Crowley Political Report

Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Dinner with Marco Rubio just $10,000 at the home of Pepe Fanjul

Florida's favorite Republican U.S. Senator - Marco Rubio - is going to Palm Beach on March 8 to attend a $10,000 per person dinner for the Rubio Victory Committee.

This tidbit comes from the Palm Beach Daily News, affectionately known as The Shiny Sheet.

"The evening begins with a 6 p.m. reception at the home of Jim and Dot Patterson. The cost is $1,000 per person or $2,500 for a photo op at the reception. A 7:30 p.m. dinner will follow at the home of J. Pepe and Emilia Fanjul at a cost of $10,000 per person.

"The Pattersons, the Fanjuls, and Wilbur and Hilary Ross are the main sponsors of the event. The Rubio Victory Committee is a joint fundraising committee composed of Marco Rubio for Senate and Reclaim America PAC."

"Other members of the host committee are: Larry and Suzanne DeGeorge, Pepe and Lourdes Fanjul Jr., Cyrus and Mitzi Freidheim, Stanley and Gay Gaines, Marc Goldman, Ambassador Al and Dawn Hoffman, Jerry and Darlene Jordan, Rodger and Hillary Krouse, Marc Leder, George and Frayda Lindemann, Dan Mangru, Ken Meares, Ambassador Mary Ourisman, Michael Peragine, John Rangos Sr., David Reinke, Chris Ruddy, and Dwight and Martha Schar."

Read more about event here.

Chris Christie dropping by Palm Beach to pick up a few bucks

Poor Chris Christie. After failing to pass the American Conservative Union's purity test (is this a bit like Florida's new drug test for welfare recipients?), the New Jersey governor is going to Palm Beach to see if he still has any friends.

Never mind that the folks in New Jersey think their governor is swell. In fact, just about everybody in New Jersey likes Christie - one poll has him at 92 percent, Florida Gov. Rick Scott would cut off his right hand to have poll numbers like that.

Well if you think conservatives were ticked off when former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist hugged
President Barack Obama, you won't believe the lather they are in now because Christie accepted federal money (that omg might raise the deficit) to help pay for Sandy relief for the devastated home and business owners in his state.

The final straw for Christie was when he decided to let New Jersey join the Medicaid expansion that is part of Obamacare. This dual shock means that Christie, one of the rock stars of the 2012 ACU sponsored Conservative Political Action Conference, is persona non-grata at this year's CPAC gathering.

Apparently one key to being invited to speak is be a loser. Among the three dozen plus speakers are these luminaries from the 2012 campaign:

Mitt Romney - lost.

Newt Gingrich - lost.

Rick Perry - lost.

Paul Ryan - lost. (Okay he kept is House seat).

Rick Santorum - lost.

Allen West - lost.

And of course you get Wayne LaPierre (NRA), David Keene (NRA) Sarah Palin, and Rand Paul.

The list also includes Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Bobby Jindal among the speakers. One suspects they don't have a lot in common with Allen West.

Is Marco Rubio Florida's new Allen West

Rand Paul, Michele Bachmann, Connie Mack, Allen West and Marco Rubio - who would have thunk it?  Rubio joined the other four in voting against the fiscal cliff bill. Who would have thunk it? 

Really. Rubio is certainly a far more thoughtful politician than the folks with whom he joined hands. Bachmann? Paul? Mack? West? Is this the company Rubio now keeps?

The general consensus seems to be that Rubio's vote was a carefully calculated effort to protect his ambition to be the Republican nominee for president in 2016. Perhaps, but he cast his vote with a fuzzy crystal ball. The only certain thing about 2016 is that most of what the political folks are talking about today will be irrelevant in four years.

Rubio's vote was not a moment of statemanship. It was not an effort to lead. It was not about helping America. 

It was about Rubio. And Sen. Rubio is better than that.

If Rubio has decided that he is merely a Tea Party leader than he offers little to Republicans and Democrats who are not part of the Tea Party movement - and he limits his potential in 2016. 

But let's forget 2016 for a moment. Rubio represents the Sunshine State. Did his vote reflect what was best for Florida? Would Florida be better off if the nation had fallen off the fiscal cliff? Would the resulting economic crisis further cripple Florida's economy? 

Sometimes when the spotlight of the national stage becomes too bright, one forgets the voters who lifted you onto the stage.

This was Rubio's Allen West moment - strident and pointless.

Related articles

Rubio Slams Deal: 'I Just Couldn't Vote for It'

Why Rubio voted 'no' on cliff deal

Rubio Favored Among Republican Primary Voters

Congress prepares to reverse fiscal cliff fallout

Is Florida Veep jinxed?

Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Bob Graham, Reubin Askew, Claude Kirk ... some of them dearly wanted to be Veep, one of them said hell no. But whatever the reason, Florida pols never seem to make the final cut when the presidential nominee is looking for a number two.

In 1968, the Republican National Convention was in Miami Beach. No one wanted to be Richard Nixon's running mate more than Florida Gov. Claude Kirk. It was not to be. Instead, Nixon picked Spiro Agnew. The former Maryland governor had a bad habit of accepting bribes leading to his indictment and resignation as vice president.

Perhaps Agnew's most famous quote was his description of liberals and the media: "nattering nabobs of negativism."

By 1972, Democratic Gov. Reubin Askew was on presidential nominee Walter Mondale's short list. Mondale reportedly asked Askew to join the ticket and Askew declined. In 1984, Askew ran for president. He finished last in the New Hampshire primary and dropped out.

Both Bill Clinton (1992) and Al Gore (2000) seriously considered Democrat Bob Graham to be their running mate. He came closest to making the cut with Gore. The former governor and U.S. Senator decided to run for president himself in 2004. He made little progress.

Former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist hoped that Sen. John McCain would tap him for the Veep slot in 2008. Crist was always a long shot. Rather than pick a running mate from the Sunshine State, McCain reached up to the permafrost and picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

A lot of Florida Republicans hoped that former Gov. Jeb Bush would run for president in 2008. While they could understand why he might pass up the opportunity to follow his brother that year, the hope didn't die this year. Bush has firmly and repeatedly said he not interested in being at the top or the bottom of the ticket.

Which leaves us with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Some Republicans are simply giddy over the notion that Rubio is the best fit for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. They are convinced that having a Cuban-American on the ticket from a swing state would be all Romney needs to defeat President Obama in November.

Rubio has one big hurdle to overcome - the Florida jinx. 

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

Marco Rubio and Jon Stewart are terrific together

This is an incredible discussion. Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio and The Daily Show's Jon Stewart engage in a lengthy chat about politics, the U.S. Senate and many of the issues confronting the nation.

The discussion is energetic, thoughtful, and brilliant. If you missed the extended after-show interview, take the time to view it.  Forget taking sides. Instead note the tone and depth of the discussion. 

Toward the end, Rubio makes a candid assessment of his time in the Senate that reveals his clear frustration. You may end up with a deeper appreciation of both Rubio and Stewart and wish that our nation's politicians would take the same approach to discussing our most important issues.

There are three parts to the show which you can see below.

 

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

 

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

 

 

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

We Are Change chases Marco Rubio who weaves and dodges his way out

It all seems a little silly. A young man with the group We Are Change, breathlessly chases Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio through several ballrooms trying to get him to answer a question about the Bilderberg Group.

We Are Change describes this video thusly:

"Luke Rudkowski of WeAreChange confronts U.S. Senator for Florida Marco Rubio on Bilderberg. Watch Luke navigate hotel obstacles to repeatedly find & confront the Senator."

Well there is a lot of dodging and weaving and scurrying about but to what end? And poor Luke actually thinks he is being quite bold here and showing those silly folks in the media how it's really done.

We actually sort of like Luke's moxie.

 

Marco Rubio out as Veep pick

 

Florida Republican U.S. Senator Marco Rubio is not being considered for vice president by Mitt Romney's campaign, according to ABC News.

The big question here is: if this is true, does it help or hurt sales of Rubio's book: An American Son.

ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl reports:

 ". . .knowledgeable Republican sources tell me that Rubio is not being vetted by Mitt Romney’s vice presidential search team. He has not been asked to complete any questionnaires or been asked to turn over any financial documents typically required of potential vice presidential candidates.

Although it is possible that Rubio may yet be asked to go through the vetting process, it has been nearly two months since Romney named his long-time aide Beth Myers to run his vice presidential search. The fact that Rubio has not been asked to turn over any documents by now is a strong indication that he is not on Romney’s short list of potential running mates."

The rest of Karl's report is here.

As Karl notes, it is still possible that Rubio could be get the nod. But Crowley Political Report suspects that Rubio may have worked a bit too hard to be picked. Rubio was starting to get more media attention than Romney. The last thing a campaign wants is for the guy in the supporting role to overshadow the star (ask John McCain).

It will be interesting to see how Rubio supporters react to the news. Will they howl enough for the Romney camp to reconsider?

Marco Rubio, skip the book watch the video

There are three ways to learn more about Marco Rubio's new book An American Son: Pony-up $26.95 for the hardcover version ($12.99 for the Kindle version), read political writer Marc Caputo's great highlights story in the Miami Herald, or watch the video below.

 

 

Marco Rubio and the mystery of the Hispanic voter

A smart story in the Los Angeles Times that reminds those of us who are not Hispanic that the word Hispanic is very limited in what it describes politically.

A few excerts from the Times story:

Handsome, youthful, Cuban American and Republican, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has been mentioned repeatedly as a potential running mate for Mitt Romney — in part because of hopes that the presence of the first Latino on a major national ticket would draw that key voting group Romney's way.

But outside of his enormously important home state, the prospect for that sort of boost seems less than likely.

...

One complication is internal rivalries amid the diverse group of 22 million potential voters that, for demographic purposes, is treated as one unified electoral bloc.

"Mexicans and Central Americans historically have a reason for being Democrats, and Cubans have good reasons for being Republicans," said Jesus Hernandez Cuellar, a Cuban American editor of an online magazine. "I don't think the great electoral mass, the Mexican Americans, will change their point of view on the election just because of Marco Rubio."

Read more from the Los Angeles Times

Art by Patrick Crowley

An animated look at Mitt Romney and the Veeps

The things you stumple upon. Crowley Political Report found this animated video by Zina Saunders featuring Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio.

Saunders describes herself on YouTube as "an artist and animator whose in-your-face political cartoons and illustrations can be seen on the pages and websites of Mother Jones, The Final Edition, The Progressive, and The Real News."

Here is her less than flattering take on what she calls, "The Vetting Game."

Is Marco Rubio really out as Veep?

He always said he did not want the job. And now, there is a hint that maybe the Mitt Romney camp is not interested in Marco Rubio.

This has caused quite the stir among Rubio supporters. It all stems from a single, damning sentence, deep inside a story by Politico: 

"Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who is not being as seriously considered as popularly believed because aides don’t see him as experienced enough or appropriately vetted."

Ouch. 

Instead, Politico reporters  Mike Allen and Jim VanderHei write that the Romney campaign is determined to play it safe by finding a candidate without potential political baggage and the ability to become president if necessary.

How will team Rubio react? How will Republicans react? Will it matter? And more importantly, is Politico right? We bet they are. Read Politico's story and judge for yourself.

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

 

A love affair with Marco Rubio

The story below originally appeared in Columbia Journalism Review:

By Brian E. Crowley

Much of the national media appears to be in love with Florida’s junior senator—Republican Marco Rubio. Back on March 23, Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post wrote about potential vice-presidential running mates for Republican nominee Mitt Romney and offered this gushing assessment:

The case for Rubio is simple and close to conclusive. He’s Hispanic, giving the GOP an opportunity to reestablish some sort of foothold in that electorally critical community. He’s from Florida, a major swing state. He’s a tea party favorite thanks to destruction of moderate Governor Charlie Crist in a Senate primary in 2010. And, he’s young; at 42 years old, Rubio is 23 years Romney’s junior. Rubio’s not perfect—we hear whispers that his time in the state legislature could be mined by a good opposition researcher—but he’s a clear number one choice in our Line.

Cillizza offered little that was new with this. He accepts the notion that some Hispanics will swoon just because Rubio is on the ticket. He is enamored by the fact that Rubio is young. (And note that Rubio is even younger than Cillizza thinks; he is 40, turning 41 on May 28.)

Cillizza also joins the chorus of those who believe Rubio could help Romney win Florida. Perhaps, but I suggest he read an impressive April analysis by Nate Silver of The New York Times, who concludes that running mates may have little impact on winning their home state. (Also, we humbly suggest that if there is information that could “be mined by a good opposition researcher” about Rubio’s state legislative record, perhaps the Post might want to put on its miner’s helmet.)

When Rubio gave a foreign policy speech at the Brookings Institution, The Washington Post’s Karen DeYoung both fawned over Rubio and backhanded the GOP: Rubio, she wrote, “took another step onto the national stage Wednesday with a foreign policy speech that positioned him squarely in the middle between a dying breed of GOP moderates and his partisan brethren who have condemned President Obama as an international weakling.”

DeYoung offered no quotes from members of the “dying breed” or the “partisan brethren.” And had she talked to at least a few members of the “partisan brethren,” DeYoung may have discovered, as Politico did here that some foreign policy conservatives were unhappy with Rubio’s speech.

Sean Hannity's love affair and the Tampa Bay Times does it right

A new story by Brian E. Crowley for Columbia Journalism Review begins this way:

Whenever Sean Hannity interviews Marco Rubio, he gushes like 12-year old smitten with the girl next-door. Hannity’s beating heart could be heard as he swooned through an introduction of the Florida GOP senator during his March 28 broadcast on Fox News.

After exploring Hannity's apparent love affair with Marco Rubio, the story goes on to look at the reporting that was done by the Tampa Bay Times Adam Smith and Alex Leary:

. . .no one, until this week, has looked beyond Rubio’s insistence that he is not trying to position himself to get the job. In a smartly done story, Smith and Leary took a closer look at the actions of Rubio and his advisers—and they conclude that Rubio has in fact been positioning himself to become the vice presidential nominee.

Read the full story here.

And don't forget to follow Crowley Political Report on Twitter @crowleyreport

Marco Rubio joins Jeb Bush in endorsing Romney does anyone care?

Last night on Fox's Sean Hannity, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio endorsed Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination. 

Rubio's bold pronouncement was this - "I endorse Mitt Romney because he is going to be the Republican nominee."

Wow. Bold. Tough. Decisive. 

Now, Crowley Political Report is certain that the Romney camp is delighted to have Rubio's endorsement. Rubio is the hero of the Tea Party and beloved by the Sean Hannity crowd.

But you can bet your first-born that the Romney folks would have loved to have had the endorsement during the Florida primary. Or any other competitive primary after that. Apparently now that Rubio believes the Romney ship is sailing into Tampa with the nomination locked up, it is time for the big endorsement.

Frankly, Jeb Bush's recent Romney endorsement also falls into the better-late-than-never category. The endorsements may help Romney make the case that reasonable Republican leaders are falling in line so Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich should drop out, but frankly neither endorsement is going to have much of an impact on voters. Endorsements rarely do.

At this point,  these endorsements are aimed less at voters than the folks who write the big checks. If they can be convinced that they are wasting money sending it to Santorum and Gingrich, those campaigns will crash form the lack of cash.

So what reaction should you have about the Rubio and Bush endorsements?

A yawn will do.

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

 

 

 

 

A sneak peek at Marco Rubio's new book

Politico's Mike Allen is reporting that the release of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's memoir is being moved from October to June. The decision is apparently an effort to get ahead of the planned release of The Rise of Marco Rubio, by the Washington Post's Manuel Roig-Franzia.

Rubio's memoir titled, An American Son, recently received a lot of media attention because of revelations that Rubio, while living in Nevada as a teenager, converted to the Mormon church. Rubio stayed with the Church of Latter Day Saints for several years. He later returned to the Catholic church and remains a practicing Catholic.

Allen has an exlusive look at the book jacket for An American Son -  http://bit.ly/AsdK1f

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

Marco Rubio endorses Adam Hasner

There may be a smack-down going on in the Florida GOP primary for U.S. Senate but there is a Republican lovefest going on in one congressional race.

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio endorsed Adam Hasner for Congress. Hasner is running in the district that would have been Allen West's had the hard-charging West not bolted north to avoid a tough fight in a district that has a few more Democrats than West can handle.

Rubio joins former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in supporting Hasner who recently dropped out of the U.S. Senate race.  Perhaps Hasner's fear of Shiria Law taking over the nation will resonate better in a congressional race.

Now we give you the PRESS RELEASE:

Senator Marco Rubio said, "As my Majority Leader in the Florida House, Adam Hasner and I worked side-by-side taking on the status quo in Tallahassee and together we can do the same thing in Washington.  He is a passionate advocate for American values and will fight tirelessly for the needs of Floridians.  Adam's proven record of cutting red tape and wasteful spending is well known and his leadership on energy policy and critical national security issues will make him immediately effective in Congress. I am proud to endorse and stand with Adam every step of the way in his bid for the United States House. His conservative, common-sense approach is sure to help us restore our nation's prosperity."

Marco Rubio explains the Hispanic vote in Florida

Hispanic voters have become the focus of attention for much of the media during the past couple of days as Florida's GOP Jan. 31 primary draws closer. 

As Crowley Political Report noted in an earlier post, Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has a column in The Washington Post today where he warns Republicans that Hispanic voters are drifting away from the GOP. He offers the party four things they can do to bring Hispanic voters into the fold.

This morning, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio was featured on CBS This Morning, where he talked about the diversity of Hispanics and the issues that are important to them. And as is required in any media appearance by Rubio, he was obliged to answer questions about becoming the nominee for vice president.

Rubio calls the race for president, "close, yes, close."

He goes on to say that the importance of  moving up Florida's primary has been proven because "what you are watching now is that all the major issues that our country is facing are being confronted in Florida."

See it below and follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport.

  

Marco Rubio fibs, the media goes bonkers and does it really matter

Who do we blame for the current controversy about Florida Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio?

By now you know the story. The St. Petersburg Times published a story last week about nut-case birthers questioning whether Rubio could legally become vice president or president.

A day later, The Washington Post ran a story suggesting that Rubio lied about his family history by claiming that his parents had fled Fidel Castro's Cuba when in fact they did not.

Rubio easily dismissed the birther question. But he has been in full campaign mode trying to explain why his statements over the years about his parents have been, at best, muddled.

Thousands of words have been written. Prominent Republicans have jumped to Rubio's defense. There has been quibbling over the word "exile." And of course it is all a plot by the evil, liberal media.

All the noise drowns out a very simple fact - at times, Rubio fibbed about his parents. They did not come to the United State after Castro took over Cuba on New Year's Day 1959.  Rubio's parents came here in 1956.

Fibbed. Crowley Political Report uses the word very deliberately.  A fib is defined as a "small or trivial lie; a minor falsehood."

As Huntsman staff pulls out Perry adds three to Florida staff

It appears that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is sending a signal that he is very serious about winning the Florida Republican presidential primary even as former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman beat a hasty retreat from the Sunshine State.

In addition to announcing that he will be a major presence at Presidency 5, Perry's campaign just named three new Florida staffers - Nick Hansen, Bret Prater and Anthony Bustamante.

Here's the press release:

AUSTIN – Texas Gov. Rick Perry will participate in the Florida Presidency 5 (P5), including the P5 debate, CPAC and straw poll in Orlando, Fla. at the end of September. Gov. Perry also announced key members of his Florida team for his presidential campaign. Nick Hansen will serve as the Florida State Director, Bret Prater will serve as the Florida Political Director, and Anthony Bustamante will advise the Florida team’s grassroots efforts.

“Florida is very important to me, and I am looking forward to bringing my pro-jobs conservative message to Florida and the Presidency 5 straw poll events,” said Gov. Perry. “I have also assembled a strong team of Florida Republican professionals to help carry my record and vision for job creation and fiscal conservatism to the voters of the Sunshine State.”