Crowley Political Report

Gingrich announces support from Florida Tea Party folks

Crowley Political Report just received this release from the Newt Gingrich campaign touting support from the Florida Tea Party Coaltion:

Lake County, FL – Newt 2012 FL announced the formal support of more than 30 Florida based Tea Party leaders who have pledged their support to Newt Gingrich for President of the United States.  The coalition of Florida Tea Party Leaders will help elect Newt and defeat Massachusetts Moderate Mitt Romney and then President Barack Obama. 

 “I’ve considered all the candidates, and Speaker Gingrich has the right combination of vision and experience to lead this country out of the economic misery created by government overreach that has been occurring for generations,” said Peter Lee, Founder and Director of the East Side Tea Party of Orlando. “It is clear to me and many others in the Tea Party movement that Newt is the Reagan Conservative that America needs – not a Massachusetts Moderate.”

 “I stand with Newt because I know he will stand up to the establishment and insist on fiscal reforms. Obama and his failed policies have met their match. With the Speaker's leadership, and engaged citizens, we can restore prosperity to America,” concluded Patricia Sullivan, Patriot Army Founder.

Romney campaigns in Florida will Tea Party support him?

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will attend a rally in West Palm Beach today at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.

It is an interesting location because in many ways the Convention Center is a failed government project. Little used, heavily dependent on tax dollars and seeking salvation by offering millions to anyone who will build a convention hotel nearby, the center has become a symbol of government befuddlement.

Romney's rally is scheduled from noon to 1:30 p.m.  After mingling with the folks, Romney will drive over the bridge to Palm Beach for a fundraiser at the home of Steve Ross, owner of the Miami Dolphins.

Romney's Florida effort has been formidable.  His campaign is making a determined effort to win this state and he has the money and resources to do it.

The biggest question for Romney may be who turns out for the Jan. 31, Florida primary. Will the vote be dominated by Tea Party supporters? Will Ron Paul Republicans show up? Will moderate Republicans, those most comfortable with Romney, vote? 

If 2012 is a replay of 2010, it could make things a bit more difficult for Romney. Florida's Tea Party voters were unforgiving in 2010, and if a candidate fails to meet the stringent - some might say strident - hard-core conservative demands of these voters, they go elsewhere.

Everything appears to be working in Romney's favor. His campaign has all the money and heavy machinery and his rivals are pinching pennies.

Restore Our Future, the Romney supporting Super-PAC, is spending $3.4 million on advertising in Florida. Romney's campaign will spend millions more - there is already a Spanish-language ad airing on Hispanic television.

And voting here is already underway. More than 85,000 Republicans have already voted by mail. 

If Romney wins big in South Carolina, Florida's primary may turn into a coronation.

Newt Gingrich is his chief rival in South Carolina, but even he appears to be admitting that he may not have much of a future if the Palmetto State does not at least give him a very close second place finish.

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 Art by Patrick Crowley

 

Newt Gingrich wants revenge, Romney needs Florida, Santorum still a longshot

Newt is very ticked off. Big Texas Rick is gone. So is Michele.  And little Rick suddenly looks like a giant killer. Meanwhile, Mitt may have to depend on Florida to win the GOP nomination. Oh, and let's not forget Jon who is hoping to be one heckuva of surprise.

The fun now moves to New Hampshire, a state much different than Iowa. Then on to South Carolina, a state very different from the other 49.

Several of these candidates are likely to survive until Jan. 31 when the Florida Republicans will make the real decision.

Florida. Yup, the Sunshine State is where the action is. No matter what happens in New Hampshire and South Carolina - it is Florida that is going to decide who will be the Republican nominee for president.

The challenge for the remaining candidates is simple. Cash. Lots of cash. As Crowley Political Report has stated before - this is an expensive state. It will cost millions to run an effective campaign, buy the needed TV and radio ads, bother everyone with robocalls, and flood mailboxes with political junkmail.

Florida has more than 4 million registered Republicans. We have nearly as many Republicans in Florida as Iowa and New Hampshire have people (4.3 million).

So it ain't cheap to campaign here - and time is short.

Newt Gingrich, Tea Party and why Mitt Romney may lose Florida

Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest. 

In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.

That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.

But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich.  The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters."   Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.

Why?

Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.

Those folks are not going to vote for Romney.

 

Here's the Q Poll trendline:

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

                     Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 22  Aug 04

                     2011      2011       2011      2011

 

Perry                 4       5      28      13

Gingrich         35      17       7       4

Romney          22      21      22      23

Bachmann        4       4       5       6

Santorum          2       1       2       1

Paul                     8       3       6       9

Huntsman         2       1       2       1

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Adam Hasner new campaign video

Times are tough for Florida U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hasner. Just as it looked like he had a chance to edge out George LeMieux for the nomination, Congressman Connie Mack pops up and says he thinks he'd like to have the GOP nod.

Recent polls show Hasner at 2 percent. He is even behind former U.S. Army Col. Mike McCalister who has shown a singular lack of understanding about Florida politics.

LeMieux, who was appointed to the Senate by former Gov. Charlie Crist to finish the term of Mel Martinez, has struggled to win conservative Republicans and Tea Party voters who loathe Crist and will never forgive LeMieux for being his pal.

A Quinnipiac University poll last week of Florida GOP voters found 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

How solid are those numbers? We won't know until Mack actually starts campaigning and voters get  better look at him. 

Meanwhile, Hasner offered up this new campaign video today. One suggestion - don't let your candidate sit in back seat. Put him right up there in the front passenger seat so he doesn't look like he has a chauffeur.

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Did George LeMieux make a $150,000 mistake?

Marc Caputo of the Miami Herald took a moment to chat with Jim Greer, the deeply embarassed and criminally charged, former head of the Florida Republican Party about a little financial deal that was arranged for George LeMieux.

The conversation was not pretty.

First, let's all understand that Greer is cranky. He believes a bunch of folks, including LeMieux, threw him under the bus. So, it is not surprising that Greer may no longer be in the mood to defend the folks who cheerfully put him in charge of the party.

But some facts are not in dispute.

Herman Cain gets serious about Florida and yellow flowers

This morning, Crowley Political Report spent more than 30 minutes talking about Herman Cain with a Washington reporter from Reuters.

Cain has become a popular interview subject ever since his stunning victory in the Florida Republican Party's straw poll. Since then, Cain has led in some polls including last week's NBC/Marist poll. Cain's closest competitor has been Mitt Romney. 

Can Cain win Florida?

Yes.

But it is not going to be easy.

Florida GOP thanks Rick Perry for breakfast votes for Herman Cain

 Herman Cain whooped Rick Perry soundly in Florida Republican Party straw poll Saturday leaving one critical question - Does the Florida GOP still exist or is it now the Florida Tea Party?

Cain - the Godfather's pizza guy. Mr. 9-9-9.

He left Perry drowning in tomato sauce. Cain got 37 percent of the more than 2,500 votes cast. Perry got 15 percent. Romney, who decided not to participate in Presidency 5, got 14 percent.

The sad candidacy of the strident, anti-everything Rick Santorum got nearly 11 percent followed by his political twin, Ron Paul at a tad over 10 percent.

Poor Perry. His swaggering Texas image crumbles in every debate. The delegates may have been disappointed when Perry looked lost at Thursday's CPAC debate, but by golly he bought them breakfast.

Perry told them they were important. He said Florida was important. Shucks,  Presidency 5 was supposed to be a major jumping off point for the Perry campaign.

Is Perry doomed?

No.

Is Cain going to be the GOP nominee?

No.

Will the Sunday talk shows go on and on and on about this with dire warnings that Perry better get his act together? (Note: think Ames, Iowa and Michele Bachmann).

Yes.

Does anybody at this point really understand what is going on with Florida Republicans?

No.

Is the Florida Republican Party being taken over by the Tea Party?

Yes.

And who is the leader of the Florida Tea Party?

Gov. Rick Scott.

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Tea Party shows its ugly side during CNN debate

 
During last night's CNN/Tea Party debate in Tampa, Wolf Blitzer asked Ron Paul a hypothetical question that finally led to: What do you tell a guy who is sick, goes into a coma and doesn't have health insurance? Who pays for his coverage? "Are you saying society should just let him die?"

Some members of the Tea Party crowd shouted, "Yes."

Yes.

They booed Gov. Rick Perry for supporting in-state college tuition for illegal immigrants.

They booed Paul for saying that having U.S. troops in the Middle East contributes to resentments, terrorism and perhaps even 911.

Some Tea Party folks appear willing to dump Social Security.

But nothing was more heartless than the shouted "yes" to the idea of allowing someone to die just because they can't afford treatment.

Yes.

Crowley Political Report was not surprised. There is a hard, uncompromising edge to many members of the Tea Party that has little to do with reasonable disagreements about public policy.

What they are saying about Florida and the CNN, Tea Party debate

While Crowley Political Report and others have long noted Florida will be the key to victory in the Republican presidential primary and in next year's election, it is now becoming, heaven help us, conventional wisdom.

Washington Post, The Fix - For the next 12 days, Florida will stand at the center of the 2012 Republican race, playing host to two debates — one tonight and a second on Sept. 22 — as well as a straw poll that will help shape the presidential nomination fight.

...

The next week and a half will also serve as the precursor to the Sunshine State primary early next year — a contest that many people believe could decide the identity of the party’s nominee.

...

In conversations with a handful of unaligned strategists, however, there was broad agreement that if the race comes down to Romney and Perry — as almost everyone expects it to — Florida will likely be decisive.

Houston Chronicle - The Tea Party movement is officially welcomed into the Republican mainstream today as the first presidential debate sponsored by a Tea Party group takes place in Tampa, Fla.

...

In many ways, the Tea Party Express involvement in the debate works to Perry's benefit. He was an early supporter of the movement in 2009 and made headlines at an April 15, 2009, Tea Party event when he suggested that Texas could secede from the Union.

The Daily Beast - the candidate with the most at stake is the Tea Party queen herself, Michele Bachmann, who badly needs to capitalize on the sympathetic audience. The congresswoman’s luster has clearly faded since her Iowa straw-poll victory last month, and she was practically invisible in last week’s MSNBC-Politico debate

...

No single debate is as important as the storyline that emerges from it. Perry must show that he can stop the bleeding on a sensitive issue (Social Security). Romney, who scored few points by attacking Perry’s jobs record, needs to prove he is nimble enough to stay on offense. And Bachmann, after being relegated to the sidelines, has to get into the arena.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer -  I want potential voters out there to have a better appreciation of these candidates – their strengths and weaknesses. I want to make sure we can drill down on where they agree and where they differ. When the candidates dodge the questions, I will follow up and press. That’s what the voters want, and I’m looking forward to this opportunity.

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Mike McCalister, Communists, RINOS, Adam Hasner

Geoff Ross, who claims to have been Mike McCalister's volunteer campaign manager, offers a, shall we say, vigorous defense of McCalister's campaign to win the Republican nomination to be Florida's next U.S. Senator.

This missive was posted on the Volusia County for Col. Mike McCalister Facebook page.

Dear Patriots,

 In October 2010 Colonel Mike McCalister US Senate candidate asked me to help set up and run his US Senate campaign. He asked me to get things moving forward for him as we arm the front lines to defend our Republic from this weak inefficient Communist style, tax and spend leadership of the Obama Administration.

Let’s not forget the misinformed lost and confused RINO's (who are actually Dems in elephants clothing) who are also running around the Republican party creating chaos and supporting the Obama agenda.

 I worked unpaid as a volunteer Campaign Manager and we put together one hell of a team across the State of Florida. I am not the most politically correct person in the world so I did what I could and kept my mouth shut as best as I could.

Marco Rubio cannot lose in 2012

Crowley Political Report was asked to ponder the fate of Marco Rubio by a Time magazine reporter a few hours before Rubio gave a speech Tuesday night at the Reagan Library in California.

Lots of folks are pondering the future of Florida's hot new U.S. Senator.  And there are no shortage of Republicans who think Rubio should be running for president or, at the very least, that he should get the number-two slot on the national ticket.

2012 is going to be a very good year for Rubio and he doesn't have to do a thing.

The rollout of Rubio has been nothing short of brilliant. His first few months in the senate he said very little, apparently content to find his way around Washington and get a feel for how the senate operates.

Interestingly, the less Rubio said, the more others said for him. Rush Limbaugh gushed on air that Rubio should get in the presidential race.

By early summer, Rubio started making more appearances on national television, gave his first speech on the senate floor and repeatedly, but firmly, denied any interest in running for president or vice president.

Folks seem to be willing to take him at his word that he is not interested in being at the top of the 2012 ticket, but many Republicans still swoon at the idea of Rubio getting the number two slot.

Again, Rubio politely but firmly says he is not interested in vice president.

The fact is that the 40-year old Floridian will be one of top finalists for GOP nominee whomever he or she might be.

Rubio is charismatic, articulate, Hispanic, conservative, a Tea Party hero, and he represents a state with 29 electoral votes.

Yes, he will be a finalist. And if Rubio gets the call from the nominee he is going to be hard-pressed to turn down a shot at being the first Hispanic vice president.

Rubio would have nothing to lose. Assuming he made no major gaffes, even if the ticket lost, Rubio would not be blamed. He could simply return to his senate seat and perhaps emerge as a national GOP leader - not a bad place to be in 2016.

And if he is not chosen for the ticket - Rubio will still play an important role in the party's effort to close the gap with Hispanic voters.

Amazing considering that just 20 months ago, Rubio was considered a long shot to defeat former Gov. Charlie Crist.

Now, he could become one of the most influential voices in the 2012 presidential election.

Read the Time magazine story here.

Here is a video of Rubio's appearance in California:

 

Art by West Palm Beach artist Patrick Crowley.

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Should Charlie Crist endorse George LeMieux or Adam Hasner?

 
Consider the possibilities of Charlie Crist endorsement in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.

Sure, you could argue that an endorsement from the former Florida governor would be worthless. And there is little doubt that most Republicans want little to do with Crist - especially the Tea Party faction.

On the other hand, a Crist endorsement would be an interesting political ploy.

Imagine if Crist endorsed Adam Hasner. That would be a wonderful thing for George LeMieux who is being portrayed by Hasner as Crist's twin brother.

Tea Party says don't blame Tea Party for debt crisis

 
In another Dear Patriots email, the South Florida Tea Party says it "will not be a pawn for Republicans or Democrats."

"We are experiencing an epic level of failure of leadership on all levels and political parties. Fewer than 10 years ago, America was on track to have a budget surplus. Unfortunately, President George W. Bush ran up the deficit by more than $400 million per year, but President Obama managed to spend more than $1 trillion and called it “savings.”

Everett Wilkinson, leader of the South Florida Tea Party, goes on to write:

". . .Now, Washington, D.C., wants to blame the Tea Party for the debt crisis. Senator John McCain even derided us by calling us 'tea party hobbits' in debt ceiling fight. I remember the the famous line from the movie "Josey Wales. "Senator - Don't go pissing down my back and tell me it's raining." I am tired of the excuses. Do your job!" (emphasis is Wilkinson's not Crowley Political Report).

Wilkinson urges Tea Party members to go to DontPissOnMeMcCain.com where one will find several unflattering photos of the Arizona senator who dared to disagree with the Tea Party.

It is one thing for McCain to buck the Tea Party, but can other GOP members of the House and Senate do it without risking loosing their seats next year?

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Art by Chicago artist Brian J. Crowley

FreedomWorks making a profit off fear

FreedomWorks and FreedomWorks Foundation offers itself as watchdogs of the public purse. They are largely credited with helping the Tea Party find a national voice. The organization is led by former Congressman Dick Armey, Boyden Gray and Steve Forbes.

It appears to be a very profitable enterprise.

FreedomWorks also does a pretty good job of taking care of its own purse by charging hefty fees to speak out and campaign on issues.

Here's an example from a FreedomWorks "overview of tools and tactics."

If you are willing to pay from $15,000 to $75,000 "per D.C. or state capitol lobbying trip" FreedomWorks will work for you.

For $25,000 to $35,000, FreedomWorks will "engage an earned media campaign on a certain issue, depending on the intensity of the campaign and Chairman Armey's involvement.

Of course the price of freedom is not cheap. If you want Armey or another FreedomWorks principal to have "formal and informal meetings and phone calls" with top policy makers that ranges from $10,000 to $65,000 "for principal to principal outreach."

Need expert testimony from Armey - $15,000 to $35,000.

Would you like a two-page Capitol Comment or a 10 page Issue Analysis? That will cost you from $15,000 to $50,000.

None of this is unique to FreedomWorks. Other organizations on both sides have similar operations.

Which raises a serious question - is FreedomWorks stoking controversy because that is how they make money? After all, there's no cash when there's no outrage.

FreedomWorks claims 564,000 online activists. That's a lot of people to get fired up. And those folks don't get paid.

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Democrats try to make a few bucks off Allen West's tirade

Well that didn't take long. 

Crowley Political Report just received the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's new fundraising appeal using Republican Congressman Allen West's email outburst against DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz yesterday as a reason why folks should quickly send cash.

They are calling it the "emergency rapid response fund."

Emergency? Really?

Here's the DCCC message:

“You are the most vile, unprofessional, and despicable member of the US House of Representatives... you are not a Lady.”
- Republican Congressman Allen West in an e-mail to
Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Last night, Republican Rep. Allen West sent a disgraceful e-mail outburst to one of our most accomplished colleagues in the House, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, telling her to “shut the heck up” for daring to challenge the GOP plan to gut Medicare and Social Security to pay for tax cuts for billionaires.

I wish I could say I was surprised.

Unfortunately, this is exactly the sort of partisan tantrum we're used to from House Republicans as they push our economy to the brink of disaster while pandering to their Tea Party base.

We can't let this shameful display go unanswered.

Contribute $3 or more right now to help us defeat disgraceful Republicans like Allen West in 2012. My Democratic colleagues are so appalled that they’ve agreed to match all gifts today dollar-for-dollar up to our $100,000 goal.

This kind of appalling behavior is all too familiar from Congressman West, who has riled up his extremist right-wing base by attacking progressive women for “neutering American men,” calling supporters of President Obama, “a threat to the gene pool” and writing for a misogynist magazine that denigrated women with words I'd be ashamed to even repeat.

And now that he’s in Congress, West thinks he can attack a respected legislator like Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz with this kind of hate-filled screed.

Allen West has shown us his true colors, now let’s show him ours.

Contribute right now to help throw Allen West and his Tea Party colleagues out in 2012.

Let’s make sure Republicans don’t forget this moment.

Rep. Steve Israel
DCCC Chairman

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Michele Bachmann could win the Florida presidential primary

Michele Bachmann could be a huge pain for other Republican candidates in Florida's 2012 presidential primary.

Bachmann announced Monday night that she is a candidate. See her announcement video is below. In an emailed statement, Bachmann said:

"Our country needs a leader who understands the hardships that people across America have been facing over the past few years, and who will do what it takes to renew the American dream. We must become a strong and proud America again, and I see clearly a better path to a brighter future."

Look at the Florida U.S. Senate race,  featuring Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux, and you can get a clue about just how well Bachmann could do in the Sunshine State. The Florida senate candidates are pushing hard right, courting the Tea party by pandering to concerns about Agenda 21, Sharia law and other fear- issues.

But even without those issues, GOP conservatives and Florida Tea party activists will love Bachmann's unyielding stands on economic and social issues.

During last night's GOP debate in New Hampshire, Bachmann gave viewers a taste of her passionate views:

"Marriage is between a man and a woman."

"For children, the best possible way to raise children is to have a mother and father in their life."

"We need the mother of all repeals" of government regulations including getting rid of the Environmental Protection Agency.

If voter turnout is limited to the kinds of folks who feel as strongly as Bachmann does, there is a very good chance she could do very well - if not win - the Florida primary.

UPDATE - Debate ended a few moments ago - some quick thoughts on the other candidates:

Mitt Romney did well. No one layed a glove on him and he sounded experienced and sure of himself. Tim Pawlenty didn't have a single original thought and did nothing to stand out. Newt Gingrich seemed annoyed that he was forced to share a stage with Ron Paul and Herman Cain. Rick Santorum did his best to look like a good running mate.

Bachmann stood out and offered a stark contrast to Romney who remains the frontrunner. 

 

Rick Scott, Agenda 21 and the United Nations

You may not be concerned about Agenda 21 but Florida Gov. Rick Scott is not going to let it happen in the Sunshine State.

It is an odd but revealing tidbit about Scott, a Republican who still remains little known to most Floridians.

Crowley Political Report listened to an interview that Scott gave Matt Bruce host of the Sarasota radio program The Captain's America. Bruce's website describes the program as a "member of the American TEA Party Movement."

It was a fairly routine question and answer session between Scott and Bruce when Bruce asked this question:

A lot of people are concerned about this UN Agenda 21, sustainable development they don't understand it, lot of people don't even know what it is. We do have it in Sarasota County with what is called the 2050 plan, it is spotty to say the least around Florida. What do you know about this sir?

Without missing a beat, Scott replied:

I know it's not good for Florida and so I'm going to make sure we're not giving someone else the power to figure out our destiny. I'm focused on our rights as an individual state. I don't believe the federal government should be telling us what to do and clearly the UN should not be dictating how we build our state.

Bruce ended the segment with:

Oh yeah, this is what people don't understand this is the UN telling us what to do with our property and with our own lands.

Okay, Crowley Political Report was compelled to do a bit of research to find out  - what in the world is Agenda 21?

Did Donald Trump avoid the draft?

Pursing his lips, leaning into his interviewer, Donald Trump exudes buffoonish power as he warns the world that he if is president of the United States oil prices will drop, labor markets will buckle to his will and America will strike fear in the hearts of anyone who dares defy him.

Trump spends a lot of time pretending that he would be the greatest commander-in-chief in American history.

Or as he would say - he would be "amazing."

What may really be amazing about the militaristic Donald Trump is that he may be a draft dodger.

Consider this from A&E Biography profile of Trump:

Donald Trump was an energetic, assertive child, and his parents sent him to the New York Military Academy at age 13, hoping the discipline of the school would channel his energy in a positive manner.

Trump did well at the academy, both socially and academically, rising to be a star athlete and student leader by the time he graduated in 1964.

He entered Fordham University and then transferred to the Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania from which he graduated in 1968 with a degree in economics.

Donald Trump joins Allen West at Tea Party rally in Boca Raton

 
 This is one odd presidential election cycle. It is hard to believe that Donald Trump has become a darling of the Tea Party.

There is nothing in Trump's background that would suggest he should be this popular with a family values, economically thrifty, Tea Party supporter.

Trump is on wife number three. His gaudy lifestyle certainly does not suggest thrift, and when he speaks about issues it is clear that it has been many years since he read a book.

And there could be no more unlikely political pairing than Donald Trump and Allen West?

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hasner is also attending the event.