Crowley Political Report

Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Is Rick Scott a one-term governor

Another poll, another bad day for Florida Gov. Rick Scott. A new Quinnipiac University poll has Scott trailing former Gov. Charlie Crist by 16 points.

Even worse is this tidbit from the Q-poll: 

Florida voters say 50 – 40 percent that Crist’s switch from Republican to independent and now to Democrat is a positive thing that shows he is a pragmatist, rather than a negative thing that shows he lacks core beliefs.  

And then there is this:

Scott’s potential vulnerability is evidenced by the fact that only 32 percent of voters say he deserves a second term in office, including just 28 percent of independent voters.  His job approval rating is a negative 36 – 49 percent, compared to his negative 36 – 45 percent disapproval in a December 19 survey. . .

There is a touch of good news for Scott. The poll suggests he should win the GOP primary:

Scott’s support among Republicans appears pretty solid, although he has a lot of fences to mend with independent voters and he has virtually no crossover appeal to Democrats.

The poll suggests that if Republican Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam wants to challenge Scott in the GOP primary Putnam would have a difficult time. 

Here's how the poll was done:

From March 13 – 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.  The survey includes 353 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

 

 

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Jennifer Carroll explains her resignation as Florida lieutenant governor

From former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll

My decision yesterday to resign as Lieutenant Governor represents my unwavering commitment to the great state of Florida. I simply refuse to allow the allegations facing a former client of my public relations firm to undermine the important work of the Governor and his administration. It was a difficult decision, but one that I know is right for Florida, my family and me.

As has been widely reported in the press, prior to my election as Lt. Governor, a company I co-owned, 3 N.&J.C. Corporation, provided consulting services for Allied Veterans of the World, Inc. Having learned that Allied Veterans is now the subject of an investigation by federal and state agencies, I have and will continue to fully cooperate with any investigation. Although I do not believe I or my company are targets of the investigation, I could not allow my company's former affiliation with Allied Veterans to distract from the administration's important work for the families of Florida.

Through my years of public service, I have always tried to work for the betterment of my state and my nation. The jobs I was able to bring to Florida in the space, aerospace and the military support industries provided job opportunities for many displaced workers. I am particularly proud of our successful efforts over the last two years to bring aircraft manufacturing for the Light Air Support program to Jacksonville.

Cory Booker to attend pink slip Rick Scott breakfast

Florida Gov. Rick Scott gave his re-election, oops, state-of-the-State speech today. Scott wisely focused on topics that he believes will help him win a second term - teacher payraises, falling in love with Obamacare, and jobs.

His take-away campaign phrase - "It's working." 

Very nice. Fits perfectly on a bumper sticker.

While Scott was speaking, the Palm Beach County Democratic Party announced that Newark, N.J., Mayor Cory Booker will be the guest speaker at a "Pink Slip Rick Breakfast."

Details are below.

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Dinner with Marco Rubio just $10,000 at the home of Pepe Fanjul

Florida's favorite Republican U.S. Senator - Marco Rubio - is going to Palm Beach on March 8 to attend a $10,000 per person dinner for the Rubio Victory Committee.

This tidbit comes from the Palm Beach Daily News, affectionately known as The Shiny Sheet.

"The evening begins with a 6 p.m. reception at the home of Jim and Dot Patterson. The cost is $1,000 per person or $2,500 for a photo op at the reception. A 7:30 p.m. dinner will follow at the home of J. Pepe and Emilia Fanjul at a cost of $10,000 per person.

"The Pattersons, the Fanjuls, and Wilbur and Hilary Ross are the main sponsors of the event. The Rubio Victory Committee is a joint fundraising committee composed of Marco Rubio for Senate and Reclaim America PAC."

"Other members of the host committee are: Larry and Suzanne DeGeorge, Pepe and Lourdes Fanjul Jr., Cyrus and Mitzi Freidheim, Stanley and Gay Gaines, Marc Goldman, Ambassador Al and Dawn Hoffman, Jerry and Darlene Jordan, Rodger and Hillary Krouse, Marc Leder, George and Frayda Lindemann, Dan Mangru, Ken Meares, Ambassador Mary Ourisman, Michael Peragine, John Rangos Sr., David Reinke, Chris Ruddy, and Dwight and Martha Schar."

Read more about event here.

Chris Christie dropping by Palm Beach to pick up a few bucks

Poor Chris Christie. After failing to pass the American Conservative Union's purity test (is this a bit like Florida's new drug test for welfare recipients?), the New Jersey governor is going to Palm Beach to see if he still has any friends.

Never mind that the folks in New Jersey think their governor is swell. In fact, just about everybody in New Jersey likes Christie - one poll has him at 92 percent, Florida Gov. Rick Scott would cut off his right hand to have poll numbers like that.

Well if you think conservatives were ticked off when former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist hugged
President Barack Obama, you won't believe the lather they are in now because Christie accepted federal money (that omg might raise the deficit) to help pay for Sandy relief for the devastated home and business owners in his state.

The final straw for Christie was when he decided to let New Jersey join the Medicaid expansion that is part of Obamacare. This dual shock means that Christie, one of the rock stars of the 2012 ACU sponsored Conservative Political Action Conference, is persona non-grata at this year's CPAC gathering.

Apparently one key to being invited to speak is be a loser. Among the three dozen plus speakers are these luminaries from the 2012 campaign:

Mitt Romney - lost.

Newt Gingrich - lost.

Rick Perry - lost.

Paul Ryan - lost. (Okay he kept is House seat).

Rick Santorum - lost.

Allen West - lost.

And of course you get Wayne LaPierre (NRA), David Keene (NRA) Sarah Palin, and Rand Paul.

The list also includes Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Bobby Jindal among the speakers. One suspects they don't have a lot in common with Allen West.

Florida Republican Party takes on Charlie Crist again

Either the folks at the Republican Party of Florida have too much time on their hands and are really bored or they really fear former Gov. Charlie Crist. 

The Republican turned independent soon-to-be Democrat and likely candidate for governor is featured in still another attack by the Florida GOP. Makes you wonder what the Republican Party's internal polls are telling them.

Clearly, the party appears to be very concerned about Crist's political future. Could it be that they believe Crist could defeat Gov. Rick Scott in the 2014 election? 

Here's the latest missive from the Florida GOP:

 

After a brief estrangement, professional political candidate Charlie Crist has reforged his alliance with his hand-picked political co-star, Jim Greer, and the two are now trying to leverage it into a new, blockbuster theatrical release.

In a delicately choreographed theatrical teaser, the two former political co-conspirators thrilled MSNBC viewers this week in a coordinated duet, with supporting roles filled admirably by Al Sharpton and Rachael Maddow.

Florida, Cuban voters, the media and what went wrong

This first appeared in Columbia Journalism Review

 

By Brian E. Crowley

Somehow the Florida election is beginning to feel a bit like an episode from the old I Love Lucy comedy. Not only did the Sunshine State hang over election results for four days—and still counting in some races—but there has been forehead-slapping confusion over who won the Cuban-American vote here, by how much, and what it might mean. The confusion has been fueled by a collection of all-over-the-map poll numbers variously cited, depending on the news source, to draw premature conclusions about this unique voting population.

So let’s start with this widely repeated statement by Cuban-American Ricky Ricardo to his wife: “Lucy, you’ve got some ‘splaining’ to do.”

Jeb Bush's son George takes first step to becoming a candidate

If you are looking for another reason why former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will not run for president in 2016, then take note of the fact that his 36-year old son, George P. Bush,  filed papers Wednesday in Texas allowing him to appoint a campaign treasurer.

Bush is planning a run for Texas Land Commissioner. Two weeks ago, Bush told FOX Latino that he could possible become a candidate "in the next election cycle."

An excerpt from his interview with FOX:

FNL: You have been asked many times about your own political future, about running for office someday. I’ve seen your answers, but the typical answer people give when they’re asked that question is that they have no plans, that they’re just focused on the present. That’s the line.
Come on, it’s hard to believe it’s not in your plans. Your name is George Bush, you grew up with politics, with presidents. Come on George, tell us.

Bush:[Laughter] O.K., I am drawn to public service. I am thinking about statewide office, the next election cycle. After this election [Nov. 6] is over, I’ll entertain it. I’m intrigued by being in public office. I’m feeling the bug, the bug to jump into it. It’s in my genes, I can’t get it out.

Read more of the Bush interview here.

Bush, a former practicing attorney, is half-Mexican. For many Republicans who are looking for ways to increase their Hispanic support, Bush is an attractive candidate who comes with an important family name and an Hispanic heritage.

Will George be able to continue the Bush political dynasty? One thing is certain - his dad is not going to get in his way.

 

Florida official says 2.27 million votes already cast Dems lead

Chris Cate, commuications director for Florida Secretary of State, just tweeted the lastest election results:

"Total Votes Cast: 2.27 Million. Early Votes: 817k w/ 291k GOP & 392k DEM. Absentee Votes: 1.45 M w/ 635k GOP & 574k DEM."

Absentee ballots are nearly doubling early votes at this point. Democrats have a 100,000 vote edge in early votes while Republicans hold a 61,000 vote edge in absentee ballots cast. What does it all mean? Too early to tell. Early voting continues for the next five days.

One trend may be emerging....early voting appears to be below 2008 levels.

According to a 2008 story in USA Today: About 4.3 million people cast votes during early voting and absentee balloting; Democrats outnumbered Republicans by almost 360,000 among those voters, but it was unknown how they voted.

Should Democrats be worried? Perhaps.

New Allen West ad links Patrick Murphy to Democratic embarrassment

Some Democratic delegates looked like intolerant idiots Thursday during votes on the Democratic platform.  If you missed it, this ad by Republican Congressman Allen West pretty much sums it up - and Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for handing their opponents this little gem.

UPDATE: They took down the ad. Hopefully, West will put it back up soon.

UPDATE 2: It is back up....see it below.

Republican National Convention and a wince

The story below appears in Columbia Journalism Review

By Brian E. Crowley

TAMPA — Wince. That was my first reaction as I started to read a Sunday storyabout the Republican National Convention by Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith and Politico national political editor Charles Mahtesian.

It began as if written by a copy writer for the marketing department of the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Welcome to Florida, Republican conventioneers.

Let’s not mince words: You are in the most important state in America.

You already know this is America’s biggest battleground and that if Mitt Romney loses our 29 electoral votes Barack Obama is almost certainly re-elected. But with Florida it’s more than that.

This is a mega state so diverse that it mirrors the nation’s moods, sentiments and demographics. Florida is America—today’s America and tomorrow’s.

“It’s become a nation-state, just as New York and California were at their peak and Ohio was a century ago,” said historian Richard Norton Smith, a venerable chronicler of American politics.

 

Frankly, if I did not already know that Smith is one of Florida’s best political writers I might have stopped there. Fortunately, while the over-the-top prose continued to pop up occasionally, Smith and Mahtesian quickly redeem themselves with a well-written and informative piece that outshines most of the competition.

Miami Herald's Caputo gets Romney campaign all worked up

This story was first published by Columbia Journalism Review.

By Brian E. Crowley

Tucked somewhere into the recesses of the hidden place where only those with knowledge of the secret handshake can go, are the many files accumulated during the vetting process of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

The presidential campaign of Mitt Romney certainly pored over votes Ryan cast during 14 years in Congress as they were preparing to select Romney’s running mate. So one can only wonder if this little tidbit, picked up by The Miami Herald’s Marc Caputo, was noticed by the campaign’s inquisitors—Ryan voted at least twice in opposition to our country’s embargo with Cuba.

While nearly all of the nation’s media focused, as they should have, on Ryan’s views on overhauling the federal budget and Medicare, Caputo took the time to peek into an issue that is at the forefront of political interests of South Florida’s Cuban-Americans. When he did, it exploded.

Caputo acknowledges that he looked into Ryan’s positions on the Cuban embargo at the suggestion of sources. At 4:39 p.m. on Saturday, less than eight hours after Romney stood on the U.S.S. Wisconsin in Virginia to announce that Ryan was joining the Republican ticket, Caputo posted a 410-word entry on the Herald’s “Naked Politics” blog that opened with:

America's next Bush?

The Bush family political dynasty would appear to some to be on hold but the Prince-in-Waiting, isn't going to be on the sidelines much longer.

George P. Bush, son of Jeb, appears to be raising his profile and moving closer to the day when he will begin his political career. He has popped up in a number of interviews over the past few months and has made it clear that "public service" is an important part of his vision for himself.

His latest interview is with ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl (see it below).

You can expect to see Bush at the Republican National Convention in Tampa. While Bush is likely to begin his political career in Texas, don't count out Jeb Bush Jr. who may follow his father's footsteps by launching his political career in Florida.

 

Florida Senate candidate visits Chick-fil-A and worries we are becoming Canada

Former Florida Congressman David Weldon dropped by a Chick-fil-A this week to show his support for the fast-food chain.

"I personally believe that marriage is an institution ordained by God and spoken of in the Bible as being created by him, and being between a man and a woman," says Weldon in a video taped by his campaign.

Weldon is in a tough race against Congressman Connie Mack IV for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. Weldon's campaign has been geared toward outmanuvering Mack with an appeal to hardcore conservative voters.

"I am opposed to gay marriage," say Weldon.

He also concludes that "religious liberties" are being infringed upon and says that "there are certain verses" of the Bible dealing with homosexuality "that are not allowed to be read in Canada...and that is the direction we are going in as a nation."

Oh no! We could become Canada?

Bill Nelson slams Connie Mack in new campaign ad

Not too long along most folks in Florida who pay attention to such thing looked at the weak GOP field in the U.S. Senate race and concluded that this would be a cakewalk for incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson.

Not anymore. Most of the GOP established has annointed Congressman Connie Mack IV as their favorite son and Super PACS are pouring big dollars into the race slamming shut the money lead that Nelson once held.

This week Nelson, who has spent most of his adult life in elected office, began airing an ad introducing himself to Florida voters. Now just a couple days later, Nelson has launched his first negative ad against Mack.

Keep in mind, Mack does have a primary opponent - former Florida Congressman David Weldon who seems to be picking up momentum with hardcore conservatives. Nelson's ad could dig into the overwhelming lead that Mack appears to have over Weldon.

Some Democrats have told Crowley Political Report that Nelson has been too slow to react to weeks of negative ads attacking him. Polls suggest they may be right. Apparently Nelson's campaign team has gotten the message.

One thing seems clear - Republicans think they have a shot at winning this seat.

 

 

And here is Nelson's bio ad:

 

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A unique view of Mitt Romney's trip overseas and there's a cat

By far one of the best photographers in the news business, New York Times photographer Stephen Crowley has been chronicling the 2012 presidential campaign in his own unique style. 

You can understand why Crowley Political Report is so proud of his work.

Stephen traveled with Romney on the Republican presidential candidate's trip to Great Britain, Israel and Poland. You won't find pictures like these anywhere else - including the one with the cat.

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2012/08/01/us/politics/01romney.html

Connie Mack and Dave Weldon finally debate

Debate? Who says Connie Mack won't debate. Why we have it right here - a debate between Mack and Dave Weldon. These two Republican, Florida senate candidates really mix it up.

Well sort of.

Actually, it is a somewhat odd and amusing attempt by Weldon to have a faux video debate with Mack who has already declared himself the GOP nominee.

In fact, from Mack's point of view, Republican voters can just go ahead and skip the GOP primary because Mack is the self-appointed nominee. This clearly annoys Weldon who spent a considerable amount of time making this video.

So pull up a chair, turn up the volume and watch Florida's version of the Great Debate.

 

Obama arrives in Florida, he is no Jimmy Carter

President Obama arrives in Jacksonville this afternoon to start a two-day campaign swing through the Sunshine State. Florida has not been kind to Democratic presidential candidates. Since 1952, Florida has voted for the Democratic nominee just four times in 15 elections.

Florida may be a swing state but in fact it hasn't done much swinging. Even the four Democrat victories have reasonable explanations that would suggest Democrats won more because of historical flukes than a genuine swing to the Democratic Party.

Is Florida Veep jinxed?

Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Bob Graham, Reubin Askew, Claude Kirk ... some of them dearly wanted to be Veep, one of them said hell no. But whatever the reason, Florida pols never seem to make the final cut when the presidential nominee is looking for a number two.

In 1968, the Republican National Convention was in Miami Beach. No one wanted to be Richard Nixon's running mate more than Florida Gov. Claude Kirk. It was not to be. Instead, Nixon picked Spiro Agnew. The former Maryland governor had a bad habit of accepting bribes leading to his indictment and resignation as vice president.

Perhaps Agnew's most famous quote was his description of liberals and the media: "nattering nabobs of negativism."

By 1972, Democratic Gov. Reubin Askew was on presidential nominee Walter Mondale's short list. Mondale reportedly asked Askew to join the ticket and Askew declined. In 1984, Askew ran for president. He finished last in the New Hampshire primary and dropped out.

Both Bill Clinton (1992) and Al Gore (2000) seriously considered Democrat Bob Graham to be their running mate. He came closest to making the cut with Gore. The former governor and U.S. Senator decided to run for president himself in 2004. He made little progress.

Former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist hoped that Sen. John McCain would tap him for the Veep slot in 2008. Crist was always a long shot. Rather than pick a running mate from the Sunshine State, McCain reached up to the permafrost and picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

A lot of Florida Republicans hoped that former Gov. Jeb Bush would run for president in 2008. While they could understand why he might pass up the opportunity to follow his brother that year, the hope didn't die this year. Bush has firmly and repeatedly said he not interested in being at the top or the bottom of the ticket.

Which leaves us with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Some Republicans are simply giddy over the notion that Rubio is the best fit for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. They are convinced that having a Cuban-American on the ticket from a swing state would be all Romney needs to defeat President Obama in November.

Rubio has one big hurdle to overcome - the Florida jinx. 

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