Crowley Political Report

Jim Greer blames Florida Republican leaders for his downfall

Tampa television station WTSP is airing a two-part series on the downfall of former Florida Republican Party chairman Jim Greer.

Part 2 is the most interesting. The reporter, Mike Deeson, gives Greer free rein. If Greer was challenged about any of his assertions, viewers don't see it. Deeson also interviews Greer's wife, Lisa, Greer attorney Cheney Mason, and other Greer supporters.

An excerpt:

Oviedo, FL - Money, greed and political backstabbing appeared to have been commonplace in the Florida Republican Party's effort to oust former Chairman Jim Greer and undermine former Governor Charlie Crist's Senate bid.

Greer, who ended up in jail, has never talked about the inner workings of the Republican Party until now.

When 10 News asked Greer how this incident affected his life a year later, Greer choked up. He couldn't talk for more than 20 seconds and finally said, "Well, I can't get a job and I have no money to take care of my family because I have to give it all to my attorneys."

Greer says his problems began when he fired party fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke. O'Rourke was making $30,000 a month and a 10% commission on everything she brought in.

Greer says he underestimated her ties to the conservative wing of the party and influential lobbyists.

Jeb Bush does not rule out backing a candidate in U.S. Senate race

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, when asked by Crowley Political Report whether he planned to endorse a candidate in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate,  said today he is "not intending to get involved but circumstances can change."

That leaves the door wide open for Bush to lend his name to one of the candidates. But which one?

A Bush endorsement in the race would have a powerful impact on the outcome. While Bush did not indicate which way he would lean, a big clue came today when his closest political confident, Sally Bradshaw, announced that she is backing former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Those who have watched Bush and Bradshaw work together believe that Bradshaw would be unlikely to back Hasner without at least a tacit nod from Bush.

Another dynamic at work is that Hasner's wife, Jillian Inmon Hasner, worked on Bush's campaigns and in his administration. She also worked for former President George W. Bush's campaigns. She most recently was campaign manager for Meg Whitman's unsuccessful bid to be California governor.

The Bush family believes in loyalty and Jeb Bush stays close to many of those who helped him with his political career.

Bush over the last few years has made it clear that he was not terribly fond of former Gov. Charlie Crist - even before Crist left the Republican Party.  Does that ill-feeling spread to George LeMieux, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Crist?

Odds are that Bush will not make an endorsement until late in the campaign. If Bush endorses Hasner, many Florida Republicans are likely to follow his lead.

Hasner still has a long way to go. Bush will not hand him an endorsement unless Hasner proves he is a viable candidate - which means raising enough money to be competitive, not making any major mistakes, and doing well in the polls.

If Bush endorses Hasner, it will be interesting to see how the LeMieux campaign counteracts it. Of course the biggest surprise would be if Bush endorsed LeMieux.

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Allen West says no. Mike McCalister says oops. George LeMeiux explains.

A Florida Republican political operative said to Crowley Political Report recently that he has never seen such a bunch of amateurs running some of the U.S. senate campaigns.

Tis a bit harsh.

Still, it has been an interesting few days for Florida senate watchers.

NO.

The big headline is that Allen West finally gave a firm "no" - to the question of whether he would enter the senate race.

That huge sigh-of-relief you hear is coming from Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Mike McCalister and Craig Miller who certainly trembled at the idea of West getting in the race. Loved by Tea Party voters and sitting on far more cash than any of the other candidates, West would have rocketed into top contender status.

After mulling the idea a bit, West concluded he would rather run for a second term in the 22nd congressional district.

"I believe the place where I can best effect the needed change is from the people's House — the House of Representatives," West said in a statement.  "I have been given one of the highest honors to serve in the House of Representatives, and I will continue to serve the citizens in that capacity."

OOPS.

That basically was the explanation that McCalister offered after the Miami Herald's Marc Caputo caught him on camera fibbing about whether he had testified before Congress while serving in the Army.

Video of the former colonel claiming he testified before Congress is out there on YouTube. Caputo asked McCalister about those claims after Saturday's candidate forum in Orlando. McCalister denied ever saying he testified before Congress.

By Monday, he was backing off with a petulant written statement in which he grudgingly admits: "Although I didn’t recall saying it when asked by the reporter, I did say that I testified."

EXPLAINING.

LeMieux took several swipes at his senate race rivals during a recent meeting with Sarasota County Republicans.

Should Charlie Crist endorse George LeMieux or Adam Hasner?

 
Consider the possibilities of Charlie Crist endorsement in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.

Sure, you could argue that an endorsement from the former Florida governor would be worthless. And there is little doubt that most Republicans want little to do with Crist - especially the Tea Party faction.

On the other hand, a Crist endorsement would be an interesting political ploy.

Imagine if Crist endorsed Adam Hasner. That would be a wonderful thing for George LeMieux who is being portrayed by Hasner as Crist's twin brother.

Florida Senate race looking for a frontrunner

 
Crowley Political Report drops off the grid for a few days and the next thing you know there is a shake-up in Florida's U.S. Senate race. Or was there?

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination with the feeble excuse that he just now discovered that running for statewide office while being senate president is very time-consuming.

Really?

Of course, that excuse is nonsense. There is lots of speculation that Haridopolos will soon be embroiled in the legal problems of ousted and arrested former state GOP chairman Jim Greer. He is scheduled to give a deposition in the case next month.

Whatever the real reason for Hariodopolos' hasty departure from the race, the fact is that he was very unlikely to win the nomination.   And while everyone, including Gov. Rick Scott, went through the motions of wishing Haridopolos a fond farewell from the race, seconds after he dropped out the scrambling for position began.

If you're anybody of importance in Florida GOP circles who supported Haridopolos,  your phone is already ringing with calls from former  substitute U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Neither Hasner nor LeMieux have shown a commanding presence at this point.

Helping Bill Nelson, Charlie Crist testifies, Rick Scott's a cowboy

Busy day in Florida politics so let's do a quick round-up.

Vice President Joe Biden is in the Sunshine State helping to raise money for Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson who has a very large target on his back.

Republicans believe they can take Nelson's seat in the 2012 election and there are already a handful of potential GOP candidates - Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Mike Haridopolos and some unknown filthy rich guy hovering in the background.

Biden is going to the Winter Park home of developer Alan Ginsburg and then on to Tampa for another Nelson fundraiser.

Meanwhile, former govenor and independent U.S. Senate candidate dropped by the courtroom to testify this morning at the trial of former Florida House Speaker Ray Sansom. Crist didn't stay long and his testimony probably didn't add much to the trial.

More on Crist's appearance complete with photo of his swearing to tell the whole truth.

Now the boots.

Clearly Gov. Rick Scott has a huge fondness for cowboy boots and now he has an interesting new pair featuring a large rendition of the state seal.

A picture of the boots and some thoughts from presidential boot maker Rocky Carroll are on The Buzz.

Of course the one question we're still trying to answer about our new governor - is he all hat (in this case boots) and no cattle?

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Will Jeb Bush hug President Obama?

  
It was the hug that shook the nation.

Gov. Charlie Crist and President Barack Obama doing a not quite bromance hug during the President's 2009 visit to Florida.

Crist was hammered by his fellow Republicans. How dare he embrace Obama. For that matter, how dare he be seen in the same state with Obama.

The 2009 hug turned into a 2010 election rout that forced Crist to leave the GOP and attempt a run for the U.S. Senate as an independent.

That hug spawned Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Rick Scott. It even helped energize the Tea Party.

It was a helluva costly hug for Crist.

So how close will Jeb Bush get to Obama during the pair's visit to Miami Central High School?

Here is Florida Republican strategist Alberto Martinez's Twitter response to that very question: He could kiss the Pres and no one would question his conservative cred.

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Rick Scott and inaugural intrigue

 

Today Rick Scott will be sworn in as Florida's 45th governor but the real fun is watching eveyone gathered on the stage.

Crowley Political Report found this photo of the 1971 inauguration of teetotaler Democrat Reubin Askew in top hat on the right. Standing next to him is flamboyant Republican Claude Kirk who had just lost his reelection bid to Askew.

A look back at news reports at the time make it clear that Askew and Kirk did not like each other much.  They were very different men. One can only imagine what each was thinking when this picture was taken.

As you watch the men and women gathered at Scott's inauguration you might wonder what Scott thinks of the career politicians on stage with him.

And what will be going through Gov. Charlie Crist's mind as he sees what could have been a second term going to someone else.

Jeb Bush - Charlie Crist would get crushed

Don't even think about it.

That's the message from former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to soon-to-be-departed Gov. Charlie Crist.

In an interview with Newsmax, Bush said he would not be surprised if Crist tried to run for public office again but if Crist tries to run as a Republican "he'll get crushed."

Bush said flatly that Crist is "not welcome back" into the Republican Party.

Bush also suggests that the Obama administration should take three months off and let things "chill" so that folks can sort things out without facing more controversial proposals.

And Bush once again says he has no interest in running for president in 2012.

Charlie Crist's 4 a.m. phone call and his sister's cross

Some might laugh at Charlie Crist but the continuing saga of his political demise is truely a sad tale.

Florida's no-party governor is at the end of an embarrasing desperate effort to force Democrat Kendrick Meek to quit the U.S. Senate race.

On Friday, Peter Wallsten of the Wall Street Journal, was told by Meek that Crist called him at 4 a.m., leaving a voice mail urging Meek to meet with him.

Kendrick Meek has a long night but Charlie Crist comes up short

This odd election year keeps getting odder.

Democrat Kendrick Meek found himself late last night calling a hasty press conference to deny reports that former President Bill Clinton had urged Meek to drop out of the race to be Florida's next U.S. senator.

"I am in this race until Tuesday 7 o'clock central standard time, " said Meek shortly after 9:35 p.m.

Meek said President Clinton remains a supporter of his campaign and "President Clinton did not ask me to drop out of this race."

About an hour after Meek's statement, President Clinton told CNN that he did not ask Meek to drop out of the race.

But Clinton acknowledged that they talked about Meek dropping out but Clinton did not ask Meek to drop out.

“He was trying to determine what was the best thing for him to do,” Clinton said in an interview with CNN’s Susan Candiotti Thursday. “I knew it was being discussed, people had discussed it on and off… it was no secret.”

Crist - Don't forget me I'm on line 9

If there is anything that symbolizes the fall of No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist it is the closing line in his new campaign ad - "and don't forget to find me on line 9 on your ballot."

Gosh.  It is almost sad.

To think the Charlie Crist was riding so high in 2008 that he was considered a potential vice president.

Now, he has to tell Florida voters to "find me on line 9."

Yes, it is necessary since as a no-party candidate his name is further down the ballot.

Still, it is in its own way, an unintended poignant moment for those who long supported Crist and now are watching the man they followed end his career because he miscalculated his political future.

They must realize that this would be a very different election if Crist has only run for a second term.

 

Does Charlie Crist know it is over?

He was unusually subdued.

Charlie Crist took a couple of gentle shots at Marco Rubio during Tuesday night's debate but there was none of the aggressive, personal attacks that Crist used in the last debate.

Overall, this final debate for the three Florida U.S. Senate candidates was a lofty affair with much discussion about issues confronting the state and the nation.

Crist did steadfastedly ignore Democrat Kendrick Meek in an apparent effort to convince voters that the race is really just between Florida's No-Party governor and Rubio, the Republican candidate.

But that tactic seemed silly with viewers obviously aware that there were three candidates in the race.

This has got to be a very tough week for Crist.  He knows his path to victory is now nearly impossible. In less than 10 months he has gone from a popular governor to a politician without a party or an immediate future.

Which is what made tonight's debate so striking. 

Crist seemed to shift from caustic "heckler" in the last debate two days ago to someone who appeared to be wearily realizng  that tonight's debate would not change his fate on election day.

Art by Patrick Crowley

Charlie Crist fumbles during CNN debate

 
 Charlie Crist sounded desperate.

And maybe he is.

With polls showing him still double digits behind Republican Marco Rubio, Crist's six month journey as a No-Party candidate for Florida U.S. Senate appears to be going nowhere.

During Sunday's CNN/St. Petersburg Times debate, Crist frequently lashed out at Rubio and in the final minutes of the debate Crist interrupted Rubio so often that Rubio, clearly annoyed, called Crist a "heckler."

Both Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek questioned Crist's political honesty. They accused Crist of flip-flopping on the issues just to save his political career.

Crist, a former college quarterback, offered this explanation:

Somebody needs to help Marco Rubio's mom

Last night's Florida senate debate must have been especially frustrating for No Party Gov. Charlie Crist.

You could just tell he wanted to rip into Republican Marco Rubio but the stilted format gave Crist few opportunities to engage Rubio directly.

Rubio got in a nice little dig when he noted that Crist keeps talking about how he would bring warring factions of Senate Democrats and Republicans to the table for peace talks but seems unable to avoid picking fights during the campaign.

Overall the debate was pretty much a rehash of the soundbites that Crist, Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek have been using for months.

There is one point that Rubio keeps raising that makes Crowley Political Report worry about his mom.

Rubio keeps saying that "Social Security is the sole source of income that she has."

Really Marco?

Maybe you should pony up a few bucks to help mom out.

 

Sarah Palin tries to lock it up for Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio may not need the help.

Afterall, he is well ahead in all the polls and there appears to be little chance that No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist or Democrat Kendrick Meek are going to knock Rubio out of the U.S. Senate race.

In fact, you can see a down side to Rubio getting on stage Saturday with Sarah Palin.

Some might argue that Rubio is worried about falling behind his rivals and he wants Palin to give him the final boost he needs to become Florida's next Republican U.S. senator.

That would be nonsense. Rubio has run a nearly flawless campaign. While Crist and Meek flail away at each other, Rubio's hold on first place has been unshakeable.

It should be an  entertaining Saturday in Orlando where Palin will star, Rubio will probably say a few words and their will be shout-outs to other Florida Republican candidates.

The RNC is sponsoring the event at the Orlando World Center Marriott.

Ticket prices range from $20.10 to $1,000 per person.

You can find more information about the event here.

Art by Patrick Crowley

New Crist ad ignores Meek attacks Rubio

Couple of interesting things about this new ad featuring No-Party Gov. Charlie  Crist.

One is that he never mentions Democrat Kendrick Meek. Instead Crist talks about fighting the "right wing party bosses."

Another interesting element is Crist's statement that he is fighting Republican Marco Rubio's "extremist agenda to roll back Roe versus Wade, and cut your Social Security."

Does Crist's Roe v. Wade statement mean he now supports abortion rights?

Here's the ad.

 

A lousy week for Charlie Crist

It was a desperate gamble.

No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist clearly began to realize that there was no way he was going to defeat Republican Marco Rubio in the race to be Florida's next U.S. senator.

Crist and his buddies decided that the only way they could save the campaign would be to force Democrat Kendrick Meek to drop out.

After all, Crist has become for all practical purposes the second Democrat candidate.  If Meek drops out Crist would become the defacto Democratic candidate.

The week started with someone supporting Crist making a patsy out of the Wall Street Journal by getting conservative columnist Stephen Moore to write a bogus column about Meek getting out of the race.

Marco Rubio given 92.4 percent chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight/NYTimes has boosted Republican Marco Rubio's odds of becoming Florida's new U.S. Senator giving him a 92.4 percent chance of victory in the November 2 election.

No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist is  at 6.9 percent and Democrat Kendrick Meek is below 1 percent at .7 percent.

These statistics, according to 538/NYT,  are based on:  100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.

You can find out more here.

Is the Florida senate race over?

At this point the answer appears to be - yes.

Another poll, another big lead for Republican Marco Rubio.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,055 likely Florida voters and found Rubio leading No-Party Gov. Charlie Crist 44-30.  Democrat Kendrick Meek is at a dismal 22 percent.

Unless someone comes up with a bombshell that tears apart Rubio's campaign - it is hard to see how he won't be Florida's next U.S. Senator.

The fact is that candidates with double digit leads three weeks from election day just don't lose.

Would it make any difference if either Crist or Meek dropped out of the race - maybe, but not likely.

It is clear that Crist has lost the magic and Meek never had it.

 Note: All public polling should be taken with a large grain of salt. Read here to find out why.