Crowley Political Report

Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio well ahead of Jeb Bush

Look, the fact is that any poll on April 3, 2013 trying to tell you what voters are really thinking about 2016 is, well, silly.

Most voters don't give a flip about 2016. They don't care about 2014. But, what would a pollster do if pollster wasn't polling. Birds have wings, birds fly.

Supporters of Florida Senator Marco Rubio will point to the poll and note that he with a meager 19 percent support, he leads the field. Others will note that former Florida governor, Jeb Bush is at the bottom with a mere 10 percent.

This poll really tells us very little about the future. But it is fun to read anyway. Just keep in mind what Peter Brown of Quinnipiac writes:

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite.”

They sure don't. Nor should they.

Here's the Quinnipiac statement:

There is no front-runner now for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, leaving a five-way horse race with no candidate above 19 percent among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, who ran better than other Republicans against top Democrats in a March 7 survey of all American voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, gets only 14 percent of Republican voters today.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets 19 percent of Republican voters, with 17 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 15 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  Other contenders are at 3 percent or less.

The March 7 poll of all American voters, pitting Vice President Joseph Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo against Christie, Ryan or Rubio showed Christie was the second most popular leader, topping Biden and Cuomo but trailing Clinton.

“Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate.  But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one’s presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen.”

Republican voters say 59 – 23 percent that they prefer someone with experience as a governor, rather than a senator as their party’s nominee.

Chris Christie dropping by Palm Beach to pick up a few bucks

Poor Chris Christie. After failing to pass the American Conservative Union's purity test (is this a bit like Florida's new drug test for welfare recipients?), the New Jersey governor is going to Palm Beach to see if he still has any friends.

Never mind that the folks in New Jersey think their governor is swell. In fact, just about everybody in New Jersey likes Christie - one poll has him at 92 percent, Florida Gov. Rick Scott would cut off his right hand to have poll numbers like that.

Well if you think conservatives were ticked off when former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist hugged
President Barack Obama, you won't believe the lather they are in now because Christie accepted federal money (that omg might raise the deficit) to help pay for Sandy relief for the devastated home and business owners in his state.

The final straw for Christie was when he decided to let New Jersey join the Medicaid expansion that is part of Obamacare. This dual shock means that Christie, one of the rock stars of the 2012 ACU sponsored Conservative Political Action Conference, is persona non-grata at this year's CPAC gathering.

Apparently one key to being invited to speak is be a loser. Among the three dozen plus speakers are these luminaries from the 2012 campaign:

Mitt Romney - lost.

Newt Gingrich - lost.

Rick Perry - lost.

Paul Ryan - lost. (Okay he kept is House seat).

Rick Santorum - lost.

Allen West - lost.

And of course you get Wayne LaPierre (NRA), David Keene (NRA) Sarah Palin, and Rand Paul.

The list also includes Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Bobby Jindal among the speakers. One suspects they don't have a lot in common with Allen West.

Jeb Bush's son George takes first step to becoming a candidate

If you are looking for another reason why former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will not run for president in 2016, then take note of the fact that his 36-year old son, George P. Bush,  filed papers Wednesday in Texas allowing him to appoint a campaign treasurer.

Bush is planning a run for Texas Land Commissioner. Two weeks ago, Bush told FOX Latino that he could possible become a candidate "in the next election cycle."

An excerpt from his interview with FOX:

FNL: You have been asked many times about your own political future, about running for office someday. I’ve seen your answers, but the typical answer people give when they’re asked that question is that they have no plans, that they’re just focused on the present. That’s the line.
Come on, it’s hard to believe it’s not in your plans. Your name is George Bush, you grew up with politics, with presidents. Come on George, tell us.

Bush:[Laughter] O.K., I am drawn to public service. I am thinking about statewide office, the next election cycle. After this election [Nov. 6] is over, I’ll entertain it. I’m intrigued by being in public office. I’m feeling the bug, the bug to jump into it. It’s in my genes, I can’t get it out.

Read more of the Bush interview here.

Bush, a former practicing attorney, is half-Mexican. For many Republicans who are looking for ways to increase their Hispanic support, Bush is an attractive candidate who comes with an important family name and an Hispanic heritage.

Will George be able to continue the Bush political dynasty? One thing is certain - his dad is not going to get in his way.

 

America's next Bush?

The Bush family political dynasty would appear to some to be on hold but the Prince-in-Waiting, isn't going to be on the sidelines much longer.

George P. Bush, son of Jeb, appears to be raising his profile and moving closer to the day when he will begin his political career. He has popped up in a number of interviews over the past few months and has made it clear that "public service" is an important part of his vision for himself.

His latest interview is with ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl (see it below).

You can expect to see Bush at the Republican National Convention in Tampa. While Bush is likely to begin his political career in Texas, don't count out Jeb Bush Jr. who may follow his father's footsteps by launching his political career in Florida.

 

Is Florida Veep jinxed?

Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Bob Graham, Reubin Askew, Claude Kirk ... some of them dearly wanted to be Veep, one of them said hell no. But whatever the reason, Florida pols never seem to make the final cut when the presidential nominee is looking for a number two.

In 1968, the Republican National Convention was in Miami Beach. No one wanted to be Richard Nixon's running mate more than Florida Gov. Claude Kirk. It was not to be. Instead, Nixon picked Spiro Agnew. The former Maryland governor had a bad habit of accepting bribes leading to his indictment and resignation as vice president.

Perhaps Agnew's most famous quote was his description of liberals and the media: "nattering nabobs of negativism."

By 1972, Democratic Gov. Reubin Askew was on presidential nominee Walter Mondale's short list. Mondale reportedly asked Askew to join the ticket and Askew declined. In 1984, Askew ran for president. He finished last in the New Hampshire primary and dropped out.

Both Bill Clinton (1992) and Al Gore (2000) seriously considered Democrat Bob Graham to be their running mate. He came closest to making the cut with Gore. The former governor and U.S. Senator decided to run for president himself in 2004. He made little progress.

Former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist hoped that Sen. John McCain would tap him for the Veep slot in 2008. Crist was always a long shot. Rather than pick a running mate from the Sunshine State, McCain reached up to the permafrost and picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

A lot of Florida Republicans hoped that former Gov. Jeb Bush would run for president in 2008. While they could understand why he might pass up the opportunity to follow his brother that year, the hope didn't die this year. Bush has firmly and repeatedly said he not interested in being at the top or the bottom of the ticket.

Which leaves us with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Some Republicans are simply giddy over the notion that Rubio is the best fit for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. They are convinced that having a Cuban-American on the ticket from a swing state would be all Romney needs to defeat President Obama in November.

Rubio has one big hurdle to overcome - the Florida jinx. 

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The political media is starting to look silly

When it comes to Jeb Bush, "no" is not enough.

By Brian E. Crowley for Columbia Journalism Reveiw

Sitting across from Jeb Bush last week on the set of CBS This Morning, Charlie Rose asked: “You are basically saying what about this conversation about running as the running mate of Mitt Romney?”

Conversation? What conversation? There is no conversation other than the ones being held by Rose and other members of the media who simply refuse to accept the former Florida governor’s answer. For months, Bush has repeatedly said he is not interested in running for vice president. This comes after years of telling anyone who asked that he would not run for president in 2012. Patiently and politely Bush answered Rose.

I’m not going to do it and I’m not going to be asked and it’s not going happen. That doesn’t mean I don’t have a voice. Doesn’t mean I don’t want to enthusiastically support Mitt Romney. I intend to do that. I’m doing it. But I’m not going to be a candidate with him.”

“Under no circumstances?”

“Under no circumstances.”

“So if he comes and asks, you say, ‘Sorry, go somewhere else?’”

“Yes.”

You would think this was breaking news. Stories began ricocheting across the internet as if no one had ever heard Bush say it before. Some headlines:

Veep Beat: Jeb Bush Rules Out VP, but Not Future W.H. Run - ABC News The Note

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush rules out VP bid —Reuters

 Jeb Bush: ‘Under no circumstances’ would I take VP gig —The Capitol Column

Jeb Bush says ‘under no circumstances’ would he take VP job —CNN Political Ticker

Jeb Bush says no to being Romney’s vice president —Los Angeles Times Politics Now

Where are the editors? Where is anyone in any newsroom asking, “Is this news?”

Politico talks about Jeb Bush and the Veep job

Politico's Jonathan Martin has an interesting piece about all the folks in the Republican Party who dream of Jeb Bush joining the Mitt Romney ticket.

There is much gnashing of teeth. Much, oh golly the world would be a better place if Jeb would only run.  Martin does a good job of capturing the passion and clearly notes that Bush lacks similar passion for the number two job.

Martin writes:

Interviews with about a dozen Bush associates say that’s not the usual veepstakes non-denial denial — he truly doesn’t want to be on the ticket. The common euphemism among the Jeb crowd is that it’s just not his time, that the same factors that kept him out of the presidential primary make him unwilling to be the vice presidential nominee. There’s been speculation that this is shorthand for 2012 being too close to his older brother’s presidency, but those close to the younger Bush say it’s his own wife and children he has in mind when he expresses reluctance about returning to politics.

Bingo. This is not about national politics. This is about family. Columba was miserable as Florida's First Lady. She did not like living in Tallahassee. The Bush's daughter, Noelle, suffered from drug abuse while Bush was governor. On family front, it was a very difficult period.

When Crowley Political Report suggested, in this report, that if Bush wants to hang on to his political influence, he should run for U.S. Senate - several folks scoffed at the idea.

But the point remains. If Bush bypasses the national stage this time, his influence - which is negligible outside of the inner circle of GOP loyalists - will continue to diminish. He may become an elder statesman, but there shortage of those in the Republican Party. 

This is a turning point year for Bush. And frankly, we suspect he doesn't care. Every indication is that he is content doing exactly what he is doing. 

He may be one of the few former politicians who actually enjoys fading into the background. 

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Why Jeb Bush should run for the U.S. Senate

We are approaching Jeb Bush’s tenth anniversary.  When the ballots are completed this summer, Bush’s name will not be on them. The last time Bush was on the ballot was 2002, when he won his second term as governor.

Ten years.

While some folks still believe there is a Bush Florida political machine -they are mistaken.  A political machine requires candidates and campaigns to thrive. Bush's folks have long moved on to other candidates and campaigns. 

Florida's former governor certainly has not disappeared. He travels the country preaching his gospel of education reform which can be reduced to - public education does not work, let's give private enterprise (charter schools) a crack at it.

Bush also campaigns for other candidates and offers his endorsement - sometimes belatedly such as giving Mitt Romney the nod after the nomination was all but wrapped up. Candidates like adding his name to their list but the value of his endorsement is diminishing.

That's what happens when you have stayed off the ballot for 10 years.

And there was this hint - a wistful moment perhaps - when Bush said he might just take a call from Romney if he was offered the Veep job. Bush quickly pulled back - but it left some folks wondering if he is not as content traveling the country for speaking fees as he would be if his name were back on the ballot.

Bush has never been interested in running for president. He will not run for president in the future. No one who knows him well has ever believed he wants the job. 

No one has ever believed he would be interested in the U.S. Senate. He should be.

High gas prices, Obama, Crossroads GPS and a rare appearance

No one is enjoying filling up the tank these days. Gas prices keep climbing and for most folks, their paychecks are not keeping up.

While it's not as bad as the gas crisis of the 1970s, when there was no gas available at any price, that is little comfort to people who dread the ever rising prices.

Crossroads GPS is offering this gentle reminder to viewers in Florida and several other key election states. 

On interesting side note is the fact that the ad criticizes President Obama for not being more like former President George W. Bush. Now, that's a comparision you don't hear very often. Republicans usually are not eager to mention the Bush name unless it is connected to his brother Jeb.

One should note that the ad doesn't actually say Bush's name. It leaves that chore up to NBC's David Gregory. But the ad folks do let Bush's name pop up on the screen. See for yourself:

 

 

Marco Rubio joins Jeb Bush in endorsing Romney does anyone care?

Last night on Fox's Sean Hannity, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio endorsed Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination. 

Rubio's bold pronouncement was this - "I endorse Mitt Romney because he is going to be the Republican nominee."

Wow. Bold. Tough. Decisive. 

Now, Crowley Political Report is certain that the Romney camp is delighted to have Rubio's endorsement. Rubio is the hero of the Tea Party and beloved by the Sean Hannity crowd.

But you can bet your first-born that the Romney folks would have loved to have had the endorsement during the Florida primary. Or any other competitive primary after that. Apparently now that Rubio believes the Romney ship is sailing into Tampa with the nomination locked up, it is time for the big endorsement.

Frankly, Jeb Bush's recent Romney endorsement also falls into the better-late-than-never category. The endorsements may help Romney make the case that reasonable Republican leaders are falling in line so Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich should drop out, but frankly neither endorsement is going to have much of an impact on voters. Endorsements rarely do.

At this point,  these endorsements are aimed less at voters than the folks who write the big checks. If they can be convinced that they are wasting money sending it to Santorum and Gingrich, those campaigns will crash form the lack of cash.

So what reaction should you have about the Rubio and Bush endorsements?

A yawn will do.

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Is Jeb Bush not conservative enough?

After a speech in Dallas that was largely about education, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush answered a question about the Republican primary.

“I used to be a conservative, and I watch these debates and I’m wondering, I don’t think I’ve changed, but it’s a little troubling sometimes when people are appealing to people’s fears and emotion rather than trying to get them to look over the horizon for a broader perspective, and that’s kind of where we are,” said Bush, according to Fox News.

Perhaps, Bush could have helped set the tone for the race had he be more involved during the Florida primary.  Instead of being a force for calm and reason, Bush largely stood on the sidelines. He did not endorse a candidate. He did not condemn the charges and counter-charges that now make him wonder if he is conservative enough for his own party.

Bush may be working his worry beads now, but is anybody really listening to him?

 

 

 

Jeb Bush cracks under pressure says he will run for president

Now doesn't that headline make you feel better. 

No, Jeb Bush is not running for president. Not in 2012. Not in 2016. Not in 2020. 

Crowley Political Report couldn't resist. Our good friend Adam Smith of the soon-to-be Tampa Bay Times reports on The Buzz that someone is polling in New Hampshire asking whether folks there would like Bush to get in the Republican race.

Adam has it right - "It doesn't necessarily mean anything beyond a public pollster looking for an intriguing peg for attention or a wishful thinker aiming to coax a late entry into the race by a stronger GOP candidate."

See what else Adam has to say on TheBuzz.

Will Republican delegates pick Jeb Bush to be the nominee?

By mid-morning, the folks on Morning Joe seemed to have a little had too much caffeine. It started with Joe Scarborough and Michael Steele talking about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention.

This led them to fantasy land, where the dispirited delegates would rise up and proclaim that Jeb Bush should, no, MUST, be the party nominee.

Chants and shouts would ring through the hall, as a reddened Jeb Bush insisted that he does not want the nomination.

Finally, unable to turn down the passionate pleas from the delegates - Jeb Bush becomes the 2012 Republican presidential candidate.

This will not happen.

Now understand, Crowley Political Report would love a brokered convention. Delegate count after delegate count. 

Deals, drama, and great television. It would turn the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa into a political reality show instead of the achingly dull info commercial of today's conventions.

Voters would be excited. Delegates would be energized with real power. The convention could go on for days. 

Every four years, political writers dream of having a brokered convention. In 2008, there was high hope that Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama would fight it out until the last delegate on the convention floor collapsed in exhaustion.

The last time there were multiple ballots at the GOP convention was 1948. Thomas E. Dewey needed three ballots to lock up the nomination against strong opposition.

In 1976, Republicans nearly had a brokered convention when Ronald Reagan came within a whisker of defeating Gerald Ford.  Both men spent a lot of time making backroom deals to win the nomination.

The last Democratic brokered convention was in Chicago in 1952. Prior to the convention President Truman had urged Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson to run, but he declined. At the convention, Stevenson gave a great speech and the delegates swooned.

Delegates demanded that Stevenson accept the nomination. He did. Stevenson lost to Dwight Eisenhower. Stevenson was nominated again in 1956. He lost again.

 A few years ago, New York Times photographer Stephen Crowley found Stevenson's portrait at the DNC - hanging in the back of a coat closet.

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Brett Doster to run Mitt Romney's Florida campaign

Brett Doster, who got his start as a driver, travel aide and all around go-to-guy for the 1994 campaign of Jeb Bush, is the new Florida  strategic advisor for Mitt Romney.

Bush did not win the 1994 campaign but many of those who worked for him went on have successful careers in and out of politics. Doster has become one of the leading GOP operatives in Florida. He continued to work for Bush and then helped out Bush's older brother George W. as manager of his Florida campaign in 2004.

Doster was Florida political director for the Bush-Cheney 2000 campaign. He was campaign manager for Tom Gallagher's 2006 race for governor.

Doster, a fifth generation Floridian and graduate of The Citadel, is know for his hard work and easy-going manner.

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Jeb Bush does not rule out backing a candidate in U.S. Senate race

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, when asked by Crowley Political Report whether he planned to endorse a candidate in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate,  said today he is "not intending to get involved but circumstances can change."

That leaves the door wide open for Bush to lend his name to one of the candidates. But which one?

A Bush endorsement in the race would have a powerful impact on the outcome. While Bush did not indicate which way he would lean, a big clue came today when his closest political confident, Sally Bradshaw, announced that she is backing former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Those who have watched Bush and Bradshaw work together believe that Bradshaw would be unlikely to back Hasner without at least a tacit nod from Bush.

Another dynamic at work is that Hasner's wife, Jillian Inmon Hasner, worked on Bush's campaigns and in his administration. She also worked for former President George W. Bush's campaigns. She most recently was campaign manager for Meg Whitman's unsuccessful bid to be California governor.

The Bush family believes in loyalty and Jeb Bush stays close to many of those who helped him with his political career.

Bush over the last few years has made it clear that he was not terribly fond of former Gov. Charlie Crist - even before Crist left the Republican Party.  Does that ill-feeling spread to George LeMieux, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Crist?

Odds are that Bush will not make an endorsement until late in the campaign. If Bush endorses Hasner, many Florida Republicans are likely to follow his lead.

Hasner still has a long way to go. Bush will not hand him an endorsement unless Hasner proves he is a viable candidate - which means raising enough money to be competitive, not making any major mistakes, and doing well in the polls.

If Bush endorses Hasner, it will be interesting to see how the LeMieux campaign counteracts it. Of course the biggest surprise would be if Bush endorsed LeMieux.

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Jeb Bush wants Paul Ryan to run for president in 2012

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has told The Weekly Standard  that he wants Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to enter the GOP race for president.

Bush is quoted by the Standard saying:

“Paul Ryan would be a formidable candidate. I admire his substance and energy. Win or lose, he would force the race to be about sustained, job-creating economic growth and the real policies that can achieve it.”

Bush joins a growing chorus of Republicans who would like to see Ryan jump into what has become a very crowded field of Republican candidates.

The Weekly Standard also has this interesting tidbit:

Ryan is in Colorado vacationing with his family this week. Three sources close to Ryan tell THE WEEKLY STANDARD that his wife, Jana, is “on board” with a presidential bid. “That is a very big deal,” says one Ryan confidant. “Not that she’s enthusiastic, but she understands and she’s with him on it.”

Read the entire Weekly Standard story here.

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Jeb Bush wants Paul Ryan to run for president in 2012

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has told The Weekly Standard  that he wants Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to enter the GOP race for president.

Bush is quoted by the Standard saying:

“Paul Ryan would be a formidable candidate. I admire his substance and energy. Win or lose, he would force the race to be about sustained, job-creating economic growth and the real policies that can achieve it.”

Bush joins a growing chorus of Republicans who would like to see Ryan jump into what has become a very crowded field of Republican candidates.

The Weekly Standard also has this interesting tidbit:

Ryan is in Colorado vacationing with his family this week. Three sources close to Ryan tell THE WEEKLY STANDARD that his wife, Jana, is “on board” with a presidential bid. “That is a very big deal,” says one Ryan confidant. “Not that she’s enthusiastic, but she understands and she’s with him on it.”

Read the entire Weekly Standard story here.

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Jeb Bush Jr. endorses Jon Huntsman

The son also rises. Jeb Bush Jr. has become increasingly active in Florida politics suggesting that the second son of former Gov. Jeb Bush is on his way to becoming a candidate for public office in the not too distant future.

In a blog post, Bush the younger writes:

Today at 11:15 a.m. at Scotty's Landing in Miami, I will join Gov. Huntsman to formally endorse his candidacy, and accept a role as National Chairman of GenH – the campaign's youth and young professionals outreach program.

...

I am confident that Jon's vision will appeal to young voters, who are concerned about the trillions of dollars in debt being piled on their backs, and who desperately seek jobs and economic opportunity.

...

As more Americans get to know Jon and his record, I'm confident his support will continue to grow. Two years ago, I jumped on board Marco Rubio's campaign when he was polling at 3 percent, and we made history. With Jon, I can't wait to make history again.

The entire post is here.

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Haridopolos unimpressed with Hasner, LeMieux wants Jeb instead

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos tells To the Point that neither Adam Hasner nor George LeMieux impress him as U.S. Senate candidate and he would like to see Jeb Bush or Allen West get into the race.

Haridopolos says little about his reasons for dropping out of the Republican primary during his appearance on the Sunday show which airs after Meet the Press on WPTV-NewsChannel 5 at 10 a.m.

Lots of Republicans would like to see Jeb Bush run for office in 2012 but most of Bush's supporters dream about him running for president. Bush has repeatedly said he is not interested in the White House and there's a snowball's chance on a hot Florida day that he will run for the senate.

Crowley Political Report - a political analyst for WPTV - recently suggested that Allen West may have no better time than now to run for the Senate. So far, West has expressed no interest in the race.

Haridopolos has made it clear in a number of interviews that he think very little of Hasner and question's Hasner's credential's as a conservative.

Does Haridopolos' opinion matter?

Not hardly. Once he dropped out of the race insisting that he would not run for any political office next year, he turned himself into another soon-to-be forgotten portrait in the Senate chamber.

Once out of office, people quickly forget you were there.

Ask Bill McCollum.

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Is Marco Rubio the key to Florida's U.S. Senate race?

Marco Rubio may be the most valuable player in the 2012 Florida GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

Rubio's endorsement could turn out to be more valuable than that of former Gov. Jeb Bush or Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

Rubio has been a U.S. Senator for about four months - long enough for conservatives like Rush Limbaugh to swoon over the idea of a Rubio presidency.

And the fact is that despite Jeb Bush's enormous popularity, the luster starts to fade when you have been out of office for more than four years and are showing no signs of getting back in the game.

And while a sitting governor can be a huge help, if Rick Scott's popularity doesn't begin to climb his endorsement may do more harm than good.

Which brings us back to Rubio - who will he endorse?