigration policy toward Cubans, his question about speaking "Cuban,"  and how the media reacted.

An excerpt:

Eleven seconds. That’s how long the exchange lasted between Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain and Miami Herald political reporter Marc Caputo during a campaign swing through South Florida last week.

During a multi-city visit that took Cain to a senior center in Sweetwater, Miami’s Little Havana, Coral Springs, West Palm Beach and Palm Beach, the most newsworthy moment, judging by the resulting press coverage, occurred in those 11 seconds.

While in Sweetwater walking toward the senior center, Caputo, his video camera aimed at Cain, said to the candidate, “I want to ask you about, do you mind, about Cuba, about your Cuba policy, what you think about the wet-foot, dry-foot policy?”

Cain, looking and sounding puzzled, answered, “The wet-foot, dry-foot policy?”

...

...while the Florida media did a good job of  capturing the entirety of Cain’s Florida trip, media outside the state often took the easy way out: grabbing the tidbit about speaking “Cuban” and/or the “wet-foot, dry-foot” exchanges, both of which served to confirm the (again, not unfounded) media narrative that Candidate Cain does not have a good grasp of things foreign policy. That became the story —We’ve confirmed our hunch, again! Our work here is done. The episode may have revealed something about Cain, but the way it was covered revealed as much about the media.

Please read the complete Columbia Journalism Report here.

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Art by Patrick Crowley

St. Pete Times, Miami Herald may sign exclusive deal with Mason Dixon poll

Florida's political polling landscape is changing with an expected announcement that the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald will sign a 5-year deal with Mason Dixon to do exclusive polling for the newspapers.

The Times/Herald already works closely in providing their readers with coverage of the 2012 elections. The news organizations also combined their Tallahassee bureaus.

The newspapers have long done joint polling, usually using two pollsters - one Republican, one Democratic.

Sources tell Crowley Political Report that the agreement will allow for more polling throughout the year giving Florida readers a deeper snapshot of issues, campaigns, and voters.

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Why the Quinnipiac poll goes too far in looking at the Florida Senate race

Florida Republican voters can stay home next year because the nominee for U.S. Senate has already been decided, according to Quinnipiac University.

In fact, the Q's assistant director, Peter Brown, suggests that Congressman Connie Mack has such a formidable lead over his rivals - Adam Hasner, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister - that they should quit now.

Really?

“Although 45 percent of GOP voters, including 59 percent of GOP women, say they are undecided, Mack becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination,” Brown said.  “Mack’s candidacy may force the other GOP contenders to reconsider whether they want to stay in the race.”

That tidbit comes from the Quinnipiac press release about the survey results.

There is no question that the poll suggests that 30 seconds after Mack entered the race he jumped into a huge lead.   The survey of 513 registered Republicans (margin of error 4.3), shows 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

Yes, this is good news for Mack.  Clearly his name recognition - even if some of those voters only know his father, former U.S. Sen. Connie Mack - is a big help.  Mack can now go to potential donors and tell them it's time to get on board.

And the poll results are particularly dismal for Hasner who falls behind the unimpressive campaign of McCalister. As for LeMieux, if the poll is right, the former U.S. Senator continues to have a tough time convincing Florida Republicans that he deserves to go back to Washington.

But is Brown right to draw the conclusion that Mack is so strong the other candidates should consider quitting?

Nope.

Brown's comments about Quinnipiac polls have increasingly had little to do with political reality. He tends to offer opinions that seem out character for what should be an analytical look at the polling results

For example, in this poll, the Q once again looks at Florida Gov. Rick Scott's job approval  (36 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove) .

Brown describes those numbers with "Scott’s job approval remains in the toilet."  

Hardly an academic approach.

The poll suggests that Mack (40 percent)  and Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson (42 percent)  are in a dead heat.

Brown concludes:  “The fact that Mack is essentially tied with Nelson, who has been a statewide political figure for two decades, should set off warning bells at Democratic headquarters.”

Perhaps, but Brown jumps to a conclusion that a single poll, a year before the election, does not necessarily support. 

Finally, Brown gives us this tidbit:

“In a race as close as the Nelson-Mack affair could become, how President Barack Obama does in the Sunshine State in his re-election could play a major role in deciding who wins the Senate seat,” said Brown.

While Crowley Political Report is delighted to have Brown's opinion, it must be noted that there is nothing in the Q-poll that asks anything about Obama or his impact on the Florida U.S. Senate race in 2012.

The Quinnipiac Poll can be a useful look at a moment-in-time in the campaign when it sticks to the polls results. The meaningless commentary, however, casts doubts on the university's ability to understand its own data.

 

 

 

 

Florida voters trust Obama and Romney

A new Quinnipiac Unviersity poll released today suggests that Florida voters are evenly divided between Republican Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama.  While these results have little meaning at this point in the 2012 election, there are some interesting tidbits in the poll.

First, the most worrisome number for Obama is 83 percent.

That is the percentage of Florida voters who said they are either "very dissatisfied" (52 percent), or "somewhat dissatisfied" (23 percent), when asked what they think about "the way things are going in the nation today."

The poll fails to explore that question further, so we don't know whether these voters are dissatisfied with Obama, Congress, Wall Street, or all of the above.

Still, no sitting president wants to enter an election year with those kinds of numbers. Dissatisfied voters also are persuadeable voters and that's a good sign for Republicans.

The number one issue for Florida voters remains the economy (55 percent), followed by the federal deficit (13 percent), and health care (11 percent). All other issues were in signal digits.

With few signs of a significantly improving economy between now and November 2012, the dissatisfaction numbers and top issues concerns are not likely to change. This should worry the White House which needs Florida's 29 electoral votes to win a second term.

Good news for Obama - Florida voters believe he is "honest and trustworthy" (52 percent).  But Mitt Romney did as well as Obama with 51 percent.  Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich hover between 37 percent and 40 percent.

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Can Herman Cain be the next Bill Clinton?

Women love Bill Clinton. Even after Clinton wagged his finger at the television camera and angrily said, "I did not have sex with that woman."

Even after they watched Chelsea walk between her parents as they headed toward Marine One, the presidential helicopter.

When it was all over, Clinton made a trip to Miami. After his speech, women rushed the rope line to shake his hand and be close to him.

Why? Crowley Political Report has asked that question of many women over the years. They smile. They agree what Clinton did was wrong. 

But they like him and they are willing to ignore his sexual transgressions.

So far, Herman Cain has not been accused of anything nearly as severe as the misconduct of Bill Clinton.

Cain has steadfastedly denied doing anything wrong.  The women who have come forward have, at this point, largely accused Cain of the kind of boorish behavior often committed by a 14-year old.

Two of the women,  Karen Kraushaar and Sharon Bialek, are preparing to have a joint press conference to talk more about their allegations. Other women may join them.

Cain says they are liars.

Someone is lying.

The fact is, that while Cain denies the accusations and supporters defend him, the questions will linger - even if he becomes the GOP nominee. Even if he becomes the next president.

What his campaign must calculate now, is whether Cain will be granted the same political immunity that was given to Bill Clinton.

Will women voters feel the same way about Cain as they did Clinton?

And do women voters need to hear from Cain's wife, before they make a decision about Cain?

What would Bill do?

Of course there is one major difference between Bill and Herman.  Clinton was accused of consensual relations with other women.  Cain is being accused of unwanted behavior.

 

 

Will Republican delegates pick Jeb Bush to be the nominee?

By mid-morning, the folks on Morning Joe seemed to have a little had too much caffeine. It started with Joe Scarborough and Michael Steele talking about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention.

This led them to fantasy land, where the dispirited delegates would rise up and proclaim that Jeb Bush should, no, MUST, be the party nominee.

Chants and shouts would ring through the hall, as a reddened Jeb Bush insisted that he does not want the nomination.

Finally, unable to turn down the passionate pleas from the delegates - Jeb Bush becomes the 2012 Republican presidential candidate.

This will not happen.

Now understand, Crowley Political Report would love a brokered convention. Delegate count after delegate count. 

Deals, drama, and great television. It would turn the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa into a political reality show instead of the achingly dull info commercial of today's conventions.

Voters would be excited. Delegates would be energized with real power. The convention could go on for days. 

Every four years, political writers dream of having a brokered convention. In 2008, there was high hope that Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama would fight it out until the last delegate on the convention floor collapsed in exhaustion.

The last time there were multiple ballots at the GOP convention was 1948. Thomas E. Dewey needed three ballots to lock up the nomination against strong opposition.

In 1976, Republicans nearly had a brokered convention when Ronald Reagan came within a whisker of defeating Gerald Ford.  Both men spent a lot of time making backroom deals to win the nomination.

The last Democratic brokered convention was in Chicago in 1952. Prior to the convention President Truman had urged Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson to run, but he declined. At the convention, Stevenson gave a great speech and the delegates swooned.

Delegates demanded that Stevenson accept the nomination. He did. Stevenson lost to Dwight Eisenhower. Stevenson was nominated again in 1956. He lost again.

 A few years ago, New York Times photographer Stephen Crowley found Stevenson's portrait at the DNC - hanging in the back of a coat closet.

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Boca Raton's Lynn University to host 2012 presidential debate

Boca Raton, Florida's Lynn University will be the site of the third presidential debate in 2012.  The Commission on Presidential Debates picked the University of Denver to host the first debate, and Hofstra University to host the second debate.

The vice presidential debate will be at Centre College in Danville, Ky.

While the Commission has been extremely successful at hosting debates, the candidates have not always been cooperative. 

In 1996, Bill Clinton and Bob Dole were unable to agree on having a third debate, so it was scrapped at the last minute.

Lynn University is a small, private university with fewer than 2,5oo undergraduate students. Many of the students are from outside the United States.

From Lynn:

Lynn’s vision is to be recognized as one of the most innovative, international, and individualized small universities in America. Lynn University will capitalize on its youth, location, and close student and faculty bonds to become a forerunner institution, a different kind of learning center, an independent, innovative 21st Century university that is unusually devoted to preparing young persons for America’s and the world’s future.

Florida presidential primary will be Jan. 31, New Hampshire is not pleased

In a short meeting, the committee to pick Florida's presidential primary date overwhelmingly settled on Jan 31.  This will not make Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina happy.

The New Hampshire Union-Leader is clearly unhappy. Here's what political columnist John DiStaso had to say yesterday about Florida's move to Jan. 31.

That creates quite a mess and clearly means that the New Hampshire presidential primary, which traditionally follows only the Iowa caucuses, could well be held in early- to mid-January — a month to six weeks before previously envisioned.

The man empowered to set the New Hampshire primary date isn't talking about dates or even ranges of dates at this point.

“We'll act accordingly,” New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner told the Granite Status.

Florida GOP thanks Rick Perry for breakfast votes for Herman Cain

 Herman Cain whooped Rick Perry soundly in Florida Republican Party straw poll Saturday leaving one critical question - Does the Florida GOP still exist or is it now the Florida Tea Party?

Cain - the Godfather's pizza guy. Mr. 9-9-9.

He left Perry drowning in tomato sauce. Cain got 37 percent of the more than 2,500 votes cast. Perry got 15 percent. Romney, who decided not to participate in Presidency 5, got 14 percent.

The sad candidacy of the strident, anti-everything Rick Santorum got nearly 11 percent followed by his political twin, Ron Paul at a tad over 10 percent.

Poor Perry. His swaggering Texas image crumbles in every debate. The delegates may have been disappointed when Perry looked lost at Thursday's CPAC debate, but by golly he bought them breakfast.

Perry told them they were important. He said Florida was important. Shucks,  Presidency 5 was supposed to be a major jumping off point for the Perry campaign.

Is Perry doomed?

No.

Is Cain going to be the GOP nominee?

No.

Will the Sunday talk shows go on and on and on about this with dire warnings that Perry better get his act together? (Note: think Ames, Iowa and Michele Bachmann).

Yes.

Does anybody at this point really understand what is going on with Florida Republicans?

No.

Is the Florida Republican Party being taken over by the Tea Party?

Yes.

And who is the leader of the Florida Tea Party?

Gov. Rick Scott.

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Democrats - Tell Congress no more games

Crowley Political Report gave you Rick Perry's "President Zero" ad in an earlier report, now we have the new Democratic National Committee ad promoting President Obama's "American Jobs Act."

The ad urges voters to tell Congress,  "no more games, pass the plan."

Which ad will resonate most with voters? That decision is yours dear reader.

Here's the DNC ad:

 

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It's getting very cloudy for Obama in the Sunshine State

If President Obama loses Florida in 2012, his presidency will be over.  A new Quinnipiac Poll is echoing what many Sunshine State Democrats are saying privately - Obama is losing his Florida support.

One Florida Democratic leader told Crowley Political Report that he has never been this discouraged. A party fundraiser grits his teeth and warns that Obama better start spending some quality time in Florida. Out of loyality, they did not want to named complaining about the president.

Republicans are almost giddy. As they flock to Orlando for Presidency 5 and the CPAC gathering, the party faithful are convinced that Obama is a one-term president. For Republicans the biggest quandry is which candidate they want to see in the White House.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made an impressive showing with a group of about 30 party leaders and elected officials in West Palm Beach. Palm Beach County chairman Sid Dinerstein, who insists he is remaining neutral, was clearly charmed by Perry.

"I like what he has to say and he really listens," said Dinerstein.

The only dark moment came when Perry's goons, otherwise known as Texas Rangers, shut down the Kravis Center property to the media. The Kravis center has hosted scores of national political figures and the shut down was unprecedented.

One Ranger threatened to have a television reporter handcuffed if he tried to go the normal media staging area.  It was an unnecessary bullying tactic since Perry was using a back interest to enter the event site and was nowhere near the media. In fact, all Perry's folks accomplished was making it difficult for the TV stations to do interviews with guests who were praising the governor.

Brilliant advance work guys.

Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac Poll found that "Florida voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state."

No wonder Republicans are excited and Democrats are in a funk.

And here's the really bad news for the White House - "Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 – 41 percent." 

Here's a closer look at the Quinnipiac Poll (the results include the Florida U.S. Senate race):

Dole wins, another Texan fails and Pat Buchanan saves his surprise

Once again, Florida's GOP voters confronted a choice of an establishment Republican, a conservative Texan and a hard right extremist. But instead of Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, PresidencyIII delegates were choosing among Bob Dole, Phil Gramm and Pat Buchanan.

The November 1995, straw ballot was a bitter battle between Kansas Sen. Dole, Texas Sen. Gramm and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander.  Dole, who first ran for president in 1980, desperately needed to win Presidency III to shore up support for his campaign.

There were 3,325 voting delegates and the halls were intense as the candidates pushed hard to win votes. When the voting was over, it was Dole 33, Gramm 26 and Alexander 23.  

Dole's weak victory cast a long shadow over his campaign. Gramm and Alexander both pushed the idea that Dole could not win the nomination and that if he did he could defeat incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton.

Gramm tried to convince national party leaders that Dole's less than 40 percent showing was a terrible performance by a perceived frontrunner. Indeed it was. But there was little interest in either Gramm or Alexander when the campaign moved to the Iowa caucuses.

Dole won Iowa getting 26 percent of the vote. Buchanan, who thrived in the dark side of gutter politics, shocked the political world by coming in second with 23 percent. Alexander was third with 18 percent. Gramm was fifth (and done) with 9 percent to Steve Forbes 10 percent.

Crowley Political Report had one of its coldest nights in New Hampshire watching a Dole, torchlight parade of supporters. It was a very cold primary for Dole who was stunned by Buchanan who won New Hampshire with 27 percent of the vote to Dole's 26 percent. Alexander finished third with 22 percent.

It was Buchanan's last hurrah and Dole would go on to easily become the nominee. Dole would live up to the fears of Gramm and Alexander by being an awful general election candidate.

What will be the big surprise at Presidency 5, this weekend? We'll soon find out.

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