Crowley Political Report

What the Times/Herald Republican poll didn't tell you

Crowley Political Report takes a closer look at this weekend's Times/Herald Republican presidential campaign poll for Columbia Journalism Review. The polls stories were written by Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith and Miami Herald political writer Marc Caputo. Some excerpts from the CJR report:

Both reporters went to considerable length to describe the complexities of the campaign and the reasons for Romney’s apparent resurgence and Gingrich’s apparent slide. Where they failed, however, is in what they did not report.

Newspaper polling (and the coverage of such polling) has long been a pet peeve of mine. Smith, Caputo and others with whom I worked as a political reporter have been subjected to my railing about newspaper polls countless times.

In Caputo’s and Smith’s stories, there is a clear example of what is wrong with newspaper polls and the coverage thereof. Both reporters wrote that their poll showed that Romney has a 24-point lead over Gingrich among Hispanic voters—52 to 28 percent. But readers were not told important details about these numbers. I interviewed Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research who conducted the poll for the newspapers. He said the survey of 500 registered, likely voting, Republicans included just 75 Hispanics. Of those 75 Hispanics surveyed, the number consisted “heavily” of Cuban Americans who live in Miami-Dade county.

Now, the argument can be made that Miami-Dade Cuban Americans will be the overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters in the Florida primary, as Caputo explains in his story. But neither Caputo nor Smith tells readers that their Hispanic survey is, in fact, not a comprehensive look at Florida Hispanic voters. Coker told me that if he were doing a detailed survey of Hispanics he would have surveyed 400 not 75.

Once you realize that the survey sample is 75, it begs the next question: What is the margin of error? The Times and Herald reported that the margin of error for the 500 Republicans surveyed was 4.5 percent. True. But what they did not tell readers was the margin of error for the 75 Hispanic voters surveyed, which Coker told me was plus or minus 12 percent. That means that the percentage of Hispanics who support Romney ranges from 40 percent to 64 percent and the percentage supporting Gingrich ranges from 16 percent to 40 percent.

What does it really mean? That there is little statistical value in the number of Hispanics surveyed. This is a common problem when news organizations report subgroups in their polls. Often the numbers surveyed are too small to reveal any meaningful information.

. . . 

Another problem is that neither the Times nor the Herald released its complete polling results with questions and crosstabs (the Times posted poll questions online). While print news holes may be too small, there is no reason not to post all of this information on the newspaper websites. The timing of the release is also problematic. The poll was conducted during the period of January 24-26. The results were not released on the newspaper websites until very late on Saturday, January 28. The results then appeared in the Sunday paper, three days after the survey was completed. Pollsters will tell you there is simply too much volatility that close to an election to hold on to poll results for three days. Even voters surveyed on the 24th could have changed their opinion by the 25th.

. . .

News organizations are getting increasingly sloppy with reporting on—and addressing the shortcomings of—their own polls, not to mention asking tough questions of all the other polls that seem to pop up every day.

The National Council on Public Polls offers 20 questions journalists should ask about poll results. Let’s ask them.

You can read the entire Columbia Journalism Review report here.

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Politico poll puts Gingrich within reach of defeating Romney

On Wednesday evening, a score of enthusiatic supporters of Newt Gingrich waved sign at motorists in Boca Raton. A member of the Crowley Political Report team reports that many drivers honked their horns and waved in support of Gingrich.

Could it be that the former House Speaker, is catching on in Florida?

Mitt Romney's campaign remains a formidable machine but the newest polls suggest Romney is still struggling to win the hearts of GOP primary voters.

A new Politico poll released Thursday morning shows Gingrich within striking distance of Romney in South Carolina.

"The poll finds Romney atop the GOP field with 37 percent and Gingrich at 30 percent. Ron Paul trails with 11 percent, followed by Rick Santorum at 10 percent and Rick Perry, who barely registers at four percent. Just eight percent remain undecided."

Many of the voters who will show up at the polls for the Jan. 31 Florida primary are likely to Tea Party supporting conservatives - folks not terribly fond of Romney.

What will likely save Romney in Florida is absentee ballots and possibly the start of early voting. Gingrich simple didn't catch fire when absentee ballots were being cast. 

Still, if Gingrich wins or comes very close to Romney in South Carolina, a victory in Florida could take Gingrich to the nomination.

Rear more of Politico here.

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Jeb Bush cracks under pressure says he will run for president

Now doesn't that headline make you feel better. 

No, Jeb Bush is not running for president. Not in 2012. Not in 2016. Not in 2020. 

Crowley Political Report couldn't resist. Our good friend Adam Smith of the soon-to-be Tampa Bay Times reports on The Buzz that someone is polling in New Hampshire asking whether folks there would like Bush to get in the Republican race.

Adam has it right - "It doesn't necessarily mean anything beyond a public pollster looking for an intriguing peg for attention or a wishful thinker aiming to coax a late entry into the race by a stronger GOP candidate."

See what else Adam has to say on TheBuzz.

Newt Gingrich, Tea Party and why Mitt Romney may lose Florida

Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest. 

In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.

That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.

But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich.  The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters."   Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.

Why?

Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.

Those folks are not going to vote for Romney.

 

Here's the Q Poll trendline:

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

                     Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 22  Aug 04

                     2011      2011       2011      2011

 

Perry                 4       5      28      13

Gingrich         35      17       7       4

Romney          22      21      22      23

Bachmann        4       4       5       6

Santorum          2       1       2       1

Paul                     8       3       6       9

Huntsman         2       1       2       1

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Will the Tea Party give Florida to Newt Gingrich?

A new poll shows Newt Gingrich supported by 50 percent of likely-voter Florida Republicans. Mitt Romney comes in at 19 percent and Herman Cain is at 10 percent.

What Crowley Political Report finds most interesting is that Gingrich gets 54 percent of the vote from Republicans who say they are Tea Party supporters.

Why does this matter?

Adam Hasner new campaign video

Times are tough for Florida U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hasner. Just as it looked like he had a chance to edge out George LeMieux for the nomination, Congressman Connie Mack pops up and says he thinks he'd like to have the GOP nod.

Recent polls show Hasner at 2 percent. He is even behind former U.S. Army Col. Mike McCalister who has shown a singular lack of understanding about Florida politics.

LeMieux, who was appointed to the Senate by former Gov. Charlie Crist to finish the term of Mel Martinez, has struggled to win conservative Republicans and Tea Party voters who loathe Crist and will never forgive LeMieux for being his pal.

A Quinnipiac University poll last week of Florida GOP voters found 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

How solid are those numbers? We won't know until Mack actually starts campaigning and voters get  better look at him. 

Meanwhile, Hasner offered up this new campaign video today. One suggestion - don't let your candidate sit in back seat. Put him right up there in the front passenger seat so he doesn't look like he has a chauffeur.

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St. Pete Times, Miami Herald may sign exclusive deal with Mason Dixon poll

Florida's political polling landscape is changing with an expected announcement that the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald will sign a 5-year deal with Mason Dixon to do exclusive polling for the newspapers.

The Times/Herald already works closely in providing their readers with coverage of the 2012 elections. The news organizations also combined their Tallahassee bureaus.

The newspapers have long done joint polling, usually using two pollsters - one Republican, one Democratic.

Sources tell Crowley Political Report that the agreement will allow for more polling throughout the year giving Florida readers a deeper snapshot of issues, campaigns, and voters.

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Why the Quinnipiac poll goes too far in looking at the Florida Senate race

Florida Republican voters can stay home next year because the nominee for U.S. Senate has already been decided, according to Quinnipiac University.

In fact, the Q's assistant director, Peter Brown, suggests that Congressman Connie Mack has such a formidable lead over his rivals - Adam Hasner, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister - that they should quit now.

Really?

“Although 45 percent of GOP voters, including 59 percent of GOP women, say they are undecided, Mack becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination,” Brown said.  “Mack’s candidacy may force the other GOP contenders to reconsider whether they want to stay in the race.”

That tidbit comes from the Quinnipiac press release about the survey results.

There is no question that the poll suggests that 30 seconds after Mack entered the race he jumped into a huge lead.   The survey of 513 registered Republicans (margin of error 4.3), shows 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

Yes, this is good news for Mack.  Clearly his name recognition - even if some of those voters only know his father, former U.S. Sen. Connie Mack - is a big help.  Mack can now go to potential donors and tell them it's time to get on board.

And the poll results are particularly dismal for Hasner who falls behind the unimpressive campaign of McCalister. As for LeMieux, if the poll is right, the former U.S. Senator continues to have a tough time convincing Florida Republicans that he deserves to go back to Washington.

But is Brown right to draw the conclusion that Mack is so strong the other candidates should consider quitting?

Nope.

Brown's comments about Quinnipiac polls have increasingly had little to do with political reality. He tends to offer opinions that seem out character for what should be an analytical look at the polling results

For example, in this poll, the Q once again looks at Florida Gov. Rick Scott's job approval  (36 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove) .

Brown describes those numbers with "Scott’s job approval remains in the toilet."  

Hardly an academic approach.

The poll suggests that Mack (40 percent)  and Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson (42 percent)  are in a dead heat.

Brown concludes:  “The fact that Mack is essentially tied with Nelson, who has been a statewide political figure for two decades, should set off warning bells at Democratic headquarters.”

Perhaps, but Brown jumps to a conclusion that a single poll, a year before the election, does not necessarily support. 

Finally, Brown gives us this tidbit:

“In a race as close as the Nelson-Mack affair could become, how President Barack Obama does in the Sunshine State in his re-election could play a major role in deciding who wins the Senate seat,” said Brown.

While Crowley Political Report is delighted to have Brown's opinion, it must be noted that there is nothing in the Q-poll that asks anything about Obama or his impact on the Florida U.S. Senate race in 2012.

The Quinnipiac Poll can be a useful look at a moment-in-time in the campaign when it sticks to the polls results. The meaningless commentary, however, casts doubts on the university's ability to understand its own data.

 

 

 

 

Florida voters trust Obama and Romney

A new Quinnipiac Unviersity poll released today suggests that Florida voters are evenly divided between Republican Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama.  While these results have little meaning at this point in the 2012 election, there are some interesting tidbits in the poll.

First, the most worrisome number for Obama is 83 percent.

That is the percentage of Florida voters who said they are either "very dissatisfied" (52 percent), or "somewhat dissatisfied" (23 percent), when asked what they think about "the way things are going in the nation today."

The poll fails to explore that question further, so we don't know whether these voters are dissatisfied with Obama, Congress, Wall Street, or all of the above.

Still, no sitting president wants to enter an election year with those kinds of numbers. Dissatisfied voters also are persuadeable voters and that's a good sign for Republicans.

The number one issue for Florida voters remains the economy (55 percent), followed by the federal deficit (13 percent), and health care (11 percent). All other issues were in signal digits.

With few signs of a significantly improving economy between now and November 2012, the dissatisfaction numbers and top issues concerns are not likely to change. This should worry the White House which needs Florida's 29 electoral votes to win a second term.

Good news for Obama - Florida voters believe he is "honest and trustworthy" (52 percent).  But Mitt Romney did as well as Obama with 51 percent.  Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich hover between 37 percent and 40 percent.

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CNN TIME Florida poll Romney 30, Cain 18, Perry 9

Texas Gov. Rick Perry seems to have little traction with Florida Republicans while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney clings to a commanding lead with Herman Cain following in second place. 

Well maybe.

The sample of 401 registered GOP voters is a tad small. The margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent which is a tad large.

Tadding aside, the important thing is that at this stage of a campaign it's all about headlines and perceptions. 

Here's what the poll really tells us - despite some grumbling, Florida's GOP voters are comfortable with Romney.  Here's what the poll doesn't tell us - who is going to show up to vote?

If you watch the dance in teh 2012 Florida's U.S. Senate race, plus last year's race for governor and U.S. Senate, it is pretty clear that the most likely voters in the January 31 primary will be Tea Party voters and other who feel similarly.

Not good for Romney.

He is still a tough sell to the Tea Party - a group known to be willing to cut a candidate off at the knees for the slightest perceived transgression.

Could Rick Perry take his place? Maybe. But at 9 percent in this poll - tied with Newt Gingrich - it's pretty clear that Florida Republicans remain unimpressed. 

The wild card remains Cain. He's popular with Tea Party and may finally be putting together the money and Florida organization he needs to have a shot.

We're less than 100 days away from the Jan. 31 primary - and the candidates still have to deal with Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Enjoy the poll - but don't take it too seriously.

Consider this, 50 percent of those surveyed said they might change their mind.

The results: Romney 30%   Cain 18%    Gingrich 9%    Perry 9%    Paul 6%    Bachmann 4%    Huntsman 1%    Santorum 1%    No opinion 14%

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Florida GOP thanks Rick Perry for breakfast votes for Herman Cain

 Herman Cain whooped Rick Perry soundly in Florida Republican Party straw poll Saturday leaving one critical question - Does the Florida GOP still exist or is it now the Florida Tea Party?

Cain - the Godfather's pizza guy. Mr. 9-9-9.

He left Perry drowning in tomato sauce. Cain got 37 percent of the more than 2,500 votes cast. Perry got 15 percent. Romney, who decided not to participate in Presidency 5, got 14 percent.

The sad candidacy of the strident, anti-everything Rick Santorum got nearly 11 percent followed by his political twin, Ron Paul at a tad over 10 percent.

Poor Perry. His swaggering Texas image crumbles in every debate. The delegates may have been disappointed when Perry looked lost at Thursday's CPAC debate, but by golly he bought them breakfast.

Perry told them they were important. He said Florida was important. Shucks,  Presidency 5 was supposed to be a major jumping off point for the Perry campaign.

Is Perry doomed?

No.

Is Cain going to be the GOP nominee?

No.

Will the Sunday talk shows go on and on and on about this with dire warnings that Perry better get his act together? (Note: think Ames, Iowa and Michele Bachmann).

Yes.

Does anybody at this point really understand what is going on with Florida Republicans?

No.

Is the Florida Republican Party being taken over by the Tea Party?

Yes.

And who is the leader of the Florida Tea Party?

Gov. Rick Scott.

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It's getting very cloudy for Obama in the Sunshine State

If President Obama loses Florida in 2012, his presidency will be over.  A new Quinnipiac Poll is echoing what many Sunshine State Democrats are saying privately - Obama is losing his Florida support.

One Florida Democratic leader told Crowley Political Report that he has never been this discouraged. A party fundraiser grits his teeth and warns that Obama better start spending some quality time in Florida. Out of loyality, they did not want to named complaining about the president.

Republicans are almost giddy. As they flock to Orlando for Presidency 5 and the CPAC gathering, the party faithful are convinced that Obama is a one-term president. For Republicans the biggest quandry is which candidate they want to see in the White House.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made an impressive showing with a group of about 30 party leaders and elected officials in West Palm Beach. Palm Beach County chairman Sid Dinerstein, who insists he is remaining neutral, was clearly charmed by Perry.

"I like what he has to say and he really listens," said Dinerstein.

The only dark moment came when Perry's goons, otherwise known as Texas Rangers, shut down the Kravis Center property to the media. The Kravis center has hosted scores of national political figures and the shut down was unprecedented.

One Ranger threatened to have a television reporter handcuffed if he tried to go the normal media staging area.  It was an unnecessary bullying tactic since Perry was using a back interest to enter the event site and was nowhere near the media. In fact, all Perry's folks accomplished was making it difficult for the TV stations to do interviews with guests who were praising the governor.

Brilliant advance work guys.

Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac Poll found that "Florida voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state."

No wonder Republicans are excited and Democrats are in a funk.

And here's the really bad news for the White House - "Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 – 41 percent." 

Here's a closer look at the Quinnipiac Poll (the results include the Florida U.S. Senate race):

Can Florida voters fall in love with Rick Scott?

Florida Gov. Rick Scott has the worst poll numbers of any governor in the nation.  His dismal 29 percent favorability rating has climbed to a mere 35 percent in a new Quinnipiac poll.

Scott has taken notice.

Despite repeatedly telling folks that he does not read newspapers or polls, Scott is clearly paying close attention to both.

In recent weeks, Scott has reshuffled his staff bringing on Tallahassee insider Steve McNamara as his chief-of-staff.  And, as Crowley Political Report and others have noted, Scott is making a greater effort to mingle with the folks.

Scott clearly has is work cut out for him.

According to Quinnipiac, "Florida voters say 45 – 34 percent that they do not like Scott as a person.  This is the highest ‘dislike’ seen in any state surveyed by Quinnipiac University this year.  Voters tend to like their governor, even when they disapprove of the job he or she is doing.  Florida voters like President Barack Obama as a person 69 – 18 percent, but disapprove 51 – 44 percent of the job he is doing, as reported yesterday."

In other findings:

Voters dislike his policies 54 – 34 percent;

Voters disapprove 57 – 32 percent of his handling of the state budget;

42 percent say budget cuts went too far, as 20 percent say not far enough and 25 percent say the cuts are about right;

Voters say 39 – 26 percent that spending cuts in the budget will hurt, rather than help, the Florida economy;

Voters say 51 – 33 percent that the new state budget is unfair to them.

Scott has his work cut out for him. Can he pull it off?

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,417 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey was conduct from July 27 to Aug 2.

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Osama helps Obama, Florida voters want out of Afghanistan and Libya

Looking at today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters reveals a few interesting tidbits that could color the 2012 presidential election.

Sure President Obama inched into a 51 percent approval rating but that is clearly a fragile number. He benefited from the killing of Osama bin Laden and worries about the GOP plan to dismantle Medicare in favor of a voucher plan for medical care.

But there are some clear warning signs in this poll that Floridians could turn on Obama if the case is made that the White House is mired in Afghanistan and Libya.

Fifty-six percent of Florida voters said the U.S. should not be fighting in Afghanistan. Fifty-seven percent oppose our involvement in Libya.

Another interesting number, undoubtedly related to gas prices - 49 percent of Florida voters favor offshore drilling for gas and oil.

In other poll results Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a commanding lead over his three potential GOP rivals.  And voters suggested they know little about the Republican candidates - Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux.

None of that matters since few voters are paying any real attention to Florida's senate race.

That will happen soon enough.

 

Is Rick Scott helping Obama win Florida in 2012?

Crowley Political Report is not sure whether to admire Florida Gov. Rick Scott for sticking to his beliefs about state government or to simply note that once again Scott and his team remain clueless about what Floridians really want.

We'll go with clueless.

The latest Quinnipiac Poll suggests that most Floridians agree.  Rick Scott has managed to squander what little support he had on election-day 2010. In little more than six months, Scott's approval rating has sunk to 29 percent.

That May number is even worse than Scott's already dismal April poll numbers which showed that just 35 percent of Florida voters approved of Scott's job performance.

This is great news for the Obama administration. If Scott's numbers continue to remain abysmally low, he could pull down the Republican Party in Florida.

Republicans are not likely to win the White House without winning Florida's 29 electoral votes. The GOP should be looking at the Sunshine State with great anticipation - after all, the 2010 election gave the party the governor's mansion, all three cabinet seats and veto-proof majorities in the state House and Senate.

But the face of the party is Scott. And right now it is not a very pretty face.

Of course, that begs a larger question - Is Rick Scott really a Republican?

Just how much trouble is Rick Scott in?

Should we be worried about Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott? You have to be in a heap a trouble to ask your mom to bail you out.

Crowley Political Report has been closely following Florida governors since 1979. This is the first time a governor has called his mom and asked her to tell Floridians that he is doing a good job.

This is just odd behavior.

It's a little like a grown man bringing his mom to the office to tell his boss that he's a swell worker and should have a raise.

So why would you ask your mother to make a 38-second internet ad declaring you a "good boy" just days after the end of your first legislative session?

It would appear this is Scott's way of  going to Poll Depot to purchase better poll numbers.  This is what Scott does. Cranky with Obama's health care plan? - dip into your checking account and start you own anti-Obama care organization.

Wanna be governor? - use the big debit card. Ditto the private jet. And now, it appears that Scott wants to buy some friends.

And what does that tell us about Scott and his advisors? That they have a very cynical view of Floridians.

Here is Esther Scott speaking about her son (note: she does not live in Florida). (Note 2 - some have grumbled about the ad being shot in the governor's mansion in Tallahassee - who cares, really?)

Art by Patrick Crowley

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Florida Gov. Rick Scott's marketing crisis

Last night on Twitter, Crowley Political Report asked this question - Rick Scott's public support is tanking - so how does the CEO explain such poor customer satisfaction?

When Gov. Scott campaigned he offered himself as an experienced businessman who would bring sound business practices to the art of governing.

Apparently, that concept did not include successful marketing which is a bit of a surprise considering how well his marketing team did in getting him elected.

Scott made it clear shortly after becoming governor that the first job of a new CEO is to "get control of the checkbook."

But while Florida's 45th governor is busy getting control of the checkbook, slashing dollars and people, and looking for wholesale revamping of government agencies - he is doing a lousy job of public relations and marketing.

Should Jeb Bush run against Bill Nelson for Senate?

First let's note that any polling down about an election that won't take place until November 2012 is largely worthless.

Second, while favorability ratings are fun to look at, the value of that information is, shall we say, very limited at this point when looked at in context of an election more than 18 months away.

So the newest Public Policy Polling survey is really an exercise in amusement.

But from it we can derive this question - is former Gov. Jeb Bush the only person who has a real chance of defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?

Crowley Political Report says the answer is "yes" and "no."

Certainly if Bush gets into the race it would be a nightmare for Nelson. It would also be a nightmare for every GOP candidate remotely thinking about running.

Rick Scott or Marco Rubio for vice president

On Jan. 3, Crowley Political Report wondered how long it would take for folks to start wondering if Florida Gov. Rick Scott was vice presidential material.

It didn't take long. Within weeks some speculation began trickling out - with a few folks wondering if Scott could make the top of the ticket.

Scott doesn't appear to be thinking about the White House in 2012, but as we wrote in January if you are Florida's governor, someone is thinking you might be a dandy vice-president.

By the summer of 2012, Scott - assuming he is not a disaster - could be getting a lot of national attention as Republicans begin to gather in Tampa for their national convention.

Unfortunately for Scott he is being eclipsed on the national stage by Florida's newest United States Senator - Marco Rubio.

Rubio rolled out his national visibility campaign this week insisting all he wants to be is a good senator for Florida.

President? Nope. Vice President? Nope.

When Rubio declines this causes genuine pain for the nation's conservative commentators. They L-O-V-E Rubio.

Meanwhile, let's just say Scott is a little less loved.

Do newspapers still matter?

People have been signing the death warrant for newspapers for decades. With the emergence of the internet and the titanic sinking of ad revenue, many newspapers in Florida and elsewhere are a shadow of their glorious past.

Now, iPads, smartphones, Twitter, Facebook and other platforms are not only redefining news but further dismantling the traditional advertising model.

And it may be one explanation for why Florida Gov. Rick Scott and other politicians feel less inclined to cater to news media.

A PEW research study released today titled - State of the News Media 2011 - finds a few glimmers of hope but only a few.

Below are a few excerpts. You can read the entire PEW study here.

In a media world where consumers decide what news they want to get and how they want to get it, the future will belong to those who understand the public's changing behavior and can target content and advertising to snugly fit the interests of each user. That knowledge -- and the expertise in gathering it -- increasingly resides with technology companies outside journalism.

In the 20th century, the news media thrived by being the intermediary others needed to reach customers. In the 21st, increasingly there is a new intermediary: Software programmers, content aggregators and device makers control access to the public. The news industry, late to adapt and culturally more tied to content creation than engineering, finds itself more a follower than a leader in shaping its business.