Crowley Political Report

A view of the Obama campaign through the eye of New York Times photographer Stephen Crowley

Family concerns resulted in a bit of a hiatus for Crowley Political Report.  So it seems appropriate to re-enter the fray with the family.  Today, the New York Times has a great photo essay of President Obama's recent campaign trip to California and Washington.  The photos are by Crowley Political Report's favorite photographer - Stephen Crowley.

Stephen is a unique talent. Yes, I know, he is my brother and you would expect me to say that. But here is what James Estrin wrote about Stephen in 2010:

Stephen Crowley has spent most of his career masquerading as a newspaper photographer while producing idiosyncratic projects that push the boundaries of photojournalism and reveal unvarnished truths behind his most frequent subject: Washington politics.

Mr. Crowley, a staff photographer for The New York Times, consistently takes risks in his photography. He was employing complex compositions in newspaper photography long before the style became trendy.

In his political photographs, Mr. Crowley shows his Washington subjects warts and all. In personal projects like “Urban Archaeology” and “Crowleygraphs,” his black-and-white images are elegant and precise. Sometimes, he combines the political and personal in diptychs andtetraptychs, adding a sharp sense of irony.

“Washington is all artifice and show business — even more so today than when I started,” Mr. Crowley said. “There is a lot to be upset about these days, and there are a lot of people to hold accountable in media and politics. I think there is a thread of humor through my work, and humor is just a form of anger, if you think about it.”

Read more here.  And see his Obama photo essay here. 

Stephen has not just covered Washington politics. He has traveled the world for the Times, from tiny village to war zones. Everywhere he goes, he photographs tell a story that no one else does.

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What the Times/Herald Republican poll didn't tell you

Crowley Political Report takes a closer look at this weekend's Times/Herald Republican presidential campaign poll for Columbia Journalism Review. The polls stories were written by Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith and Miami Herald political writer Marc Caputo. Some excerpts from the CJR report:

Both reporters went to considerable length to describe the complexities of the campaign and the reasons for Romney’s apparent resurgence and Gingrich’s apparent slide. Where they failed, however, is in what they did not report.

Newspaper polling (and the coverage of such polling) has long been a pet peeve of mine. Smith, Caputo and others with whom I worked as a political reporter have been subjected to my railing about newspaper polls countless times.

In Caputo’s and Smith’s stories, there is a clear example of what is wrong with newspaper polls and the coverage thereof. Both reporters wrote that their poll showed that Romney has a 24-point lead over Gingrich among Hispanic voters—52 to 28 percent. But readers were not told important details about these numbers. I interviewed Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research who conducted the poll for the newspapers. He said the survey of 500 registered, likely voting, Republicans included just 75 Hispanics. Of those 75 Hispanics surveyed, the number consisted “heavily” of Cuban Americans who live in Miami-Dade county.

Now, the argument can be made that Miami-Dade Cuban Americans will be the overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters in the Florida primary, as Caputo explains in his story. But neither Caputo nor Smith tells readers that their Hispanic survey is, in fact, not a comprehensive look at Florida Hispanic voters. Coker told me that if he were doing a detailed survey of Hispanics he would have surveyed 400 not 75.

Once you realize that the survey sample is 75, it begs the next question: What is the margin of error? The Times and Herald reported that the margin of error for the 500 Republicans surveyed was 4.5 percent. True. But what they did not tell readers was the margin of error for the 75 Hispanic voters surveyed, which Coker told me was plus or minus 12 percent. That means that the percentage of Hispanics who support Romney ranges from 40 percent to 64 percent and the percentage supporting Gingrich ranges from 16 percent to 40 percent.

What does it really mean? That there is little statistical value in the number of Hispanics surveyed. This is a common problem when news organizations report subgroups in their polls. Often the numbers surveyed are too small to reveal any meaningful information.

. . . 

Another problem is that neither the Times nor the Herald released its complete polling results with questions and crosstabs (the Times posted poll questions online). While print news holes may be too small, there is no reason not to post all of this information on the newspaper websites. The timing of the release is also problematic. The poll was conducted during the period of January 24-26. The results were not released on the newspaper websites until very late on Saturday, January 28. The results then appeared in the Sunday paper, three days after the survey was completed. Pollsters will tell you there is simply too much volatility that close to an election to hold on to poll results for three days. Even voters surveyed on the 24th could have changed their opinion by the 25th.

. . .

News organizations are getting increasingly sloppy with reporting on—and addressing the shortcomings of—their own polls, not to mention asking tough questions of all the other polls that seem to pop up every day.

The National Council on Public Polls offers 20 questions journalists should ask about poll results. Let’s ask them.

You can read the entire Columbia Journalism Review report here.

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Florida newspapers and the mystery of Sheldon Adelson

Who is Sheldon Adelson, and why does he matter to the presidential campaign? If you are a Florida voter and rely on your local newspaper for your information, you likely have no clue. Yet Adelson is likely to be—along with his wife, Dr. Miriam Adelson—one of the most important figures in determining who will win the January 31 Florida Republican primary.

That is the start of new Columbia Journalism Review story by Crowley Political Report. 

Other excepts:

This is a moment when Florida voters should be able to look to their news organizations to dissect the attack ads they’re seeing and hearing, explore who is paying for these ads (to the extent it can be known, an admitted challenge) and, perhaps, why they’re paying, and to offer a primer on super PACs and the complex new world of campaign spending.

So far, from my reading and watching, Florida’s news organizations have largely fallen short.

Does Rick Santorum have a snowball's chance in Florida

This week, Florida celebrated the 35th anniversary of a very snowy day that reached all the way down to South Florida. Which got Crowley Political Report wondering - does Rick Santorum have a snowball's chance of winning the Sunshine State Republican primary?

Santorum has become a bit of a hard luck candidate.

Imagine what the pundits would have been saying before New Hampshire if Iowa had been able to count the votes correctly.

He would have been the candidate of the hour. Yup, the talking heads would have made more of a 34-vote Santorum win than an 8-vote Romney win. Santorum winning would have been big news. Losing by 8 votes - not so much.

And, as much as Santorum has tried, he has simply been unable to catch the imagination of CNN, MSNBC, FOX and the others. 

He is ponderous in debates and often comes across as a nerd with a temper. He has neither the faux-presidential demeanor of Mitt Romney nor the quick mind and acid tongue of Newt Gringrich.

The past 12 months have been an incredible time for professional commentators - they have got almost nothing right. So who knows what surprises are in store. 

Voters are feeling uncertain and ornery. And now, perhaps a bit weary and depressed. None of the candidates has been particularly inspiring to their fellow Republicans. 

After Thursday night's debate, Santorum got little attention. Most of the focus was on Gingrich for brushing back CNN's John King over questions about Gringrich's relationship with an ex-wife. Some commentators compared the moment to Ronald Reagan's famous outburst - "I am paying for this microphone Mr. Green" - at the 1980 Nashua Telegraph debate.

Crowley Political Report was at the Reagan debate with George H.W. Bush. Reagan was much better than Gingrich. Judge for yourself below.

But first, back to the question - does Santorum have a snowball's chance in Florida? Yes. But the snow didn't last on the ground for more than a few hours in 1977, and Santorum may have to push past either Gingrich or Mitt Romney in South Carolina if he doesn't want to melt here.

(Note: in the video Reagan says Mr. Green. The moderator's name was actually Jon Breen.)

 

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Sometimes the news media just gets carried away

Crowley Political Report, as part of our ongoing examination of media coverage of the Florida presidential campaign for Columbia Journalism Review, took a look at news reporting about Mitt Romney's visit to Florida this week.

Some excerpts:

Romney spoke for a bit more than 15 minutes. Toss in another 15 minutes of shaking hands, and Romney spent a mere 30 minutes on public view—none of it particularly newsworthy.

But the armada of media on hand would have led viewers and readers to believe that this was not just a major Republican campaign event, but the political event of the campaign. Romney’s relatively brief visit to Florida, which also included two closed-press fundraisers on the island of Palm Beach, was greeted with print, web, and broadcast stories the day before his arrival and breathless coverage during his visit.

...

Did Romney deserve this extensive coverage? As the leading presidential candidate, someone widely presumed to be the likely nominee, Romney has earned a higher level of scrutiny.

But were readers and viewers well served? Much of the coverage was superficial or even cheerleading.

...

That leads to a final question—would other candidates have received the same attention? Maybe. While news organizations have often seemed befuddled over the last year in trying to figure out who the leading candidates were at any given moment, today there is more clarity. Votes have been cast. Reporters know who has the needed money and other resources to campaign successfully in a large state such as Florida. So news organizations can make better judgments.

But if Florida news organizations have made the decision that Romney deserves extraordinary coverage, then they need to make sure that coverage includes an equally in-depth look at Romney’s views about issues important to Floridians—housing and foreclosures, Florida’s deep unemployment, severe cuts to the space program, relationships with Cuba and Haiti, and oil drilling off Florida’s coast are just a few examples.

Assignment editors and reporters should remember that it is not up to the candidate to make the news. You can find it yourself.

Read the entire report which high praise for work done by the Sun Sentinel and Miami Herald.

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Florida newspapers did a dismal job of reporting about Iowa caucus

Crowley Political Report took a look at Florida newspaper front pages on Wednesday morning and found that overall the newspapers were unimaginative and did a dismal job for their readers.

It was especially surprising to see the Orlando Sentinel and Sun-Sentinel front pages which were used simply to point readers to their inside pages to find a story about Iowa.

We explored Florida's Iowa coverage for Columbia Journal Review. Some excerpts: 

By the end of this month, the contest for the Republican presidential nomination will move to the Sunshine State, so you might think that readers here had a particular interest in the outcome of this week’s Iowa caucuses.

If so, they weren’t well-served by the state’s newspapers. A look at a dozen Florida front pages from Wednesday showed that nearly all relied on The Associated Press or their parent companies’ Washington bureaus to report the results from Iowa. 

Two of state’s major papers gave particularly short shrift to the caucus results. Both the Orlando Sentinel and the Sun-Sentinel played stories about Iowa inside their Wednesday morning editions. The Sun-Sentinel teased from a small front-page box to 3A, the Orlando Sentinel from the front-page mast to A17.

The late hour when the caucus was finally called for Mitt Romney may have had something to do with those decisions—and the Sun-Sentinel also directed print readers to its website—but the papers’ coverage was not any more impressive online.

Both newspapers are part of the Tribune chain, and it was surprising to see how their next-day coverage treated the caucuses as a minor event. The newspapers seemed to be telling readers that they knew they simply could not compete with late results and overwhelming television and web coverage.

Around much of the state the coverage was similarly uninspired, the headlines unimaginative and predictable:

“Down to the wire in Iowa” - Bradenton Herald and Daytona Beach News-Journal

“Photo finish in Iowa” - Sun-Sentinel, “A photo finish for GOP” - Miami Herald, and “GOP photo finish in Iowa” - Tampa Tribune.

There was a “Dead heat in chilly Iowa” - Naples Daily News and a “Deadlock in Iowa” -The Palm Beach Post

As the Columbia Journalism Report story continues, we exam how other Florida newspapers looked on Wednesday morning and what some of them did on Thursday morning.

Read the rest of the story here and see which newspaper did the best job.

 

New media, Rick Santorum, Iowa and tiny dinosaur brains

 You couldn't help but laugh when Republican political operative Mike Murphy offered this comment during Sunday's Meet the Press when he was asked what will happen if Rick Santorum does well in the Iowa caucuses.

 "The media works like Jurassic Park dinosaurs, 30 feet tall, huge teeth, with all due respect, not always the biggest brain, and it follows movement," said Murphy. "And when it sees movement, Rick Santorum, it stomps over there and tries to eat Rick Santorum. And that's what next week is going to be like."

 You gotta love Murphy. He can spin the hell out of you and be combative but Murphy is always fun to be around and he often knows what he is talking about.

Crowley Political Report first met Murphy in New Hampshire in 1996 when the then 34-year old was the mastermind behind the plaid-shirt wearing campaign of Lamar Alexander.  Poor Lamar failed in 1996 and again four years later but for Murphy it helped kick-off his career as a Republican media master.

Murphy helped Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and others become governors. He has had less luck with presidential campaigns. Still, politics has made Murphy a rich man and he remains a shrewd observer of the media.

His dinosaur comment was a brilliant observation - especially of the past year's coverage of the presidential campaign where the national media lurched from one candidate to the other often on the thinnest evidence of viability.

Michele Bachmann became a serious candidate because of the Ames, Iowa straw vote. Really? 

Was Herman Cain really a viable candidate or did the polls simple reflect the new direction of the thundering herd of dinosaurs stomping in his direction?

And now, of course, everyone is simply shocked that anyone in Iowa is paying attention to Rick Santorum?

And poor Newt Gingrich, will the thundering herd head his way again?

After the caucus results are in, we'll find out quickly which way the dinosaurs are heading.

Which brings me to New Media. Warning: if all you are doing is following the dinosaur herd, you are not really adding to the conversation, you're just making stomping noises.

 

 

Mike Bender leaves St. Petersburg Times for Bloomberg

Mike Bender has left the Tampa Bay Times, aka St. Petersburg Times to join Bloomberg's new Tallahassee bureau.

Best is one of the best reporters in Tallahassee and his move to Bloomberg is big loss for the Times.

Bender is in New York where he is spending the week with Bloomberg editors. At first, Bender will be the only reporter in the new Bloomberg Tallahassee bureau but he expects the news organization to add staff.

Bloomberg also has a bureau in Miami.

"I'll be covering state government and politics," Bender, 34,  told Crowley Political Report. "And, I'll be doing enterprise reporting."

Bender will be back in Tallahassee on Monday.  If you are not following Bloomberg now, Bender is good reason to start.

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Christmas gifts for the GOP candidates from Mark Foley, Ken Pruitt and more

FlDemocracy2012.com, a creation of Florida's Scripps newspapers and televsion stations, asked a variety of Florida politcal types what they would give the Republican presidential candidates for Christmas.

The answers ranged from quite serious to ponderous to hillarious. Among those participating: Former Florida Senate President Ken Pruitt, former U.S. Reps. Tim Mahoney and Mark Foley, GOP political consultant Chris Ingram, Senate President Mike Haridopolos, USF Professor Wayne Garcia, and others.

A couple of their responses:

Former Florida Senate President Ken Pruitt (R): “I would give each one of the candidates a dove, representing peace, love and kindness, which is what we’re all going to need during this political season.”

Former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL):  “That in the spirit of the holidays, Romney accidentally drinks spiked egg nog and admits it. That in his new role as a Catholic, Newt Gingrich abstains from lecturing the baby Jesus that Bethlehem was an invented location. That someone tells Bachmann that Hanukkah isn’t special bread you make French toast with. That someone explains to Rick Santorum that he doesn’t actually have to pretend he lives in Iowa after the caucuses.”

Read what others had to say here.

Note: Crowley Political Report does political analysis for WPTV NewChannel 5, a Scripps station.

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Republican presidential candidates lock out Florida media

Crowley Political Report has joined Columbia Journalism Review in its effort to monitor media coverage during the 2012 campaign. These reports can be found at CJR's campaign desk.

Our first report for CJR explored whether the media was fair to Herman Cain during a Florida campaign trip.

In our latest report, we explored the problems Florida's political writers are confronting as they report on Florida's presidential primary. 

By Brian E. Crowley - for Columbia Journalism Review

FROZEN OUT IN FLORIDA

 Florida’s political reporters are a lonely bunch. Presidential candidates avoid them. Senior campaign staffers rarely return their calls or emails. In fact, it is hard to believe that the state’s January 31 presidential primary is less than seven weeks away.

Sure, the Republican candidates have been to Florida. But most of their trips here have involved private fundraisers with an occasional public event. And one thing they almost never do is take questions from reporters.

“There is no access whatsoever,” says Adam Smith, veteran political editor of the St. Petersburg Times.

Marc Caputo left the Miami Herald’s Tallahassee Bureau earlier this year to become the newspaper’s political writer. Since he took on the job, Caputo says, it has been “impossible” to get access to a presidential candidate’s senior campaign staff—never mind the candidate.

And the challenge of reduced access to candidates and campaigns—new this election cycle—is compounded by a more familiar, widespread challenge: shrinking newsroom budgets.

Smaller budgets, in turn, often means less campaign travel, both in-state and beyond. William March, the longtime political writer for the Tampa Tribune, says that while he used to travel the state to attend candidate events, he now rarely leaves the Tampa Bay area.

Even at the Herald, once a trendsetter of political reporting, Caputo says, “it’s tough” to get the paper to pay for travel, although he expects that to improve as the Florida primary draws closer.

Was the media fair during Herman Cain's Florida visit?

Crowley Political Report has joined Columbia Journalism Review in its effort to monitor media coverage during the 2012 campaign.

Today, CPR wrote about the media's reporting on Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain's visit to Florida.

Was it fair? Did the coverage say something about the media?

We look at Cain being questioned about the "wet foot, dry foot" immigration policy toward Cubans, his question about speaking "Cuban,"  and how the media reacted.

An excerpt:

Eleven seconds. That’s how long the exchange lasted between Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain and Miami Herald political reporter Marc Caputo during a campaign swing through South Florida last week.

During a multi-city visit that took Cain to a senior center in Sweetwater, Miami’s Little Havana, Coral Springs, West Palm Beach and Palm Beach, the most newsworthy moment, judging by the resulting press coverage, occurred in those 11 seconds.

While in Sweetwater walking toward the senior center, Caputo, his video camera aimed at Cain, said to the candidate, “I want to ask you about, do you mind, about Cuba, about your Cuba policy, what you think about the wet-foot, dry-foot policy?”

Cain, looking and sounding puzzled, answered, “The wet-foot, dry-foot policy?”

...

...while the Florida media did a good job of  capturing the entirety of Cain’s Florida trip, media outside the state often took the easy way out: grabbing the tidbit about speaking “Cuban” and/or the “wet-foot, dry-foot” exchanges, both of which served to confirm the (again, not unfounded) media narrative that Candidate Cain does not have a good grasp of things foreign policy. That became the story —We’ve confirmed our hunch, again! Our work here is done. The episode may have revealed something about Cain, but the way it was covered revealed as much about the media.

Please read the complete Columbia Journalism Report here.

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Art by Patrick Crowley

St. Pete Times, Miami Herald may sign exclusive deal with Mason Dixon poll

Florida's political polling landscape is changing with an expected announcement that the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald will sign a 5-year deal with Mason Dixon to do exclusive polling for the newspapers.

The Times/Herald already works closely in providing their readers with coverage of the 2012 elections. The news organizations also combined their Tallahassee bureaus.

The newspapers have long done joint polling, usually using two pollsters - one Republican, one Democratic.

Sources tell Crowley Political Report that the agreement will allow for more polling throughout the year giving Florida readers a deeper snapshot of issues, campaigns, and voters.

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Can Herman Cain be the next Bill Clinton?

Women love Bill Clinton. Even after Clinton wagged his finger at the television camera and angrily said, "I did not have sex with that woman."

Even after they watched Chelsea walk between her parents as they headed toward Marine One, the presidential helicopter.

When it was all over, Clinton made a trip to Miami. After his speech, women rushed the rope line to shake his hand and be close to him.

Why? Crowley Political Report has asked that question of many women over the years. They smile. They agree what Clinton did was wrong. 

But they like him and they are willing to ignore his sexual transgressions.

So far, Herman Cain has not been accused of anything nearly as severe as the misconduct of Bill Clinton.

Cain has steadfastedly denied doing anything wrong.  The women who have come forward have, at this point, largely accused Cain of the kind of boorish behavior often committed by a 14-year old.

Two of the women,  Karen Kraushaar and Sharon Bialek, are preparing to have a joint press conference to talk more about their allegations. Other women may join them.

Cain says they are liars.

Someone is lying.

The fact is, that while Cain denies the accusations and supporters defend him, the questions will linger - even if he becomes the GOP nominee. Even if he becomes the next president.

What his campaign must calculate now, is whether Cain will be granted the same political immunity that was given to Bill Clinton.

Will women voters feel the same way about Cain as they did Clinton?

And do women voters need to hear from Cain's wife, before they make a decision about Cain?

What would Bill do?

Of course there is one major difference between Bill and Herman.  Clinton was accused of consensual relations with other women.  Cain is being accused of unwanted behavior.

 

 

Will Republican delegates pick Jeb Bush to be the nominee?

By mid-morning, the folks on Morning Joe seemed to have a little had too much caffeine. It started with Joe Scarborough and Michael Steele talking about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention.

This led them to fantasy land, where the dispirited delegates would rise up and proclaim that Jeb Bush should, no, MUST, be the party nominee.

Chants and shouts would ring through the hall, as a reddened Jeb Bush insisted that he does not want the nomination.

Finally, unable to turn down the passionate pleas from the delegates - Jeb Bush becomes the 2012 Republican presidential candidate.

This will not happen.

Now understand, Crowley Political Report would love a brokered convention. Delegate count after delegate count. 

Deals, drama, and great television. It would turn the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa into a political reality show instead of the achingly dull info commercial of today's conventions.

Voters would be excited. Delegates would be energized with real power. The convention could go on for days. 

Every four years, political writers dream of having a brokered convention. In 2008, there was high hope that Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama would fight it out until the last delegate on the convention floor collapsed in exhaustion.

The last time there were multiple ballots at the GOP convention was 1948. Thomas E. Dewey needed three ballots to lock up the nomination against strong opposition.

In 1976, Republicans nearly had a brokered convention when Ronald Reagan came within a whisker of defeating Gerald Ford.  Both men spent a lot of time making backroom deals to win the nomination.

The last Democratic brokered convention was in Chicago in 1952. Prior to the convention President Truman had urged Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson to run, but he declined. At the convention, Stevenson gave a great speech and the delegates swooned.

Delegates demanded that Stevenson accept the nomination. He did. Stevenson lost to Dwight Eisenhower. Stevenson was nominated again in 1956. He lost again.

 A few years ago, New York Times photographer Stephen Crowley found Stevenson's portrait at the DNC - hanging in the back of a coat closet.

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Marco Rubio fibs, the media goes bonkers and does it really matter

Who do we blame for the current controversy about Florida Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio?

By now you know the story. The St. Petersburg Times published a story last week about nut-case birthers questioning whether Rubio could legally become vice president or president.

A day later, The Washington Post ran a story suggesting that Rubio lied about his family history by claiming that his parents had fled Fidel Castro's Cuba when in fact they did not.

Rubio easily dismissed the birther question. But he has been in full campaign mode trying to explain why his statements over the years about his parents have been, at best, muddled.

Thousands of words have been written. Prominent Republicans have jumped to Rubio's defense. There has been quibbling over the word "exile." And of course it is all a plot by the evil, liberal media.

All the noise drowns out a very simple fact - at times, Rubio fibbed about his parents. They did not come to the United State after Castro took over Cuba on New Year's Day 1959.  Rubio's parents came here in 1956.

Fibbed. Crowley Political Report uses the word very deliberately.  A fib is defined as a "small or trivial lie; a minor falsehood."

Florida official says journalists are lobbyists

Crowley Political Report continues to be baffled by what some elected officials are dreaming up these days. While this is not as bad as firing squads or tossing inmates off bridges, we now have a Broward County mayor who thinks reporters are lobbyists.

No, really.

Lauderhill Mayor Richard Kaplan has informed the Sun Sentinel that Broward's new Code of Ethics means that reporters are lobbyists because their newspaper editorial boards try to influence public opinion.

There is an interesting exchange of emails between Kaplan and Sun Sentinel reporter Brittany Wallman that you should read.

Let's hope Kaplan's silliness doesn't spread.

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It's getting very cloudy for Obama in the Sunshine State

If President Obama loses Florida in 2012, his presidency will be over.  A new Quinnipiac Poll is echoing what many Sunshine State Democrats are saying privately - Obama is losing his Florida support.

One Florida Democratic leader told Crowley Political Report that he has never been this discouraged. A party fundraiser grits his teeth and warns that Obama better start spending some quality time in Florida. Out of loyality, they did not want to named complaining about the president.

Republicans are almost giddy. As they flock to Orlando for Presidency 5 and the CPAC gathering, the party faithful are convinced that Obama is a one-term president. For Republicans the biggest quandry is which candidate they want to see in the White House.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made an impressive showing with a group of about 30 party leaders and elected officials in West Palm Beach. Palm Beach County chairman Sid Dinerstein, who insists he is remaining neutral, was clearly charmed by Perry.

"I like what he has to say and he really listens," said Dinerstein.

The only dark moment came when Perry's goons, otherwise known as Texas Rangers, shut down the Kravis Center property to the media. The Kravis center has hosted scores of national political figures and the shut down was unprecedented.

One Ranger threatened to have a television reporter handcuffed if he tried to go the normal media staging area.  It was an unnecessary bullying tactic since Perry was using a back interest to enter the event site and was nowhere near the media. In fact, all Perry's folks accomplished was making it difficult for the TV stations to do interviews with guests who were praising the governor.

Brilliant advance work guys.

Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac Poll found that "Florida voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state."

No wonder Republicans are excited and Democrats are in a funk.

And here's the really bad news for the White House - "Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 – 41 percent." 

Here's a closer look at the Quinnipiac Poll (the results include the Florida U.S. Senate race):

Why Florida should move its presidential primary ahead of New Hampshire

So Florida has finally appointed a committee to decide when the Sunshine State should have its presidential primary.  These fine folks will give us their decision by Oct. 1.

What should Florida do. Well let's have some real fun and have the primary Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011.

The very thought of this would drive the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire nuts. Both states insist that their events must take place before any other state.

Every four years, bigger, more important state such as Florida, wonder why they continue to let Iowa and New Hampshire bully them. And every four years they cave.

State law in  New Hampshire requires the Granite state to have its reality show, we mean primary, at a week before any other state primary.  So they would be forced to move their primary to November.  Iowa would have to make a similar move.

While this would cause great consternation withing the Republican National Committee, such a move would finally break the stranglehold that Iowa and New Hampshire have on the nation's politics.

Crowley Political Report discussed the issue at some length in February.  Let's revisit what we said then.

 
 
February 21, 2011

Really, Crowley Political Report loves New Hampshire.

Since 1980, CPR has spent many a cold winter night in the Granite State chasing presidential candidates and chatting with countless "Live Free or Die" residents.

There isn't a town or hamlet that has not been visited. Living there has been an occassional fantasy.

Unfortunately, New Hampshire has become a spoiled brat, clinging desperately to the notion that they alone must first determine who is the proper presidential nominee for the Republican and Democratic parties.

It is a quaint notion.

New Hampshire's primary has nothing to do with selecting presidents. Their record of soothesaying was pretty good for many years. But no longer.

Consider - in 1996 New Hampshire voters picked Pat Buchanan to be the GOP presidential nominee. In 2000, they picked John McCain. Ditto 2008. Among Democrats, they passed over Bill Clinton in 1992 and Barack Obama in 2008.

New Hampshire's primary is a helluva lot fun. It's like going to political carnival. All the acts are there, easy to see and hear. You can go as often as you like and admission is almost always free. In fact, candidates wandering Elm Street in Manchester are more abundant than circus clowns at Ringling.

What they are saying about Florida and the CNN, Tea Party debate

While Crowley Political Report and others have long noted Florida will be the key to victory in the Republican presidential primary and in next year's election, it is now becoming, heaven help us, conventional wisdom.

Washington Post, The Fix - For the next 12 days, Florida will stand at the center of the 2012 Republican race, playing host to two debates — one tonight and a second on Sept. 22 — as well as a straw poll that will help shape the presidential nomination fight.

...

The next week and a half will also serve as the precursor to the Sunshine State primary early next year — a contest that many people believe could decide the identity of the party’s nominee.

...

In conversations with a handful of unaligned strategists, however, there was broad agreement that if the race comes down to Romney and Perry — as almost everyone expects it to — Florida will likely be decisive.

Houston Chronicle - The Tea Party movement is officially welcomed into the Republican mainstream today as the first presidential debate sponsored by a Tea Party group takes place in Tampa, Fla.

...

In many ways, the Tea Party Express involvement in the debate works to Perry's benefit. He was an early supporter of the movement in 2009 and made headlines at an April 15, 2009, Tea Party event when he suggested that Texas could secede from the Union.

The Daily Beast - the candidate with the most at stake is the Tea Party queen herself, Michele Bachmann, who badly needs to capitalize on the sympathetic audience. The congresswoman’s luster has clearly faded since her Iowa straw-poll victory last month, and she was practically invisible in last week’s MSNBC-Politico debate

...

No single debate is as important as the storyline that emerges from it. Perry must show that he can stop the bleeding on a sensitive issue (Social Security). Romney, who scored few points by attacking Perry’s jobs record, needs to prove he is nimble enough to stay on offense. And Bachmann, after being relegated to the sidelines, has to get into the arena.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer -  I want potential voters out there to have a better appreciation of these candidates – their strengths and weaknesses. I want to make sure we can drill down on where they agree and where they differ. When the candidates dodge the questions, I will follow up and press. That’s what the voters want, and I’m looking forward to this opportunity.

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Jim Greer blames Florida Republican leaders for his downfall

Tampa television station WTSP is airing a two-part series on the downfall of former Florida Republican Party chairman Jim Greer.

Part 2 is the most interesting. The reporter, Mike Deeson, gives Greer free rein. If Greer was challenged about any of his assertions, viewers don't see it. Deeson also interviews Greer's wife, Lisa, Greer attorney Cheney Mason, and other Greer supporters.

An excerpt:

Oviedo, FL - Money, greed and political backstabbing appeared to have been commonplace in the Florida Republican Party's effort to oust former Chairman Jim Greer and undermine former Governor Charlie Crist's Senate bid.

Greer, who ended up in jail, has never talked about the inner workings of the Republican Party until now.

When 10 News asked Greer how this incident affected his life a year later, Greer choked up. He couldn't talk for more than 20 seconds and finally said, "Well, I can't get a job and I have no money to take care of my family because I have to give it all to my attorneys."

Greer says his problems began when he fired party fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke. O'Rourke was making $30,000 a month and a 10% commission on everything she brought in.

Greer says he underestimated her ties to the conservative wing of the party and influential lobbyists.