Crowley Political Report

Will Newt Gingrich disappoint Palm Beach GOP?

Maybe it's a  Sid Dinerstein curse. Poor Sid had lined up Herman Cain to be his keynote speaker for the Jan. 28, Palm Beach County Lincoln Day Dinner.

Dinerstein had every reason to be thrilled. Cain was on a roll and the party could count on Cain bringing in lots of folks willing to pay $195 to hear him speak.

Cain implodes.

Dinerstein needs a new speaker. Now this shouldn't be hard. The dinner is just three days before the Florida presidential primary. 

Not bad timing.

Dinerstein reeled in New Gingrich. 

Looked great. Gingrich was hot. His poll numbers climbing.

Uh oh.

Gingrich was slaughtered in Iowa and now some wonder if he will still be a candidate by the time Florida's primary rolls around.

Crowley Political Report suspects Gingrich will still draw a crowd no matter what happens to his campaign. 

But if Gingrich is out of the race, well, it just won't be the same for Sid.

Is that Santorum on the phone?

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Rick Perry decides to stick it out in South Carolina and Florida

BREAKING NEWS - Multiple news sources are saying that Rick Perry has decided to stay in the race for Republican presidential nomination.

Crowley Political Report and a gazillion other twitter followers of Perry received this tweet just a few minutes ago: @GovernorPerry: And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State...Here we come South Carolina!!!

This has caused the Twitter world to go wild.

At this point the talk is that Perry will participate in the upcoming New Hampshire debates but focus his energy on South Carolina and Florida.

Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann quit and Ron Paul remains persistant. 

What will it mean with Perry staying in the race? The hunch here - Perry believes he will have the money to compete in Florida and steal the nomination from Mitt Romney. And where does this leave Rick Santorum?

Will Rick Perry's anti-gay, pro-Christian ad work in Florida?

The odds of Texas Gov. Rick Perry making it to the Florida presidential primary seem long but it's clear he is willing to bash gays if that will help him get the Sunshine State.

In this ad, Perry criticizes gays in the military, says Christains aren't being allowed to celebrate Christmas and that President Obama is conducting a war on religion.

Perry says, "there is something wrong when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't openly celebrate Christmas?"

Huh?

The best thing about the ad is that Perry manages to complete a sentence with losing his way. Of course, we don't know how many takes it required.

The ad is appearing in Iowa in what is clearly Perry's desperate attempt to appeal to the worst in Iowa's GOP voters.

If he makes it to Florida, we suspect some GOP voters here will be unhappy with this ad. Take a look:

 

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Newt Gingrich, Tea Party and why Mitt Romney may lose Florida

Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest. 

In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.

That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.

But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich.  The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters."   Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.

Why?

Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.

Those folks are not going to vote for Romney.

 

Here's the Q Poll trendline:

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

                     Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 22  Aug 04

                     2011      2011       2011      2011

 

Perry                 4       5      28      13

Gingrich         35      17       7       4

Romney          22      21      22      23

Bachmann        4       4       5       6

Santorum          2       1       2       1

Paul                     8       3       6       9

Huntsman         2       1       2       1

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Can Florida Republicans save Herman Cain?

A little more than six weeks ago, Florida Republicans gave Herman Cain a gift.  Giving Cain 37 percent of the vote in a straw ballot at Presidency 5 in September, GOP convention delegates shoved Cain to the front of the presidential campaign pack.

Cain more than doubled the vote of second and third place finishers Rick Perry (15 percent) and Mitt Romney (14 percent).

On Wednesday, Cain returns to Florida a different candidate. He will make stops in Miami, Coral Springs and West Palm Beach at time when some are questioning whether Cain's race for the GOP nomination is now doomed.

He has been haunted by multiple accusations of sexual harassment. He has repeatedly and firmly called his accusers liars. Cain's wife, Gloria, appeared on FOX News Monday night with Greta Van Susteren to defend her husband.

But while she was defending him, Cain got himself into trouble over Libya.

Yes, Libya.  

Cain looked confused and unsure about the issue. Here's how CBS reported the incident. Crowley Political Report has seen the full interview and the CBS clip is a fair representation.

 

A bit of good news today for Cain came from a Bloomberg News poll of likely Iowa caucus voters - Cain is at 20 percent, Ron Paul, 19 percent, Mitt Romney, 18 percent and Newt Gingrich, 17 percent.

Cain watchers will be looking closely at how he performs in Florida on Wednesday.  How big will the crowds be? Do they care about the sexual harassment questions? Do Florida Republicans think Cain can win? 

If you want to see Cain in action, you have three opportunities (events are free and open to the public):

11:45 AM – Versailles Restaurant, 3555 Southwest 8th Street, Miami

1:45 PM - Wings Plus, 9880 West Sample Road, Coral Springs

5:00 PM - Palm Beach County Convention Center, 650 Okeechobee Boulevard, West Palm Beach

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Florida voters trust Obama and Romney

A new Quinnipiac Unviersity poll released today suggests that Florida voters are evenly divided between Republican Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama.  While these results have little meaning at this point in the 2012 election, there are some interesting tidbits in the poll.

First, the most worrisome number for Obama is 83 percent.

That is the percentage of Florida voters who said they are either "very dissatisfied" (52 percent), or "somewhat dissatisfied" (23 percent), when asked what they think about "the way things are going in the nation today."

The poll fails to explore that question further, so we don't know whether these voters are dissatisfied with Obama, Congress, Wall Street, or all of the above.

Still, no sitting president wants to enter an election year with those kinds of numbers. Dissatisfied voters also are persuadeable voters and that's a good sign for Republicans.

The number one issue for Florida voters remains the economy (55 percent), followed by the federal deficit (13 percent), and health care (11 percent). All other issues were in signal digits.

With few signs of a significantly improving economy between now and November 2012, the dissatisfaction numbers and top issues concerns are not likely to change. This should worry the White House which needs Florida's 29 electoral votes to win a second term.

Good news for Obama - Florida voters believe he is "honest and trustworthy" (52 percent).  But Mitt Romney did as well as Obama with 51 percent.  Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich hover between 37 percent and 40 percent.

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CNN TIME Florida poll Romney 30, Cain 18, Perry 9

Texas Gov. Rick Perry seems to have little traction with Florida Republicans while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney clings to a commanding lead with Herman Cain following in second place. 

Well maybe.

The sample of 401 registered GOP voters is a tad small. The margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent which is a tad large.

Tadding aside, the important thing is that at this stage of a campaign it's all about headlines and perceptions. 

Here's what the poll really tells us - despite some grumbling, Florida's GOP voters are comfortable with Romney.  Here's what the poll doesn't tell us - who is going to show up to vote?

If you watch the dance in teh 2012 Florida's U.S. Senate race, plus last year's race for governor and U.S. Senate, it is pretty clear that the most likely voters in the January 31 primary will be Tea Party voters and other who feel similarly.

Not good for Romney.

He is still a tough sell to the Tea Party - a group known to be willing to cut a candidate off at the knees for the slightest perceived transgression.

Could Rick Perry take his place? Maybe. But at 9 percent in this poll - tied with Newt Gingrich - it's pretty clear that Florida Republicans remain unimpressed. 

The wild card remains Cain. He's popular with Tea Party and may finally be putting together the money and Florida organization he needs to have a shot.

We're less than 100 days away from the Jan. 31 primary - and the candidates still have to deal with Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Enjoy the poll - but don't take it too seriously.

Consider this, 50 percent of those surveyed said they might change their mind.

The results: Romney 30%   Cain 18%    Gingrich 9%    Perry 9%    Paul 6%    Bachmann 4%    Huntsman 1%    Santorum 1%    No opinion 14%

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Herman Cain gets serious about Florida and yellow flowers

This morning, Crowley Political Report spent more than 30 minutes talking about Herman Cain with a Washington reporter from Reuters.

Cain has become a popular interview subject ever since his stunning victory in the Florida Republican Party's straw poll. Since then, Cain has led in some polls including last week's NBC/Marist poll. Cain's closest competitor has been Mitt Romney. 

Can Cain win Florida?

Yes.

But it is not going to be easy.

Times say Romney plan gives free health care to illegal immigrants

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has been slammed repeatedly by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for supporting a Texas plan that allows the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college.

Now, questions are being asked Romney's Massachusett's healthcare plan and how it applies to illegal immigrants.

Noam Levey of  The Los Angeles Times writes:

The Massachusetts healthcare law that then-Gov. Mitt Romney signed in 2006 includes a program known as the Health Safety Net, which allows undocumented immigrants to get needed medical care along with others who lack insurance.

Uninsured, poor immigrants can walk into a health clinic or hospital in the state and get publicly subsidized care at virtually no cost to them, regardless of their immigration status.

. . .

The Massachusetts program, which cost more than $400 million last year, paid for 1.1 million hospital and clinic visits. It's unclear how many undocumented patients benefited because the state does not record that data.

The Romney campaign referred questions to Tim Murphy, who served as Romney's state health and human services secretary. Murphy said the governor never intended the Health Safety Net to serve undocumented immigrants.

"Our view when we signed the law was that all benefits would be for people in the commonwealth who were here legally," Murphy said, noting that the regulations implementing the program were written after Romney left office in 2007.

 Read the entire Los Angeles Times story here.

Perry's campaign wasted no time pouncing:

“Governor Romney’s government-mandated health care plan provided free care for illegal immigrants in Massachusetts, establishing just the kind of illegal immigration magnet Governor Romney claims to oppose,” said Perry spokesman Mark Miner.

“Program rules established by the Romney Administration in 2004 clearly state that citizenship is not required for free health care and subsidies and health centers cannot consider citizenship before rendering that free care.”

What's the truth?

It may not be clear at this point except for this - illegal immigrants will continue to be political fodder in the GOP primary and Hispanic voters in Florida and elsewhere may soon begin to wonder whether the issue is just about illegals.

 

Herman Cain struggles, Perry fights back and AFSCME takes on Allen West

Not that was a great Republican debate. And for those dummies out there who think the squabbling was a CNN plot - please turn in your voter card.

Crowley Political Report was among the first to note that Herman Cain's 9 9 9  plan would result in a 15 percent sales tax in Florida - the very state that propelled Cain to the top of the heap by giving him a stunning victory in the Presidency 5 straw ballot.

Cain did a decent job fighting back during the debate but for the first 20 minutes he was pounded by his rivals for the GOP nomination. 

Early prediction - the sales tax aspect is going to hurt Cain. He can't explain it in a 30-second ad but his opponents can scare the hell out of voters with it in less than 30 seconds.

Rick Perry showed that he in fact does have a pulse. And watching him and Mitt Romney left the clear impression that they will not be running mates.  Perry was stronger than in previous debates but he still stepped on his lines and at times seemed out of it.

Romney started taking on the petulant tone of someone who thought the nomination would be easier this time.  When he asked Anderson Cooper to step in and help stop Perry from interrupting, Romney looked like the kid running to his daddy.

Michelle Bachmann proved once again that she is willing to say any ole outrageous thing just to get attention.

And while Rick Santorum had his best night, he still reminds us why Pennsylvania voters tossed him out of office.

Oh, and Ron Paul was there still collecting his paycheck from that evil federal government that has supported him since 1976.  We hear it's now a family business. Gosh, wonder when that will appear in an ad.

Florida GOP Congressman Allen West did not attend the debate but Florida viewers may have been surprised to see this ad during a the festivities:

 

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Mitt Romney, Florida's Mormon U.S. Senator and other facts about Mormons

Crowley Political Report is packing a lot of infomation about Florida Mormons and Mitt Romney in today's edition of CPR.  But first, let's start with this observaton, Rick Perry's little friend, Robert Jeffress, is a moron.

The pastor of the Dallas First Baptist Church is clearly a religous bigot. He is fond of accusing other religions of being cults - and not just Mormons.

Jeffress also believes that John F. Kennedy belonged to a cult - Catholicism.

Crowley Political Report tracked down this little sermon Jeffress gave about Catholicsim which he believes is a religion of Satan.  This will not help Perry with Catholic voters. An excerpt fron his sermon about Catholics:

"This is the Babylonian mystery religion that spread like a cult throughout the entire world. . ."

...

"You say, pastor how can you say such a thing that is such an indictment of the Catholic Church, after all, the Catholic Church talks about God and the Bible and Jesus and the blood of Christ and salvation. Isn't that the genius of Satan?

"You know if you want to counterfeit a dollar bill you don't do it with purple paper and red ink. You're not going to full anybody with that. If you want to counterfeit money you make it look as closely related to the real thing as possible.

"And that's what satan does with counterfeit religion. He uses, he steals, he appropriates all of the symbols of true biblical Christianity and he changes it just enough in order to cause people to miss eternal life."

Hear it for yourself here.

In 2007, Romney was shouted down during a visit to The Villages, a mandatory Florida campaign stop for Republcian candidates, by an angry man who accused him of pretending to be a Christian. The man refused to accept the idea that a Mormon could be a Christian.

That outburst, led to the following 2007 story about Florida Mormons - a story that is even more important today as Romney leads in most polls.

By Brian E. Crowley - Palm Beach Post Politcal Editor

There are always questions.

Some are merely curious: Why do Mormons avoid coffee and tea? Shun tobacco?

Others are more pointed: Are you polygamists? Are you Christians? Are you a cult?

None of this is new to members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. But what is new is the presidential campaign of Republican former Massachusetts governor and devout Mormon.

Romney has made Florida a key state in his bid to win the GOP nomination, bringing with him a spotlight on his religion and the 125,000 Mormons who live and worship in the Sunshine State.

Members, including more than 15,000 in South Florida, also must deal with this sobering fact: A USA Today/Gallup poll in February found that 24 percent of those asked said they would not vote for a well-qualified Mormon to be president. Among Republicans the number was 30 percent.

"You, sir, are a pretender. You do not know the Lord. You are a Mormon," a man yelled at Romney during a campaign stop last month at The Villages, a retirement community near Ocala.

The man was shouted down by the crowd of more than 800, but he offered a view of the church that is not uncommon. The Southern Baptist Convention describes Latter-day Saints as a cult.

Jacob Weisberg, editor of the online magazine Slate, wrote in December that the religion is based on "a transparent and recent fraud," which is why he would not vote for Romney.

Florida GOP thanks Rick Perry for breakfast votes for Herman Cain

 Herman Cain whooped Rick Perry soundly in Florida Republican Party straw poll Saturday leaving one critical question - Does the Florida GOP still exist or is it now the Florida Tea Party?

Cain - the Godfather's pizza guy. Mr. 9-9-9.

He left Perry drowning in tomato sauce. Cain got 37 percent of the more than 2,500 votes cast. Perry got 15 percent. Romney, who decided not to participate in Presidency 5, got 14 percent.

The sad candidacy of the strident, anti-everything Rick Santorum got nearly 11 percent followed by his political twin, Ron Paul at a tad over 10 percent.

Poor Perry. His swaggering Texas image crumbles in every debate. The delegates may have been disappointed when Perry looked lost at Thursday's CPAC debate, but by golly he bought them breakfast.

Perry told them they were important. He said Florida was important. Shucks,  Presidency 5 was supposed to be a major jumping off point for the Perry campaign.

Is Perry doomed?

No.

Is Cain going to be the GOP nominee?

No.

Will the Sunday talk shows go on and on and on about this with dire warnings that Perry better get his act together? (Note: think Ames, Iowa and Michele Bachmann).

Yes.

Does anybody at this point really understand what is going on with Florida Republicans?

No.

Is the Florida Republican Party being taken over by the Tea Party?

Yes.

And who is the leader of the Florida Tea Party?

Gov. Rick Scott.

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Democrats - Tell Congress no more games

Crowley Political Report gave you Rick Perry's "President Zero" ad in an earlier report, now we have the new Democratic National Committee ad promoting President Obama's "American Jobs Act."

The ad urges voters to tell Congress,  "no more games, pass the plan."

Which ad will resonate most with voters? That decision is yours dear reader.

Here's the DNC ad:

 

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It's getting very cloudy for Obama in the Sunshine State

If President Obama loses Florida in 2012, his presidency will be over.  A new Quinnipiac Poll is echoing what many Sunshine State Democrats are saying privately - Obama is losing his Florida support.

One Florida Democratic leader told Crowley Political Report that he has never been this discouraged. A party fundraiser grits his teeth and warns that Obama better start spending some quality time in Florida. Out of loyality, they did not want to named complaining about the president.

Republicans are almost giddy. As they flock to Orlando for Presidency 5 and the CPAC gathering, the party faithful are convinced that Obama is a one-term president. For Republicans the biggest quandry is which candidate they want to see in the White House.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made an impressive showing with a group of about 30 party leaders and elected officials in West Palm Beach. Palm Beach County chairman Sid Dinerstein, who insists he is remaining neutral, was clearly charmed by Perry.

"I like what he has to say and he really listens," said Dinerstein.

The only dark moment came when Perry's goons, otherwise known as Texas Rangers, shut down the Kravis Center property to the media. The Kravis center has hosted scores of national political figures and the shut down was unprecedented.

One Ranger threatened to have a television reporter handcuffed if he tried to go the normal media staging area.  It was an unnecessary bullying tactic since Perry was using a back interest to enter the event site and was nowhere near the media. In fact, all Perry's folks accomplished was making it difficult for the TV stations to do interviews with guests who were praising the governor.

Brilliant advance work guys.

Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac Poll found that "Florida voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state."

No wonder Republicans are excited and Democrats are in a funk.

And here's the really bad news for the White House - "Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 – 41 percent." 

Here's a closer look at the Quinnipiac Poll (the results include the Florida U.S. Senate race):

Dole wins, another Texan fails and Pat Buchanan saves his surprise

Once again, Florida's GOP voters confronted a choice of an establishment Republican, a conservative Texan and a hard right extremist. But instead of Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, PresidencyIII delegates were choosing among Bob Dole, Phil Gramm and Pat Buchanan.

The November 1995, straw ballot was a bitter battle between Kansas Sen. Dole, Texas Sen. Gramm and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander.  Dole, who first ran for president in 1980, desperately needed to win Presidency III to shore up support for his campaign.

There were 3,325 voting delegates and the halls were intense as the candidates pushed hard to win votes. When the voting was over, it was Dole 33, Gramm 26 and Alexander 23.  

Dole's weak victory cast a long shadow over his campaign. Gramm and Alexander both pushed the idea that Dole could not win the nomination and that if he did he could defeat incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton.

Gramm tried to convince national party leaders that Dole's less than 40 percent showing was a terrible performance by a perceived frontrunner. Indeed it was. But there was little interest in either Gramm or Alexander when the campaign moved to the Iowa caucuses.

Dole won Iowa getting 26 percent of the vote. Buchanan, who thrived in the dark side of gutter politics, shocked the political world by coming in second with 23 percent. Alexander was third with 18 percent. Gramm was fifth (and done) with 9 percent to Steve Forbes 10 percent.

Crowley Political Report had one of its coldest nights in New Hampshire watching a Dole, torchlight parade of supporters. It was a very cold primary for Dole who was stunned by Buchanan who won New Hampshire with 27 percent of the vote to Dole's 26 percent. Alexander finished third with 22 percent.

It was Buchanan's last hurrah and Dole would go on to easily become the nominee. Dole would live up to the fears of Gramm and Alexander by being an awful general election candidate.

What will be the big surprise at Presidency 5, this weekend? We'll soon find out.

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New Perry ad calls Obama "President Zero"

Just in time for Florida's Presidency 5, Texas Gov. Rick Perry offers up a new, nearly 2 minute web ad, that starts out with doom and gloom and ends with Perry riding to the rescue.

In what may well become a Republican call-to-action - the ad dubs Barack Obama as "President Zero."

It is a powerful campaign slogan that the ad justifies with images of empty offices, empty businesses, empty streets and stormy skies. The ad opens with Obama talking about the economy and as the images flash by, Obama is heard saying, "We are headed in the right direction."

Then newscasters and campaign voiceovers are heard talking about "zero jobs" in August and,  "Not a single job being added." "No jobs created, net zero."

And then - you ready - we see a quick image of the legs of horse. Yup. Can't be true Texan if you ain't got a horse. You can't see the rider but one can assume it is Perry riding to the rescue.

Frankly, the ad should have stopped at the end of the Obama portion with a quick Rick Perry for President image. Instead, the ad switches to more over-the-top images that gives one a feel that Rocky XXXIIIV is about to air.

 Here's the ad. Does the message work for you?

 

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Politico: Wexler says Israel "would pay in blood" under Rick Perry policy

Former Florida Democratic Congressman Robert Wexler - never known for being shy - lashed out at Texas Gov. Rick Perry in an interview with Politico.

From Politico:

(Wexler)  told POLITICO today that while Hamas would "cheer" Governor Rick Perry's threats to defund the Palestinian Authority, Israelis would "pay in blood."

"The policies that Governor Perry is advocating are so far out of the mainstream, and would result in so much damage to the state of Israel, that for him Israel must be an ideology or a religious obsession, without a care about the safety and security of the seven million israelis who actually live there and the brave soldiers of the IDF," he said. Wexler said he was concerned, particularly, about Republican threats to defund the Palestinian Authority, and the resulting prospect that the PA's security forces could collapse.

"If we actually did what Governor Perry advocates, Hamas would benefit greatly and the Israeli people would pay in blood, as would the Palestinian people," he said. Read more from Politico here.

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Perry says Florida critical names leadership team

This just in to Crowley Political Report from the Rick Perry campaign:

AUSTIN – Texas Gov. Rick Perry today announced his leadership team for Presidency 5 (P5), with Speaker Dean Cannon serving as chairman. Gov. Perry will participate in Florida P5 this week, including the P5 debate, CPAC and straw poll in Orlando, Fla.

“Florida is critical to the presidential nomination process, so I look forward to bringing my pro-jobs, conservative message to Florida and the Presidency 5 events,” Gov. Perry said. “Floridians care about jobs, fiscal responsibility and ending Obamacare and other federal excesses. I am pleased to have the opportunity to share my record and vision for job creation and fiscal conservatism with the voters of the Sunshine State.”

“Gov. Perry knows that the path to the nomination and eventually the White House goes through Florida,” said Speaker Cannon. “He also knows how critical it is for Florida’s grassroots leaders to get a chance to know the candidates early, which is why he is focused on this state and participating in Presidency 5.”

Tea Party shows its ugly side during CNN debate

 
During last night's CNN/Tea Party debate in Tampa, Wolf Blitzer asked Ron Paul a hypothetical question that finally led to: What do you tell a guy who is sick, goes into a coma and doesn't have health insurance? Who pays for his coverage? "Are you saying society should just let him die?"

Some members of the Tea Party crowd shouted, "Yes."

Yes.

They booed Gov. Rick Perry for supporting in-state college tuition for illegal immigrants.

They booed Paul for saying that having U.S. troops in the Middle East contributes to resentments, terrorism and perhaps even 911.

Some Tea Party folks appear willing to dump Social Security.

But nothing was more heartless than the shouted "yes" to the idea of allowing someone to die just because they can't afford treatment.

Yes.

Crowley Political Report was not surprised. There is a hard, uncompromising edge to many members of the Tea Party that has little to do with reasonable disagreements about public policy.

What they are saying about Florida and the CNN, Tea Party debate

While Crowley Political Report and others have long noted Florida will be the key to victory in the Republican presidential primary and in next year's election, it is now becoming, heaven help us, conventional wisdom.

Washington Post, The Fix - For the next 12 days, Florida will stand at the center of the 2012 Republican race, playing host to two debates — one tonight and a second on Sept. 22 — as well as a straw poll that will help shape the presidential nomination fight.

...

The next week and a half will also serve as the precursor to the Sunshine State primary early next year — a contest that many people believe could decide the identity of the party’s nominee.

...

In conversations with a handful of unaligned strategists, however, there was broad agreement that if the race comes down to Romney and Perry — as almost everyone expects it to — Florida will likely be decisive.

Houston Chronicle - The Tea Party movement is officially welcomed into the Republican mainstream today as the first presidential debate sponsored by a Tea Party group takes place in Tampa, Fla.

...

In many ways, the Tea Party Express involvement in the debate works to Perry's benefit. He was an early supporter of the movement in 2009 and made headlines at an April 15, 2009, Tea Party event when he suggested that Texas could secede from the Union.

The Daily Beast - the candidate with the most at stake is the Tea Party queen herself, Michele Bachmann, who badly needs to capitalize on the sympathetic audience. The congresswoman’s luster has clearly faded since her Iowa straw-poll victory last month, and she was practically invisible in last week’s MSNBC-Politico debate

...

No single debate is as important as the storyline that emerges from it. Perry must show that he can stop the bleeding on a sensitive issue (Social Security). Romney, who scored few points by attacking Perry’s jobs record, needs to prove he is nimble enough to stay on offense. And Bachmann, after being relegated to the sidelines, has to get into the arena.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer -  I want potential voters out there to have a better appreciation of these candidates – their strengths and weaknesses. I want to make sure we can drill down on where they agree and where they differ. When the candidates dodge the questions, I will follow up and press. That’s what the voters want, and I’m looking forward to this opportunity.

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