Crowley Political Report

Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Allen West gets swapped for Adam Hasner

South Florida voters can be forgiven if they start to feel a bit confused. Many saw this ad...featuring among others a little girl...suggesting that because of Congressman Allen West, people are being denied life saving research. 

 

Now, there is new ad - and we use that term loosely - that is the same execept for a little picture swap. West is replaced by Republican Adam Hasner.

 

 

The ad is by the Democratic House Majority Pac. Both West and Hasner are locked in fierce races with their Democratic opponents. West and Democratic political newcomer Patrick Murphy have had one of the nastiest races in the nation. Hasner and Democratic rival Lois Frankel are not far behind on the stink meter.

In fact, compared to some of the ads their own campaigns have run, this one is pretty mild. Similar ads are being aired by the House Majority Pac in at least six other congressional races around the country.

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Todd Harris flushes Lois Frankel in new Hasner campaign ad

Republican consultant Todd Harris appears to be very proud of this ad that, well, goes where few ad have gone before. This is in the hotly contested congressional race between Democrat Lois Frankel and Republican Adam Hasner. 

Will this ad help Hasner? You decide.

You might note the product placement in this ad - there appears to be a National Enquirer and a can of Lysol spray in the final scene.

 

 

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Connie Mack, Allen West and Lois Frankel duck the voters

As folks fire up their grills and stare at the fireworks, they may want to remember that the Founding Fathers engaged in long, deep debates about the issues confronting the nation. In fact, without those debates and the compromises they fostered, we might be a very different country.

In our latest report for Columbia Journalism Review, Crowley Political Report editor Brian E. Crowley examines why Florida congressional Allen West and Lois Frankel, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Connie Mack, appear so reluctant to participate in political debates.

By Brian E. Crowley

FLORIDA — Former Miami Herald humor columnist Dave Barry once wrote: “I can win an argument on any topic, against any opponent. People know this, and steer clear of me at parties. Often, as a sign of their great respect, they don’t even invite me.”

In Florida, candidates are invited to the party—debates—they just refuse to go. When it comes to debating in the Sunshine State, candidates for federal office are saying, “No.” It is becoming a troubling trend.

Hank Aaron bats for Lois Frankel

Hank Aaron, who was known to hit the occasional homerun (755), is now doing some pitching for Florida Democratic congressional candidate Lois Frankel.

Here's the pitch:

As a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame, I understand the importance of teamwork. I’m writing to you today to ask you to join Lois Frankel’s team.

Right now, Washington is broken. We need somebody in Congress whose focus will be on getting things done, not scoring ideological points.

Can you donate to my friend Lois and help her protect the programs most important to us?

Lois has a shining public record of protecting women and seniors as well as creating jobs and a bustling economy. We need her passion and expertise in Congress now more than ever.

By midnight on June 30th, Lois needs to raise $10,000 more to meet her second quarter fundraising goal. She needs your help now to make it. We are so close – your contribution could help put us over the top.

U.S. Chamber begins ads opposing Nelson, Frankel and Grayson.

Florida Democratic Senator Bill Nelson may not yet know who will be his Republican rival in the general election - either Congressman Connie Mack or former interim U.S. Sen. George LeMieux - but the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is making it clear they do not want Nelson to return Washington.

The Chamber folks feel the same way about Democrats Lois Frankel and Alan Grayson, both in congressional races,  who get their own ads. It's all part of a Chamber television ad campaign that begins today in Florida and a handful of other states.

Nelson is portrayed as the "deciding vote" for Obamacare which will "be a nightmare for Florida seniors."

Former Orlando Congressman Grayson is described as "reckless" and his "die quickly, Republicans want you to die quickly" quote is used in the ad. 

Frankel, who is taking her second shot at a congressional seat, is accused in her ad of pushing for a more extreme version of Obamacare. She supposedly wants government bureaucrats instead of your doctor taking care of your health needs.

Judge the ads for yourself.

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Allen West spends a lot, Patrick Murphy and Lois Frankel spend less

Gonna be a good year for campaign consultants. A Crowley Political Report look at the Federal Election Commission reports filed by Allen West, Lois Frankel and Patrick Murphy show that the three congressional candidates have already spent nearly $2.9 million.

Yup. $2.9 million by the end of September.

The biggest spender is Republican incumbent Allen West at $2.26 million.  Democrat political newbie Patrick Murphy spent $381,000.  Meanwhile Democrat Lois Frankel spent $223,000.

Check out the details yourself from the FEC reports shown below.

Allen West piles up the cash, should Democrats just surrender now?

Good lord? Really? Crowley Political Report does not shock easily but Florida Republican Congressman Allen West raised a stunning amount of campaign cash during the three months ending Sept. 30.

$1.9 million.  Yup. $1.9 million.

Consider this - Democratic U.S.  Sen. Bill Nelson raised nearly $2 million. Let's call it a tie.

There are two Democrats hoping to win West's District 22 seat - former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel and Broward County businessman Patrick Murphy.

Frankel says she raised $415,000. Murphy raised $313,000. That would be a combined $728,000 for the two Democrats compared to West's $1.9 million.

Should Frankel and Murphy just go home?

Frankel has raised a total of $1.1 million since starting her campaign. Murphy has raised $1.2 million.

West has raised  $3.9 million.

Fun with math - Two Democrats total - $2.3 million. West - $3.9 million.

Fun fact - Much of the money Frankel and Murphy raised will have to be spent in the Democratic primary. West does not have, and is not like to have, a serious primary opponent.

Nope, West is just going to keep raking in the dough. A few more million for West and the DCCC may take West off their target list.

No matter how much Democrats would like to get that seat back, Frankel and Murphy are going to need a whole lot more cash to pull it off.

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Art by Chicago artist and graphic designer Brian J. Crowley

Lois Frankel takes a cheap shot at Allen West

Democrat Lois Frankel is calling Republican Allen West a "woman hater."

This is nonsense but coming from Frankel, not surprising.

After the dust-up between West and Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz, where the freshman Republican went  too far in his reaction to comments made by Wasserman Schultz on the House floor, Frankel decided to turn it to her advantage by creating a website dubbed WestHatesWomen.

It is a cheap shot.

Frankel hopes to defeat West in the 2012 election. First, she must get past Patrick Murphy who also is a candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Frankel has a long history of running nasty campaigns. Read more about that here.

The WestHatesWomen site features a petition demanding that West apologize for berating Wasserman Schultz.

"This man has a problem with women. Demand an apology. And, demand he donate $1,000 to the Florida Coalition Against Domestic Violence to show he's serious!"

Frankel, who can make a Marine blush, has done her share of berating people.

There is not a single issue that Frankel and West will agree upon. There are plenty of issues that they can fiercely debate.

And while West's behavior was disturbing because it was out-of-proportion to the act that caused it, there is no evidence that West hates women.

Political newcomer is making race for Allen West's seat interesting

Who in the world is Patrick Murphy?

Surely that has to be a question that Democrat Lois Frankel is asking this week. Murphy is a 28-year old newcomer to Florida politics who is challenging Frankel, a political veteran, for the Democratic nomination in the 22nd congressional district now held by Republican Allen West.

Murphy's campaign tells Crowley Political Report, that the candidate raised $450,000 in the last quarter. Murphy raised $350,ooo during March bringing his total to $800,000. We should note that $30,000 of that total Murphy gave to himself. Still $770,000 from contributers is impressive.

This is not good news for Frankel who has not yet revealed what she raised during the three-month period ending June 30. In March, Frankel raised $254,000 and there is no reason to believe that she did not have a good quarter.

If Frankel had hoped to walk away with the nomination, the former state representative and West Palm Beach mayor may find the road a bit rockier than expected.

Murphy, who was a Republican not long ago, was born in the Keys and lives in Broward County. He is vice president of Coastal Environmental Services. His campaign team includes South Florida Democratic operatives Jeff Garcia and Eric Johnson.

One of the most interesting aspects of this and all congressional seats is that no one knows what the district will look like in 2012. The Florida Legislature will begin seriously redrawing the districts in January with the final lines not completed until late February. And there will be legal challenges that will leave the lines in doubt until mid-summer.

Democrats in Washington must be looking at the West seat with some concern. Enormously popular with GOP conservatives and Tea Party activists, West will have no trouble raising money. Democrats will need to invest heavily to defeat West and a bloody primary is not going to be helpful.

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Allen West gets help from Heritage Action of America

 
Dropping in mailboxes in the congressional district of Florida Republican Allen West is an 8 1/2 inch by 11 inch post card from Heritage Action of America - the political action arm of the Heritage Foundation.

The front of the card shows a man, his head in hand, looking glumly at a pile of papers on the kitchen table. A small baby sits on his lap. "We going broke! Can we stop it?"

On the flip side in large headline type it reads, "Allen West is fixing this mess." Below the headline it reads, "Allen West voted for a bold plan that prevents an economic catastrophe by: saving Medicare, paying down the debt, rejecting tax increases."

Next is this: "Liberals are attacking the plan, claiming it ends Medicare. This is a lie. The plan saves Medicare and gives Americans the same health care options as Members of Congress."

Folks are asked to call West and "thank him for fighting for our families."

Clearly the Heritage Foundation is doing what it can to help West win a second term. Does that mean the GOP is worried about whether West can win. Since he has won one and lost one in that district, Republicans should be worried.

But West is also proving to be formidable. He remains popular with Tea Party conservatives and it is like that Florida's Republican legislature we do its best to create a new district for him that sheds some of those pesky Democrats.

Former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel and Fort Lauderdale businessman Patrick Murphy have announced campaigns to win the Democratic nomination. 

It should be a helluva race.

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Lois Frankel throws a helluva punch can Allen West take it?

 
Crowley Political Report has been observing Lois Frankel for more than 20 years and one thing is certain - she is one tough campaigner.

In fact, she can be downright mean spirited without much provocation. And often Frankel gets a pass with people rolling their eyes and saying, "oh that's just Lois."

Yesterday, Frankel announced that she is going to run against Republican Florida Congressman Allen West in 2012.  And she is expected - at least at first - to get serious backing from Florida and national Democrats who would dearly like to take back the District 22 seat.

Frankel began her political career in 1986 as a state legislator where she was known in the House as a fiesty, often brittle, liberal Democrat. 

In 1992, a redistricting year, Frankel decided to run for Congress in a seat that had been carved out as a minority-leaning seat.  Much of the black community - eager for their first opportunity to elect an African American congressman from South Florida, bristled at Frankel's entry into the race.

They wondered why she didn't run in another district.

Making matters worse, Frankel started throwing punches at her Democratic primary opponent, Alcee Hastings, a beloved figure in the black community.

Hastings, in carefully orchestrated outburst, retaliated - in front of this reporter at time -  by calling Frankel, "a racist bitch."

Fiery Allen West gets challenge from fiery Lois Frankel

Could this be the Thrilla in Manila - look it up kids.

Democrat Lois Frankel, soon-to-be former mayor of West Palm Beach, is announcing today that she will take on freshman Republican Congressman Allen West in 2012.

This will be Frankel's second bid for a congressional seat. Her first effort was against Democrat Alcee Hastings who famously called Frankel a "racist bitch" in one of 1992's most heated congressional races.

Frankel lost and then ten years later made an ill-fated attempt to become the Democratic nominee for Florida governor in 2002. She made little headway and quit the governor's race to run for mayor of West Palm Beach.

She has been an energetic and controversial mayor. Frankel's style is often confrontational and she's not afraid to slash at the media and political opponents.

Frankel does not take slights easily.

In some way's Frankel and West are two sides of the same coin.

We'll have more on this development later.

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