Crowley Political Report

Hasner statement to supporters about leaving Senate race

Adam Hasner makes if official that he is dropping out of the Florida Republican primary for U.S. Senate and, as has been widely reported, will run for a congressional seat instead. Here's his statement to supporters:

As you know, I have spent the last year on the campaign trail for U.S. Senate, traveling our amazing, diverse and beautiful state.  It has been a journey Jillian and I will always treasure, and we have been blessed with the opportunity to meet and get to know so many great people, and to learn from them. I have been deeply honored by the support, friendship and endorsements of so many Floridians from every corner of the state.

The call to serve my community and my country continues, but the journey has taken us in a new direction.

Today, I am announcing my intention to run as the Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives for the 22nd Congressional District of Florida.  My friend Congressman Allen West and I spoke last night, and he offered me his counsel, and I am honored to accept his endorsement in this race.  Allen West's service to our nation did not end when he left the US Army; it continues everyday he leads in the United States House.

I look forward to serving with him.

For 8 years, I served this community in the Florida House of Representatives.  I look forward to a spirited contest of ideas in the 22nd District, and to working every day to once again represent my friends and neighbors in Palm Beach and Broward Counties as a passionate advocate for jobs and economic growth, for a Congress that lives within its means and plays by the rules it sets for our citizens, for a balanced budget that protects and reforms entitlements and for a strong national defense that honors our commitments to our allies abroad, especially Israel.

I am a conservative and a proud Republican, but I will go to Washington to oppose Democrats and Republicans who put their own self interest above the interests of our country. I do not expect the work to be easy, or the hours to be short.  I won my first race by knocking on over 10,000 doors, taking my grassroots message to the most Democratic precincts in a blue county. I'm ready to do it again, and give the new 22nd District a new fighter in Washington who puts principle before politics.

 PS: This race isn't as big as the United States Senate contest, but I still need your support to hold this seat for the Republicans.  Nancy Pelosi, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Barack Obama will do everything they can to keep a strong, principled conservative out of Congress.  In order to kick off my campaign with a strong start, I need your financial investment of $100, $50, or even $25.00

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Adam Hasner challenges George LeMieux and Connie Mack to ten debates

Later this month we are going to get some important information about Florida's Republican U.S. Senate primary.

That's when each of the candidates will report how much money they raised during the final three months of 2011. It is an important quarter for all three of candidates because if any one of them fails to meet expectations, pressure will build for someone to drop out of the race.

Which begs the question - who will drop out first?

Meanwhile, candidate Adam Hasner sent a cheery letter to rivals George LeMieux and Connie Mack inviting them to participate in ten, 90-minute debates.

"I believe in order to save the miracle of the United States of America - "  

Let's pause there for a moment. "Save the miracle?"  Who writes this stuff?

Crowley Political Report would humbly suggest that after defeating the British, surviving the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II and decades of bad sitcoms, history tells us things really aren't that bad in comparision to the past.

Ok, back to the letter.

" - beating Bill Nelson is not enough. We need a conservative majority in the United States Senate that will challenge the Democrats, and the Republicans who too often act like them."

At this point, Hasner invites his rivals to ten debates "spread out across Florida's media markets between now and July."

Now here's a hint that Hasner may not make a good showing when he makes his quarterly finance report. 

"You have both earned reputations as proven fundraisers and skilled politicians with considerable support from the power bases in Washington and Tallahassee. I am realistic about the challenges our grassroots campaign will face in trying to compete with you."

At this point you get the promise to run "an issues oriented campaign which focuses on the substantive differences between us."

Hasner closes his two-page letter by suggesting it would be fine if Mike McAlister and Craig Miller were invited to the debates.

Ten debates would be great. Wonder if the other folks will respond to Hasner.

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Adam Hasner new campaign video

Times are tough for Florida U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hasner. Just as it looked like he had a chance to edge out George LeMieux for the nomination, Congressman Connie Mack pops up and says he thinks he'd like to have the GOP nod.

Recent polls show Hasner at 2 percent. He is even behind former U.S. Army Col. Mike McCalister who has shown a singular lack of understanding about Florida politics.

LeMieux, who was appointed to the Senate by former Gov. Charlie Crist to finish the term of Mel Martinez, has struggled to win conservative Republicans and Tea Party voters who loathe Crist and will never forgive LeMieux for being his pal.

A Quinnipiac University poll last week of Florida GOP voters found 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

How solid are those numbers? We won't know until Mack actually starts campaigning and voters get  better look at him. 

Meanwhile, Hasner offered up this new campaign video today. One suggestion - don't let your candidate sit in back seat. Put him right up there in the front passenger seat so he doesn't look like he has a chauffeur.

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Why the Quinnipiac poll goes too far in looking at the Florida Senate race

Florida Republican voters can stay home next year because the nominee for U.S. Senate has already been decided, according to Quinnipiac University.

In fact, the Q's assistant director, Peter Brown, suggests that Congressman Connie Mack has such a formidable lead over his rivals - Adam Hasner, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister - that they should quit now.

Really?

“Although 45 percent of GOP voters, including 59 percent of GOP women, say they are undecided, Mack becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination,” Brown said.  “Mack’s candidacy may force the other GOP contenders to reconsider whether they want to stay in the race.”

That tidbit comes from the Quinnipiac press release about the survey results.

There is no question that the poll suggests that 30 seconds after Mack entered the race he jumped into a huge lead.   The survey of 513 registered Republicans (margin of error 4.3), shows 32 percent would vote for Mack if the election were held today. LeMieux was at 9 percent, McCalister, 6 percent and Hasner, 2 percent.

Yes, this is good news for Mack.  Clearly his name recognition - even if some of those voters only know his father, former U.S. Sen. Connie Mack - is a big help.  Mack can now go to potential donors and tell them it's time to get on board.

And the poll results are particularly dismal for Hasner who falls behind the unimpressive campaign of McCalister. As for LeMieux, if the poll is right, the former U.S. Senator continues to have a tough time convincing Florida Republicans that he deserves to go back to Washington.

But is Brown right to draw the conclusion that Mack is so strong the other candidates should consider quitting?

Nope.

Brown's comments about Quinnipiac polls have increasingly had little to do with political reality. He tends to offer opinions that seem out character for what should be an analytical look at the polling results

For example, in this poll, the Q once again looks at Florida Gov. Rick Scott's job approval  (36 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove) .

Brown describes those numbers with "Scott’s job approval remains in the toilet."  

Hardly an academic approach.

The poll suggests that Mack (40 percent)  and Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson (42 percent)  are in a dead heat.

Brown concludes:  “The fact that Mack is essentially tied with Nelson, who has been a statewide political figure for two decades, should set off warning bells at Democratic headquarters.”

Perhaps, but Brown jumps to a conclusion that a single poll, a year before the election, does not necessarily support. 

Finally, Brown gives us this tidbit:

“In a race as close as the Nelson-Mack affair could become, how President Barack Obama does in the Sunshine State in his re-election could play a major role in deciding who wins the Senate seat,” said Brown.

While Crowley Political Report is delighted to have Brown's opinion, it must be noted that there is nothing in the Q-poll that asks anything about Obama or his impact on the Florida U.S. Senate race in 2012.

The Quinnipiac Poll can be a useful look at a moment-in-time in the campaign when it sticks to the polls results. The meaningless commentary, however, casts doubts on the university's ability to understand its own data.

 

 

 

 

LeMieux takes shot at Nelson and Mack but ignores Hasner

Crowley Political Report wonders if this new web ad by former U.S. Senator George LeMieux is not in fact taking hard shot at Adam Hasner.

How you ask?

After all,  the ad talks about Republican Congressman Connie Mack, the newest entry in the GOP primary for Florida U.S. Senate, and Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson.

Not a word about Republican Adam Hasner.

Perhaps the not so subtle message here is that Hasner is not to be taken seriously. By targeting Mack, who has yet to formally announce his campaign, and Nelson, LeMieux seems to be conveying that he may be a tad more worried about Mack than Hasner.

Should he be?

At this point, we need to hear a lot more from the Mack folks before voters can take him seriously.

Here's the LeMieux video:

 

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George LeMieux fires first shot at Connie Mack

Well that didn't take long. Less than 24 hours after Congressman Connie Mack entered the Florida Republican campaign for U.S. Senate, George LeMieux sent an email to supporters criticizing Mack's record.

But first, LeMieux welcomes Mack to the race. A nice gesture but Crowley Political Report suspects LeMieux feels otherwise.

 Here's the email:

Dear xxxx,

You may have heard the recent news that Congressman Connie Mack is likely to join the Republican field as one of my competitors for US Senate.

Connie is a friend.  His father was an outstanding US Senator for whom I have great respect.  I welcome Congressman Mack to the race, and look forward to detailed debates on the issues and our records.

This race is about the critical challenges facing our country, our economy, and Washington’s disastrous fiscal policies.  It is essential that Florida Republicans choose a nominee in 2012 with a record that stands in stark contrast to that of liberal incumbent Bill Nelson.

While Congressman Mack has done some good things in Washington, he will have to explain to Floridians why he voted in favor of raising his own pay several times, and supported thousands of wasteful earmark projects, including the Bridge to Nowhere, funding for the Connecticut Aquarium and Kentucky Tourism, and the 2005 Highway Bill that included 6,376 earmarks worth $24 billion. At a time when Washington needs real budget and spending reform, Connie Mack's record shows him to be more of the problem than the solution.

Click here to learn more about how my record compares with Congressman Mack and Senator Nelson's records.

 

Connie Mack joins Florida Senate race - What happens to LeMieux and Hasner?

Florida Congressman Connie Mack caused a Twitter explosion last night after the Miami Herald's Marc Caputo reported that Mack will enter Florida's U.S. Senate race.

This is not good news for Adam Hasner and George LeMieux. 

Give credit to the Hasner folks, they got off their tweets a lot faster than the LeMieux folks.

About 9:3o p.m., the slightly dosing TwitterWorld erupted with this tweet:

Marc Caputo - Reconsideration alert: Connie Mack to enter US Senate race hrld.us/vOyRIg

A few minutes later:

SaintPetersblog Peter Schorsch - Whoa! Connie Mack to enter US Senate race (via @marcacaputo)

debitking Nelsa - Ummm? Really? RT@umarsattar  HUGE NEWS: Connie Mack to enter FlSen race.

 Abel Harding - Wow. RT @MarcACaputo: Reconsideration alert: Connie Mack to enter US Senate race

As the tweets gather steam, the first reactions come from the Hasner team:

 Alberto Martinez - Game on. RT @MarcACaputo Reconsideration alert: Connie Mack to enter US Senate race

Christian Camara - No Reconsideration alert: I'll continue supporting @AdamHasner, since hes been a loyal conservative and only candidate that supported Rubio.

POLITICO picks it up:

Ben Smith – Connie Mack jumping in to Fl Sen

Caputo adds to the drama:

MarcACaputo - Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos, who was endorsed by Connie Mack, is scheduled to have a Connie Mack fundraiser

The word spreads and then the speculation begins:

Abel Harding - Will be interesting to watch who lines up behind @ConnieMackIV out of the starting gate. Will LeMieux lose endorsements, donors?

Jennifer Duffy - With Rep. Connie Mack poised to jump into #FlSen,  this race just got A LOT more interesting

CrowleyReport - Who does Connie Mack hurt more - LeMieux or Hasner?

An hour into Caputo's original report, tweets from national news organizations are picking up. Speculation continues and Hasner's folks offer this:

TheRickWilson - With Rep. Connie Mack poised to jump into #Fl Sen this race just got A LOT more interesting. Over/under on when @george lemieux  leaves the race to spend more time with his law firm?

DJGroup David Johnson - Notice eerie silence from the Fans o'George tonight. Usually they are tweetin themselves into tizzy

By midnight, the tweets became a trickle.

But the political drama started last night by Cornelius McGillicuddy IV, once again proves that Florida politics is always full of surprises.