Crowley Political Report

LeMieux takes shot at Nelson and Mack but ignores Hasner

Crowley Political Report wonders if this new web ad by former U.S. Senator George LeMieux is not in fact taking hard shot at Adam Hasner.

How you ask?

After all,  the ad talks about Republican Congressman Connie Mack, the newest entry in the GOP primary for Florida U.S. Senate, and Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson.

Not a word about Republican Adam Hasner.

Perhaps the not so subtle message here is that Hasner is not to be taken seriously. By targeting Mack, who has yet to formally announce his campaign, and Nelson, LeMieux seems to be conveying that he may be a tad more worried about Mack than Hasner.

Should he be?

At this point, we need to hear a lot more from the Mack folks before voters can take him seriously.

Here's the LeMieux video:

 

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Did George LeMieux make a $150,000 mistake?

Marc Caputo of the Miami Herald took a moment to chat with Jim Greer, the deeply embarassed and criminally charged, former head of the Florida Republican Party about a little financial deal that was arranged for George LeMieux.

The conversation was not pretty.

First, let's all understand that Greer is cranky. He believes a bunch of folks, including LeMieux, threw him under the bus. So, it is not surprising that Greer may no longer be in the mood to defend the folks who cheerfully put him in charge of the party.

But some facts are not in dispute.

Allen West for Senate - the idea is catching on.

Returning yesterday from a trip that took Crowley Political Report to Charleston, Washington, Boston and Chicago, we find that there is surging interest in the idea that Congressman Allen West should run for the U.S. Senate.

This is not a new idea to CPR. On July 12, we wrote:

Seriously, isn't Allen West the best GOP candidate to run against Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson? ... Politics is about money and timing. West has said he is not interested in running for the senate but money and timing suggest there may be no better time than now for the former Army Lt. Colonel.  ... Should West decide to run for the U.S. Senate, much of the GOP field will collapse shortly after his announcement.

More of our July 12 report is here.

On Sunday, West told WPTV-Newschannel-5 program To the Point - "I am running for congressional reelection that is the most important thing right now."

...

Interviewer Michael Williams asked: "Can you be talked into a senate run  in 2012?"

West replied: "Right now, no."

Williams: "Right now no, but you'll leave the door open?"

Allen West takes on Bill Nelson

Allen West always one a bit puzzled.

The Republican Congressman worked himself into self-righteous outrage when Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz took the House floor to talk about the GOP "cut, cap and balance" plan.

During her remarks she said: ". . .President Obama has vowed to veto this bill which ends the Medicare guarantee and incredulously the gentleman from Florida, who represents thousands of Medicare beneficiaries as do I, is supportive of this plan that would increase the cost for Medicare beneficiaries. Unbelievable from a member from South Florida."

When West heard about her remarks, he fired off an email to Wasserman Schultz and House leaders calling her "vile" "despicable" "unprofessional" and other choice descriptions.

West also said, "If you have something to say to me, stop being a coward and say it to my face, otherwise, shut the heck up."

This brings us to Florida Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. After the Senate voted not to take up the House bill today, West sent out this Tweet:

Voting to table Cut, Cap & Balance for fear of passing the Senate is a disgrace. Fl Sen Nelson and the Dems play tricks at Americans expense.

What happened to "say it to my face"?

Oh well.

Perhaps more interesting is that fact that West is taking on Nelson. Is this a hint that he is thinking about running against Nelson.

West has the money and the love 0f the Tea Party. Crowley Political Report suggested in a previous article that West might easily win the GOP primary.

Maybe West will let know if he is interested on Twitter.

 

Florida Senate race looking for a frontrunner

 
Crowley Political Report drops off the grid for a few days and the next thing you know there is a shake-up in Florida's U.S. Senate race. Or was there?

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination with the feeble excuse that he just now discovered that running for statewide office while being senate president is very time-consuming.

Really?

Of course, that excuse is nonsense. There is lots of speculation that Haridopolos will soon be embroiled in the legal problems of ousted and arrested former state GOP chairman Jim Greer. He is scheduled to give a deposition in the case next month.

Whatever the real reason for Hariodopolos' hasty departure from the race, the fact is that he was very unlikely to win the nomination.   And while everyone, including Gov. Rick Scott, went through the motions of wishing Haridopolos a fond farewell from the race, seconds after he dropped out the scrambling for position began.

If you're anybody of importance in Florida GOP circles who supported Haridopolos,  your phone is already ringing with calls from former  substitute U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

Neither Hasner nor LeMieux have shown a commanding presence at this point.

Should Allen West run for the Senate?

Seriously, isn't Allen West the best GOP candidate to run against Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?

As Miami Herald political writer Marc Caputo aptly put it, West has given Florida Republicans 1.5 million reasons why he might be the GOP's best candidate.

As Crowley Political Report noted recently, this stage of the U.S. senate race is all about money. During the 3 month period ending June 30, West raised $1.5 million for his campaign to win reelection to Florida's 22nd congressional district. Toss in the $433,000 West raised during the first three months of the year and he has collected nearly $2 million.

Impressive.

Politics is about money and timing. West has said he is not interested in running for the senate but money and timing suggest there may be no better time than now for the former Army Lt. Colonel.

Republicans love West. Tea Party activists love West. Rush Limbaugh loves West. Conservative independents love West. And most Democrats loathe him.

If you get West, you get someone who doesn't pull his punches and leans extreme. That might not sell in any other election cycle but right now, in the Tea Party controlled Florida Republican Party, extreme sells.

Should West decide to run for the U.S. Senate, much of the GOP field will collapse shortly after his announcement.

Compare West's $1.5 million in the last quarter to the money raised by the existing U.S. Senate candidates - Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos' $900,000, former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux's $950,000, and former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner's $560,000.

Could West defeat Nelson?

Nelson will not be easy for any Republican to defeat. For now, the more interesting political question is whether West will be convinced by his supporters to take a chance on running for GOP senate nomination.

In Florida, anything can happen.

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Florida U.S. Senate race gets more complicated for Republicans

There must be a lot of Republicans who are convinced that Florida Democrat Bill Nelson is not going to be able to hang on to his U.S. Senate seat.

On Tuesday, the Florida GOP gets it fifth candidate for U.S. senate with the addition of Craig Miller, former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouse. Miller is going to fly around the state for a series of airport press conferences with stops in Orlando, Tampa, West Palm Beach, Naples and Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, the latest report in the money primary shows that George LeMieux raised $950,000 during the three month period ending June 30. LeMieux's campaign did not say how much cash former U.S. senator still has in the bank after expenses.

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos fell short of LeMieux's total, raising $900,000. Haridopolos had already raised $2.6 million, so he remains the frontrunner.  Coming in third is former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner who raised $560,000.

Also running for the senate is retired Army Lt.Col. Mike McCallister. He is not expected to raise much money.

Which brings us back to Miller. How seriously should we take him as a statewide candidate?

His first bid for office is not a promising sign. Miller ran for an Orlando congressional seat in 2010 and finished third. To be fair, LeMieux lost his only previous campaign - a state house seat race and he has not been on the ballot since.

What will make Miller a viable candidate?

Cash.

Yup money. And lots of it. Can he get it? Does Miller have his own dough to spend?

Crowley Political Report believes in cash. Having it doesn't mean a candidate is going to win. But not having it almost certainly means a statewide candidate is going to lose.

There are more than 4 million GOP voters in Florida. If only 25 percent vote in the primary that is 1 million voters. If a candidate talked to 1,000 voters every day for 365 days, he would only reach a bit more than one-third of the GOP primary voters.

It takes money to reach voters. And most of that money is spent on television ads. A significant, statewide television buy will cost a candidate more than $1.5 million a week. And you need money for all the things it takes to make a candidate competitive.

That's why, fellow political watchers, you have to keep an eye on the money.

 

Why Obama could lose Florida

Ending with car crashes and a train wreck, the new Republican National Committee ad being shown in Florida more than suggests that the Obama administration has wrecked America.

And the ad takes Obama's 2008 campaign promise of "change" and thows it a back at him. You can see the ad on the next page. Here is the text of the voiceover:

He promised to change direction - $800 billion in stimulus. Trillions for government health care. Two million jobs gone.

Left turn after left turn. America's headed the wrong way fast.

Six million foreclosures. Fourteen trillion in debt. $500 billion in higher taxes. And the worst long term unemployment in generations. Don't let Obama drive us to disaster. Change direction.

This RNC ad basically asks the same questions that Ronald Reagan asked Jimmy Carter during the 1980 election. One week before voters went to the polls, Reagan closed the deal with voters by asking:  "Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment...than there was four years ago?"

Those questions are usually reduced to the simpler, "are you better off than you were four years ago?'

Florida Democratic strategists are worried. Several have told Crowley Political Report that they think  2012 could be very difficult. And for good reason.  There has been little sunshine in the Sunshine State since Barack Obama won the White House. Unemployment remains high. Job propects remain gloomy and signs of an economic recovery are few.

Osama helps Obama, Florida voters want out of Afghanistan and Libya

Looking at today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters reveals a few interesting tidbits that could color the 2012 presidential election.

Sure President Obama inched into a 51 percent approval rating but that is clearly a fragile number. He benefited from the killing of Osama bin Laden and worries about the GOP plan to dismantle Medicare in favor of a voucher plan for medical care.

But there are some clear warning signs in this poll that Floridians could turn on Obama if the case is made that the White House is mired in Afghanistan and Libya.

Fifty-six percent of Florida voters said the U.S. should not be fighting in Afghanistan. Fifty-seven percent oppose our involvement in Libya.

Another interesting number, undoubtedly related to gas prices - 49 percent of Florida voters favor offshore drilling for gas and oil.

In other poll results Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a commanding lead over his three potential GOP rivals.  And voters suggested they know little about the Republican candidates - Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner and George LeMieux.

None of that matters since few voters are paying any real attention to Florida's senate race.

That will happen soon enough.

 

Should Jeb Bush run against Bill Nelson for Senate?

First let's note that any polling down about an election that won't take place until November 2012 is largely worthless.

Second, while favorability ratings are fun to look at, the value of that information is, shall we say, very limited at this point when looked at in context of an election more than 18 months away.

So the newest Public Policy Polling survey is really an exercise in amusement.

But from it we can derive this question - is former Gov. Jeb Bush the only person who has a real chance of defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson?

Crowley Political Report says the answer is "yes" and "no."

Certainly if Bush gets into the race it would be a nightmare for Nelson. It would also be a nightmare for every GOP candidate remotely thinking about running.

Helping Bill Nelson, Charlie Crist testifies, Rick Scott's a cowboy

Busy day in Florida politics so let's do a quick round-up.

Vice President Joe Biden is in the Sunshine State helping to raise money for Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson who has a very large target on his back.

Republicans believe they can take Nelson's seat in the 2012 election and there are already a handful of potential GOP candidates - Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Mike Haridopolos and some unknown filthy rich guy hovering in the background.

Biden is going to the Winter Park home of developer Alan Ginsburg and then on to Tampa for another Nelson fundraiser.

Meanwhile, former govenor and independent U.S. Senate candidate dropped by the courtroom to testify this morning at the trial of former Florida House Speaker Ray Sansom. Crist didn't stay long and his testimony probably didn't add much to the trial.

More on Crist's appearance complete with photo of his swearing to tell the whole truth.

Now the boots.

Clearly Gov. Rick Scott has a huge fondness for cowboy boots and now he has an interesting new pair featuring a large rendition of the state seal.

A picture of the boots and some thoughts from presidential boot maker Rocky Carroll are on The Buzz.

Of course the one question we're still trying to answer about our new governor - is he all hat (in this case boots) and no cattle?

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Rick Scott to greet President Obama in Miami

Earlier Crowley Political Report asked the question - will Jeb Bush hug Obama? 

Today is the big day. President Obama makes his way to Miami where he will tour Miami Central High School with Bush. Both men have pushed for making dramatic changes to education.

Now, the early word is that Florida Gov. Rick Scott will greet Obama when Air Force One lands in Miami. Scott does not strike us as the hugger type so we would be surprised if the two men embrace.

After the school tour, Obama is attending two fundraisers for Bill Nelson and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. One will be at the Fountainbleu and the other is at the Miami Beach home of Michael Adler.

More about the Adler event here.

Obama will be in Miami Beach Friday to raise money for Bill Nelson

President Barack Obama will travel to Miami Beach Friday to raise a few bucks for Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson who is being targeted by Republicans in 2012.

Sen. Patty Murray, chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will also be at the home of Judith and Michael Adler where the reception and dinner is taking place.

Michael Adler is chairman and CEO of The Adler Group, a real estate development and investment company. Adler has contributed hundreds-of-thousands to Democrats over the years.

Nelson won't get all the cash raised at the event. He has to split it with DSCC.

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Art by Patrick Crowley