Look closer at the Quinnipiac Poll that came out today and Mitt Romney may be in even more trouble in Florida than the numbers suggest.
In a survey of 509 Florida Republican voters (with a margin-of-error of 4.3 percent), Newt Gingrich got support from 35 percent. Romney was at 22 percent. No other candidate exceeded 8 percent.
That would appear to be very impressive for Gingrich at this point in the campaign, especially since the Florida primary is just seven weeks away.
But the numbers may actually be much better for Gingrich. The survey was not limited to the more accurate "likely voters." Had it been, Crowley Political Report suspects that Gingrich's number would have been higher.
Why?
Because many of the folks who are likely to show up for the January 31 Florida primary are likely to be Tea Party voters.
It was always difficult to take Herman Cain seriously as a presidential candidate. Cain acted more like a retiree who wanted to hit the road in his RV, visit historic places and perhaps work part time.
Consider this from MSN Money in a story about RV retirees:
More than 1 million Americans have pulled up stakes, sold homes and hit the road in RVs to travel, see family and even work part-time. It's easier than ever in an age of cell phones and satellites, but is it the lifestyle for you?
Cain certainly pulled up stakes and hit the road in his RV. And he even worked part-time, selling books and, well, running for president.
Why not?
Cain never thought he would win. Even he seemed surprised when, after apparently spending time doing some thinking in his RV and coming up with 9-9-9, people started to notice.
And where did Cain become a hit? Florida, of course. Home to more than its share of retirees and RVs.
We have a long proud tradition of folks retiring early and taking off in their recreational vehicle to see the country.
Some people take this type of travel very seriously. They spend years on the road traveling all around the country meeting new people.
Now, doesn't that sound like Cain.
Our successful businessman and less successful candidate surely was wondering what to do with his life when he turned 65 last year.
Was the answer as simple as "gosh I think I'll run for president."
At Crowley Political Report, we don't think so. Cain may not have needed the money to supplement his Social Security but he surely wanted a glamourous part-time job.
So why not get an RV, write a book, and run for president.
Now to be fair, Cain never became a serious RVer. He didn't spend a lot of time looking for a good spot at the local campgrounds.
And we wonder if he spent any time driving the bus himself.
Herman Cain is home talking to his wife about the future of his presidential campaign. In a matter of hours we'll know whether she has pulled the plug on his part time job.
If Cain quits the race, that doesn't mean its the end of his Golden Years as a retiree. He can get behind the wheel and join his fellow travelers.
We hear there are great discounts at state and national parks.
So to answer MSN's question - yes Herman Cain, this is the lifestyle for you.
Crowley Political Report has joined Columbia Journalism Review in its effort to monitor media coverage during the 2012 campaign.
Today, CPR wrote about the media's reporting on Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain's visit to Florida.
Was it fair? Did the coverage say something about the media?
We look at Cain being questioned about the "wet foot, dry foot" immigration policy toward Cubans, his question about speaking "Cuban," and how the media reacted.
An excerpt:
Eleven seconds. That’s how long the exchange lasted between Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain and Miami Herald political reporter Marc Caputo during a campaign swing through South Florida last week.
During a multi-city visit that took Cain to a senior center in Sweetwater, Miami’s Little Havana, Coral Springs, West Palm Beach and Palm Beach, the most newsworthy moment, judging by the resulting press coverage, occurred in those 11 seconds.
While in Sweetwater walking toward the senior center, Caputo, his video camera aimed at Cain, said to the candidate, “I want to ask you about, do you mind, about Cuba, about your Cuba policy, what you think about the wet-foot, dry-foot policy?”
Cain, looking and sounding puzzled, answered, “The wet-foot, dry-foot policy?”
...
...while the Florida media did a good job of capturing the entirety of Cain’s Florida trip, media outside the state often took the easy way out: grabbing the tidbit about speaking “Cuban” and/or the “wet-foot, dry-foot” exchanges, both of which served to confirm the (again, not unfounded) media narrative that Candidate Cain does not have a good grasp of things foreign policy. That became the story —We’ve confirmed our hunch, again! Our work here is done. The episode may have revealed something about Cain, but the way it was covered revealed as much about the media.
Please read the complete Columbia Journalism Report here.
A little more than six weeks ago, Florida Republicans gave Herman Cain a gift. Giving Cain 37 percent of the vote in a straw ballot at Presidency 5 in September, GOP convention delegates shoved Cain to the front of the presidential campaign pack.
Cain more than doubled the vote of second and third place finishers Rick Perry (15 percent) and Mitt Romney (14 percent).
On Wednesday, Cain returns to Florida a different candidate. He will make stops in Miami, Coral Springs and West Palm Beach at time when some are questioning whether Cain's race for the GOP nomination is now doomed.
He has been haunted by multiple accusations of sexual harassment. He has repeatedly and firmly called his accusers liars. Cain's wife, Gloria, appeared on FOX News Monday night with Greta Van Susteren to defend her husband.
But while she was defending him, Cain got himself into trouble over Libya.
Yes, Libya.
Cain looked confused and unsure about the issue. Here's how CBS reported the incident. Crowley Political Report has seen the full interview and the CBS clip is a fair representation.
A bit of good news today for Cain came from a Bloomberg News poll of likely Iowa caucus voters - Cain is at 20 percent, Ron Paul, 19 percent, Mitt Romney, 18 percent and Newt Gingrich, 17 percent.
Cain watchers will be looking closely at how he performs in Florida on Wednesday. How big will the crowds be? Do they care about the sexual harassment questions? Do Florida Republicans think Cain can win?
If you want to see Cain in action, you have three opportunities (events are free and open to the public):
11:45 AM – Versailles Restaurant, 3555 Southwest 8th Street, Miami
A new Quinnipiac Unviersity poll released today suggests that Florida voters are evenly divided between Republican Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama. While these results have little meaning at this point in the 2012 election, there are some interesting tidbits in the poll.
First, the most worrisome number for Obama is 83 percent.
That is the percentage of Florida voters who said they are either "very dissatisfied" (52 percent), or "somewhat dissatisfied" (23 percent), when asked what they think about "the way things are going in the nation today."
The poll fails to explore that question further, so we don't know whether these voters are dissatisfied with Obama, Congress, Wall Street, or all of the above.
Still, no sitting president wants to enter an election year with those kinds of numbers. Dissatisfied voters also are persuadeable voters and that's a good sign for Republicans.
The number one issue for Florida voters remains the economy (55 percent), followed by the federal deficit (13 percent), and health care (11 percent). All other issues were in signal digits.
With few signs of a significantly improving economy between now and November 2012, the dissatisfaction numbers and top issues concerns are not likely to change. This should worry the White House which needs Florida's 29 electoral votes to win a second term.
Good news for Obama - Florida voters believe he is "honest and trustworthy" (52 percent). But Mitt Romney did as well as Obama with 51 percent. Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich hover between 37 percent and 40 percent.
Women love Bill Clinton. Even after Clinton wagged his finger at the television camera and angrily said, "I did not have sex with that woman."
Even after they watched Chelsea walk between her parents as they headed toward Marine One, the presidential helicopter.
When it was all over, Clinton made a trip to Miami. After his speech, women rushed the rope line to shake his hand and be close to him.
Why? Crowley Political Report has asked that question of many women over the years. They smile. They agree what Clinton did was wrong.
But they like him and they are willing to ignore his sexual transgressions.
So far, Herman Cain has not been accused of anything nearly as severe as the misconduct of Bill Clinton.
Cain has steadfastedly denied doing anything wrong. The women who have come forward have, at this point, largely accused Cain of the kind of boorish behavior often committed by a 14-year old.
Two of the women, Karen Kraushaar and Sharon Bialek, are preparing to have a joint press conference to talk more about their allegations. Other women may join them.
Cain says they are liars.
Someone is lying.
The fact is, that while Cain denies the accusations and supporters defend him, the questions will linger - even if he becomes the GOP nominee. Even if he becomes the next president.
What his campaign must calculate now, is whether Cain will be granted the same political immunity that was given to Bill Clinton.
Will women voters feel the same way about Cain as they did Clinton?
And do women voters need to hear from Cain's wife, before they make a decision about Cain?
What would Bill do?
Of course there is one major difference between Bill and Herman. Clinton was accused of consensual relations with other women. Cain is being accused of unwanted behavior.
This is turning into a very scary Halloween for the Herman Cain campaign. Just as the Republican presidential candidate is gaining traction - and hiring campaign staff in key states like Florida - Cain is now confronted with accusations of sexual harassment.
Politico dropped this bombshell on Cain and in what appears to be a thorough report on accusations made, and financial settlements obtained, by two women who complained about sexual harassment while Cain was head of the National Restaurant Association.
The Politico story is required reading if you want to understand what all the fuss is about.
So far, Cain's handling of the questions has been dismal. As of this writing, Cain has remained evasive, defensive and unresponsive to the specific questions being asked.
That is a very dumb approach.
This is not going away. And the longer he delays in dealing forthrightly with the issue the deeper the problem is going to get.
INSTANT UPATE: On Fox News a few minutes ago, Cain said about the Politico story:
"I’ve never sexually harassed anyone and yes, I was falsely accused while I was at the National Restaurant Association. I say falsely because it turned out after the investigation to be baseless. …It is totally baseless and totally false. Never have I committed any sort of sexual harassment.”
He added: "If the restaurant association did a settlement, I wasn't even aware of it and I hope it wasn't for much. If there was a settlement, it was handled by some of the other officers at the restaurant association."
UPDATE NUMBER 2 - Cain speaks at National Press Club:
"Number one, in all of my over 40 years of business experience ... I have never sexually harassed anyone. Number two, while at the restaurant association, I was accused of sexual harassment. Falsely accused, I might add.
I was falsely accused of sexual harassment, and when the charges were brought, as the leader of the organization, I recused myself and allowed my general counsel and human resource officer to handle it."
UPDATE NUMBER 3 - See Cain video from NPC:
Perhaps. But even with his remarks to Fox News, this is still a dumb approach.
Cain's remarks leave questions:
Why did Cain not make the same "baseless and totally false" statement to Politico?
Why would Cain, as head of the National Restaurant Association, be unaware of a settlement involving him? (See Update 2 above).
Why did the National Restaurant Association settle?
This is one of those campaign moments that drive staff nuts. They are left wondering - what else did Herman forget to mention? And what happens if one or more women suddenly go public?
We've seen this play before. Bill Clinton anyone?
Cain's rapid rise since the Florida straw poll has placed him under intense scrutiny. That is a good thing for candidates.
Now, Cain needs to put these questions about sexual harassment behind him by telling the truth, and nothing but the truth, as quickly as possible.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry seems to have little traction with Florida Republicans while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney clings to a commanding lead with Herman Cain following in second place.
Well maybe.
The sample of 401 registered GOP voters is a tad small. The margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent which is a tad large.
Tadding aside, the important thing is that at this stage of a campaign it's all about headlines and perceptions.
Here's what the poll really tells us - despite some grumbling, Florida's GOP voters are comfortable with Romney. Here's what the poll doesn't tell us - who is going to show up to vote?
If you watch the dance in teh 2012 Florida's U.S. Senate race, plus last year's race for governor and U.S. Senate, it is pretty clear that the most likely voters in the January 31 primary will be Tea Party voters and other who feel similarly.
Not good for Romney.
He is still a tough sell to the Tea Party - a group known to be willing to cut a candidate off at the knees for the slightest perceived transgression.
Could Rick Perry take his place? Maybe. But at 9 percent in this poll - tied with Newt Gingrich - it's pretty clear that Florida Republicans remain unimpressed.
The wild card remains Cain. He's popular with Tea Party and may finally be putting together the money and Florida organization he needs to have a shot.
We're less than 100 days away from the Jan. 31 primary - and the candidates still have to deal with Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Enjoy the poll - but don't take it too seriously.
Consider this, 50 percent of those surveyed said they might change their mind.
The results: Romney 30% Cain 18% Gingrich 9% Perry 9% Paul 6% Bachmann 4% Huntsman 1% Santorum 1% No opinion 14%
This morning, Crowley Political Report spent more than 30 minutes talking about Herman Cain with a Washington reporter from Reuters.
Cain has become a popular interview subject ever since his stunning victory in the Florida Republican Party's straw poll. Since then, Cain has led in some polls including last week's NBC/Marist poll. Cain's closest competitor has been Mitt Romney.
