Crowley Political Report

Sergio Bendixen disagrees with our poll analysis

Prominent pollster Sergio Bendixen of Bendixen & Amandi International disagrees with Crowley Political Report's view of recent polling of Cuban-American voters. That story, which appeared here and in Columbia Journalism Review noted considerably confusion in the reporting of polls and questioned the disparity among pollsters. I think Mr. Bendixen may have missed the point.

Since Mr. Bendixen spent time writing a lengthy rebuttal (which he added as a comment to the original story) - it seems only fair to post his reply here:

From Sergio Bendixen

When I first came to the United States from Peru in 1961, Ricky Ricardo was the only television personality I could identify with. So any time his image is used to challenge anything Cuban, I must come to his defense. 

The recent Crowley Political Report is missing some important information which has obviously clouded the judgment of its author when it comes to his conclusions. 

1.) Most - if not all - researchers and pollsters agree that if you want to accurately measure the voting behavior of a demographic group, exit polling is the best way to do it, as long as it includes interviews with absentee and other early voters. Pre-election polls cannot predict accurately which voters will show up at the polls and which voters will not. Precinct analysis of voting results cannot reveal the voting behavior of Cuban voters because there are no "pure Cuban" precincts in Miami-Dade County or any other county in the United States. The top 50 "Cuban precincts" in Miami-Dade County (according to the U. S. Census) have a substantial percentage (20% to 50%) of African American, White Anglo and non-Cuban Hispanic registered voters within them.

 2.) The only organizations that conducted an exit poll in Florida among Cuban voters were Edison Research (for the major television networks and AP), the Pew Hispanic Center and Bendixen & Amandi International (B&A: my firm). All of the other polls and studies that Mr. Crowley mentions in his report were either pre-election polls or post-election precinct analysis of Miami-Dade "Cuban precincts." Those include the FIU/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely Florida Hispanic voters conducted by Professor Eduardo Gamarra in October, the FIU post-election precinct analysis utilizing "ecological regression" methodology conducted by Professor Dario Moreno (incorrectly identified in the Crowley report as an exit poll), and the Latino Decisions "eve of the election" Florida Hispanic poll. The report also cites an electoral analysis by Professor Ben Bishin of the University of California at Riverside.

 3.) Mr. Crowley misses an obvious pattern in the data. The three statewide exit polls show extremely similar results. All of them show Obama and Romney splitting the statewide Cuban vote (Edison and Pew had Obama at 49% and Bendixen & Amandi had Obama at 48%). In other words, all three exit polls had the same finding - Cuban voters supported a Democratic presidential candidate at a historic level in 2012.

Florida, Cuban voters, the media and what went wrong

This first appeared in Columbia Journalism Review

 

By Brian E. Crowley

Somehow the Florida election is beginning to feel a bit like an episode from the old I Love Lucy comedy. Not only did the Sunshine State hang over election results for four days—and still counting in some races—but there has been forehead-slapping confusion over who won the Cuban-American vote here, by how much, and what it might mean. The confusion has been fueled by a collection of all-over-the-map poll numbers variously cited, depending on the news source, to draw premature conclusions about this unique voting population.

So let’s start with this widely repeated statement by Cuban-American Ricky Ricardo to his wife: “Lucy, you’ve got some ‘splaining’ to do.”

South Florida could end it for Obama tonight

Hillsborough may be Florida's number one swing county but regardless of what happens there, President Obama could lose the Sunshine State if he fails to get big numbers in South Florida.

In 2008, Obama got 529,000 votes from the big South Florida counties - Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Half of those votes came from one county - Broward where Obama got 255,000 votes. Miami-Dade gave him 139,000 votes and Palm Beach 135,000 votes.

Obama defeated Republican John McCain by 237,000 votes statewide. If Obama's vote count in South Florida slips below 400,000 it will be a sign that he is in big trouble. In 2000, Al Gore got on 366,000 votes from those three counties. In 2004, John Kerry got 373,000 votes. Both men lost to George W. Bush.

Other counties to watch:

In 2008 Obama won Alachua by 27,000 votes, Orange by 87,000, Leon by 36,000 and Hillborough by 36,000. If those margins start to slip, Obama could lose the state.

For Mitt Romney watch these counties where McCain won. Romney will need to hold or improve on McCain's margins: Duval, 8,000 votes, Escambia, 30,000, Indian River 11,000, Martin 11,000, Marion 19,000, Santa Rosa, 36,000, St. Johns, 34,000, St. Lucie 15,000, Lee, 28,000.

 

 

Jotkoff and Burgess Twitter squabble

In a - mine is bigger than yours - tit for tat over campaign appearances on Halloween, we learn just how competitive Democratic spokesman Eric Jotkoff and Republican spokeman Brian Burgess can be over the size of the Halloween crowd.

   Eric Jotkoff ‏@Eric_Jotkoff

Today, @MitchellObama had 4,700 come to see her in Jacksonville. Yesterday, Mitt Romney had 1,000 people show. #EnthusiasmGap

25mBrian Burgess ‏@brianjburgess

@Eric_Jotkoff @MitchellObama - LOL yesterday was Halloween, bro. You're not really that unrealistic, are you?

24mEric Jotkoff ‏@Eric_Jotkoff

@brianjburgess 2,500 people came to see Vice President Biden in Ocala, yesterday. It too was Halloween #JustSaying #NiceTry

1mBrian Burgess ‏@brianjburgess

@Eric_Jotkoff give it up. Biden's event was mid-afternoon, Romney's right in the middle of Trick-or-Treat, and still 1,000 showed up.

Obama ad uses GM and Chrysler to slam Romney

This Obama campaign ad is a counter to a Romney ad that says American auto jobs are being moved to China. In the Obama ad, quote are used from GM and Chryler debunking the Romney ad. 

From the Obama ad: "GM calls latest Romney auto ad, 'politics at its cynical worst.'"  Chryler calls Romney's assertion "not true." The Obama ad tosses in PolitiFact and the Washington Post for good measure.

 

Romney campaign ad appeals to Florida Catholics

In this ad, Mitt Romney's campaign makes a direct appeal to Florida's Catholic voters. In fact, the ad seems to specifically target young Catholics. 

The young woman in the ad notes that the 2000 election was decided by 537 Florida votes. She goes on to say "that is less than 2 people in every parish in Florida."

She concludes by saying "let the Catholic vote be heard. Vote for religious freedom....."

 

Florida official says 2.27 million votes already cast Dems lead

Chris Cate, commuications director for Florida Secretary of State, just tweeted the lastest election results:

"Total Votes Cast: 2.27 Million. Early Votes: 817k w/ 291k GOP & 392k DEM. Absentee Votes: 1.45 M w/ 635k GOP & 574k DEM."

Absentee ballots are nearly doubling early votes at this point. Democrats have a 100,000 vote edge in early votes while Republicans hold a 61,000 vote edge in absentee ballots cast. What does it all mean? Too early to tell. Early voting continues for the next five days.

One trend may be emerging....early voting appears to be below 2008 levels.

According to a 2008 story in USA Today: About 4.3 million people cast votes during early voting and absentee balloting; Democrats outnumbered Republicans by almost 360,000 among those voters, but it was unknown how they voted.

Should Democrats be worried? Perhaps.

Is Obama making us the United State of China?

Yup, back with another new ad from Karl Rove and American Crossroads. In this little ditty, Rove would like voters to believe that we are bowing to China - you know where all those iPhone are built.

Apparently if you own an iPhone or other item made in China you are contributing to our demise. Start tossing that stuff out.

 

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

 

American Crossroads and small businesses

Karl Rove is very busy lad these days. If Obama wins, Rove and his American Crossroads Super PAC would be among the big losers. Here's another new ad.

 

 

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

Clint Eastwood does a 30 for Romney

Most celebrities that you meet during a campaign are very passionate about the candidate or cause they support but frequently don't really have a clue. They tend to be strident and ill-informed. There are certainly exceptions. 

They also tend to perform better for a candidate when they have a script. You saw Clint Eastwood at the Republican National Convention without a script. Here you can see him with one. Is he the execption to the ususal celebrity endorser?

This ad comes from the Karl Rove Super Pac - American Crossroads.

Follow us on Twitter @crowleyreport

Tampa Bay Times endorses Barack Obama

No one should be surprised that the Tampa Bay Times has endorsed President Obama for a second term. The newspaper is long known for its thoughtful, liberal editorial view and the odds of Mitt Romney getting the endorsement were always nil.

Still, one should take the Times endorsement seriously. While the I-4 corridor is vital to the presidential election - no section is more vital than the one that goes through Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.

Florida newspaper endorsements are evenly split with Romney picking up the Orlando Sentinel yesterday.

It is a shame that neither newspaper wanted to wait until the finish of Monday's debate. 

Some excerpts from the Times editorial:

This is not the time to reverse course and return to the failed policies of the past. Without hesitation, the Tampa Bay Times recommends Barack Obama for re-election as president.

...

By many measures, the economy is improving steadily even if growth remains painfully slow. There have been 31 straight months of job growth, and more than 5 million private sector jobs have been created. The unemployment rate is down to 7.8 percent — not great, but the same as when Obama took office.

...

There is still too much economic pain, but America is better off than most of the rest of the industrialized world.

Orlando Sentinel endorses Romney does it matter

Republicans may hate the "main stream media" but right now they are in love with the Orlando Sentinel which endorsed Mitt Romney for president and slammed President Obama for what it describes as his lack of leadership.

Does the endorsement matter?

Yes.

Especially if Romney and his surrogrates move quickly to get ads up on television touting the Sentinel's endorsement.  Unless another major Florida newspaper endorses Obama in the next couple of days, Romney will have bragging rights all to himself.

And with Florida's fragile voters it could make a difference. Florida is no sure thing for the Democrats and Obama's lead has always been tenuous. 

The Sentinel may help Romney gain momentum and sway independent voters in the critical I-4 corridor.

Some excerpts from the endorsement:

We have little confidence that Obama would be more successful managing the economy and the budget in the next four years. For that reason, though we endorsed him in 2008, we are recommending Romney in this race.

...

Other presidents have succeeded even with the other party controlling Capitol Hill. Democrat Bill Clinton presided over an economic boom and balanced the budget working with Republicans. Leaders find a way.

...

The next president is likely to be dealing with a Congress where at least one, if not both, chambers are controlled by Republicans. It verges on magical thinking to expect Obama to get different results in the next four years.

Does Cuba really matter in the presidential campaign?

This first appeared in Columbia Journalism Review.

By Brian E. Crowley

FLORIDA — Does Cuba really matter?

If asked that question by a reporter, both President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney would likely reply: Yes, absolutely.

Unfortunately, the question of whether Cuba matters—and how, and to whom—is rarely explored in the media, even as Cuba’s role in shaping politics in this key swing state is taken for granted.

Instead, most reporters take the easy way out, especially those from outside Florida. The reporting will generally be something like this:

Presidential candidate X came to South Florida today to assure Cuban-Americans that if elected he will strongly oppose the Castro regime and refuse to lift the embargo until human rights and freedom are restored. Florida’s Cuban exile community is one of this swing-state’s most important voting blocs.

This is careless and cliché-laden reporting. And while President Obama’s shifts in policy and rhetoric have introduced a slightly different frame, too much is obscured when reporters accept politicians’ sound bites, whether it’s Mitt Romney’s declaration that “the regime will feel the full weight of American resolve” or Obama’s promise that he will “send a signal that we are prepared to show flexibility and not be stuck in a cold war mentality dating back to when I was born.”

The United States embargo against Cuba is a complex topic that creates deep divisions in Congress and, perhaps more importantly, within the Cuban-American community. Agricultural interests and other industries outside of Florida have long questioned the validity of continuing the embargo—but have largely failed in their efforts to shift the policy because of the influence of hard-core, pro-embargo Cuban-Americans who long ago learned how to wield political power.

Obama and Romney have more courage than Nelson and Mack

No matter what you think about Barack Obama and Mitt Romney you have to give them credit - they are willing to debate each other. Not once but three times before a national audience. And as much as their strategists may try to control the event, once the camera is on - the two men are on their own.

Everything is on the line for them. Whichever one of them loses this election, it will be the end of his political career. We may not want to have a moment of silence for them at the start of this first debate but we might want to have a silent moment of respect for this important element of our democracy.

Unfortunately, the only silence in Florida is coming from the candidates. Florida's U.S. Senate candidates -  Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie Mack - have agreed to just a single debate.

After much squabbling, they will get together on Oct 17 for a debate that will be broadcast on many Florida television stations. One debate. That's it. 

That's wrong.

Florida's voters deserve better. Our politicians enjoy telling us about their courage and leadership but cowering behind 30-second political ads is neither courageous nor the sign of a leader. 

Sadly, Nelson and Mack are not the only pols who fear debates. We see it in congressional races and local races. It's a shame. Even personal contact with voters is limited largely to friendly crowds who already agree. 

Florida voters deserve better. They deserve to hear from their candidates. They deserve to have more than one debate. 

Florida media goes to extremes at Republican National Convention

This first appeared today in Columbia Journalism Review

By Brian E. Crowley

TAMPA — On Wednesday, the morning after the first night of the Republican National Convention, the front page of the Fort Lauderdale-based Sun Sentinel—the paper with the fourth-largest daily circulation in Florida—had not a single story about the GOP gathering. Not even a tease to inside coverage. There was nothing on the front about Ann Romney’s speech. There was nothing about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s speech, or that of any other speaker. The lede story was about problems with school bus drivers. A top-of-the-fold feature package was about a 17-year-old girl who is a high school quarterback.

Things were very different in Tampa, 264 miles to the northwest, where the GOP has gathered this week. Here, the Tampa Bay Times and Politico teamed together to publish a four-section package of more 50 stories and dozens of graphics, photos, and sidebar tidbits. It spread over 32 pages. Eight of those pages were taken up by a paid political advertisement for the American Clean Skies Foundation (the organization promotes the production of natural gas in shale rock); the remaining 24 were largely filled with convention coverage.

Stories ranged from speech coverage to an interesting analysis of the Republican Party that Mitt Romney is about to lead. There were articles about the Florida delegation bus being delayed for hours, problems with traffic, celebrity sightings, and even how the convention has had little impact on kids going to school. To say that there was no stone left unturned is to put it mildly.

RNC, the War Room, Jon Voight and more

This first appeared today in Columbia Journalism Review

By Brian E. Crowley

TAMPA — In a large room, just off the main floor of the Tampa Convention Center, there are about 100 men and women sitting quietly at computers looking very much like employees of the major news organizations covering the 2012 Republican National Convention.

They are not. This is the media war room of the Republican National Committee and the Mitt Romney campaign. Many of the folks inside are volunteers who are assigned to monitor and “assist” various media organizations. They write news releases, do research, keep track of story trends, and reach out to reporters either to inform or push back, depending on the circumstances.

Each network and major cable outlet has been assigned its own RNC war roomer. There are folks responsible for regional news organizations. Others are there to monitor major print organizations. This is also where much of the rapid response operation—for example, a quick reaction (emailed press release) to an attack by the Obama campaign—takes place.

On this morning, the delayed opening day of the convention, everyone appears busy but not frantic. I take the time to chat with a couple of folks including GOP operatives Mark Pfeifle and Kristy Campbell.

As the media continues its march to the convention center (where many of them file) and the Tampa Bay Times Forum (where the convention action is, about a third of a mile from the convention center), it is not likely to stay quiet in this room much longer. And while reporters like to think no one puts words in their mouths, the fact is that much of the rhetoric that will come out of this convention will be crafted in—and sent forth from—the war room.

* * *

Wandering over toward the Politico work station in the media filing center (across the hall from the war room), I am amused watching a photographer approached by one of Politico’s PR folks. The photographer wants to get a shot of Politico’s convention operation but the PR woman is a bit cautious, asking what kind of story he is doing. He gets his picture, but she would still like to hear back about the story. The photographer smiles, says thank you, and moves on.

* * *

In the main convention center hallway, a clutch of reporters is gathered around actor Jon Voight. While Voight has made some great movies—Midnight Cowboy, Deliverance,Mission: Impossible—when he is just playing himself he sounds mostly like an aging crank who fears the government is on the verge of collapse. With a slow start to the convention, he is one of hate the mainstream media gaggle who wanders the hall hoping to be interviewed. It is not clear why reporters continue to oblige him—but, they do.

* * *

Hurricane Isaac continues to have an impact on convention coverage with CNN and Fox News having relocated big news names (Anderson Cooper and Shep Smith, respectively) from Tampa to New Orleans. Parts of South Florida had serious flooding and some Florida television crews stayed home to cover the damage.

Still, there are thousands of credentialed journalists here. More than enough to keep the media war room—and Jon Voight—quite busy.

RNC and bad hair, Iran, Isaac and urinal ads

Overheard in the lobby of the downtown Tampa Hyatt where the Wisconsin delegation is staying for the Republican National Convention:

A woman, her hair a mess - "Now I believe there is a Republican war on women. Look what this place does to my hair."

There may not have been much conventioneering because of Hurricane Isaac but as conventions always do, there were some choice moments. 

A few tidbits and observations:

To say the police presence here is noticeable is to put it mildly. Tampa has turned into an armed camp. This Tweet sums it up:

@Mrsralphreed: When I lived in Iran under martial law...security was not as bad as it is at the @GOPconvention!!!

Poor Mitt Romney. Not only does the Republican nominee have to share coverage with Hurricane Isaac but he also has been forced to give up air time to breaking news that Snooki had a baby.

Apparently some journalists think talking about Romney being a Mormon is a sensitive topic. CNN was exploring the issue with these words on the screen -The "M" word. 

The "M" word? Really?

Meanwhile, the National Federation of Pachyderm Clubs is setting up shop at the convention. We don't think it is a "Save the Elephants" conservation society.

Young TV reporter, "I'm looking for a delegate to interview are you a delegate?" Sorry. No.

Remember this time four years ago when Sarah Palin was the big star of the convention?

Tampa television station on-air message to convention delegates:

"We are the lightning capitol of the world"

"Humidity is not your friend"

"Don’t feed the seagulls"

Gingrich just walked by with his mini entourage....and with the look of a man who desperately wants to be important again.

From National Journal: “The split screen is a killer,” said Ari Fleischer (a reference to convention and hurricane coverage on sames days).

One steps inside the men's room of a very nice hotel and finds an elegant looking, postcard size, invitation featuring all the symbolism of the convention. The invite is to a downtown Tampa bar. Each urinal has an invite carefully placed on each urinal.

Take one with you?

 

Charlie Crist the ambassador to Greece

One thing former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist has always had a knack for is wheedling his way into the spotlight. The former Republican turned independent and soon-to-be Democrat, has more than ticked off a few folks at the Republican National Convention with his endorsement Sunday of President Obama.

Today, he announced that he will be speaking at that Democratic National Convention. This, needless to say, is not lowering the temperature of those Republicans who simply loathe Crist. One thing is certain - Crist could care less.

There is a great deal of speculation that Crist is positioning himself to run for govenor against incumbent Republican Rick Scott in 2014. It would be a fascinating contest. And when you look around the Florida Democratic Party, one is hardpressed to find an alternative.

On the other hand, perhaps Crist simply wants a second-term Obama to name him ambassador to Greece.

When it comes to Charlie Crist, nothing should suprise you.

Republican National Convention and a wince

The story below appears in Columbia Journalism Review

By Brian E. Crowley

TAMPA — Wince. That was my first reaction as I started to read a Sunday storyabout the Republican National Convention by Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith and Politico national political editor Charles Mahtesian.

It began as if written by a copy writer for the marketing department of the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Welcome to Florida, Republican conventioneers.

Let’s not mince words: You are in the most important state in America.

You already know this is America’s biggest battleground and that if Mitt Romney loses our 29 electoral votes Barack Obama is almost certainly re-elected. But with Florida it’s more than that.

This is a mega state so diverse that it mirrors the nation’s moods, sentiments and demographics. Florida is America—today’s America and tomorrow’s.

“It’s become a nation-state, just as New York and California were at their peak and Ohio was a century ago,” said historian Richard Norton Smith, a venerable chronicler of American politics.

 

Frankly, if I did not already know that Smith is one of Florida’s best political writers I might have stopped there. Fortunately, while the over-the-top prose continued to pop up occasionally, Smith and Mahtesian quickly redeem themselves with a well-written and informative piece that outshines most of the competition.

Charlie Crist endorses Barack Obama, rips GOP

Tropical Storm Crist came squalling into Tampa Bay Sunday with a column in the Tampa Bay Times endorsing Barack Obama for president and questioning the "extreme right" of the Republican Party.

Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist left the GOP two years ago in an ill-fated effort to win the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Marco Rubio. Crist, who at the time was considered a moderate Republican (depsite his nickname Chain Gang Charlie), is now loathed by the GOP establishment.

There is wide speculation that Crist will try to make a comeback by running for governor as a Democrat in 2014. It would be an amazing trick if Crist can pull it off. Others believe that Crist has no intention of getting back into politics and is simply enjoying an opporturnity to taunt his tormentors.

Crist's endorsement comes as the Republican Natonal Convention delegates await the arrival of Hurricane Isaac in the Tampa Bay area. The convention organizers pulled the plug on Monday's opening events because of the storm. 

In his column, Crist writes:

As Republicans gather in Tampa to nominate Mitt Romney, Americans can expect to hear tales of how President Obama has failed to work with their party or turn the economy around.

But an element of their party has pitched so far to the extreme right on issues important to women, immigrants, seniors and students that they've proven incapable of governing for the people. Look no further than the inclusion of the Akin amendment in the Republican Party platform, which bans abortion, even for rape victims.

The truth is that the party has failed to demonstrate the kind of leadership or seriousness voters deserve.

Read the entire Tampa Bay Times column here.