Crowley Political Report

Jeb Bush cracks under pressure says he will run for president

Now doesn't that headline make you feel better. 

No, Jeb Bush is not running for president. Not in 2012. Not in 2016. Not in 2020. 

Crowley Political Report couldn't resist. Our good friend Adam Smith of the soon-to-be Tampa Bay Times reports on The Buzz that someone is polling in New Hampshire asking whether folks there would like Bush to get in the Republican race.

Adam has it right - "It doesn't necessarily mean anything beyond a public pollster looking for an intriguing peg for attention or a wishful thinker aiming to coax a late entry into the race by a stronger GOP candidate."

See what else Adam has to say on TheBuzz.

Will Republican delegates pick Jeb Bush to be the nominee?

By mid-morning, the folks on Morning Joe seemed to have a little had too much caffeine. It started with Joe Scarborough and Michael Steele talking about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention.

This led them to fantasy land, where the dispirited delegates would rise up and proclaim that Jeb Bush should, no, MUST, be the party nominee.

Chants and shouts would ring through the hall, as a reddened Jeb Bush insisted that he does not want the nomination.

Finally, unable to turn down the passionate pleas from the delegates - Jeb Bush becomes the 2012 Republican presidential candidate.

This will not happen.

Now understand, Crowley Political Report would love a brokered convention. Delegate count after delegate count. 

Deals, drama, and great television. It would turn the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa into a political reality show instead of the achingly dull info commercial of today's conventions.

Voters would be excited. Delegates would be energized with real power. The convention could go on for days. 

Every four years, political writers dream of having a brokered convention. In 2008, there was high hope that Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama would fight it out until the last delegate on the convention floor collapsed in exhaustion.

The last time there were multiple ballots at the GOP convention was 1948. Thomas E. Dewey needed three ballots to lock up the nomination against strong opposition.

In 1976, Republicans nearly had a brokered convention when Ronald Reagan came within a whisker of defeating Gerald Ford.  Both men spent a lot of time making backroom deals to win the nomination.

The last Democratic brokered convention was in Chicago in 1952. Prior to the convention President Truman had urged Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson to run, but he declined. At the convention, Stevenson gave a great speech and the delegates swooned.

Delegates demanded that Stevenson accept the nomination. He did. Stevenson lost to Dwight Eisenhower. Stevenson was nominated again in 1956. He lost again.

 A few years ago, New York Times photographer Stephen Crowley found Stevenson's portrait at the DNC - hanging in the back of a coat closet.

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Brett Doster to run Mitt Romney's Florida campaign

Brett Doster, who got his start as a driver, travel aide and all around go-to-guy for the 1994 campaign of Jeb Bush, is the new Florida  strategic advisor for Mitt Romney.

Bush did not win the 1994 campaign but many of those who worked for him went on have successful careers in and out of politics. Doster has become one of the leading GOP operatives in Florida. He continued to work for Bush and then helped out Bush's older brother George W. as manager of his Florida campaign in 2004.

Doster was Florida political director for the Bush-Cheney 2000 campaign. He was campaign manager for Tom Gallagher's 2006 race for governor.

Doster, a fifth generation Floridian and graduate of The Citadel, is know for his hard work and easy-going manner.

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Jeb Bush does not rule out backing a candidate in U.S. Senate race

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, when asked by Crowley Political Report whether he planned to endorse a candidate in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate,  said today he is "not intending to get involved but circumstances can change."

That leaves the door wide open for Bush to lend his name to one of the candidates. But which one?

A Bush endorsement in the race would have a powerful impact on the outcome. While Bush did not indicate which way he would lean, a big clue came today when his closest political confident, Sally Bradshaw, announced that she is backing former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Those who have watched Bush and Bradshaw work together believe that Bradshaw would be unlikely to back Hasner without at least a tacit nod from Bush.

Another dynamic at work is that Hasner's wife, Jillian Inmon Hasner, worked on Bush's campaigns and in his administration. She also worked for former President George W. Bush's campaigns. She most recently was campaign manager for Meg Whitman's unsuccessful bid to be California governor.

The Bush family believes in loyalty and Jeb Bush stays close to many of those who helped him with his political career.

Bush over the last few years has made it clear that he was not terribly fond of former Gov. Charlie Crist - even before Crist left the Republican Party.  Does that ill-feeling spread to George LeMieux, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Crist?

Odds are that Bush will not make an endorsement until late in the campaign. If Bush endorses Hasner, many Florida Republicans are likely to follow his lead.

Hasner still has a long way to go. Bush will not hand him an endorsement unless Hasner proves he is a viable candidate - which means raising enough money to be competitive, not making any major mistakes, and doing well in the polls.

If Bush endorses Hasner, it will be interesting to see how the LeMieux campaign counteracts it. Of course the biggest surprise would be if Bush endorsed LeMieux.

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Jeb Bush wants Paul Ryan to run for president in 2012

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has told The Weekly Standard  that he wants Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to enter the GOP race for president.

Bush is quoted by the Standard saying:

“Paul Ryan would be a formidable candidate. I admire his substance and energy. Win or lose, he would force the race to be about sustained, job-creating economic growth and the real policies that can achieve it.”

Bush joins a growing chorus of Republicans who would like to see Ryan jump into what has become a very crowded field of Republican candidates.

The Weekly Standard also has this interesting tidbit:

Ryan is in Colorado vacationing with his family this week. Three sources close to Ryan tell THE WEEKLY STANDARD that his wife, Jana, is “on board” with a presidential bid. “That is a very big deal,” says one Ryan confidant. “Not that she’s enthusiastic, but she understands and she’s with him on it.”

Read the entire Weekly Standard story here.

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Jeb Bush wants Paul Ryan to run for president in 2012

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has told The Weekly Standard  that he wants Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to enter the GOP race for president.

Bush is quoted by the Standard saying:

“Paul Ryan would be a formidable candidate. I admire his substance and energy. Win or lose, he would force the race to be about sustained, job-creating economic growth and the real policies that can achieve it.”

Bush joins a growing chorus of Republicans who would like to see Ryan jump into what has become a very crowded field of Republican candidates.

The Weekly Standard also has this interesting tidbit:

Ryan is in Colorado vacationing with his family this week. Three sources close to Ryan tell THE WEEKLY STANDARD that his wife, Jana, is “on board” with a presidential bid. “That is a very big deal,” says one Ryan confidant. “Not that she’s enthusiastic, but she understands and she’s with him on it.”

Read the entire Weekly Standard story here.

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Jeb Bush Jr. endorses Jon Huntsman

The son also rises. Jeb Bush Jr. has become increasingly active in Florida politics suggesting that the second son of former Gov. Jeb Bush is on his way to becoming a candidate for public office in the not too distant future.

In a blog post, Bush the younger writes:

Today at 11:15 a.m. at Scotty's Landing in Miami, I will join Gov. Huntsman to formally endorse his candidacy, and accept a role as National Chairman of GenH – the campaign's youth and young professionals outreach program.

...

I am confident that Jon's vision will appeal to young voters, who are concerned about the trillions of dollars in debt being piled on their backs, and who desperately seek jobs and economic opportunity.

...

As more Americans get to know Jon and his record, I'm confident his support will continue to grow. Two years ago, I jumped on board Marco Rubio's campaign when he was polling at 3 percent, and we made history. With Jon, I can't wait to make history again.

The entire post is here.

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Haridopolos unimpressed with Hasner, LeMieux wants Jeb instead

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos tells To the Point that neither Adam Hasner nor George LeMieux impress him as U.S. Senate candidate and he would like to see Jeb Bush or Allen West get into the race.

Haridopolos says little about his reasons for dropping out of the Republican primary during his appearance on the Sunday show which airs after Meet the Press on WPTV-NewsChannel 5 at 10 a.m.

Lots of Republicans would like to see Jeb Bush run for office in 2012 but most of Bush's supporters dream about him running for president. Bush has repeatedly said he is not interested in the White House and there's a snowball's chance on a hot Florida day that he will run for the senate.

Crowley Political Report - a political analyst for WPTV - recently suggested that Allen West may have no better time than now to run for the Senate. So far, West has expressed no interest in the race.

Haridopolos has made it clear in a number of interviews that he think very little of Hasner and question's Hasner's credential's as a conservative.

Does Haridopolos' opinion matter?

Not hardly. Once he dropped out of the race insisting that he would not run for any political office next year, he turned himself into another soon-to-be forgotten portrait in the Senate chamber.

Once out of office, people quickly forget you were there.

Ask Bill McCollum.

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Is Marco Rubio the key to Florida's U.S. Senate race?

Marco Rubio may be the most valuable player in the 2012 Florida GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

Rubio's endorsement could turn out to be more valuable than that of former Gov. Jeb Bush or Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

Rubio has been a U.S. Senator for about four months - long enough for conservatives like Rush Limbaugh to swoon over the idea of a Rubio presidency.

And the fact is that despite Jeb Bush's enormous popularity, the luster starts to fade when you have been out of office for more than four years and are showing no signs of getting back in the game.

And while a sitting governor can be a huge help, if Rick Scott's popularity doesn't begin to climb his endorsement may do more harm than good.

Which brings us back to Rubio - who will he endorse?

Jeb Bush to join Obama Administration

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will join the Obama Administration as a special "education envoy" several sources have told Crowley Political Report.

Bush has been a leading advocate of education reform and many of his ideas have been adopted by the Obama administration.

An announcement is expected early next week.

"This is an opportunity for Jeb to show Obama how education reform should be done," said Sally Tilley, a Bush confidant.

Apparently, Bush received a call from Obama in the wee hours of the morning earlier this week seeking help to revive his education proposals.

Some insiders began to speculate that the move could be a prelude to an Obama/Bush ticket in 2012.

"It would be a shocking combination to many voters" said GOP strategist Chris Maddow.

The move would also disrupt the GOP primaries and raise serious questions if any Republican candidate could defeat the Obama/Bush ticket.

Some GOP party leaders suggest that the best move might be to offer the nomination to U.S. Sen. Rand Paul with the understanding that he would lose but it might prepare him for a 2016 run.

That scenario would become problematic if a successful Obama/Bush administration positioned the former Florida governor to run in 2016 an independent or the head of a new third party of Obama/Bush Demublicans.

Should Jeb Bush run against Bill Nelson for Senate?

First let's note that any polling down about an election that won't take place until November 2012 is largely worthless.

Second, while favorability ratings are fun to look at, the value of that information is, shall we say, very limited at this point when looked at in context of an election more than 18 months away.

So the newest Public Policy Polling survey is really an exercise in amusement.

But from it we can derive this question - is former Gov. Jeb Bush the only person who has a real chance of defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?

Crowley Political Report says the answer is "yes" and "no."

Certainly if Bush gets into the race it would be a nightmare for Nelson. It would also be a nightmare for every GOP candidate remotely thinking about running.

Haley Barbour gets some Big Love

So the awful series finale of HBO's Big Love was on Sunday night when the Twitter world went into twitterquake over the fact that Florida Republican political operative Sally Bradshaw is going to work for Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

Bradshaw made her mark managing Jeb Bush's campaigns for governor with two wins and one loss - yes fans Jeb Bush actually lost the 1994 campaign albeit barely.

In 2008, the Tallahassee-based Bradshaw was helping the presidential campaign of Mitt Romney in the Sunshine State. There have been high expectations that Bradshaw would be helping the former Massachusetts governor this time as well.

Instead, Bradshaw, 45, decided to help another M-state candidate. Bradshaw is a Mississippi native so maybe she is just feeling some love for the milk state.

Milk? You ask.

In 1984, milk was declared the state beverage.

Back to Bradshaw.  Just last week, she had some very nice things to say about Romney on Capital Dateline (video below).

"Mitt Romney right now is the odds on favorite," Bradshaw said.  "I mean he ran before.  Republicans typically do not nominate someone who has never run for president before."

Rick Scott to greet President Obama in Miami

Earlier Crowley Political Report asked the question - will Jeb Bush hug Obama? 

Today is the big day. President Obama makes his way to Miami where he will tour Miami Central High School with Bush. Both men have pushed for making dramatic changes to education.

Now, the early word is that Florida Gov. Rick Scott will greet Obama when Air Force One lands in Miami. Scott does not strike us as the hugger type so we would be surprised if the two men embrace.

After the school tour, Obama is attending two fundraisers for Bill Nelson and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. One will be at the Fountainbleu and the other is at the Miami Beach home of Michael Adler.

More about the Adler event here.

Will Jeb Bush hug President Obama?

  
It was the hug that shook the nation.

Gov. Charlie Crist and President Barack Obama doing a not quite bromance hug during the President's 2009 visit to Florida.

Crist was hammered by his fellow Republicans. How dare he embrace Obama. For that matter, how dare he be seen in the same state with Obama.

The 2009 hug turned into a 2010 election rout that forced Crist to leave the GOP and attempt a run for the U.S. Senate as an independent.

That hug spawned Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Rick Scott. It even helped energize the Tea Party.

It was a helluva costly hug for Crist.

So how close will Jeb Bush get to Obama during the pair's visit to Miami Central High School?

Here is Florida Republican strategist Alberto Martinez's Twitter response to that very question: He could kiss the Pres and no one would question his conservative cred.

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Even Jeb Bush wonders what Rick Scott is doing

Well that didn't take long.

One day after tossing out plans for a Tampa-to-Orlando high speed rail train, a veto-proof majority of Florida senators - Democrats and Republicans - sent Scott a message that basically asked - "are you nuts?"

At the same time, according to PolitiJax, former Gov. Jeb Bush was left scratching his head about Scott's decision.

"I'm surprised he didn't let the process go to a conclusion...before pulling the plug," Bush said, saying he was somewhat taken aback by Scott's timing.

This morning, Crowley Political Report warned that Gov. Rick Scott that he would do serious damage to his relationship with the Florida Legislature - not just because of his decision about the train but because he didn't bother to tell legislative leaders about his decision.

Keep in mind - we're talking about a House and Senate controlled by his own party. And with the GOP holding veto-proof majorities in both chambers it appeared that Democrats would attend the legislative session as mere spectators.

Now, Scott has succeeded in building a veto-proof coalition of Republican and Democratic senators.

It is time to stop talking about Jeb Bush for president

Jeb Bush does not want to run  for president.

Certainly not in 2012. Bush has made that clear - repeatedly.

He has become the perfect fantasy candidate for some conservatives who believe that Bush is the rightful heir to the Bush family throne.

But a new poll by Fox News shows that Jeb Bush would lose to President Obama 54-34 in a hypothetical match-up between the two men.

Hang on to that word hypothetical.

Everything written and said about the 2012 presidential campaign is hypothetical at this point. The only real, continuing certainty is that Jeb Bush is not running.

Look, take him at his word. He's been saying it for years. Jeb Bush is not running for president - not in 2012 and probably never.

On the other hand, most Florida Republicans would love to see Bush run for the U.S. Senate against Democrat Bill Nelson.

It would be a helluva race. And if the former governor won, he would have new platform for his beloved topic of education reform.

But president. Not gonna happen.

 

Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich say states should go bankrupt

Bankruptcy.  Once such an ugly word, bankruptcy has become the norm in the new economy for both businesses and ordinary folks.

Now with cities and counties around the nation considering bankruptcy as a way of getting out from under debt, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, say Congress should amend the bankruptcy laws to allow states to legally declare they are broke.'

Bush and Gingrich make their case in an op-ed piece in the Los Angeles Times. 

As they see it, bankruptcy would allow states to dismantle contracts with employees ending lucrative salaries and even more lucrative pension plans.

There is a bit of an irony here for Bush. As governor, he supported and signed legislation in 1999 that forced Florida's cities and counties to pay a great deal more for police and firefighter pensions. And the formula was changed to make those pensions far more lucrative - and expensive for taxpayers.  

Jeb Bush - Charlie Crist would get crushed

Don't even think about it.

That's the message from former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to soon-to-be-departed Gov. Charlie Crist.

In an interview with Newsmax, Bush said he would not be surprised if Crist tried to run for public office again but if Crist tries to run as a Republican "he'll get crushed."

Bush said flatly that Crist is "not welcome back" into the Republican Party.

Bush also suggests that the Obama administration should take three months off and let things "chill" so that folks can sort things out without facing more controversial proposals.

And Bush once again says he has no interest in running for president in 2012.

Who is Rick Scott?

Florida's 45th governor is a virtual stranger to most Floridians.

Sure, most folks know that Rick Scott is a Republican businessman who got into a wee bit of trouble with one of the companies he once ran.

People understand that he is a conservative, a family man and someone who is not particularly deft in debates.

But Florida's governor-elect is one of the least known figures to move into the governor's mansion. Governors Lawton Chiles, Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist - to name a few - had spent years in Florida politics before winning the governor's race.

Floridians did not even know Scott existed seven months ago. $73 million of campaigning gave Scott name recognition but not much more.

Career politician vs. businessman - many issues were the same in Chiles vs. Bush

As we wait for tonights results in the race between Rick Scott and Bill McCollum for the Republican nomination to be Florida's next governor, Crowley Political Report takes a look back at another race between a career politician and a businessman.

Many of the issues, charges and counter charges in 1994 are eerily the same today.

November 10, 1994

By BRIAN E. CROWLEY - Palm Beach Post Political Editor

MIAMI - In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Jeb Bush stood in the hotel hallway outside his election-night headquarters holding his first glass of scotch in two years.

His eyes, red from too little sleep and the pain of losing the closest race for governor since 1876, teared up as he hugged his campaign manager, Sally Harrell.

''You did a great job,'' Bush said. ''It was the candidate who failed you.''

Not entirely.

Bush was defeated in his first campaign for governor by incumbent Democrat Lawton Chiles for reasons more complicated than simple candidate failure. Misjudgment, poor timing, failure to act quickly at crucial moments and a critical misunderstanding of just how determined Chiles was to win a second term all contributed to Bush's loss.