Crowley Political Report

Newt Gingrich, Tea Party and why Mitt Romney may lose Florida

Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest. 

In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.

That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.

But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich.  The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters."   Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.

Why?

Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.

Those folks are not going to vote for Romney.

 

Here's the Q Poll trendline:

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

                     Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 22  Aug 04

                     2011      2011       2011      2011

 

Perry                 4       5      28      13

Gingrich         35      17       7       4

Romney          22      21      22      23

Bachmann        4       4       5       6

Santorum          2       1       2       1

Paul                     8       3       6       9

Huntsman         2       1       2       1

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Is this Jon Huntsman video the worst campaign video ever?

Sometimes we at Crowley Political Report are left speechless. Perhaps you have an opinion about this video by Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman's daughters.

 

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What they are saying about Florida and the CNN, Tea Party debate

While Crowley Political Report and others have long noted Florida will be the key to victory in the Republican presidential primary and in next year's election, it is now becoming, heaven help us, conventional wisdom.

Washington Post, The Fix - For the next 12 days, Florida will stand at the center of the 2012 Republican race, playing host to two debates — one tonight and a second on Sept. 22 — as well as a straw poll that will help shape the presidential nomination fight.

...

The next week and a half will also serve as the precursor to the Sunshine State primary early next year — a contest that many people believe could decide the identity of the party’s nominee.

...

In conversations with a handful of unaligned strategists, however, there was broad agreement that if the race comes down to Romney and Perry — as almost everyone expects it to — Florida will likely be decisive.

Houston Chronicle - The Tea Party movement is officially welcomed into the Republican mainstream today as the first presidential debate sponsored by a Tea Party group takes place in Tampa, Fla.

...

In many ways, the Tea Party Express involvement in the debate works to Perry's benefit. He was an early supporter of the movement in 2009 and made headlines at an April 15, 2009, Tea Party event when he suggested that Texas could secede from the Union.

The Daily Beast - the candidate with the most at stake is the Tea Party queen herself, Michele Bachmann, who badly needs to capitalize on the sympathetic audience. The congresswoman’s luster has clearly faded since her Iowa straw-poll victory last month, and she was practically invisible in last week’s MSNBC-Politico debate

...

No single debate is as important as the storyline that emerges from it. Perry must show that he can stop the bleeding on a sensitive issue (Social Security). Romney, who scored few points by attacking Perry’s jobs record, needs to prove he is nimble enough to stay on offense. And Bachmann, after being relegated to the sidelines, has to get into the arena.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer -  I want potential voters out there to have a better appreciation of these candidates – their strengths and weaknesses. I want to make sure we can drill down on where they agree and where they differ. When the candidates dodge the questions, I will follow up and press. That’s what the voters want, and I’m looking forward to this opportunity.

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Huntsman's troubled campaign pulls staff out of Florida

Things are looking grim for Jon Huntsman as he shuffles his campaign, abandons Florida and desperately tries to gain momemtum for his Republican presidential campaign.

This just in to Crowley Political Report from the Huntsman campaign: 

HUNTSMAN CAMPAIGN ADDS SENIOR STAFF

Orlando, FL – Jon Huntsman for President announced the addition of four senior staff members all of whom will play an integral part in the campaign organization in the coming months. They are as follows:

•  Tom Loeffler, Campaign Chairman
•  Ann Woods Herberger, Senior Finance Director
•  Ben Porritt, Senior Adviser for Communications
•  Sarah Crawford Stewart, New Hampshire Senior Adviser
   

“Coming on the heels of the traditional kick-off of the campaign, we are very fortunate to be adding these accomplished political veterans,” said campaign manager Matt David. “These new team-members will be critical in our efforts in New Hampshire and across the country.”

In addition to adding senior leadership, David announced that the Huntsman campaign is reassigning staff from the Florida campaign headquarters to New Hampshire, a move reflective of the diminished importance of Florida’s “P5”, and the campaign’s focus on success in New Hampshire.

New Huntsman video: Obama Failed Us

Republican candidate Jon Huntsman's campaign released a new video this morning in which the former Obama appointee calls the president a failure.

SCRIPT:

JON HUNTSMAN:   Right now we’ve got people on the fringes; President Obama is too far to the left. [ABC's This Week, 8/21/2011]

CHYRON:   On Barack Obama…

JON HUNTSMAN:  Zero leadership on display in terms of the President, who should’ve used the bully pulpit well ahead of time.  [ABC's This Week, 8/21/2011]

CHYRON:   On Barack Obama…

JON HUNTSMAN: He should’ve walked away from the teleprompter. [ABC's This Week, 8/21/2011]

JON HUNTSMAN: He had two and a half years to do the most important thing demanded by the American people:  Fix the economy, create an environment that is conducive to job growth, and he has failed us. He is a good man, he is earnest, but he has failed us on the most important issue of our day. [CNN’s Piers Morgan Tonight, 8/22/2011]

CHYRON: Take It From Me...The President Failed.

 

 

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Video provided by Huntsman campaign.

1.5 million reasons why you are not gonna win the Florida GOP primary

Sure it is a nice fantasy.

After a stunning win in New Hampshire - or a damn close second -  you swing into South Carolina and continue to build momentum that takes you to the first true test of your ability to win a national campaign - Florida.

Well you better be showing up with a fat wallet.

Unless you are well-financed candidate - say a Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, or, if she can raise the money from her many loyal fans, Michele Bachmann, the odds are very long for a candidate arriving in the Sunshine State without enough cash.

Consider this would be nominee - $1.5 million. Actually it could be a bit more. That's the cost of one week of television ads in Florida's media markets. That's not counting direct mail, radio, web, and get-out-the-vote efforts.

So welcome to the Sunshine State - expect to spend a minimum of $2 million. And if you really want to win Florida, you need to start spending more time here - now.

Remember - when the snow settles in New Hampshire and the last extremist in the Palmetto State has voted, everyone will quickly forget what took place there. The Republican nominee will be decided in Florida.

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Art by West Palm Beach artist Patrick Crowley

Jon Huntsman goes to Miami, Naples and Orlando

Florida is going to play a major role - if not the defining one - in choosing the Republican nominee for president. 

Sure, some of the candidates will still play in Iowa but that state is largely a waste of a candidate's time and resources. Even some political strategists are beginning to believe that Iowa is fading in importance.

New Hampshire desperately clings to its "first in the nation" spot on the political agenda and most of the candidates will be forced to endure the Granite State's cold winter. Nevada can be ignored but South Carolinians all but threaten to succeed from the union if the rest of the nation doesn't pay attention to them at least once every four years.

When those primaries are over, there are likely to be several Republican candidates still in the race. And the next state on the agenda is Florida where the wise candidate should be planting seeds now.

Which bring us to Jon Huntsman. Today, the former Utah governor and just-resigned Ambassador to China, will open his national campaign headquarters in Orlando.

His public schedule begins in Miami where he will  make a morning visit to Everglades Lumber and Building Supply. Then Huntsman drops by Sarussi Cafe at 10:40 a.m. for a "casual discussion with local business leaders."

His public schedule goes blank until 4:30, when he opens his national headquarters in Orlando.

Before he gets to Orlando, Crowley Political Report has learned that Huntsman will attend a private event in Naples - home to Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

Coincidence? With most voters still  unhappy with Scott, it is not likely that Huntsman plans to spend a lot public time with Florida's governor at this point despite the fact that Scott's campaign manager, Susie Wiles, is running Huntsman's campaign.

Huntsman has also hired David Johnson, a tough, respected GOP political operative. He is a former executive director of the Florida Republican Party.  Other Florida hires include Nikki Jerger Lowery (who worked for Jeb Bush),  Marc Reichelderfer and Alex Castellanos, Jr.

Now, all they have to do is figure out how to make Huntsman appeal to Florida's very conservative Republican primary voter.