Crowley Political Report

Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Will Allen West fade quietly away?

In one respect you have to feel sorry for Allen West. When the Florida congressman was looking at the political landscape earlier this year, he surely believed that he would easily win a second term.

When the Florida Legislature drew the new congressional map, West took one look at the district drawn for him and quickly realized that there were too many Democrats for him to win that seat. So he looked north, more than 40 miles away, and decided to move.

What has gotten lost in that tidbit of history is the fact that another incumbent Republican, Tom Rooney, hoped to stay in the largely Treasure Coast district. But West bullied his way in. It was clear to Rooney that defeating West in a GOP primary would be impossible. West would have millions of dollars and the adulation of the Tea Party. It was simply easier for Rooney to move over to an agricultural district that stretches across the state.

West was challenged by GOP rival, longtime, Martin County Sheriff Bob Crowder. But Crowder's campaign collapsed almost before it began. Republican voters were not eager to support a candidate who had endorsed Democrat Alex Sink for governor in 2010.

Meanwhile a small Democratic drama was unfolding in the district West had abandoned. Young Democrat Patrick Murphy had planned to challenge West in that district but former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel decided to run there. It quickly became clear to Murphy that he could not win the Democratic nomination.

Murphy followed West north.

Few thought Murphy could defeat West .... and West clearly thought Murphy was just a punk kid, an annoyance on the way to a second term. After a painful campaign, one of the ugliest in Florida, and an equally painful vote count, Murphy won.

While West conceded defeat he has not called Murphy. Interestingly, some of West's supporters are angry that the former Army officer never visited his campaign troops on election night. 

There has been a lot of gloating since West's defeat. Many see West as a political bully who, like the bully in high school who finally gets his comeuppance, deserves to be humiliated.

Allen West gets swapped for Adam Hasner

South Florida voters can be forgiven if they start to feel a bit confused. Many saw this ad...featuring among others a little girl...suggesting that because of Congressman Allen West, people are being denied life saving research. 

 

Now, there is new ad - and we use that term loosely - that is the same execept for a little picture swap. West is replaced by Republican Adam Hasner.

 

 

The ad is by the Democratic House Majority Pac. Both West and Hasner are locked in fierce races with their Democratic opponents. West and Democratic political newcomer Patrick Murphy have had one of the nastiest races in the nation. Hasner and Democratic rival Lois Frankel are not far behind on the stink meter.

In fact, compared to some of the ads their own campaigns have run, this one is pretty mild. Similar ads are being aired by the House Majority Pac in at least six other congressional races around the country.

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Now we have the is Allen West crazy ad

Republican Congressman Allen West has been in a dogfight with Democrat Patrick Murphy to keep his seat in Congress. West, who has never been shy about saying outrageous things, is having some of his most interesting comments tossed back at him in this new Murphy ad.

Floridians are a bit like Carrie these days, drenched in the blood of relentlessly ugly campaign ads from candidates up and down the ballot. West and Murhpy have been particularly brutal. 

Here's the latest:

 

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New Allen West ad links Patrick Murphy to Democratic embarrassment

Some Democratic delegates looked like intolerant idiots Thursday during votes on the Democratic platform.  If you missed it, this ad by Republican Congressman Allen West pretty much sums it up - and Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for handing their opponents this little gem.

UPDATE: They took down the ad. Hopefully, West will put it back up soon.

UPDATE 2: It is back up....see it below.

Throwing punches at Allen West

American Sunrise is behind a new ad throwing verbal punches at a boxing-glove clad Allen West. In what is becoming an increasingly common tactic, the Republican congressman is being attacked by supporters of Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy - even though West has yet to win his party's nomination.

Clearly the Murphy folks believe West is going to defeat Martin County Sheriff Robert Crowder in the GOP primary. The District 18 race is one of Florida's hottest contests and Murphy, a political newcomer, has a reasonable chance of defeating West if he becomes the nominee.

Speaking of Murphy folks, it turns out that the biggest contributor to American Sunrise PAC is Murphy's dad, Tom Murphy Jr., owner of a Miami-based construction company. Pop dropped $250,000 on his kid. Who says times are tough?

National Republican Campaign Committee spokesman Nat Sillin has this take on Murphy PAC. 

“Looks like daddy is coming to the rescue of silver spoon Patrick Erin Murphy.  Murphy may think that South Florida is his own personal playground but hard working Floridians don’t want a representative in Congress who calls a decorated war veteran a coward, verbally abuses law enforcement officers, and has daddy bankroll TV ads supporting his campaign.” 

Allen West spends a lot, Patrick Murphy and Lois Frankel spend less

Gonna be a good year for campaign consultants. A Crowley Political Report look at the Federal Election Commission reports filed by Allen West, Lois Frankel and Patrick Murphy show that the three congressional candidates have already spent nearly $2.9 million.

Yup. $2.9 million by the end of September.

The biggest spender is Republican incumbent Allen West at $2.26 million.  Democrat political newbie Patrick Murphy spent $381,000.  Meanwhile Democrat Lois Frankel spent $223,000.

Check out the details yourself from the FEC reports shown below.

Allen West piles up the cash, should Democrats just surrender now?

Good lord? Really? Crowley Political Report does not shock easily but Florida Republican Congressman Allen West raised a stunning amount of campaign cash during the three months ending Sept. 30.

$1.9 million.  Yup. $1.9 million.

Consider this - Democratic U.S.  Sen. Bill Nelson raised nearly $2 million. Let's call it a tie.

There are two Democrats hoping to win West's District 22 seat - former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel and Broward County businessman Patrick Murphy.

Frankel says she raised $415,000. Murphy raised $313,000. That would be a combined $728,000 for the two Democrats compared to West's $1.9 million.

Should Frankel and Murphy just go home?

Frankel has raised a total of $1.1 million since starting her campaign. Murphy has raised $1.2 million.

West has raised  $3.9 million.

Fun with math - Two Democrats total - $2.3 million. West - $3.9 million.

Fun fact - Much of the money Frankel and Murphy raised will have to be spent in the Democratic primary. West does not have, and is not like to have, a serious primary opponent.

Nope, West is just going to keep raking in the dough. A few more million for West and the DCCC may take West off their target list.

No matter how much Democrats would like to get that seat back, Frankel and Murphy are going to need a whole lot more cash to pull it off.

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Art by Chicago artist and graphic designer Brian J. Crowley

Lois Frankel takes a cheap shot at Allen West

Democrat Lois Frankel is calling Republican Allen West a "woman hater."

This is nonsense but coming from Frankel, not surprising.

After the dust-up between West and Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz, where the freshman Republican went  too far in his reaction to comments made by Wasserman Schultz on the House floor, Frankel decided to turn it to her advantage by creating a website dubbed WestHatesWomen.

It is a cheap shot.

Frankel hopes to defeat West in the 2012 election. First, she must get past Patrick Murphy who also is a candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Frankel has a long history of running nasty campaigns. Read more about that here.

The WestHatesWomen site features a petition demanding that West apologize for berating Wasserman Schultz.

"This man has a problem with women. Demand an apology. And, demand he donate $1,000 to the Florida Coalition Against Domestic Violence to show he's serious!"

Frankel, who can make a Marine blush, has done her share of berating people.

There is not a single issue that Frankel and West will agree upon. There are plenty of issues that they can fiercely debate.

And while West's behavior was disturbing because it was out-of-proportion to the act that caused it, there is no evidence that West hates women.

Political newcomer is making race for Allen West's seat interesting

Who in the world is Patrick Murphy?

Surely that has to be a question that Democrat Lois Frankel is asking this week. Murphy is a 28-year old newcomer to Florida politics who is challenging Frankel, a political veteran, for the Democratic nomination in the 22nd congressional district now held by Republican Allen West.

Murphy's campaign tells Crowley Political Report, that the candidate raised $450,000 in the last quarter. Murphy raised $350,ooo during March bringing his total to $800,000. We should note that $30,000 of that total Murphy gave to himself. Still $770,000 from contributers is impressive.

This is not good news for Frankel who has not yet revealed what she raised during the three-month period ending June 30. In March, Frankel raised $254,000 and there is no reason to believe that she did not have a good quarter.

If Frankel had hoped to walk away with the nomination, the former state representative and West Palm Beach mayor may find the road a bit rockier than expected.

Murphy, who was a Republican not long ago, was born in the Keys and lives in Broward County. He is vice president of Coastal Environmental Services. His campaign team includes South Florida Democratic operatives Jeff Garcia and Eric Johnson.

One of the most interesting aspects of this and all congressional seats is that no one knows what the district will look like in 2012. The Florida Legislature will begin seriously redrawing the districts in January with the final lines not completed until late February. And there will be legal challenges that will leave the lines in doubt until mid-summer.

Democrats in Washington must be looking at the West seat with some concern. Enormously popular with GOP conservatives and Tea Party activists, West will have no trouble raising money. Democrats will need to invest heavily to defeat West and a bloody primary is not going to be helpful.

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