Crowley Political Report

A view of the Obama campaign through the eye of New York Times photographer Stephen Crowley

Family concerns resulted in a bit of a hiatus for Crowley Political Report.  So it seems appropriate to re-enter the fray with the family.  Today, the New York Times has a great photo essay of President Obama's recent campaign trip to California and Washington.  The photos are by Crowley Political Report's favorite photographer - Stephen Crowley.

Stephen is a unique talent. Yes, I know, he is my brother and you would expect me to say that. But here is what James Estrin wrote about Stephen in 2010:

Stephen Crowley has spent most of his career masquerading as a newspaper photographer while producing idiosyncratic projects that push the boundaries of photojournalism and reveal unvarnished truths behind his most frequent subject: Washington politics.

Mr. Crowley, a staff photographer for The New York Times, consistently takes risks in his photography. He was employing complex compositions in newspaper photography long before the style became trendy.

In his political photographs, Mr. Crowley shows his Washington subjects warts and all. In personal projects like “Urban Archaeology” and “Crowleygraphs,” his black-and-white images are elegant and precise. Sometimes, he combines the political and personal in diptychs andtetraptychs, adding a sharp sense of irony.

“Washington is all artifice and show business — even more so today than when I started,” Mr. Crowley said. “There is a lot to be upset about these days, and there are a lot of people to hold accountable in media and politics. I think there is a thread of humor through my work, and humor is just a form of anger, if you think about it.”

Read more here.  And see his Obama photo essay here. 

Stephen has not just covered Washington politics. He has traveled the world for the Times, from tiny village to war zones. Everywhere he goes, he photographs tell a story that no one else does.

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Florida voters trust Obama and Romney

A new Quinnipiac Unviersity poll released today suggests that Florida voters are evenly divided between Republican Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama.  While these results have little meaning at this point in the 2012 election, there are some interesting tidbits in the poll.

First, the most worrisome number for Obama is 83 percent.

That is the percentage of Florida voters who said they are either "very dissatisfied" (52 percent), or "somewhat dissatisfied" (23 percent), when asked what they think about "the way things are going in the nation today."

The poll fails to explore that question further, so we don't know whether these voters are dissatisfied with Obama, Congress, Wall Street, or all of the above.

Still, no sitting president wants to enter an election year with those kinds of numbers. Dissatisfied voters also are persuadeable voters and that's a good sign for Republicans.

The number one issue for Florida voters remains the economy (55 percent), followed by the federal deficit (13 percent), and health care (11 percent). All other issues were in signal digits.

With few signs of a significantly improving economy between now and November 2012, the dissatisfaction numbers and top issues concerns are not likely to change. This should worry the White House which needs Florida's 29 electoral votes to win a second term.

Good news for Obama - Florida voters believe he is "honest and trustworthy" (52 percent).  But Mitt Romney did as well as Obama with 51 percent.  Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich hover between 37 percent and 40 percent.

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Allen West piles up the cash, should Democrats just surrender now?

Good lord? Really? Crowley Political Report does not shock easily but Florida Republican Congressman Allen West raised a stunning amount of campaign cash during the three months ending Sept. 30.

$1.9 million.  Yup. $1.9 million.

Consider this - Democratic U.S.  Sen. Bill Nelson raised nearly $2 million. Let's call it a tie.

There are two Democrats hoping to win West's District 22 seat - former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel and Broward County businessman Patrick Murphy.

Frankel says she raised $415,000. Murphy raised $313,000. That would be a combined $728,000 for the two Democrats compared to West's $1.9 million.

Should Frankel and Murphy just go home?

Frankel has raised a total of $1.1 million since starting her campaign. Murphy has raised $1.2 million.

West has raised  $3.9 million.

Fun with math - Two Democrats total - $2.3 million. West - $3.9 million.

Fun fact - Much of the money Frankel and Murphy raised will have to be spent in the Democratic primary. West does not have, and is not like to have, a serious primary opponent.

Nope, West is just going to keep raking in the dough. A few more million for West and the DCCC may take West off their target list.

No matter how much Democrats would like to get that seat back, Frankel and Murphy are going to need a whole lot more cash to pull it off.

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Art by Chicago artist and graphic designer Brian J. Crowley

American Crossroads ad greets Obama in Orlando

President Obama comes to Orlando and Lake Mary today to raise a few bucks for his reelection campaign. Florida polls suggest he's going to need the money.

Bad news for Orlando - Air Force One is expected to land around 4:40 p.m. with the presidential motorcade leaving shortly after that for the downtown Sheraton.

Start honking your horns now or ask the boss if you can go home early.

After that event, Obama travels to Lake Mary for a fundraiser at the home of attorney John Morgan - you know Morgan and Morgan, the Charlie Crist firm.

There also is talk that Obama will meet with Orlando workers so he can tout his American Jobs Act which appears to be going nowhere fast.

The Karl Rove group, American Crossroads, is offering Obama an Orlando greeting which is running during his visit to the area.

Here's the ad:

 

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Democrats - Tell Congress no more games

Crowley Political Report gave you Rick Perry's "President Zero" ad in an earlier report, now we have the new Democratic National Committee ad promoting President Obama's "American Jobs Act."

The ad urges voters to tell Congress,  "no more games, pass the plan."

Which ad will resonate most with voters? That decision is yours dear reader.

Here's the DNC ad:

 

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It's getting very cloudy for Obama in the Sunshine State

If President Obama loses Florida in 2012, his presidency will be over.  A new Quinnipiac Poll is echoing what many Sunshine State Democrats are saying privately - Obama is losing his Florida support.

One Florida Democratic leader told Crowley Political Report that he has never been this discouraged. A party fundraiser grits his teeth and warns that Obama better start spending some quality time in Florida. Out of loyality, they did not want to named complaining about the president.

Republicans are almost giddy. As they flock to Orlando for Presidency 5 and the CPAC gathering, the party faithful are convinced that Obama is a one-term president. For Republicans the biggest quandry is which candidate they want to see in the White House.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made an impressive showing with a group of about 30 party leaders and elected officials in West Palm Beach. Palm Beach County chairman Sid Dinerstein, who insists he is remaining neutral, was clearly charmed by Perry.

"I like what he has to say and he really listens," said Dinerstein.

The only dark moment came when Perry's goons, otherwise known as Texas Rangers, shut down the Kravis Center property to the media. The Kravis center has hosted scores of national political figures and the shut down was unprecedented.

One Ranger threatened to have a television reporter handcuffed if he tried to go the normal media staging area.  It was an unnecessary bullying tactic since Perry was using a back interest to enter the event site and was nowhere near the media. In fact, all Perry's folks accomplished was making it difficult for the TV stations to do interviews with guests who were praising the governor.

Brilliant advance work guys.

Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac Poll found that "Florida voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state."

No wonder Republicans are excited and Democrats are in a funk.

And here's the really bad news for the White House - "Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 – 41 percent." 

Here's a closer look at the Quinnipiac Poll (the results include the Florida U.S. Senate race):

Howard Dean takes on Allen West and David Rivera

Dubbed "Don't kill the dream" a new television ad is being brought to you by the Dean Brothers - Howard and Jim, this Sunday in a congressional district near you.

Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont,  and his brother Jim, are behind the group, Democracy for America that is running the 60-second ad.

From Democracy for America:

A new 60-second television ad released today by Democracy for America targets Republicans for killing the American Dream and failing to create jobs. The ad, “Don’t Kill the Dream,” which will air both nationally and in targeted congressional districts, features Americans who want Republicans in Congress to stop dismantling the middle class and killing the American Dream. The ad calls out Republicans for slashing vital programs the middle class depends on while simultaneously insisting on tax breaks and loopholes for corporations and millionaires.

The ad will run nationally on Sunday shows and in the districts of Allen West (FL - 22) and David Rivera’s (FL -25). This is part of Democracy for America’s national campaign to hold Republicans accountable that will run from now until the election in 2012.

AD TRANSCRIPT:

We were city workers in New York State, luckily we had good benefits. We would like to grow old comfortably and get back what we contributed. We would like to see those that we love have the same.
-Samuel and Stephanie Levine, Retired

I came to the United States when I was 10 years old, because this is the land of opportunity. But opportunities are disappearing on us because Washington has decided to protect millionaires and billionaires and squeeze the middle class. That is not the American dream.
-Millie Herrera, Small Business Owner

The American dream is having security and knowing that your kids can have security too.
-Chris Ossman, Engineer

To be able to live a decent life, free of fear about the next medical bill.
-Samuel Levine, Retired

Being able to get a great education, the greatest in the world.
-Austin Brookley, Student

The American dream is not just to make a profit in our business, but to be able to sleep at night and know that we are going to be okay.
- Annette Taddeo, Small Business Owner

But the basic needs of this country are being threatened by what’s going on in Washington.
-Chris Ossman, Engineer

We can let Republicans in Washington kill the American Dream.
-Millie Herrera, Small Business Owner

 

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Joe Biden will speak to Florida Democrats

Florida Democratic Party chairman Rod Smith announced a few minutes ago that Vice President Joe Biden will attend the party's 2011 state convention.

In a statement, Smith said:

Our state is at a crossroads and Democrats are more determined than ever to fight. With 29 crucial electoral votes, Florida is one of the most important swing states in the country.

With your help, we will re-elect President Obama, Senator Nelson and send more Democrats fighting for middle class families to Congress to join our Democratic Delegation. This year's State Convention is exactly what we need to harness our collective enthusiasm and focus on electing Democrats in 2012.

The convention is Oct 28-30, at Disney Worlds' Contemporary Resort.  The convention website is here.

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Allen West takes on Bill Nelson

Allen West always one a bit puzzled.

The Republican Congressman worked himself into self-righteous outrage when Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz took the House floor to talk about the GOP "cut, cap and balance" plan.

During her remarks she said: ". . .President Obama has vowed to veto this bill which ends the Medicare guarantee and incredulously the gentleman from Florida, who represents thousands of Medicare beneficiaries as do I, is supportive of this plan that would increase the cost for Medicare beneficiaries. Unbelievable from a member from South Florida."

When West heard about her remarks, he fired off an email to Wasserman Schultz and House leaders calling her "vile" "despicable" "unprofessional" and other choice descriptions.

West also said, "If you have something to say to me, stop being a coward and say it to my face, otherwise, shut the heck up."

This brings us to Florida Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. After the Senate voted not to take up the House bill today, West sent out this Tweet:

Voting to table Cut, Cap & Balance for fear of passing the Senate is a disgrace. Fl Sen Nelson and the Dems play tricks at Americans expense.

What happened to "say it to my face"?

Oh well.

Perhaps more interesting is that fact that West is taking on Nelson. Is this a hint that he is thinking about running against Nelson.

West has the money and the love 0f the Tea Party. Crowley Political Report suggested in a previous article that West might easily win the GOP primary.

Maybe West will let know if he is interested on Twitter.

 

Democrats try to make a few bucks off Allen West's tirade

Well that didn't take long. 

Crowley Political Report just received the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's new fundraising appeal using Republican Congressman Allen West's email outburst against DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz yesterday as a reason why folks should quickly send cash.

They are calling it the "emergency rapid response fund."

Emergency? Really?

Here's the DCCC message:

“You are the most vile, unprofessional, and despicable member of the US House of Representatives... you are not a Lady.”
- Republican Congressman Allen West in an e-mail to
Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Last night, Republican Rep. Allen West sent a disgraceful e-mail outburst to one of our most accomplished colleagues in the House, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, telling her to “shut the heck up” for daring to challenge the GOP plan to gut Medicare and Social Security to pay for tax cuts for billionaires.

I wish I could say I was surprised.

Unfortunately, this is exactly the sort of partisan tantrum we're used to from House Republicans as they push our economy to the brink of disaster while pandering to their Tea Party base.

We can't let this shameful display go unanswered.

Contribute $3 or more right now to help us defeat disgraceful Republicans like Allen West in 2012. My Democratic colleagues are so appalled that they’ve agreed to match all gifts today dollar-for-dollar up to our $100,000 goal.

This kind of appalling behavior is all too familiar from Congressman West, who has riled up his extremist right-wing base by attacking progressive women for “neutering American men,” calling supporters of President Obama, “a threat to the gene pool” and writing for a misogynist magazine that denigrated women with words I'd be ashamed to even repeat.

And now that he’s in Congress, West thinks he can attack a respected legislator like Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz with this kind of hate-filled screed.

Allen West has shown us his true colors, now let’s show him ours.

Contribute right now to help throw Allen West and his Tea Party colleagues out in 2012.

Let’s make sure Republicans don’t forget this moment.

Rep. Steve Israel
DCCC Chairman

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Political newcomer is making race for Allen West's seat interesting

Who in the world is Patrick Murphy?

Surely that has to be a question that Democrat Lois Frankel is asking this week. Murphy is a 28-year old newcomer to Florida politics who is challenging Frankel, a political veteran, for the Democratic nomination in the 22nd congressional district now held by Republican Allen West.

Murphy's campaign tells Crowley Political Report, that the candidate raised $450,000 in the last quarter. Murphy raised $350,ooo during March bringing his total to $800,000. We should note that $30,000 of that total Murphy gave to himself. Still $770,000 from contributers is impressive.

This is not good news for Frankel who has not yet revealed what she raised during the three-month period ending June 30. In March, Frankel raised $254,000 and there is no reason to believe that she did not have a good quarter.

If Frankel had hoped to walk away with the nomination, the former state representative and West Palm Beach mayor may find the road a bit rockier than expected.

Murphy, who was a Republican not long ago, was born in the Keys and lives in Broward County. He is vice president of Coastal Environmental Services. His campaign team includes South Florida Democratic operatives Jeff Garcia and Eric Johnson.

One of the most interesting aspects of this and all congressional seats is that no one knows what the district will look like in 2012. The Florida Legislature will begin seriously redrawing the districts in January with the final lines not completed until late February. And there will be legal challenges that will leave the lines in doubt until mid-summer.

Democrats in Washington must be looking at the West seat with some concern. Enormously popular with GOP conservatives and Tea Party activists, West will have no trouble raising money. Democrats will need to invest heavily to defeat West and a bloody primary is not going to be helpful.

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Why Obama could lose Florida

Ending with car crashes and a train wreck, the new Republican National Committee ad being shown in Florida more than suggests that the Obama administration has wrecked America.

And the ad takes Obama's 2008 campaign promise of "change" and thows it a back at him. You can see the ad on the next page. Here is the text of the voiceover:

He promised to change direction - $800 billion in stimulus. Trillions for government health care. Two million jobs gone.

Left turn after left turn. America's headed the wrong way fast.

Six million foreclosures. Fourteen trillion in debt. $500 billion in higher taxes. And the worst long term unemployment in generations. Don't let Obama drive us to disaster. Change direction.

This RNC ad basically asks the same questions that Ronald Reagan asked Jimmy Carter during the 1980 election. One week before voters went to the polls, Reagan closed the deal with voters by asking:  "Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment...than there was four years ago?"

Those questions are usually reduced to the simpler, "are you better off than you were four years ago?'

Florida Democratic strategists are worried. Several have told Crowley Political Report that they think  2012 could be very difficult. And for good reason.  There has been little sunshine in the Sunshine State since Barack Obama won the White House. Unemployment remains high. Job propects remain gloomy and signs of an economic recovery are few.

Ted Deutch uses Rick Scott as a foil to raise money

 
Ted Deutch wants his fellow Democrats to worry that he might be screwed by Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

In an email to potential donors, the South Florida congressman says:

Governor Rick Scott and his allies control the entire process for drawing new congressional districts, and Democrats without strong support will quickly find themselves targets. We cannot let this happen.

This is a decisive moment for my re-election campaign. You have an opportunity to send a loud and clear message to Florida Governor Rick Scott that I have strong, loyal, and generous supporters who will stand with me in my re-election and in the battles we’ll wage together. Now is when I need you.

Well this is certainly an interesting fundraising ploy.  While Scott has no legal role in the reshaping of state legislative districts he does have veto power over congressional redistricting. But does anyone really believe that GOP lawmakers are going to give Deutch a break because he raises a lot of money?

Hardly.

The best thing going for Deutch is that the GOP will probably be happy to give him as many Democrats as they can squeeze into his  Palm Beach/Broward district to help protect Republican districts.

But now that Deutch has targeted Scott and the Republicans - maybe the GOP will try to make Deutch's life miserable.

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Art by West Palm Beach artist Patrick Crowley

Obama goes to Miami Monday drivers will be delighted

 
Rush hour is going to be ugly in Miami Monday with Air Force One expected to land at Miami International Airport right in the midst of drivers trying to get home from work.

President Obama will spend Monday evening raising money for his reelection campaign at the Adrienne Arsht Center on Biscayne Boulevard. Minimum price is $250 but Crowley Political Report hears that Miami Young Democrats are peddling some tickets for as low as $44.  We suspect those folks are not going to be very close to the action.

A few recent conversations with Florida Democrats suggests to Crowley Poltical Report that there is some unhappiness with the president.  We're not talking policy differences - and there are plenty of those - these folks think Obama is not spending enough quality time in the Sunshine State. They  say Obama has not done enough to nurture his political base here.

Obama won't be doing any better on this trip. He's gone the next morning - leaving MIA just as rush hour is ending.

Let the honking begin.

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Art by West Palm Beach artist Patrick Crowley

Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz to be DNC chair

BREAKING NEWS: Politico is reporting the Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz has been chosen by President Obama to lead the Democratic National Committee.

Sources told Politico that the Broward County Democrat was chosen because of "her strength as a fund-raiser and as a television messenger, and for her clout in the crucial swing state of Florida"

 
"The final choice  came down to her and former Ohio governor Ted Strickland, the sources said."

Her selection should cast aside any doubts that the Obama 2012 campaign is determined to win the Sunshine State. And it should be comforting news to Florida U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson who has been targeted by the GOP for defeat in 2012.

A very liberal and outspoken Democrat, Wasserman Schultz, 44, was first elected to Congress in 2004. She quickly became an outspokenadvocate for a host of Democratic issues. She has also been a popular figure on cable news shows where she is not afraid to be combative.

In 2009, Wasserman Schultz announced that she was successfully battling breast cancer.

Born in Long Island, New York, She attended the University of Florida and graduated with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science in 1988 and with a Master’s Degree in 1990.

She is married to Steve Schultz and they have three children.

Lois Frankel throws a helluva punch can Allen West take it?

 
Crowley Political Report has been observing Lois Frankel for more than 20 years and one thing is certain - she is one tough campaigner.

In fact, she can be downright mean spirited without much provocation. And often Frankel gets a pass with people rolling their eyes and saying, "oh that's just Lois."

Yesterday, Frankel announced that she is going to run against Republican Florida Congressman Allen West in 2012.  And she is expected - at least at first - to get serious backing from Florida and national Democrats who would dearly like to take back the District 22 seat.

Frankel began her political career in 1986 as a state legislator where she was known in the House as a fiesty, often brittle, liberal Democrat. 

In 1992, a redistricting year, Frankel decided to run for Congress in a seat that had been carved out as a minority-leaning seat.  Much of the black community - eager for their first opportunity to elect an African American congressman from South Florida, bristled at Frankel's entry into the race.

They wondered why she didn't run in another district.

Making matters worse, Frankel started throwing punches at her Democratic primary opponent, Alcee Hastings, a beloved figure in the black community.

Hastings, in carefully orchestrated outburst, retaliated - in front of this reporter at time -  by calling Frankel, "a racist bitch."

Obama will be in Miami Beach Friday to raise money for Bill Nelson

President Barack Obama will travel to Miami Beach Friday to raise a few bucks for Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson who is being targeted by Republicans in 2012.

Sen. Patty Murray, chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will also be at the home of Judith and Michael Adler where the reception and dinner is taking place.

Michael Adler is chairman and CEO of The Adler Group, a real estate development and investment company. Adler has contributed hundreds-of-thousands to Democrats over the years.

Nelson won't get all the cash raised at the event. He has to split it with DSCC.

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Art by Patrick Crowley

Tea Party takes on Florida's capital - Wisconsin again?

 

Emails are flying inviting Tea Party supporters to travel to Tallahassee to fight for pension reform and less government spending.

Everett Wilkinson of the South Florida Tea Party is telling "dear patriots" that, "if you thought we were going to take our country back without a fight, you were wrong."

 He continues:  Like many of you I watched this past week as "union thugs" try to terrorize Wisconsin Legislators into giving way to immoral plunder of future generations’ prosperity. There are many teachers and union members who are in the tea party or agree with us. The Liberals are doing all they can to use them against us. The reality is that our country is broke and have to cut spending.

...Today the battle is Wisconsin, however in just a few weeks the battle will be here in Florida.

Even Jeb Bush wonders what Rick Scott is doing

Well that didn't take long.

One day after tossing out plans for a Tampa-to-Orlando high speed rail train, a veto-proof majority of Florida senators - Democrats and Republicans - sent Scott a message that basically asked - "are you nuts?"

At the same time, according to PolitiJax, former Gov. Jeb Bush was left scratching his head about Scott's decision.

"I'm surprised he didn't let the process go to a conclusion...before pulling the plug," Bush said, saying he was somewhat taken aback by Scott's timing.

This morning, Crowley Political Report warned that Gov. Rick Scott that he would do serious damage to his relationship with the Florida Legislature - not just because of his decision about the train but because he didn't bother to tell legislative leaders about his decision.

Keep in mind - we're talking about a House and Senate controlled by his own party. And with the GOP holding veto-proof majorities in both chambers it appeared that Democrats would attend the legislative session as mere spectators.

Now, Scott has succeeded in building a veto-proof coalition of Republican and Democratic senators.

Democrats begin ads targeting Allen West

 
Well that didn't take long.

Republican Congressman Allen West has been in office less than 30 days and Democrats are already beginning a radio, email and web campaign in their effort to oust him from office in 2012.

The ads are being launched this week by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee which is targeting 19 Republican members of congress including another South Florida freshman - David Rivera.

There is plenty of fodder for Democrats to go after Rivera considering he is under investigation by several Florida agencies questioning his finances. Even the GOP leadership is a bit leery of being too close to Rivera until the investigations are completed.

Meanwhile "I'm a tough guy" West has a long litany of making what can most generously be described as strong statements about our "tyrannical government."

As we like to say here at Crowley Political Report - Elections may come and go but politics never stops.

Art by Patrick Crowley