Crowley Political Report

Rick Perry decides to stick it out in South Carolina and Florida

BREAKING NEWS - Multiple news sources are saying that Rick Perry has decided to stay in the race for Republican presidential nomination.

Crowley Political Report and a gazillion other twitter followers of Perry received this tweet just a few minutes ago: @GovernorPerry: And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State...Here we come South Carolina!!!

This has caused the Twitter world to go wild.

At this point the talk is that Perry will participate in the upcoming New Hampshire debates but focus his energy on South Carolina and Florida.

Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann quit and Ron Paul remains persistant. 

What will it mean with Perry staying in the race? The hunch here - Perry believes he will have the money to compete in Florida and steal the nomination from Mitt Romney. And where does this leave Rick Santorum?

Newt Gingrich, Tea Party and why Mitt Romney may lose Florida

Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest. 

In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.

That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.

But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich.  The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters."   Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.

Why?

Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.

Those folks are not going to vote for Romney.

 

Here's the Q Poll trendline:

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

                     Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 22  Aug 04

                     2011      2011       2011      2011

 

Perry                 4       5      28      13

Gingrich         35      17       7       4

Romney          22      21      22      23

Bachmann        4       4       5       6

Santorum          2       1       2       1

Paul                     8       3       6       9

Huntsman         2       1       2       1

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Michele Bachmann goes where the boys are

Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann is in South Florida this evening where she will hold a press conference in Fort Lauderdale.

From the campaign press release:

Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann will host a press availability to discuss her campaign, the economy, and immigration today at the Westin Hotel in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. This event is open to credentialed media only.

Learn more about the 1960 movie that put Fort Lauderdale on the map.

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Herman Cain struggles, Perry fights back and AFSCME takes on Allen West

Not that was a great Republican debate. And for those dummies out there who think the squabbling was a CNN plot - please turn in your voter card.

Crowley Political Report was among the first to note that Herman Cain's 9 9 9  plan would result in a 15 percent sales tax in Florida - the very state that propelled Cain to the top of the heap by giving him a stunning victory in the Presidency 5 straw ballot.

Cain did a decent job fighting back during the debate but for the first 20 minutes he was pounded by his rivals for the GOP nomination. 

Early prediction - the sales tax aspect is going to hurt Cain. He can't explain it in a 30-second ad but his opponents can scare the hell out of voters with it in less than 30 seconds.

Rick Perry showed that he in fact does have a pulse. And watching him and Mitt Romney left the clear impression that they will not be running mates.  Perry was stronger than in previous debates but he still stepped on his lines and at times seemed out of it.

Romney started taking on the petulant tone of someone who thought the nomination would be easier this time.  When he asked Anderson Cooper to step in and help stop Perry from interrupting, Romney looked like the kid running to his daddy.

Michelle Bachmann proved once again that she is willing to say any ole outrageous thing just to get attention.

And while Rick Santorum had his best night, he still reminds us why Pennsylvania voters tossed him out of office.

Oh, and Ron Paul was there still collecting his paycheck from that evil federal government that has supported him since 1976.  We hear it's now a family business. Gosh, wonder when that will appear in an ad.

Florida GOP Congressman Allen West did not attend the debate but Florida viewers may have been surprised to see this ad during a the festivities:

 

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Florida GOP thanks Rick Perry for breakfast votes for Herman Cain

 Herman Cain whooped Rick Perry soundly in Florida Republican Party straw poll Saturday leaving one critical question - Does the Florida GOP still exist or is it now the Florida Tea Party?

Cain - the Godfather's pizza guy. Mr. 9-9-9.

He left Perry drowning in tomato sauce. Cain got 37 percent of the more than 2,500 votes cast. Perry got 15 percent. Romney, who decided not to participate in Presidency 5, got 14 percent.

The sad candidacy of the strident, anti-everything Rick Santorum got nearly 11 percent followed by his political twin, Ron Paul at a tad over 10 percent.

Poor Perry. His swaggering Texas image crumbles in every debate. The delegates may have been disappointed when Perry looked lost at Thursday's CPAC debate, but by golly he bought them breakfast.

Perry told them they were important. He said Florida was important. Shucks,  Presidency 5 was supposed to be a major jumping off point for the Perry campaign.

Is Perry doomed?

No.

Is Cain going to be the GOP nominee?

No.

Will the Sunday talk shows go on and on and on about this with dire warnings that Perry better get his act together? (Note: think Ames, Iowa and Michele Bachmann).

Yes.

Does anybody at this point really understand what is going on with Florida Republicans?

No.

Is the Florida Republican Party being taken over by the Tea Party?

Yes.

And who is the leader of the Florida Tea Party?

Gov. Rick Scott.

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It's getting very cloudy for Obama in the Sunshine State

If President Obama loses Florida in 2012, his presidency will be over.  A new Quinnipiac Poll is echoing what many Sunshine State Democrats are saying privately - Obama is losing his Florida support.

One Florida Democratic leader told Crowley Political Report that he has never been this discouraged. A party fundraiser grits his teeth and warns that Obama better start spending some quality time in Florida. Out of loyality, they did not want to named complaining about the president.

Republicans are almost giddy. As they flock to Orlando for Presidency 5 and the CPAC gathering, the party faithful are convinced that Obama is a one-term president. For Republicans the biggest quandry is which candidate they want to see in the White House.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made an impressive showing with a group of about 30 party leaders and elected officials in West Palm Beach. Palm Beach County chairman Sid Dinerstein, who insists he is remaining neutral, was clearly charmed by Perry.

"I like what he has to say and he really listens," said Dinerstein.

The only dark moment came when Perry's goons, otherwise known as Texas Rangers, shut down the Kravis Center property to the media. The Kravis center has hosted scores of national political figures and the shut down was unprecedented.

One Ranger threatened to have a television reporter handcuffed if he tried to go the normal media staging area.  It was an unnecessary bullying tactic since Perry was using a back interest to enter the event site and was nowhere near the media. In fact, all Perry's folks accomplished was making it difficult for the TV stations to do interviews with guests who were praising the governor.

Brilliant advance work guys.

Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac Poll found that "Florida voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state."

No wonder Republicans are excited and Democrats are in a funk.

And here's the really bad news for the White House - "Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 – 41 percent." 

Here's a closer look at the Quinnipiac Poll (the results include the Florida U.S. Senate race):

Dole wins, another Texan fails and Pat Buchanan saves his surprise

Once again, Florida's GOP voters confronted a choice of an establishment Republican, a conservative Texan and a hard right extremist. But instead of Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, PresidencyIII delegates were choosing among Bob Dole, Phil Gramm and Pat Buchanan.

The November 1995, straw ballot was a bitter battle between Kansas Sen. Dole, Texas Sen. Gramm and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander.  Dole, who first ran for president in 1980, desperately needed to win Presidency III to shore up support for his campaign.

There were 3,325 voting delegates and the halls were intense as the candidates pushed hard to win votes. When the voting was over, it was Dole 33, Gramm 26 and Alexander 23.  

Dole's weak victory cast a long shadow over his campaign. Gramm and Alexander both pushed the idea that Dole could not win the nomination and that if he did he could defeat incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton.

Gramm tried to convince national party leaders that Dole's less than 40 percent showing was a terrible performance by a perceived frontrunner. Indeed it was. But there was little interest in either Gramm or Alexander when the campaign moved to the Iowa caucuses.

Dole won Iowa getting 26 percent of the vote. Buchanan, who thrived in the dark side of gutter politics, shocked the political world by coming in second with 23 percent. Alexander was third with 18 percent. Gramm was fifth (and done) with 9 percent to Steve Forbes 10 percent.

Crowley Political Report had one of its coldest nights in New Hampshire watching a Dole, torchlight parade of supporters. It was a very cold primary for Dole who was stunned by Buchanan who won New Hampshire with 27 percent of the vote to Dole's 26 percent. Alexander finished third with 22 percent.

It was Buchanan's last hurrah and Dole would go on to easily become the nominee. Dole would live up to the fears of Gramm and Alexander by being an awful general election candidate.

What will be the big surprise at Presidency 5, this weekend? We'll soon find out.

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Why Florida should move its presidential primary ahead of New Hampshire

So Florida has finally appointed a committee to decide when the Sunshine State should have its presidential primary.  These fine folks will give us their decision by Oct. 1.

What should Florida do. Well let's have some real fun and have the primary Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011.

The very thought of this would drive the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire nuts. Both states insist that their events must take place before any other state.

Every four years, bigger, more important state such as Florida, wonder why they continue to let Iowa and New Hampshire bully them. And every four years they cave.

State law in  New Hampshire requires the Granite state to have its reality show, we mean primary, at a week before any other state primary.  So they would be forced to move their primary to November.  Iowa would have to make a similar move.

While this would cause great consternation withing the Republican National Committee, such a move would finally break the stranglehold that Iowa and New Hampshire have on the nation's politics.

Crowley Political Report discussed the issue at some length in February.  Let's revisit what we said then.

 
 
February 21, 2011

Really, Crowley Political Report loves New Hampshire.

Since 1980, CPR has spent many a cold winter night in the Granite State chasing presidential candidates and chatting with countless "Live Free or Die" residents.

There isn't a town or hamlet that has not been visited. Living there has been an occassional fantasy.

Unfortunately, New Hampshire has become a spoiled brat, clinging desperately to the notion that they alone must first determine who is the proper presidential nominee for the Republican and Democratic parties.

It is a quaint notion.

New Hampshire's primary has nothing to do with selecting presidents. Their record of soothesaying was pretty good for many years. But no longer.

Consider - in 1996 New Hampshire voters picked Pat Buchanan to be the GOP presidential nominee. In 2000, they picked John McCain. Ditto 2008. Among Democrats, they passed over Bill Clinton in 1992 and Barack Obama in 2008.

New Hampshire's primary is a helluva lot fun. It's like going to political carnival. All the acts are there, easy to see and hear. You can go as often as you like and admission is almost always free. In fact, candidates wandering Elm Street in Manchester are more abundant than circus clowns at Ringling.

Rick Perry plans strong presence at Florida Presidency 5

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is "all in" for this month's Presidency 5 Straw Poll, according to the St. Petersburg Times.

"Gov. Perry is fully committed to participating in P5," said Perry campaign spokesman Ray Sullivan. "The governor is committed to working hard for the vote in Florida. We have the beginnings of a very good organization in Florida and believe the governor's message will win support in Florida."

Perry is also planning a fundraising blitz throughout Florida leading up to the start of Presidency 5 as Crowley Political Report noted in an earlier report.

Of course the immediate speculation is whether Perry's comments about Social Security will alienate Florida's older voters. 

Ever since Perry upped the ante by pushing even harder against Social Security during Wednesday's debate, commentators have said that Perry's description  of the program as a "Ponzi scheme" and a "monstrous lie" could hurt him.

On Friday, the Morning Joe roundtable was still questioning Perry's remarks with Joe Scarborough asking if Perry wants to end Social Security entirely.

Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann have shown less interest in Presidency 5 but with Perry making a push it will behoove them to embrace the Florida Republican Party's 3,500 delegates. Ignore them now, and it could hurt Bachmann and Romney in next year's critical Florida primary.

Why? Because these are the activists who help turn out the vote.

More on Rick Perry's Presidency 5 decision on the St. Pete Times Buzz.

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Michele Bachmann, Tea Party and those damn airbags

One has to delight in the silliness of Tea Party politics which brings a rigidity to political discourse that should be interesting to watch during the September debates and Florida Republican convention.

We begin the new month with an interesting anniversary. On Sept. 1, 1998, Congress made it mandatory for cars to have airbags. This came 32 years after Congress required automakers to install seatbelts.

This anniversary could unhinge some members of the Tea Party who fervently believe that nearly anything the federal government does is wrong.

Their titular leader, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, may even take on the cause. After all, Bachmann has made fighting for the right to own incandescent bulbs a hallmark of her bid to win the Republican nomination for president.

Mandatory airbags were a result of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act passed by Congress in 1991.  It went into effect on Sept. 1, 1998. 

The ISTEA was passed overwhelmingly. The final conference bill passed the House 372-47.  The Senate approved it 79-8. An interesting side note - both Florida senators at the time, Democrat Bob Graham and Republican Connie Mack - voted against the bill.

What would happen if the airbag bill was being proposed today? Would this be seen as an unnecessary intrusion by the federal government? Would Tea Party supporters rally in congressional districts to fight the proposal?

Would Bachmann add airbags to her light bulb repetoire?

September brings us the Florida GOP's important and not-to-miss, Presidency 5. During the three-day event, which starts Sept. 22, thousands of Florida Republicans will hear from the presidenital candidates.  Those same delegates will then vote in a straw poll.

Presidency 5 begins with a debate hosted by FOX News and a simultaneous event hosted by CPAC will feature speechs by the candidates.

Watch carefully. During that weekend Florida's 4 million Republicans will learn what type of party they have become.

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What do Florida Republicans think of Michele Bachmann?

In June, Crowley Political Report noted Michele Bachmann's entry into the Republican presidential primary with this thought: Michele Bachmann could be a huge pain for other Republican candidates in Florida's 2012 presidential primary.

 That premise will be test this weekend when the Minnesota congresswoman campaigns in Jacksonville Beach, Poinciana, Lutz, Orlando and Sarasota.

Bachmann begins her Florida swing Friday at Angie's Sub Shop in Jacksonville Beach. On Saturday, she will have an invitation only gathering at the Poinciana Town Hall. That evening she goes to Orlando to speak at an awards dinner of the Florida Family Policy Council.

On Sunday, Bachmann will attend services at Idlewild Baptist Church in Lutz which is north of Tampa. After that, she will attend a rally hosted by the Sarasota County Republican Party.

This is Bachmann's first major campaign swing through Florida. It suggests that she is going to try to win next year's Florida presidential primary. As we said in June, if she can raise the money, Bachmann may find exactly the voters she needs in the Sunshine State to make her a serious contender for the nomination.

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1.5 million reasons why you are not gonna win the Florida GOP primary

Sure it is a nice fantasy.

After a stunning win in New Hampshire - or a damn close second -  you swing into South Carolina and continue to build momentum that takes you to the first true test of your ability to win a national campaign - Florida.

Well you better be showing up with a fat wallet.

Unless you are well-financed candidate - say a Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, or, if she can raise the money from her many loyal fans, Michele Bachmann, the odds are very long for a candidate arriving in the Sunshine State without enough cash.

Consider this would be nominee - $1.5 million. Actually it could be a bit more. That's the cost of one week of television ads in Florida's media markets. That's not counting direct mail, radio, web, and get-out-the-vote efforts.

So welcome to the Sunshine State - expect to spend a minimum of $2 million. And if you really want to win Florida, you need to start spending more time here - now.

Remember - when the snow settles in New Hampshire and the last extremist in the Palmetto State has voted, everyone will quickly forget what took place there. The Republican nominee will be decided in Florida.

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Art by West Palm Beach artist Patrick Crowley