Crowley Political Report

Christmas gifts for the GOP candidates from Mark Foley, Ken Pruitt and more

FlDemocracy2012.com, a creation of Florida's Scripps newspapers and televsion stations, asked a variety of Florida politcal types what they would give the Republican presidential candidates for Christmas.

The answers ranged from quite serious to ponderous to hillarious. Among those participating: Former Florida Senate President Ken Pruitt, former U.S. Reps. Tim Mahoney and Mark Foley, GOP political consultant Chris Ingram, Senate President Mike Haridopolos, USF Professor Wayne Garcia, and others.

A couple of their responses:

Former Florida Senate President Ken Pruitt (R): “I would give each one of the candidates a dove, representing peace, love and kindness, which is what we’re all going to need during this political season.”

Former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL):  “That in the spirit of the holidays, Romney accidentally drinks spiked egg nog and admits it. That in his new role as a Catholic, Newt Gingrich abstains from lecturing the baby Jesus that Bethlehem was an invented location. That someone tells Bachmann that Hanukkah isn’t special bread you make French toast with. That someone explains to Rick Santorum that he doesn’t actually have to pretend he lives in Iowa after the caucuses.”

Read what others had to say here.

Note: Crowley Political Report does political analysis for WPTV NewChannel 5, a Scripps station.

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Haridopolos unimpressed with Hasner, LeMieux wants Jeb instead

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos tells To the Point that neither Adam Hasner nor George LeMieux impress him as U.S. Senate candidate and he would like to see Jeb Bush or Allen West get into the race.

Haridopolos says little about his reasons for dropping out of the Republican primary during his appearance on the Sunday show which airs after Meet the Press on WPTV-NewsChannel 5 at 10 a.m.

Lots of Republicans would like to see Jeb Bush run for office in 2012 but most of Bush's supporters dream about him running for president. Bush has repeatedly said he is not interested in the White House and there's a snowball's chance on a hot Florida day that he will run for the senate.

Crowley Political Report - a political analyst for WPTV - recently suggested that Allen West may have no better time than now to run for the Senate. So far, West has expressed no interest in the race.

Haridopolos has made it clear in a number of interviews that he think very little of Hasner and question's Hasner's credential's as a conservative.

Does Haridopolos' opinion matter?

Not hardly. Once he dropped out of the race insisting that he would not run for any political office next year, he turned himself into another soon-to-be forgotten portrait in the Senate chamber.

Once out of office, people quickly forget you were there.

Ask Bill McCollum.

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Florida Senate race looking for a frontrunner

 
Crowley Political Report drops off the grid for a few days and the next thing you know there is a shake-up in Florida's U.S. Senate race. Or was there?

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination with the feeble excuse that he just now discovered that running for statewide office while being senate president is very time-consuming.

Really?

Of course, that excuse is nonsense. There is lots of speculation that Haridopolos will soon be embroiled in the legal problems of ousted and arrested former state GOP chairman Jim Greer. He is scheduled to give a deposition in the case next month.

Whatever the real reason for Hariodopolos' hasty departure from the race, the fact is that he was very unlikely to win the nomination.   And while everyone, including Gov. Rick Scott, went through the motions of wishing Haridopolos a fond farewell from the race, seconds after he dropped out the scrambling for position began.

If you're anybody of importance in Florida GOP circles who supported Haridopolos,  your phone is already ringing with calls from former  substitute U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Neither Hasner nor LeMieux have shown a commanding presence at this point.

Should Allen West run for the Senate?

Seriously, isn't Allen West the best GOP candidate to run against Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?

As Miami Herald political writer Marc Caputo aptly put it, West has given Florida Republicans 1.5 million reasons why he might be the GOP's best candidate.

As Crowley Political Report noted recently, this stage of the U.S. senate race is all about money. During the 3 month period ending June 30, West raised $1.5 million for his campaign to win reelection to Florida's 22nd congressional district. Toss in the $433,000 West raised during the first three months of the year and he has collected nearly $2 million.

Impressive.

Politics is about money and timing. West has said he is not interested in running for the senate but money and timing suggest there may be no better time than now for the former Army Lt. Colonel.

Republicans love West. Tea Party activists love West. Rush Limbaugh loves West. Conservative independents love West. And most Democrats loathe him.

If you get West, you get someone who doesn't pull his punches and leans extreme. That might not sell in any other election cycle but right now, in the Tea Party controlled Florida Republican Party, extreme sells.

Should West decide to run for the U.S. Senate, much of the GOP field will collapse shortly after his announcement.

Compare West's $1.5 million in the last quarter to the money raised by the existing U.S. Senate candidates - Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos' $900,000, former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux's $950,000, and former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner's $560,000.

Could West defeat Nelson?

Nelson will not be easy for any Republican to defeat. For now, the more interesting political question is whether West will be convinced by his supporters to take a chance on running for GOP senate nomination.

In Florida, anything can happen.

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Florida U.S. Senate race gets more complicated for Republicans

There must be a lot of Republicans who are convinced that Florida Democrat Bill Nelson is not going to be able to hang on to his U.S. Senate seat.

On Tuesday, the Florida GOP gets it fifth candidate for U.S. senate with the addition of Craig Miller, former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouse. Miller is going to fly around the state for a series of airport press conferences with stops in Orlando, Tampa, West Palm Beach, Naples and Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, the latest report in the money primary shows that George LeMieux raised $950,000 during the three month period ending June 30. LeMieux's campaign did not say how much cash former U.S. senator still has in the bank after expenses.

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos fell short of LeMieux's total, raising $900,000. Haridopolos had already raised $2.6 million, so he remains the frontrunner.  Coming in third is former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner who raised $560,000.

Also running for the senate is retired Army Lt.Col. Mike McCallister. He is not expected to raise much money.

Which brings us back to Miller. How seriously should we take him as a statewide candidate?

His first bid for office is not a promising sign. Miller ran for an Orlando congressional seat in 2010 and finished third. To be fair, LeMieux lost his only previous campaign - a state house seat race and he has not been on the ballot since.

What will make Miller a viable candidate?

Cash.

Yup money. And lots of it. Can he get it? Does Miller have his own dough to spend?

Crowley Political Report believes in cash. Having it doesn't mean a candidate is going to win. But not having it almost certainly means a statewide candidate is going to lose.

There are more than 4 million GOP voters in Florida. If only 25 percent vote in the primary that is 1 million voters. If a candidate talked to 1,000 voters every day for 365 days, he would only reach a bit more than one-third of the GOP primary voters.

It takes money to reach voters. And most of that money is spent on television ads. A significant, statewide television buy will cost a candidate more than $1.5 million a week. And you need money for all the things it takes to make a candidate competitive.

That's why, fellow political watchers, you have to keep an eye on the money.

 

George LeMieux, the final mystery in the Senate money race

We're waiting on George. Florida's former substitute U.S. Senator is the last hold out in the big reveal of how much money was raised by GOP senate candidates last quarter.

Will LeMieux be competitive?

We just got numbers from Adam Hasner and the former state House Majority Leader, says he raised $560,000 from April 1 to June 30.

Not bad, not great. But when you compare that number to Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos' $900,000, it looks a bit weak. And Haridoplos had already raised $2.6 million.

This puts LeMieux in an interesting position. If he raised more money than Haridopolos during the past three months, LeMieux could argue that Haridopolos' best money days are behind him. LeMieux could emerge as the favored candidate.

On the other hand, if LeMieux raised significantly less than Haridopolos, or even worse, less than Hasner, LeMieux's campaign is in serious trouble.

As for Hasner, he needs to at least stay competitive with LeMieux. If Hasner is significantly behind LeMieux and Haridopolos, it will get even harder for Hasner to raise money.

Excerpts from Hasner's statement:

We always expected the two establishment opponents to start off raising more money than us, because that's what the establishment does. But we'll ultimately win this race because of our positive conservative principles and a growing grassroots movement that's looking for leaders who'll stand up to Democrats and Republicans who act like them.

More impressive than how much we raised is how we raised it. Nearly 2000 grassroots conservatives across Florida and the country donated small amounts to build a big number. More than 90% of our contributors have not made the maximum contribution, meaning they can give again and again in future quarters. And more than 85% of our contributors donated less than $1000.

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Art by Patrick Crowley

This is a big day for Haridopolos, Hasner and LeMieux

 
 If you are a Republican, especially a Florida Republican, you probably got an email this week begging for money.

Today is the final day for Florida's U.S. Senate candidates to raise money before they have to file contribution reports next month.  In a feverish effort to push up their numbers, they spend the final days before the deadline doing little more than asking for cash.

When the reports are filed on July 15th, it will be the first serious test of the fundraising ability of Florida's three, Republican U.S. Senate candidates, Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux.

Florida is all about cash. You can't win without boatloads of it. This is a state where it costs more than $1.5 million for just one week of television ads. Toss in direct mail, phone banks, polling, staff, radio ads, robo-calls, and all the other stuff of a campaign and, well, it gets expensive fast.

So while we would like to think that voters decide elections, the fact is that campaign contributions decide elections first. Many a decent candidate for statewide office has fallen by the wayside because they were unable to raise enough money to compete.

Osama helps Obama, Florida voters want out of Afghanistan and Libya

Looking at today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters reveals a few interesting tidbits that could color the 2012 presidential election.

Sure President Obama inched into a 51 percent approval rating but that is clearly a fragile number. He benefited from the killing of Osama bin Laden and worries about the GOP plan to dismantle Medicare in favor of a voucher plan for medical care.

But there are some clear warning signs in this poll that Floridians could turn on Obama if the case is made that the White House is mired in Afghanistan and Libya.

Fifty-six percent of Florida voters said the U.S. should not be fighting in Afghanistan. Fifty-seven percent oppose our involvement in Libya.

Another interesting number, undoubtedly related to gas prices - 49 percent of Florida voters favor offshore drilling for gas and oil.

In other poll results Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a commanding lead over his three potential GOP rivals.  And voters suggested they know little about the Republican candidates - Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux.

None of that matters since few voters are paying any real attention to Florida's senate race.

That will happen soon enough.

 

Is Marco Rubio the key to Florida's U.S. Senate race?

Marco Rubio may be the most valuable player in the 2012 Florida GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

Rubio's endorsement could turn out to be more valuable than that of former Gov. Jeb Bush or Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

Rubio has been a U.S. Senator for about four months - long enough for conservatives like Rush Limbaugh to swoon over the idea of a Rubio presidency.

And the fact is that despite Jeb Bush's enormous popularity, the luster starts to fade when you have been out of office for more than four years and are showing no signs of getting back in the game.

And while a sitting governor can be a huge help, if Rick Scott's popularity doesn't begin to climb his endorsement may do more harm than good.

Which brings us back to Rubio - who will he endorse?

LeMieux begins Florida Senate campaign

Apparently George LeMieux enjoyed being in the halls of the U.S. Senate.

LeMieux first annunced his campaign today by changing his Twitter avatar. Then came the email.

More later.

It is now later.

No one is really surprised that LeMieux entered the race. It will be his second political campaign having lost one in a bid to join the state legislature.

LeMieux is credited with masterminding the Charlie Crist campaign for governor but Lemieux abandoned Crist when the former Republican decided to be an independent candidate for governor.

The GOP money primary is now in full bloom with Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos already in the race and former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner in the wings.

Crowley Political Report is still expecting some yet-to-be-heard-from rich guy to enter the race next year.

Which of three candidates has the early lead?

For now, we'll give it to LeMieux by a hair.

Should Jeb Bush run against Bill Nelson for Senate?

First let's note that any polling down about an election that won't take place until November 2012 is largely worthless.

Second, while favorability ratings are fun to look at, the value of that information is, shall we say, very limited at this point when looked at in context of an election more than 18 months away.

So the newest Public Policy Polling survey is really an exercise in amusement.

But from it we can derive this question - is former Gov. Jeb Bush the only person who has a real chance of defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?

Crowley Political Report says the answer is "yes" and "no."

Certainly if Bush gets into the race it would be a nightmare for Nelson. It would also be a nightmare for every GOP candidate remotely thinking about running.

Adam Hasner's Florida Senate campaign gets a boost

Republican Florida Congressman Connie Mack announced he is not going to run for the U.S. Senate.

Yawn.

His reason - family. Oh and he's already very influential in Congress.

"I've got two small children and it's hard enough to get to spend a lot of good quality time now. I have a wife. They are all very important to me and at the end of the day family has to be number one,'' Mack told the St. Petersburg Times.

Of course.

This is good new for former state Rep. Adam Hasner. With Senate President Mike Haridopolos already blundering and former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux still on the sidelines, Hasner could quickly become a leading contender.

Hasner is pushing hard right apparently counting on winning strong support from Tea Party activists. Hasner is also likely to benefit from supporting Marco Rubio for the U.S. Senate long before most people thought Rubio had a chance of winning.

It's early and much will happen in the month to come - but today Hasner seems to have gained the most from Mack's decision.

LeMieux needs to make his intentions known soon. And Haridopolos needs to give back that $152,000 he got for that bogus book and deeply apologize. It would be a small price to pay if doing so salvaged his candidacy.

It is going to be a very interesting Republican primary.

 

Mike Haridopolos already a failed candidate for U.S. Senate

 

Sure it may seem preposterous to declare a candidate dead long before the race to be Florida's next U.S. senator has really gotten underway but Crowley Political Report can give you 152,000 reasons.

Really Mike what were you thinking? If someone is going to pay you $152,000 to write a book, it better be one helluva a book.

Florida Legislative History and Process is not one helluva book. It is one helluva taxpayer ripoff. Yup, you paid for the book - and I'll bet you don't even have a copy.

Back to the orignial premise - Haridopolos' campaign for U.S. Senate is toast.

Haridopolos $152,000 book now available on Amazon

Yup.  You too can be the proud owner of Senate President Mike Haridopolos' $152,000 book about the Florida Legislature.

You can now buy an electronic version for just $9.99 on Amazon.

Brevard Community College is offering this text that is so rare there is only one copy. And the school would like you to know that the book is available "worldwide."

Worldwide? Crowley Political Report had no idea there was such demand.

Let's see at $9.99 per electronic book (you download it on Kindle), the college only needs to sell 15,200 to break even.

A bad morning for Haridopolos but a great paycheck

There is so much wrong with this that it is hard to believe that there is any possible good explanation.

Brendan Farrington of the AP Tallahassee bureau does a great job reporting on a very odd deal between Senate President Mike Haridopolos and Brevard Community College.

In brief, Haridopolos got paid $152,000 to write a book titled Florida Legislative History and Processes.

Farrington writes that the book is light on content, has errors and - are you ready for this - there is exactly one copy.

One copy.

Really. $152,000 for one copy.  Maybe he signed it.

None of this bodes well for Haridopolos who has just launched his campaign to be the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate.  You can already start writing the ad.

And of course, it makes Brevard Community College look like a bunch of idiots - at best.

Read Farrington's story here.

Rick Scott derails a woman's dream.

 

 A woman called eager to chat. She was starting a new business that would be tied to Florida's new High Speed Rail train that would run from Tampa to Orlando and she wanted some advice.

My next message from her was she couldn't talk. She was distraught. Florida Gov. Rick Scott had just announced that the Sunshine State was bailing out of the rail business.

A day later, the woman called again. She still hopes the high speed rail will happen. She still plans to go ahead with a business plan. Only this time with far less certainty.

The fact is that if Scott believes building a high speed rail in Florida is bad for the state than he is right to do what he did. But an awful lot of folks think he is wrong - and not all of them have a financial stake in the outcome.

Mike Haridopolos should thank Rick Scott

 
There is much gnashing going on in Tallahassee over the question of whether Senate President Mike Haridopolos should raise money for his U.S. Senate campaign during the 60-day legislative session.

The answer - Yes.  But with one condition. Haridopolos should make disclosures each day of the session about the amont of money he has received and from whom.

The fact of the matter is that whether a candidate receives money during the session is largely irrelevant.  Honest politicians will be honest. Crooks will cheat, steal and lie.

What is needed is full disclosure and Haradopolos could lead the way by expanding disclosure requirements.

Florida political campaigns were forever changed by Rick Scott.  He is not the first rich guy to spend his own money to run for public office but no one has been willing to spend anywhere near as much of his own dough as Scott did - a whopping $75 million.