Crowley Political Report

Chris Christie dropping by Palm Beach to pick up a few bucks

Poor Chris Christie. After failing to pass the American Conservative Union's purity test (is this a bit like Florida's new drug test for welfare recipients?), the New Jersey governor is going to Palm Beach to see if he still has any friends.

Never mind that the folks in New Jersey think their governor is swell. In fact, just about everybody in New Jersey likes Christie - one poll has him at 92 percent, Florida Gov. Rick Scott would cut off his right hand to have poll numbers like that.

Well if you think conservatives were ticked off when former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist hugged
President Barack Obama, you won't believe the lather they are in now because Christie accepted federal money (that omg might raise the deficit) to help pay for Sandy relief for the devastated home and business owners in his state.

The final straw for Christie was when he decided to let New Jersey join the Medicaid expansion that is part of Obamacare. This dual shock means that Christie, one of the rock stars of the 2012 ACU sponsored Conservative Political Action Conference, is persona non-grata at this year's CPAC gathering.

Apparently one key to being invited to speak is be a loser. Among the three dozen plus speakers are these luminaries from the 2012 campaign:

Mitt Romney - lost.

Newt Gingrich - lost.

Rick Perry - lost.

Paul Ryan - lost. (Okay he kept is House seat).

Rick Santorum - lost.

Allen West - lost.

And of course you get Wayne LaPierre (NRA), David Keene (NRA) Sarah Palin, and Rand Paul.

The list also includes Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Bobby Jindal among the speakers. One suspects they don't have a lot in common with Allen West.

South Florida could end it for Obama tonight

Hillsborough may be Florida's number one swing county but regardless of what happens there, President Obama could lose the Sunshine State if he fails to get big numbers in South Florida.

In 2008, Obama got 529,000 votes from the big South Florida counties - Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Half of those votes came from one county - Broward where Obama got 255,000 votes. Miami-Dade gave him 139,000 votes and Palm Beach 135,000 votes.

Obama defeated Republican John McCain by 237,000 votes statewide. If Obama's vote count in South Florida slips below 400,000 it will be a sign that he is in big trouble. In 2000, Al Gore got on 366,000 votes from those three counties. In 2004, John Kerry got 373,000 votes. Both men lost to George W. Bush.

Other counties to watch:

In 2008 Obama won Alachua by 27,000 votes, Orange by 87,000, Leon by 36,000 and Hillborough by 36,000. If those margins start to slip, Obama could lose the state.

For Mitt Romney watch these counties where McCain won. Romney will need to hold or improve on McCain's margins: Duval, 8,000 votes, Escambia, 30,000, Indian River 11,000, Martin 11,000, Marion 19,000, Santa Rosa, 36,000, St. Johns, 34,000, St. Lucie 15,000, Lee, 28,000.

 

 

Obama ad uses GM and Chrysler to slam Romney

This Obama campaign ad is a counter to a Romney ad that says American auto jobs are being moved to China. In the Obama ad, quote are used from GM and Chryler debunking the Romney ad. 

From the Obama ad: "GM calls latest Romney auto ad, 'politics at its cynical worst.'"  Chryler calls Romney's assertion "not true." The Obama ad tosses in PolitiFact and the Washington Post for good measure.

 

Is Obama making us the United State of China?

Yup, back with another new ad from Karl Rove and American Crossroads. In this little ditty, Rove would like voters to believe that we are bowing to China - you know where all those iPhone are built.

Apparently if you own an iPhone or other item made in China you are contributing to our demise. Start tossing that stuff out.

 

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American Crossroads and small businesses

Karl Rove is very busy lad these days. If Obama wins, Rove and his American Crossroads Super PAC would be among the big losers. Here's another new ad.

 

 

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Clint Eastwood does a 30 for Romney

Most celebrities that you meet during a campaign are very passionate about the candidate or cause they support but frequently don't really have a clue. They tend to be strident and ill-informed. There are certainly exceptions. 

They also tend to perform better for a candidate when they have a script. You saw Clint Eastwood at the Republican National Convention without a script. Here you can see him with one. Is he the execption to the ususal celebrity endorser?

This ad comes from the Karl Rove Super Pac - American Crossroads.

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Tampa Bay Times endorses Barack Obama

No one should be surprised that the Tampa Bay Times has endorsed President Obama for a second term. The newspaper is long known for its thoughtful, liberal editorial view and the odds of Mitt Romney getting the endorsement were always nil.

Still, one should take the Times endorsement seriously. While the I-4 corridor is vital to the presidential election - no section is more vital than the one that goes through Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.

Florida newspaper endorsements are evenly split with Romney picking up the Orlando Sentinel yesterday.

It is a shame that neither newspaper wanted to wait until the finish of Monday's debate. 

Some excerpts from the Times editorial:

This is not the time to reverse course and return to the failed policies of the past. Without hesitation, the Tampa Bay Times recommends Barack Obama for re-election as president.

...

By many measures, the economy is improving steadily even if growth remains painfully slow. There have been 31 straight months of job growth, and more than 5 million private sector jobs have been created. The unemployment rate is down to 7.8 percent — not great, but the same as when Obama took office.

...

There is still too much economic pain, but America is better off than most of the rest of the industrialized world.

Orlando Sentinel endorses Romney does it matter

Republicans may hate the "main stream media" but right now they are in love with the Orlando Sentinel which endorsed Mitt Romney for president and slammed President Obama for what it describes as his lack of leadership.

Does the endorsement matter?

Yes.

Especially if Romney and his surrogrates move quickly to get ads up on television touting the Sentinel's endorsement.  Unless another major Florida newspaper endorses Obama in the next couple of days, Romney will have bragging rights all to himself.

And with Florida's fragile voters it could make a difference. Florida is no sure thing for the Democrats and Obama's lead has always been tenuous. 

The Sentinel may help Romney gain momentum and sway independent voters in the critical I-4 corridor.

Some excerpts from the endorsement:

We have little confidence that Obama would be more successful managing the economy and the budget in the next four years. For that reason, though we endorsed him in 2008, we are recommending Romney in this race.

...

Other presidents have succeeded even with the other party controlling Capitol Hill. Democrat Bill Clinton presided over an economic boom and balanced the budget working with Republicans. Leaders find a way.

...

The next president is likely to be dealing with a Congress where at least one, if not both, chambers are controlled by Republicans. It verges on magical thinking to expect Obama to get different results in the next four years.

Does Cuba really matter in the presidential campaign?

This first appeared in Columbia Journalism Review.

By Brian E. Crowley

FLORIDA — Does Cuba really matter?

If asked that question by a reporter, both President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney would likely reply: Yes, absolutely.

Unfortunately, the question of whether Cuba matters—and how, and to whom—is rarely explored in the media, even as Cuba’s role in shaping politics in this key swing state is taken for granted.

Instead, most reporters take the easy way out, especially those from outside Florida. The reporting will generally be something like this:

Presidential candidate X came to South Florida today to assure Cuban-Americans that if elected he will strongly oppose the Castro regime and refuse to lift the embargo until human rights and freedom are restored. Florida’s Cuban exile community is one of this swing-state’s most important voting blocs.

This is careless and cliché-laden reporting. And while President Obama’s shifts in policy and rhetoric have introduced a slightly different frame, too much is obscured when reporters accept politicians’ sound bites, whether it’s Mitt Romney’s declaration that “the regime will feel the full weight of American resolve” or Obama’s promise that he will “send a signal that we are prepared to show flexibility and not be stuck in a cold war mentality dating back to when I was born.”

The United States embargo against Cuba is a complex topic that creates deep divisions in Congress and, perhaps more importantly, within the Cuban-American community. Agricultural interests and other industries outside of Florida have long questioned the validity of continuing the embargo—but have largely failed in their efforts to shift the policy because of the influence of hard-core, pro-embargo Cuban-Americans who long ago learned how to wield political power.

Obama and Romney have more courage than Nelson and Mack

No matter what you think about Barack Obama and Mitt Romney you have to give them credit - they are willing to debate each other. Not once but three times before a national audience. And as much as their strategists may try to control the event, once the camera is on - the two men are on their own.

Everything is on the line for them. Whichever one of them loses this election, it will be the end of his political career. We may not want to have a moment of silence for them at the start of this first debate but we might want to have a silent moment of respect for this important element of our democracy.

Unfortunately, the only silence in Florida is coming from the candidates. Florida's U.S. Senate candidates -  Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie Mack - have agreed to just a single debate.

After much squabbling, they will get together on Oct 17 for a debate that will be broadcast on many Florida television stations. One debate. That's it. 

That's wrong.

Florida's voters deserve better. Our politicians enjoy telling us about their courage and leadership but cowering behind 30-second political ads is neither courageous nor the sign of a leader. 

Sadly, Nelson and Mack are not the only pols who fear debates. We see it in congressional races and local races. It's a shame. Even personal contact with voters is limited largely to friendly crowds who already agree. 

Florida voters deserve better. They deserve to hear from their candidates. They deserve to have more than one debate. 

Charlie Crist endorses Barack Obama, rips GOP

Tropical Storm Crist came squalling into Tampa Bay Sunday with a column in the Tampa Bay Times endorsing Barack Obama for president and questioning the "extreme right" of the Republican Party.

Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist left the GOP two years ago in an ill-fated effort to win the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Marco Rubio. Crist, who at the time was considered a moderate Republican (depsite his nickname Chain Gang Charlie), is now loathed by the GOP establishment.

There is wide speculation that Crist will try to make a comeback by running for governor as a Democrat in 2014. It would be an amazing trick if Crist can pull it off. Others believe that Crist has no intention of getting back into politics and is simply enjoying an opporturnity to taunt his tormentors.

Crist's endorsement comes as the Republican Natonal Convention delegates await the arrival of Hurricane Isaac in the Tampa Bay area. The convention organizers pulled the plug on Monday's opening events because of the storm. 

In his column, Crist writes:

As Republicans gather in Tampa to nominate Mitt Romney, Americans can expect to hear tales of how President Obama has failed to work with their party or turn the economy around.

But an element of their party has pitched so far to the extreme right on issues important to women, immigrants, seniors and students that they've proven incapable of governing for the people. Look no further than the inclusion of the Akin amendment in the Republican Party platform, which bans abortion, even for rape victims.

The truth is that the party has failed to demonstrate the kind of leadership or seriousness voters deserve.

Read the entire Tampa Bay Times column here.

 

New Romney ad suggests Obama not a fan of Israel

In a new ad targeted to Jewish voters - a key group for President Obama in South Florida - Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney attempts to leave the impression that Obama is not a fan of Israel.

Romney points out that Obama has not visited Israel since becoming president - but that has been common practice among both Republican and Democratic presidents. And Romney again offers his strong support for the idea that Jerusalem should be the capital of Israel

The Obama administration has followed the practice of previous administrations by being more nuanced about the future of Jerusalem

Is the ad a cheap shot? Perhaps, but both campaigns have been guilty of cheap shots. Will it have an impact on Jewish voters? Obviously the Romney camp thinks it will.

 

Lynn University in Boca Raton hosting foreign policy debate between Romney and Obama

Folks at Lynn Univeristy of been working and planning for months to get everything ready for the Oct. 22 presidential debate. 

Here's the latest media release from the Commission on Presidential Debates:

Frank J. Fahrenkopf, Jr. and Michael D. McCurry, co‐chairmen of the non‐partisan, non‐profit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), today announced formats for the presidential and vice presidential debates that feature extended discussion of major issues to be announced in advance.

The formats for the 90‐minute debates are as follows:

 First presidential debate (October 3, 2012, University of Denver, Denver, CO)

The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.

The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have   to respond.  The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic.

Vice presidential debate (October 11, 2012, Centre College, Danville, KY)

The debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics and be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each.    The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond.  The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the question.

Second presidential debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)

The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues.  Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion.  The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.

Third presidential debate (October 22, Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL)

The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate and will focus on foreign policy. 

All debates will be moderated by a single individual and will take place from 9:00‐10:30 p.m. Eastern Time.  There will be no opening statements and two‐minute closing statements in all the debates.   In all the debates except town meeting, the CPD recommends that the candidates be seated at a table with the moderator.  Moderators will be selected and announced in August.

Herald, Times and the complexity of Florida's Hispanic vote

This story originally appeared in Columbia Journalism Review.

By Brian E. Crowley

FLORIDA — One of the most wearisome elements of media coverage of the 2012 election campaign is the often trite and lazy reporting about Hispanic/Latino voters. So it was refreshing to read a story on Sunday byMiami Herald political writer Marc Caputo that looked beyond the usual caricature of such voters.

Caputo’s lede immediately let readers know that they were in for something different here:

Rep. Ana Rivas Logan’s opponents call her loads of names on the campaign trail.

But one seemed to bother her more than others: “Nicaraguan.”

“They’re making calls to the little old Cubans, telling them, ‘Don’t vote for her. She’s a Nicaraguan. Your commitment is with the Cuban vote,’” a choked-up Logan said last week about her bare-knuckle race against fellow Republican Rep. Jose Felix “Pepe” Diaz.

Welcome to Miami.

This is a place where calling the daughter of Cuban parents a “Nicaraguan” is a slur even though she was born in Nicaragua and says so on her website. Diaz denies participating in or authorizing the attack.

The fact that it was 1) used against the Cuban-American lawmaker and 2) worked enough to deeply unsettle her is a sign of the hardball politics in Miami-Dade. And it stands as a clear sign that Florida’s Hispanic vote is anything but monolithic.

Just beyond the Spanish-English language barrier is a not-so-brave world of ethnic tensions, borderline racism and nationalistic pride that will subtly play out this election season…

 

Often the media—especially the national media—concentrates its reporting about Florida Hispanics on the Cuban community. There is no question that Cuban-American voters are a critical segment of the South Florida vote. But the growing generational divide within the community is too often overlooked by reporters. Second- and third-generation Cubans tend to be less rigid about some issues than first-generation Cubans who fled the Castro regime.

But the Herald’s Caputo went well beyond that obvious difference. He delved into areas that are rarely reported. For example, he wrote:

Obama arrives in Florida, he is no Jimmy Carter

President Obama arrives in Jacksonville this afternoon to start a two-day campaign swing through the Sunshine State. Florida has not been kind to Democratic presidential candidates. Since 1952, Florida has voted for the Democratic nominee just four times in 15 elections.

Florida may be a swing state but in fact it hasn't done much swinging. Even the four Democrat victories have reasonable explanations that would suggest Democrats won more because of historical flukes than a genuine swing to the Democratic Party.

Obama to make two day, five city trip to Florida next week

President Obama brings his campaign to Florida next week, spending Thursday and Friday in the Sunshine State, Crowley Political Report has learned.

Obama will travel to Jacksonville and West Palm Beach on Thursday and spend the night in Manalapan. On Friday, Obama will travel to Fort Myers and Orlando. He will return to Washington that night.

The president's two-day trip is a clear indication that the Obama campaign is concerned about winning here. The Sunshine State is key to Obama's chances for a second term and the state is no sure thing for the Democrats.

It will be interesting to see whether U.S. Senator Bill Nelson joins the president on all or part of his trip. Nelson found out this week that winning a second term may not be as easy as many thought against likely GOP nominee U.S. Rep. Connie Mack. 

Nelson huge money advantage was wiped out when the Karl Rove group Crossroads announced it would be spending $6.4 million on the helping Mack. Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is pouring in another $1 million for Mack.

It is also a sign that Republicans believe they have a shot at defeating both Nelson and Obama here. 

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Romney's new ad calls Obama a liar

Oh my this is getting uglier and uglier. And we haven't seen the worst of it from either presidential campaign. Floridians are about to get hit with a harsh, new ad from Republican Mitt Romney that calsl Democrat Barack Obama a liar.

The ad opens with: "When a president doesn't tell the truth, how can we trust him to lead?"

In another segment, the grim male voice says: "Candidate Obama lied about Hillary Clinton" and then shifts to a Clinton sound bite they have used in other ads: "Shame on you Barack Obama."

The ad concludes with this: "Obama's dish0nest campaign: Another reason America has lost confidence in Barack Obama."

Tough stuff. And possibly effective.

 

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Is Obama's sizzle starting to fizzle?

There has been lots of gnashing of teeth over the idea that Mitt Romney just doesn't "get it"  - whatever "it" is. It is true that the Republican presidential candidate is less than inspiring. But the sizzle that was once Barack Obama is beginning to feel bit more like fizzle.

Today we learned that unemployment is still 8.2 percent. Job growth is weak. The overall economy is still shuddering. In parts of Florida, unemployment remains in double digits. Many of those who are working are making less money. Some have multiple jobs to help makes ends meet. 

Is it any wonder why so many Florida voters are in a foul mood?

The Obama campaign still seems to be struggling with a message about to improve the economy. At this point the greatest strength of the Obama campaign is the weakness of the Romney campaign.

Is anyone feeling inspired by either candidate? 

Florida voters are just weary. And the independents that both campaigns are counting on, could decide to just stay home.

There is one bright spot in the economy - top campaign consultants are making a fortune even if their work, so far, has been less than impressive.

Here's the latest television ad from Crossroads GPS:

Mitt Romney borrows Hillary Clinton

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney apparently is quite fond of Hillary Clinton. In fact, Romney thinks so highly of our nation's Secretary of State that he is starring her in his newest campaign ad.

Now, Crowley Political Report suspects that Clinton is not going to be too thrilled with this particular honor.  And you can't help but wonder whether it is wise of Romney to encourage the Clinton clan to respond.

How effective is the ad? We'll let you decide.

 

New Priorities USA ad accuses Romney of drowning companies in debt

The Barack Obama supporting Super-PAC, Priorities USA, has a new ad for the viewing pleasure of Florida voters and the folks in other swing states. 

The ad continues the theme that Mitt Romney made millions while he was at Bain Capital by pushing businesses the company acquired into deep debt.